Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[cyclonic happiness]

There's loads of different data and maps out there all of it visually stimulating, but unfortunately all of it is either outdated or just not reliable enough. A lot of the short term aurora forecasts as well as the nict magnetosphere simulation are based on ace satellite data which is just too unreliable to paint an accurate picture, in particular the wind density reading which is quite an important perimeter.

For that reason using the magnetometer is the best way to be confident that something has happened or is happening in the skies around you. The deviation threshold's I mention are not scientifically backed in any way, these are numbers derived from my own observations of aurorae since becoming interested in the subject.

Not a fan of the Mail but they have published an article featuring a pic of the aurora seen from Buckinghamshire. It gives a sense of how bright it was, managing to punch through the light pollution.

http://www.dailymail...lar-flares.html

Did the photographer have a very long exposure and wide aperture to acheive those photos does anyone know, or was it actually visible that bright?

[lfcdude]

Did the photographer have a very long exposure and wide aperture to acheive those photos does anyone know, or was it actually visible that bright?

Well Ludgershall is not to far from me about 10 mins drive.. and i saw nothing.... these aurora's.. our really hit and miss...

Edited September 29, 2011 by lfcdude

[shuggee]

I had a local journalist tell me this morning that because it's very sunny at the moment, more sun means more aurora, and that last night had the most Scottish sitings.

I tried really really hard to be polite.

[Benvironment]

I had a local journalist tell me this morning that because it's very sunny at the moment, more sun means more aurora, and that last night had the most Scottish sitings.

I tried really really hard to be polite.

What always puzzles me about situations like that, where you'd have to think that the person saying it must be aware that they're not 100% sure of the facts........is the fact that they never entertain the possibility that you might know more about it than they do.

Bonkers.

[shuggee]

Yes it really confuses me too. I am the sort of person who wants to speak with knowledgable people to learn and gain information, I really struggle to understand why people in the circumstance I describe above wouldn't be the same. I love learning - and it is a genuine thrill to meet a very clever person. A good friend of mine once used the example of a race as a metaphor - would you choose to compete against the fastest runner you know, to push yourself and try to achieve something or would you choose to run against somebody you know you could beat? I am definitely of the former type.

I think some people see it as a weakness, or perhaps they have a personality which means they always have to be the one who is right. More fool them I suppose. We've had characters post endlessly on this very forum in the past - who really should just sit back, take a deep breath and consider that maybe, just maybe, somebody else might know more than they think they do.

But I digress, as George has been very ably pointing out throughout this thread in the last few days, the Monday/Tuesday peak of auroral activity really was special.

[frogesque]

Well Ludgershall is not to far from me about 10 mins drive.. and i saw nothing.... these aurora's.. our really hit and miss...

Auroa watching is sometimes a patient affair. As seen in the pictures above quite often it will start out as a nondescipt 'green fog' and it's easy to dismiss it as bit of a non event. Keep watching - maybe 3 or 4 hours or so and your eyes adjust and the show can also become not only noticeably bigger, brighter and more dynamic but when a substorm subsides magnetic field lines snap back and a huge burst of energy can be released. This is frequently when the most vivid and colouful displays are produced - the downside is, it may only last 5 or 10 minutes!

This site explains the colours much better than I ever could: http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/211.fall2000.web.projects/Christina%20Shaw/AuroraColors.html

[GeorgeWX]

Geomagnetic activity remains at unsettled levels, due to the after effects of a mild cme that arrived in the early hours of this morning.

Active region 1302 has remained in a quieter state over the last 48 hours, The leader spot has seperated from the trailing spot and the trailing spot now has monster sized filaments connecting it with sunspot 1305 (see image below). Sunspot 1305 has rotated to a geo--effective position and C class flaring is likely. There have been several C class flares and one M class flare from 1302. Late on 27/09 a C6.4 flare was responsible for a bright cme, part of it will pass us late on 30/09 or early on 01/10. Minor storming is likely during the passage.

Auroa watching is sometimes a patient affair. As seen in the pictures above quite often it will start out as a nondescipt 'green fog' and it's easy to dismiss it as bit of a non event. Keep watching - maybe 3 or 4 hours or so and your eyes adjust and the show can also become not only noticeably bigger, brighter and more dynamic but when a substorm subsides magnetic field lines snap back and a huge burst of energy can be released. This is frequently when the most vivid and colouful displays are produced - the downside is, it may only last 5 or 10 minutes!

This site explains the colours much better than I ever could: http://ffden-2.phys....roraColors.html

The most important thing to do while looking for aurora is to allow your eyes to adjust to the darkness. Don't use any ciggy lighters or torches, even make sure the courtesy light in the car is disabled so you don't flood your eyes when you open the door. It takes me around 10 minutes to adjust, I'll use that time to track star constellations.

[GeorgeWX]

In the last hour earth's magnetic field has responded to the arrival of the C6 flare cme mentioned above, The Canada/U.S is better positioned for this one. There may be slim aurora opportunities once the cme takes hold (perhaps in 30-60 minutes) but it's arrival is a little tad late for the european's.

