Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[NorthernRab]

Can't see anything in Inverness, which is very unfortunate considering just how far North we are, there seems to be a fog. Checked the webcam for other Highland locations: Stornoway, Brora, Kylestrome, Kyleakin, Cairngorm, Fort William etc - nothing?

[GeorgeWX]

Most recent magnetometer update shows the trend continuing... Aurora visible as far south as 53N, overhead anywhere north of 56N

What i'll say at this late hour is I'm greatly dumbfounded at just how this geomagnetic storm became so powerful.

Factor this in, the cme struck early in the evening, NOAA's space weather prediction centre issued their daily forecast at 11pm uk time, so it would have been compiled whilst under cme effects. Nothing in their forecast suggests conditions will be stronger than kp4 (active), this is a forecast issued DURING the cme passage. Even swpc couldn't see this one coming and they had all the stats to hand for the ongoing cme when forecasting isolated active periods.

In my opinion the filament eruption of 22/10 is not large enough to explain the strength of the ongoing geomagnetic storm.

Every space weather forecast out there was in agreement, a period of active or active to minor storming (k4-5). It was not earth directed, at most a brief flank hit was possible, the vast majority of the ejected matter sailed well wide of us.

And the bright M1 flare/cme of 22/10 was heading north of the ecliptic plane, that's not the cause of this geomagnetic storm either.

I do wonder what is...

Can't see anything in Inverness, which is very unfortunate considering just how far North we are, there seems to be a fog. Checked the webcam for other Highland locations: Stornoway, Brora, Kylestrome, Kyleakin, Cairngorm, Fort William etc - nothing?

I was just as unlucky as yourself, I'd guess the fog was in the way.

There's always next time.

Edited October 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Optimum aurora viewing window closes around 3am UTC, and the geomagnetic storm continues but the magnetic field has largely recovered.

Aurora sightings only possible north of 54N, to the NW horizon for the next 10-15 minutes.

It looks to me like the maximum deviation detected by the scottish magnetometer was somewhere around -400nT, that is a huge figure.

Most recent planetery kp at 6. For the period 11pm-2am UTC, the UK K-index (Hartland) was 8.

Edited October 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Ladyofthestorm]

Aurora watch detector does sometimes through wobblies! We didnt see anything here either.

[GeorgeWX]

Aurora watch detector does sometimes through wobblies! We didnt see anything here either.

Very true, I would say that in the last 6 months the reliability of the Crooktree magnetometer has improved. But still you are correct, At the moment in last night's storm when the magnetic field weakened by over 200nT (around 11pm uk time), I had to cross reference with other uk and euro magnetometers to be sure it wasn't just going haywire. It checked out fine and correlated closely with other magnetometers.

Will be interesting to see if anyone in the UK managed to image the aurora. On spaceweather.com there is much excitement at the sightings across the USA with plenty of pics to boot, but this storm reached it's peak and most southerly extent between 11.15pm and 1am uk time, before nightfall over the pond. Europe was perfectly positioned for the best show and the USA got the table scraps of this geomagnetic storm.

The first warning I can see anywhere for mid-latitude aurora didn't come until around 11pm here. The Americans got several hours of notice that something was happening.

Edited October 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

From the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-15450510

Slightly optimistic. Tonight's geomagnetic activity is likely to be minuscule compared to that of last night. For anyone interested, the Bz going negative would be the first sign that storming may soon commence again. The Bz has been in a constant positive (northward) state since 4am utc. A positive Bz restricts the influence of the solar wind.

[lfcdude]

i did try take pics last night well early hours, of the red and yellow going up and down in the north of the sky, when was on top of the hill but phone cam not the best, mind you was like dead existed, 1st time iv seen it

[lorenzo]

Whats the out look for tonight George on Aurora activity?

[GeorgeWX]

Whats the out look for tonight George on Aurora activity?

Sorry Lorenzo last night I didn't log back on after I posted, Maybe I should have clarified in that the bbc article was optimistic as the storm was well and truly over, last night did turn out to be quiet. The same is expected for tonight.

Nothing much to report in terms of solar activity apart from a C1 flare and possible cme late this morning from around 1324. As usual Lasco imagery of the cme has been cut so will look at noaa's daily summary later on to see if this filament eruption could be geo-effective.

