Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

It's certainly going to be a fascinating period for all involved...and I'm not just talking on this forum.

 

Just to give an idea of how little even the likes of NASA are really able to project in to the future, this article provides interesting reading: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2847.htm

 

Elongated cycles were certainly the trademark of historical minimum periods, though they are by no means a feature exclusive to them either.

 

Ultimately, right now it is a very brave person to call the exact progression beyond this point for the next 2 years or so, though I would suspect we are beyond the the maximum period now, contrary to certain reports.

 

Of course we then have to interpolate the assumptions we make with whether there is enough strong evidence of the link between NW European winters and Solar Activity. On a VERY small scale, I would argue that the peaks aligned around the winters of 2011-12 and 2013-14 speak for themselves, but two winters in isolation hardly provides a credible sample size on a seasonal basis.

 

On more of a decadal basis though there is certainly more encouraging evidence for the link between extensive periods of low solar activity and colder NW European winters, and the period of 2008-2013 should hopefully stand as testament to that. I'm sure we all suspect there is more than one factor at play here, but it seems to have a fairly distinctive effect at least.

 

As ever only time will tell but the next couple of years could set a precedent for the years, and perhaps even the decades, ahead, as we start to get a glimpse of whether the sun really is entering a slumber.

 

Happy sun-spotting.

 

SK

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Well even spaceweather today cannot count a sunspot so for them a spotless day the first in their counting for a couple of years

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

DEEP QUIET: Solar activity is very low. July 17th brought the first spotless day in nearly three years. The face of the sun was completely blank and the sunspot number dropped to zero. Now, however, two small sunspots are emerging, circled in this image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

Posted Image

These diminutive regions do not neccesarily herald an uptick in solar activity. The sun's global X-ray flux is still 10 times lower than it was two weeks ago when sunspots were abundant. Moreover, neither of the new sunspots have the kind of complex magnetic field that leads to flares. NOAA forecasters estimate the odds of an M-flare today to be no more than 1%. 

A note about spotless days: Before July 17, 2014, the previous spotless day was August 14, 2011, a gap of nearly 3 years. It is notable that overall 2011 was a year of relatively high solar activity with multiple X-flares. A brief period of spotlessness does not necessarily signal sustained quiet.

 

http://spaceweather.com/

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Hi Polar, is this your prediction?

 

Either way, I am thrilled that we recorded the first spotless day in 3 years!

 

Karyo

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Update from http://spaceweather.com/

 

 2011 was a year of relatively high solar activity with multiple X-flares; the spotless sun was just a temporary intermission. 2014 will probably be remembered the same way. As new sunspots emerge and grow, the Solar Max of 2014 will pick up where it left off a couple weeks ago when sunspots were abundant. However, because no one can predict the solar cycle, this "All Quiet Event" is worth monitoring.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

This is only the second time since cycle 9 that first spotless day has occurred in the same year as the maximum. Max was in February 1906 and first spotless day in October 1906.

 

There have been many similarities to cycle 14 - this is yet another one.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

THE ALL QUIET EVENT: The "All Quiet Event" is still underway. For the 5th day in a row, solar activity is extremely low, with weak solar wind, no flares, and a sunspot number near zero. NOAA forecasters put the odds of a significant flare today at no more than 1%. http://spaceweather.com/

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

We are close to squeezing an extra spotless day from this quiet spell!

 

www.spaceweather.com

 

Karyo

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012

July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.

Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.

"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado. 

Posted Image
A ScienceCast video recounts the near-miss of a solar superstorm in July 2012.

Baker, along with colleagues from NASA and other universities, published a seminal study of the storm in the December 2013 issue of the journal Space Weather.  Their paper, entitled "A major solar eruptive event in July 2012," describes how a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) tore through Earth orbit on July 23, 2012.  Fortunately Earth wasn't there.  Instead, the storm cloud hit the STEREO-A spacecraft.

"I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did," says Baker.  "If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

We are close to squeezing an extra spotless day from this quiet spell!

 

www.spaceweather.com

 

Karyo

 

Those images are always a little out of date. The latest intensitygram is updated every 15 minutes or so here:

 

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg

 

(The date and UTC time are in the bottom left hand corner)

 

The SIDC (who maintain the International Sunspot Number) provide an estimated count for the current day which is updated as the observers report in:

 

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/eisnplot

 

The new SIDC site is terrific with a wealth of info.

Edited by Yarmy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

STRANGE SITUATION: In the middle of Solar Max, the sun has slipped into a state that resembles Solar Minimum. Sunspot numbers are low; the sun's X-ray and radio output are depressed; and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of solar flares during the next 24 hours. The quiet could be disturbed during the weekend, however, by the expected return of two old sunspots currently transiting the farside of the sun. http://spaceweather.com/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Sunspots are on the up-tick, Now at 145..

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

INCOMING STORM CLOUD: Yesterday, July 30th, a dark magnetic filament on the sun erupted and hurled part of itself into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory tracked a bright CME moving away from the blast site at 700 km/s:

 

Posted Image

 

http://spaceweather.com/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

 

MINOR STORM WARNING: A CME is heading for Earth. The cloud was hurled into space on July 30th when a magnetic filament on the sun erupted, and it appears to be on course to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Aug. 2nd when the CME arrives. http://spaceweather.com/

 

Sunspot count up to 165.. 

 

Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

It's certainly going to be a fascinating period for all involved...and I'm not just talking on this forum.

