Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[The PIT]

A more recent study shows that quakes and volcanic eruptions increase during low activity of the sun. http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/12/john-l-casey-the-solar-seismic-connection/

[GeorgeWX]

Noaa's nightly forecast gives initial analysis to this evening's M class flare. They estimate the speed of the erupting cloud to be 1200-1400km/s and anticipate it's arrival late tomorrow. In terms of earth effects they anticipate minor to major storming with severe storm periods. A very open ended geomagnetic storm prediction once again.

Nasa's gsfc predicts the impact will occur on Monday near 18:00.

Right in between the two times is my guess. Late AM or early PM on Monday. Looking at available imagery it's looking like there is a dense component of the eruption heading our way. If so, higher wind density = brighter and more colourful aurora (blues, reds etc). It could be a good one.

Let's not forget that this cme is likely to arrive at the tail end of the cme related to yesterdays M6 flare (gets confusing now!). I have a strong feeling that this second event will arrive with more energy compared to the first with major to severe storm periods during the cme passage and a likely planetery Kp of 7 or higher.

Edit: Within the last few hours we see two new sunspot regions emerging over the eastern limb.

Today's sun at 22:45

Edited March 10, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

M*8.4 SOLAR FLARE + CME RECORDED ON 10th March 2012. IT'S EARTH DIRECTED

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL4XLenMFZA&feature=plcp

Edited March 11, 2012 by yamkin

[Polar Maritime]

INCOMING CME: A CME launched from the sun on March 9th is nearing Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). This is not a particularly potent CME. Nevertheless, high-latitude geomagnetic storms are possible when it arrives. Aurora alerts: text, phone.

WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful mate-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. During the flare, New Mexico amateur astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of radio bursts at 21 and 28 MHz:

Dynamic spectrum courtesy Wes Greenman, Alachua County, Florida

The roaring sounds you just heard are caused by shock waves plowing through the sun's atmosphere in the aftermath of the explosion. "There is incredible complexity in the waveforms," notes Ashcraft. "This is a recording of one of the most turbulent events in all of Nature!"

In addition, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr), possibly sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms.

After passing Earth, the CME will also hit the Mars Science Lab (MSL) spacecraft on March 13th followed by Mars itself on March 14th. Mars rover Curiosity onboard MSL might get some

as the cloud passes by.

[Methuselah]

The strength of Sun’s magnetosphere modulates how much cosmic radiation reaches the atmosphere.

In 2007, an experiment by the Danish National Space Centre in Copenhagen, using a particle accelerator, found that cosmic rays, colliding with molecules in the atmosphere produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons (Based on cloud experiments, but proved cosmic ray penetration). Cosmic ray variations correlate with geomagnetic storms, which changes the ionospheric currents and triggering of seismic activities. The mechanism of the cosmic Sun-Earth connection on environment of the Earth has been established by correlation studies of cosmic ray variation with geophysical variables of the Sun.

Some useful links:

http://georgewashing...-influence.html

http://science.nasa....ul_spacequakes/

So what is the mechanism, then? Correlation does not prove causation....

[Polar Maritime]

Earlier this week the largest solar flare in years produced a coronal mass ejection that set up a fantastic viewing of the Aurora Borealis.

The U.S. Air Force captured the stunning lightshow over Joint Base Elmendor-Richardson in Alaska on Thursday, March 8.

U.S. Air Force photo/Justin Connaher

U.S. Air Force photo/Justin Connaher

U.S. Air Force photo/Justin Connaher

U.S. Air Force photo/Justin Connaher

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/aurora-borealis-pictures-2012-2012-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29#ixzz1onlfpjg0

[yamkin]

So what is the mechanism, then? Correlation does not prove causation....

Please read links I posted before.

'The PIT' also supplied a very good link for you.

