Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

 

EMERGING SUNSPOTS: Over the weekend, active sunspots AR1967 and AR1968 rotated off the solar disk. However, the chance of flares has not decreased very much. Three new active regions have popped up to take their place:

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

 

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar activity is at high levels.

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Cheshire Freeze]

 Yes cycle 25 is predicted to be very quiet but we should remember that this cycle compared to the last few is also very quiet so heading into a solar minimum not seen in our lifetimes very interesting times ahead

 

I was talking to my dad about this the other day. I think we may be on the brink of a major climatic shift. The warning signs are there and have been there for the past few years. I'm talking about the huge swings in weather across the globe- from one side of the pendulum to the other. Traditionally a tell tale sign that something is about to happen. Dad believes we'll be shivering within 10 -15 years.

[Polar Maritime]

I was talking to my dad about this the other day. I think we may be on the brink of a major climatic shift. The warning signs are there and have been there for the past few years. I'm talking about the huge swings in weather across the globe- from one side of the pendulum to the other. Traditionally a tell tale sign that something is about to happen. Dad believes we'll be shivering within 10 -15 years.

 

Your Dad must be extremely old to be able to pick up a "traditional tell tale sign that we are due a major climatic shift"... ?

 

Anyhow back to Solar activity, Activity is continuing high levels.

 

AURORAS FOR VALENTINE'S DAY? Three CMEs are heading for Earth. Individually they are minor clouds. However, by striking Earths magnetic field in quick succession on Feb 14-15, they could cause significant geomagnetic activity around the poles. 

 

CHANCE OF FLARES: Growing sunspot AR1974 is crackling with M-class solar flares and poses a threat for even stronger X-class eruptions. 

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Cheshire Freeze]

Your Dad must be extremely old to be able to pick up a "traditional tell tale sign that we are due a major climatic shift"... ?

 

 

I was talking to him about recent climatic trends. I led the discussion but he whole heartedly agreed with everything I was saying. I've read that historically (evidenced within natural sources such as tree rings etc), periods of sudden climatic change were preceded by wild swings between extremes. Is that not what we're seeing across the world at the minute? Added to that the strange behaviour of the sun and we could perhaps be a little bit curious as to just what awaits us in the not too distant future?

 

It's the same conversation I had with a senior geography lecturer who was also convinced that we would be headed into the freezer very soon.

Edited February 14, 2014 by CreweCold

[UV-RAY]

I was talking to him about recent climatic trends. I led the discussion but he whole heartedly agreed with everything I was saying. I've read that historically (evidenced within natural sources such as tree rings etc), periods of sudden climatic change were preceded by wild swings between extremes. Is that not what we're seeing across the world at the minute? Added to that the strange behaviour of the sun and we could perhaps be a little bit curious as to just what awaits us in the not too distant future?

 

It's the same conversation I had with a senior geography lecturer who was also convinced that we would be headed into the freezer very soon.

I think the very same as the evidence for such an event is mounting daily IMO, but I would say that such events will be certainly be global and not just effecting the NH, with global temps starting to decline within the next 5 years.

[Polar Maritime]

I agree to the point of when you include Man Made factors, as you say "be a little bit curious as to just what awaits us in the not too distant future". And as we have seen from past solar cycle's this is not strange behaviour we are seeing from our Sun, it just takes a little longer to come round with-in it's pattern compared to it's normal cycle, but the correlation between the Earth and the Sun effecting our atmosphere is certainly something Science is starting to take more seriously granted. 

Edited February 14, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 15th in response to three incoming CMEs. The first two, which left the sun on Feb. 11th, have probably merged in transit to form a single "cannibal CME" more potent than either of its constituents.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited February 15, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[BornFromTheVoid]

I was talking to him about recent climatic trends. I led the discussion but he whole heartedly agreed with everything I was saying. I've read that historically (evidenced within natural sources such as tree rings etc), periods of sudden climatic change were preceded by wild swings between extremes. Is that not what we're seeing across the world at the minute? Added to that the strange behaviour of the sun and we could perhaps be a little bit curious as to just what awaits us in the not too distant future?

 

It's the same conversation I had with a senior geography lecturer who was also convinced that we would be headed into the freezer very soon.

 

Can you give us that senior Geography lecturers name?

[knocker]

I remain to be convinced of this considering  the energy change seems so little. And does the temp trend fit that irradiance graph?

 

Do Variations in the Solar Cycle Affect Our Climate System?

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/

[Polar Maritime]

I was talking to him about recent climatic trends. I led the discussion but he whole heartedly agreed with everything I was saying. I've read that historically (evidenced within natural sources such as tree rings etc), periods of sudden climatic change were preceded by wild swings between extremes. Is that not what we're seeing across the world at the minute? Added to that the strange behaviour of the sun and we could perhaps be a little bit curious as to just what awaits us in the not too distant future?

 

It's the same conversation I had with a senior geography lecturer who was also convinced that we would be headed into the freezer very soon.

 

[UV-RAY]

This is quite  an interesting article on the present cycle which these guys called correctly and the next one.

 

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-CdeJ-HN-Sun-climate-NS-5-1112.pdf

[Polar Maritime]

[Crepuscular Ray]

Anyone up in Shetland or the Orkneys got clear skies at the moment? According to NOAA/POES, you should currently be able to see aurorae to the north.

[Polar Maritime]

ANOTHER CME IMPACT: For the second time in 24 hours, a CME has hit Earth's magnetic field. The impact on Feb. 20th at ~0300 UT re-energized a subsiding geomagnetic storm that sparked bright auroras on the19th. As Earth's magnetic field reverberates from this second blow, auroras are spreading around the Arctic Circle and possibly down toward lower latitudes. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[BornFromTheVoid]

This is quite  an interesting article on the present cycle which these guys called correctly and the next one.

 

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-CdeJ-HN-Sun-climate-NS-5-1112.pdf

 

Where is the evidence that they called it correctly?

 

That paper also states that a Maunder and even Dalton minimum conditions are unlikely this century as we're as the wrong phase of the 2,300 year cycle.

[Gael_Force]

Where is the evidence that they called it correctly?

 

That paper also states that a Maunder and even Dalton minimum conditions are unlikely this century as we're as the wrong phase of the 2,300 year cycle.

 

Have a look at this table for the predictions. They forecast 68.

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Have a look at this table for the predictions. They forecast 68.

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

 

Cheers. Seems that prediction was made at the end of 2008, by which time, the majority of predictions were for a quiet SC 24.

[Polar Maritime]

 

STORMY SPACE WEATHER: Space weather around Earth is stormy--and might get stormier in the days ahead. Our planet's magnetic field is reverberating from the second CME impact in as many days. According to NOAA forecasters, another CME could arrive late in the day on Feb. 20th followed by another on Feb. 22nd. For the most part, these CME impacts are minor and/or glancing. However, their combined effect is significant. A G1-class geomagnetic storm is now in progress so high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Northernlights]

Aurora across the  Moray Firth to the north tonight one of the better ones of this winter but not outstanding.

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks Northernlights ! A photo here I found...

 

 

Taken by Alan C Tough on February 23, 2014 @ Hopeman Beach, Moray, Scotland

Edited February 24, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[karyo]

Any thoughts on when the sun will start to quieten down again?

I assume we have now passed the maximum for this cycle.

 

Karyo