 

Just to give an idea of how little even the likes of NASA are really able to project in to the future, this article provides interesting reading: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2847.htm

 

Elongated cycles were certainly the trademark of historical minimum periods, though they are by no means a feature exclusive to them either.

 

Ultimately, right now it is a very brave person to call the exact progression beyond this point for the next 2 years or so, though I would suspect we are beyond the the maximum period now, contrary to certain reports.

 

Of course we then have to interpolate the assumptions we make with whether there is enough strong evidence of the link between NW European winters and Solar Activity. On a VERY small scale, I would argue that the peaks aligned around the winters of 2011-12 and 2013-14 speak for themselves, but two winters in isolation hardly provides a credible sample size on a seasonal basis.

 

On more of a decadal basis though there is certainly more encouraging evidence for the link between extensive periods of low solar activity and colder NW European winters, and the period of 2008-2013 should hopefully stand as testament to that. I'm sure we all suspect there is more than one factor at play here, but it seems to have a fairly distinctive effect at least.

 

As ever only time will tell but the next couple of years could set a precedent for the years, and perhaps even the decades, ahead, as we start to get a glimpse of whether the sun really is entering a slumber.

 

Happy sun-spotting.

 

SK

 

 

 

We know there are multiple factors which affect the UK weather, solar activity being only one, however, I do remember seeing a chart which showed the correlation between warmer than average winters in the UK at least coinciding with periods when solar cycle activity was at its peak. 1990 saw solar activity reach its peak, and the UK recorded 3 very mild winters around this time, incidentally winter 89/90 was exceptionally wet in Scotland as well. The next cycle peaked in 2000, and what did we see another very mild winter in 1999/2000 and record rainfall in the Autumn. We have just seen a peak in activity in this cycle and we have seen another very mild record breaking wet winter, also as you say an increase in solar activity occurred in 2011/2012 and we saw a wet mild winter then and some warm months in general. Low solar activity periods were the mid 80's - cold winters and chilly summers, mid 90's again colder winters in 95/96 and first half of 96/97 and more recently in 2008-2010 coinciding with colder winters and cool summers. This can't be just a coincidence can it?

 

It would be good for someone to post a chart showing the cycle periods of the last 100 years with mean CET values plotted as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Sunspot count now at 178..

 

Posted Image

 

MINOR STORM WARNING, CANCELLED: A CME expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on August 2nd has not arrived. The tardy cloud is either off target or moving more slowly than forecasters thought, or both. The chance of a geomagnetic storm this weekend is waning.  http://spaceweather.com/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Interesting article describing how we are in a solar lull similar to a Gleissberg type solar minimum http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/new-paper-argues-current-lull-in-solar.html

Edited by keithlucky
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Interesting article describing how we are in a solar lull similar to a Gleissberg type solar minimum http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/new-paper-argues-current-lull-in-solar.html

Don't know much about hockeyschik, keith...But I'm really feeling the effects of Solar-induced global cooling right now. Great innit!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

Don't know much about hockeyschik, keith...But I'm really feeling the effects of Solar-induced global cooling right now. Great innit!

 

Dunno about global cooling but after what, 30-odd years of being told we're warming, I've yet to feel the effects of that,too. What utter,utter cobblers we are fed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

MOSTLY QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR2134 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for significant eruptions. However, like every other sunspot that has crossed the solar disk in recent weeks, this one seems reluctant to erupt. NOAA forecasters estimate only a 20% chance of M-flaresduring the next 24 hours as the month-long spell of low solar activty continues. http://spaceweather.com/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

right i am a bit baffled here and I am wondering if these sunspot numbers we are getting are correct below I have yesterdays sun on the left and on the right todays sun yesterday had a count of 119 and today we have a count of 158 even though today it looks like we have less on the visible disk than we had yesterday

 

post-18233-0-30982600-1407495967_thumb.gpost-18233-0-77890100-1407495974_thumb.g

 

it might be valid but it just looks odd to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

Hi Buried

 

They count every single teeny-weeny dot on the Sun's surface these days, so even if the major spots are deteoriating, the sunspot count will be higher if there is more evidence of tiny sunspots reaching the surface.

 

This has been one of the major bugbears in this thread about records for the current solar cycle: that sunspot numbers appear higher now simply because there are satellites that can detect far smaller ones than in the past, and this makes it difficult to compare like with like between this cycle and previous ones. I'm sure that NASA/NOAA do a like-for-like comparison, but it doesn't appear to make it to their public pages.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Both the Boulder and SIDC sunspot numbers are calculated from the observations of teams of volunteers all over the world (often amateurs), who take their telescopes, go into their back gardens and count every spot they can see. You can actually volunteer to do this yourself and make a contribution to solar science! Each observer has an adjustment factor to account for the capability of their telescope etc, and in the case of the International Sunspot Number (the SIDC one), it is all calibrated to a reference station in Locarno in Switzerland.

 

There's a wealth of information here to allay any fears:

 

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/faq-page

 

There is an ongoing initiative to make the sunspot historic record as accurate as it possibly can be:

 

http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home

 

The SIDC site is very cool, because you can see the current estimate for the day's sunspot number change as the observations come in:

 

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/eisnplot

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Raunds, Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Warm if possible but a little snow is nice.
  • Location: Raunds, Northants

You could also go to the laymans sunspot count here where they continue with the Wolf method.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...