Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[GeorgeWX]

Lasco c3 confirms the cme that was concurrent with the X2 flare is not heading in our direction. Last night's stereo beacon data was showing this to be a predominantly back-sided event despite the positioning of 1339 on the earth side of the sun. It does suggest that the X class flare triggered a large cme possibly from another region yet to appear over the limb. Alternatively, it's possible that 1339 has/had large filaments connecting it with another active region beyond the limb.

I've put together a movie of the cme from Lasco c3, click to play.

Edited November 4, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Today's sunspot number at 161. Solar flux measured today at 8pm was also 161.

Sunspot 1339 has grown in size during the last 24 hours to an area now covering 1540 millionths. By sheer coincidence this was the same size as old sunspot 720 at it's peak.

After last night's X class flare the region calmed slightly, however in the last 6 hours activity has started to pick up once again with an M1 flare at around 20.40, the background x-ray flux is trending towards more M-X class flaring.

M class activity is likely and severe flares above X5 are possible during the next 24 hours from 1339. Any cme's resulting from strong flaring are likely to be at least partially earth directed.

Region 1338 has remained relatively quiet, only C class flaring during the next 24 hours with a slight chance of M class activity.

A minor shock was detected on ace at 20.50, likely to be the arrival of the weak cme mentioned in response to Ladyofthestorm. At the moment earth effects are minimal with no obvious signs that any geomagnetic storming will take place. Based on current solar wind and magnetic field measurements at ace, the maximum potential of the incoming cme is conditions around k3-k4. If that changes I will update, for the moment there's nothing to get excited about unless you are north of 58N.

Today's sun

X-ray flux for last 3 days, activity around 1339 dominates the graph.

Edited November 4, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Filtered images of today's sun shows huge sprawling magnetic filaments just beyond the eastern limb, a lot of activity going on.

What's lurking will become visible in the next 24-36 hours, amongst the chaos there may be another large sunspot region.

In progress at the moment yet another large flare, currently measuring M3 and rising.

[GeorgeWX]

Today's sunspot number 135 and the offical solar flux for 07/11 at 177.

Huge AR1339 continues to regularly spit out C and M class flares, the largest a M3.7 yesterday morning. Along with the flare was a small halo cme, orientated north of the sun-earth path, with this one a miss is more likely than a hit.

The large sunspot region shrunk slightly to around 1250 millionths when measured yesterday evening, the most recent measurement just taken shows that 1339 has maintained this size over the last day. More M class flaring is likely during the next 24 hours with a possibility of another X class event.

Seldom mentioned sunspot group 1338 was itself responsible for 4 C class flares in the last day. Further C class flaring is likely from 1338 with a small possibility of an M class flare.

Several new active regions have appeared over the limb, each one a reasonable size. It has now become clearer why there was a back-sided cme when 1339 emitted the X2 flare, the source of the eruption would have been one of the newly numbered regions, 1341 or 1342.

1341 and 1342 have not shown much activity today but it does look like 1342 has sufficent magnetic complexity for M class events.

Region 1340 looks quiet and should remain so.

Today's sun

[ZONE 51]

Solar Activity,

and heres the link - http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/sunspots/

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/

http://www.spacetoday.org/SolSys/Sun/SunspotsTwinPeaks.html

http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/sdac.html

Edited November 10, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[GeorgeWX]

The sunspot number for November 9th came in at 220, a new record high for this solar cycle, today's sunspot number is 208.

Solar flux for the last 3 days has been around the 180 mark which is technically a record high value for this solar cycle if it were not for the flare induced SFI measurement of 24/09 that came in at 190.

Forecasters believe there are 2 unrelated cme's due to pass us in the next 24-36 hours. The first left the sun early on 08/11 and is a faint, slow moving cme caused by a filament eruption around 1339. The second is a much faster, and more dense cme related to yesterday's M1 flare. The eruption source was a large filament located between 1342 and 1343. The arrival of the 2 cme's will be grouped together very closely with good potential for major geomagnetic storming during the passage.

Today's sun

[GeorgeWX]

Movie of Lasco c3 showing the cme relating to the M1 flare. Other cme activity that is not earth directed can be seen from both the western limb and the SE quadrant.

The latest noaa space weather forecast (issued 5 minutes ago) upgrades the expected effects on our magnetic field from active to minor storm conditions on 12/11.

Edited November 10, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[picog]

Movie of Lasco c3 showing the cme relating to the M1 flare. Other cme activity that is not earth directed can be seen from both the western limb and the SE quadrant.

The latest noaa space weather forecast (issued 5 minutes ago) upgrades the expected effects on our magnetic field from active to minor storm conditions on 12/11.

The sun has perked up since I last looked at this thread. I presume the white coloured ejections are the cme? If so, what is the dark segment at 2 o'clock?