1324 has decayed significantly since the last update. 1330 remains quiet but has the potential for M class flaring.

Today's sun

[lorenzo]

No need for apology at all, someone on msg had mentioned looking out for Aurora in Aberdeenshire so I thought I would ask in the hope you were around.

Turns out they spotted weak Auroras and also Snow !

[GeorgeWX]

Noaa daily summary/forecast issued.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray event at 26/1001Z from Region 1324 (N12W38). Associated with this event was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at 26/1000Z. GOES-15 SXI imagery first observed material movement from Region 1324 in a W-NW direction at about 26/0800Z. Limited imagery prevented a thorough analysis of the CMEs potential geoeffectiveness. The region exhibited significant decay in area and spot count and was classified as a beta magnetic configuration.

In short, noaa's summary mirror's my previous post, right down to not being able to see Lasco imagery!

i did try take pics last night well early hours, of the red and yellow going up and down in the north of the sky, when was on top of the hill but phone cam not the best, mind you was like dead existed, 1st time iv seen it

It looks like you may be one of only a few people in the UK to see the storm at it's peak. Nice catch!

Getting pics of aurora with a camera phone is tricky. A high exposure or a slow shutter speed reveals a lot more detail than a snap n go camera pic. Look through your phone settings, you might be able to max out exposure, its a good idea to support the device when taking pictures, even sitting it side up on a surface and tilting back with one hand to the desired amount helps greatly to get a decent crisp shot.

Edited October 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[lfcdude]

Getting pics of aurora with a camera phone is tricky. A high exposure or a slow shutter speed reveals a lot more detail than a snap n go camera pic. Look through your phone settings, you might be able to max out exposure, its a good idea to support the device when taking pictures, even sitting it side up on a surface and tilting back with one hand to the desired amount helps greatly to get a decent crisp shot.

yeah was just trying to take pictures, with out editing any settings, so max exposure out next time? did not know that.. anyways its thanks to you i saw it tar lad

[GeorgeWX]

Today's sunspot number is 91. Solar flux at 132. The last two solar rotations show a pattern emerging with the sn and sfi numbers swinging up then down, currently we are at the 'down', all should change in around 4-5 days when more active regions begin to rotate into view.

The map below shows areas of active magnetism on the farside of the sun, regions circled are areas where there is a degree of confidence and are alongside numbers representing the percentage of confidence, i.e P80 = 80% confidence.

Lasco images showing yesterday's cme are now available. Most of, if not all the ejected material is sailing well wide of earth. The cme is also very slow and faint. I don't expect geomagnetic storming from this event.

Today, the most recent stereo beacon data is showing a cme that may be earth directed, Looking at other imagery I can see some sort of activity from earth directed sunspot 1330 around 12pm. There is no associated flare with the event. More information will be available as Lasco updates (hopefully) over the coming hours.

Today's sun

Edited October 27, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Today's sunspot number is 80 and solar flux at 127.

Solar activity between 27/10 and this morning has been low, however that is expected to change as the farside active regions mentioned in the last post are now beginning to appear over the eastern limb. These active regions have announced their arrival with a trio of flares this evening, A C8 and 2x M1 flares.

Active region 1330 held a lot of promise during this rotation but has only produced C class flaring and a single faint CME. The region continues to decay, a slight chance of M class flaring as there is still some polarity intermixing, only C class activity is likely. Any cme's from this region have a low chance of being earth directed.

The last 24-36 hours we see a new active region rapidly forming and has been numbered 1334, M class flaring is possible during the next 24 hours if this incredible rate of growth continues. Any cme activity from this region during the next 48 hours is likely to have an earth directed component.

Today's sun

X-ray flux showing rising activity during today culminating in this evening's M class flaring.

Edited October 31, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

Kp Index has reached level 5 which is Geomagnetic Scale 1 (Minor)

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.

Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes.

Very high to moderate pressure is striking the Magnetosphere (Earth's Shield)

Edited November 1, 2011 by yamkin

[shuggee]

Indeed Yamkin - found a twitter feed today from @BGSauroraAlert today (British Geological Survey here in Edinburgh). They reported a 'shock in the solar wind' earlier. (With thanks to @weather_events).