Edited March 11, 2012 by yamkin

[yamkin]

*****TWO EARTHBOUND CME'S*****

Awaiting clarification about a new Earthbound CME

Edited March 11, 2012 by yamkin

[yamkin]

NEW EARTHBOUND CME - ETA 13th MARCH 2012

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

[Methuselah]

Please read links I posted before.

'The PIT' also supplied a very good link for you.

I was hoping that you would explain??

[yamkin]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS

Kp Index is at level 6

Scale of G2

Moderate

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.

[kar999]

I was hoping that you would explain??

Pete, I think there is a lot of science regarding the sun and solar cycles, and the interaction between earthquakes and indeed the weather that even the "expert" scientists do not understand. We all witnessed the "experts" moving predictions for the end of the last solar miniumum and cycle 24.

There again maybe the Mayans are right and it'll all be irrelevant whether the scientists or the armchair experts are proved correct.

I haven't bothered saving up for Christmas 2012 as a precaution! http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/w00t.gif

Edited March 12, 2012 by kar999

[lorenzo]

Movie of the recent progress of 1429 here.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some great aurora photos recently here http://www.aurorasky.../live-camera/9/

[yamkin]

STRONG SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A strong solar flare reaching M7.9 took place at 17:41 UTC Tuesday afternoon.

The flare was centred around AR11429.

PROTON ALERT

Edited March 13, 2012 by yamkin

[Methuselah]

Are these the same protons that trigger eathquakes and tsunamis? Maybe I'll stay in my nuclear fallout shelter, for the next few days, and be leery of any strange bumps on the head...

My hat should 'foil' em...

[yamkin]

M*8 Flare, Earth-Directed CME, Solar Radiation Storm, Earthquake Watch

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsr-QJnZ7ac&feature

Edited March 13, 2012 by yamkin

[Crepuscular Ray]

M7 according to spaceweather; my guess is that Earth will get a glancing blow from the CME if anything. The visual near alignment of Venus and Jupiter from here - as mentioned in the video - is a red herring at best and smacks of astrology at worst. They may appear in roughly the same part of the sky to us, but Jupiter is hundreds of millions of miles beyond the Sun, not in alignment with Venus. On top of which, I'm fairly sure that the flare was on the opposite side of the Sun, not facing Venus and Jupiter.

Edited March 13, 2012 by crepuscular ray

[yamkin]

Breaking News - Unidentified Object By The SUN - 11th March 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPxbyUHsNGU&feature

[Crepuscular Ray]

Wasn't that posted a couple of days ago elsewhere as a possible "tornado"?

[lorenzo]

Interesting video... Twister on the Sun??????

[Methuselah]

M7 according to spaceweather; my guess is that Earth will get a glancing blow from the CME if anything. The visual near alignment of Venus and Jupiter from here - as mentioned in the video - is a red herring at best and smacks of astrology at worst. They may appear in roughly the same part of the sky to us, but Jupiter is hundreds of millions of miles beyond the Sun, not in alignment with Venus. On top of which, I'm fairly sure that the flare was on the opposite side of the Sun, not facing Venus and Jupiter.

Precisely!

[pottyprof]

M7 according to spaceweather; my guess is that Earth will get a glancing blow from the CME if anything.

Slightly more than a glancing blow looking at the latest CACTus images.. Definitely nothing near a full on though and there are some questions as to the speed too.

Forecast to impact tomorrow (15th)

[Moomin]

Are these the same protons that trigger eathquakes and tsunamis? Maybe I'll stay in my nuclear fallout shelter, for the next few days, and be leery of any strange bumps on the head...

My hat should 'foil' em...

Come on SS they were 'Bad Neutrinos' that caused all the trouble in the film 2012! Currently reviewing the Planetry Alignment Theory and Earth Crust Displacement Theory to see how they relate to the 'Reality Displacement Theory'.

Moomin

[yamkin]

Dark-Side Cosmic Burst & ANOTHER CME ON ITS WAY [14th March 2012]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHIxFDrk90s&feature