[frogesque]

The sun has perked up since I last looked at this thread. I presume the white coloured ejections are the cme? If so, what is the dark segment at 2 o'clock?

It's a stick! Actually its the support for the central disc that obscures the sun proper so that the sensors can see the corona without being blinded by the direct glare from the sun.

White billowing clouds are the CME.

[GeorgeWX]

Solar flux at 155 and sunspot number around 150.

The expected cme arrived around 6am on Saturday morning turning out to be much weaker than expected, the IMF also tilted northward for the duration of the cme passage.

It's all turned out to be a bit of a disappointment really with 1339 transiting our side of the sun in a mainly uneventful fashion. All hope is not lost though as there are some huge prominences to behold. The largest of these magnetic filaments stretches halfway across the sun from the NW limb, if it pops in the coming days it could head in our direction, see the red wavelength pic below.

All other sunspot groups have been mostly inactive over the last few days.

Today's sun

Large prominences

Edited November 14, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Solar flux at 148 and sunspot number 137

The last 24 hours we see a hive of flare activity from sunspot 1348, soon to rotate out of view and sunspot 1346. Both regions responsible for M class flaring during the period.

Several cme's were noted, most of which coming from around 1348 are unlikely to be geo-effective.

Noaa's nightly summary mentions a potentially geo-effective filament eruption occuring at 20:30 from an area due south of 1343, however more analysis will be required to determine the direction.

Today's sun

Edited November 16, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[cooling climate]

Interesting though how low the AP index has been so far

this month.

[karyo]

How does the current activity compare to forecasts for this cycle?

It seems to me that the sun has become rather active in the last few months.

Karyo

[yamkin]

Pressure to the magnetosphere has increased

NB: The pressure will fluctuate. I just wanted you to see our magnetosphere under immense pressure.

Edited November 17, 2011 by yamkin

[yamkin]

Pressure to the magnetosphere has increased dramatically.

NB: The pressure will fluctuate. I just wanted you to see our magnetosphere under immense pressure.

[yamkin]

Solar radiation storm and shock wave sends CME towards Earth

RADIATION STORM: A minor radiation storm is in progress. The protons making up this storm were accelerated toward Earth by shock waves in a CME that left the sun around 0700 UT on Nov. 26th. This event could have an effect on high-latitude HF radio communication.....spaceweather.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ7-K6BzCGE

[yamkin]

UPDATE

MASSIVE CME - Will Hit Earth Nov 29-30; Another Will Hit Earth TODAY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEAw9MOqYe4

[pottyprof]

So when was this flare then Yamkin? I must be missing some data.....

Edit... Forget that. Reread the stuff on Spaceweather. Looks like a glancing blow. Would be good if there was a clear sky for the peeps up in Scotland. See how it goes.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Yup there was a flare, but not Earth directed. I'd say a glancing blow at most, and given that it was only a C-class flare, not too great effects either.

Here's hoping/wishing...

[yamkin]

HUGE CME TO STRIKE EARTH

Apologies for posting the incorrect link.

Thanks crepuscular ray for pointing out the error

http://iswa.gsfc.nas...-1&cygnetId=261

Edited November 27, 2011 by yamkin

[Crepuscular Ray]

Um, if it's far side, how would it strike Earth?

[yamkin]

Magnetosphere is under very high pressure. The angle of the solar wind is indicated by Bz(nT) & Bz(nT) as negative which explains the pressure build. Furthermore, there is an increase of plasma temperature and density which also acknowledges the pressure build. PROTON LEVELS ARE MODERATE TO HIGH. FURTHER EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANO ACTIVITY AND OTHER DISASTERS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE COSMIC RAYS STRIKING THE EARTH'S CORE.

12/03/2011 00:36:09 UT

[shuggee]

Wonderful time-lapse aurora recording from Sweden:

http://t.co/yatM83Re

[Methuselah]

Magnetosphere is under very high pressure. The angle of the solar wind is indicated by Bz(nT) & Bz(nT) as negative which explains the pressure build. Furthermore, there is an increase of plasma temperature and density which also acknowledges the pressure build. PROTON LEVELS ARE MODERATE TO HIGH. FURTHER EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANO ACTIVITY AND OTHER DISASTERS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE COSMIC RAYS STRIKING THE EARTH'S CORE.

12/03/2011 00:36:09 UT

Pray tell, Yamkin: How on earth do cosmic rays influence disasters?

[Moomin]

Pray tell, Yamkin: How on earth do cosmic rays influence disasters?

As a geologist I too am interested as to how this process works. Its a new one to me and as a scientist I like to keep an open mind but can't quite see the linkage. Straying into particle physics I thought protons were relatively large (for sub atomic particles) and were positively charged therefore would not be able to penetrate to the earth's crust as they'd hit something or stick to something. Neutrinos can and do go right through the planet as they are small and have no charge, they also do not interact with the material they pass through.

M