[kar999]

Kp Index has reached level 5 which is Geomagnetic Scale 1 (Minor)

Yep there were reports of visible aurora in the usual favoured spots within the Arctic circle.

We need a few M or even X class flares from the big regions rotating towards us..

Edited November 2, 2011 by kar999

[GeorgeWX]

We need a few M or even X class flares from the big regions rotating towards us..

Yep, quietly confident here that one of those large regions will spit out some earthbound cme's, the main contender is 1339, around 20 C class flares and 4 M class flares from this sunspot group alone since Monday.

Most recent flare from 1339 is also the largest yet, M4.3 at 2150, We'll need to wait another 24 to 36 hours for this active region to rotate to a more geo-effective position, fingers crossed that it keep's performing. We could see some X class flaring from 1339.

Also worth mentioning, the level of activity around earth facing sunspot 1334 has petered out since the last update and is quietly decaying away to a single spot.

M4.3 flare from 1339.

Today's sun

Edited November 2, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Sunspot number 109, Solar flux 154.

1339 still looking very active. Yet another M class flare early this afternoon (M2) and a likely cme. In terms of aerial coverage this region is comparable in size to old sunspot 1302 but has much larger penumbrae and opposing magnetic polarities are compacted together very tightly, the perfect recipe for powerful flares.

The largest flare of solar cycle 24 comes in at X7, the culprit being sunspot 1263 on 09/08/11,

1339 has the potential to beat that record with ease.

Today's sun

1339 close up.

Edited November 3, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

X1.9 flare from active region 1339 at 20.20

Edited November 3, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Ladyofthestorm]

I saw tthis, how long will it take to reach Earth? Im saying that because Saturday night looks a great clear night for seeing aurora.

[Crepuscular Ray]

At that angle, it's not a shoo-in to have any effect on Earth.

[GeorgeWX]

I saw tthis, how long will it take to reach Earth? Im saying that because Saturday night looks a great clear night for seeing aurora.

At that angle, it's not a shoo-in to have any effect on Earth.

Ray is correct for the most part. The chance of cme's coming our direction rises significantly when eruptions emanate from between 60E and 20W on the solar disk. The location of sunspot 1339 at the time of the recent X class flare is around 64E, It is currently entering a geo-effective position.

The most recent stereo imagery shows a sizeable cme lifting that could be related to this flare, Very much a preliminary conclusion but it looks like on this occasion the majority of the cme is not heading in our direction, a small portion of the eruption might be however. Once the Lasco c3 imagery rolls in then we will be able to attain the direction more clearly.

A large and bright filament eruption is seen on Stereo A, earth is to the left of the sun.

On Stereo B the faint edge of the cme is just beginning to appear, from this satellite's position earth is to the right of the sun.

Current positioning of Nasa's Stereo A and B.

In the last 15 minutes another flare measuring M2.1 coming from 1339.

As Stereo continues to update it's becoming clear that the cme related to the X class flare is moving fast, probably upwards of 1000km/s.

Edited November 3, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

I saw tthis, how long will it take to reach Earth? Im saying that because Saturday night looks a great clear night for seeing aurora.

There may be a chance for you to see a display tomorrow night as a flank hit from a previous cme is possible. Spells of k4-5 if the cme passage comes to fruition, meaning you could see something from your location up there in sunny Skye. Keep a wee eye on the magnetometer.

Also worth a mention, Sunspot 1339 is now the largest active region since January 2005 according to Noaa.

00.30 update shows:-

Aerial coverage of AR1339 at 1400 millionths and current location 57E.

Old sunspot 1302 was also a monster sized active region but at it's largest was only 1300 millionths.

The active region of January 2005 that is currently trumping 1339 was numbered 702, it was responsible for several earth directed X class flares the largest measuring X7, as well as several periods of major and severe geomagnetic storming.

Image of 702 by Pete Lawrence

Lasco c3 capturing an earthbound cme related to X3 class solar flare from sunspot 702 on 17/01/05

The largest sunspot ever recorded during April 1947. This active region lingered for several months and at it's largest measured around 6000 millionths.

Edited November 4, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Ladyofthestorm]

thanks guys for all your help xxx