There is potentially another earth directed cme thanks to a M1 class flare from sunspot 1305 earlier this evening. I'll update tomorrow.

Edited October 1, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Yesterday evening's M1 class flare emitted a cme, rather faint and generally heading north of the ecliptic plane. Most of, if not all the matter will sail wide.

This morning at 11am earth facing sunspot 1305 was responsible for another M1 flare, this event looks interesting. It will be a number of hours before the Lasco images come in. All the preliminery data points to a huge and bright cme that should incorporate earth in it's path.

I'll say no more until Lasco comes through.

Edited October 1, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[kar999]

I was woken by an Amber Alert from Aurorawatch by text at 1:20 this morning... I was all set to get up and dressed but checked the websites on my phone first.....false alarm!

[GeorgeWX]

Today's solar flux reading is 137. Daily values have consistantly been higher than 130 since 13/09.

Yesterday's 'interesting' M1 class flare involved several active regions on the solar surface, both 1302 and 1305 released cme's during the flare activity. It's likely that some of the matter will pass us late Monday or early Tuesday. Also in the early hours of this morning a M3.9 flare coming from 1305 again looks to have let loose a faint cme.

Grouping all of the potentially geo-effective cme's together, we should expect the geomagnetic field to wake up tomorrow afternoon with the potential flank hit from the cme relating to the M1 flare (30/09). Soon after that we expect the arrival of the more recent cme activity. Periods of minor storming are very likely during 04/10, with the solar wind being influenced by many different cme's as well as an ongoing coronal hole wind stream, the potential exists for geomagnetic activity to reach (and possibly exceed) major storm levels on 04/10.

[Snowyowl9]

Reading off a site edit.

Double eruption reported on october 1st widely spaced sunspots 1302 and 1305 erupted in quick succession,revealing a long distance entanglement which was not obvious before.NASA recorded the double blast.the part of the eruption centered on sunspot 1305 hurled a coronal mass ejection toward earth.The relatively slow moving(500km/s)cloud is expected to reach our planet on Oct 4TH,possible causing geomagnetic storms when it arrives.

Keep an eye out for auroras northern latitudes.

Did comet lead to magnetic field colapse.

Extremely bright comet crashes into sun magnitide 1 explosion unleashed.

I read about this comet last week which is the 2nd in a matter of months headed into the sun.

Hope skies are clear tomorrow night.

[cyclonic happiness]

HOLY CRAP!

How the hell did they miss this???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.c...d&v=dOOEaVwObgU

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWYu4Cz48Lw

Do you realise what would have happened to The Earth if we'd have been on the side of that flare?

Who says the governments don't hide stuff?

How big was that comet? looked large planet sized?

Wow! ?????

Edited October 5, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[picog]

That's incredible. Presumably someone, somewhere saw that coming? Whatever it was, it was pretty darn big, and I'm glad it didn't hit earth— we could all be history by now if it had done!

[Richie V]

HOLY CRAP!

How the hell did they miss this???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.c...d&v=dOOEaVwObgU

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWYu4Cz48Lw

Do you realise what would have happened to The Earth if we'd have been on the side of that flare?

Who says the governments don't hide stuff?

How big was that comet? looked large planet sized?

Wow! ?????

Blimey charlie. Makes you realise just how insignificant and disposable we are in the universe.

[Radiating Dendrite]

HOLY CRAP!

How the hell did they miss this???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.c...d&v=dOOEaVwObgU

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWYu4Cz48Lw

Do you realise what would have happened to The Earth if we'd have been on the side of that flare?

Who says the governments don't hide stuff?

How big was that comet? looked large planet sized?

Wow! ?????

It was only Nibiru!

[shuggee]

If you think about it, it happens all the time - as this quick search at space.com shows:

http://bit.ly/ngeUPe

The sun is the most dense, most gravitationally attractive body in the solar system - so stuff shooting around our part of this corner of the galaxy will always be affected by its pull.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another CME today from a similar region is on spaceweather.com

They mentioned the comet on Sept 30th but not this one for some reason, even though it looks more spectacular. Perhaps there'll be more said tomorrow?

[skidders]

If you take a look at the SOHO website, it wasn't a big comet and these graze the sun frequently. They look bright when they get that close as many of them disintregrate and the CME on the other side was most likely just a coincidence. Check out the report.

http://sohowww.nasco.../pickoftheweek/

Edited October 5, 2011 by skidders

[Crepuscular Ray]

I thought the comet struck a couple of days before the really spectacular CME, which was yesterday.

[GeorgeWX]

Hi, recent computer meltdown is making getting online a bit trickier, re-installing the OS seems a temporary fix but the hard drive is well past it.

One of the expected cme's arrived slightly later than billed at around 7am this morning, Russia is well positioned for any auroral activity. In terms of cme strength it barely scrapes into the moderate category, I don't anticipate this particular geomagnetic storm will persist into this evening (not giving consideration to any other cme arrivals).

There is no doubt in my mind that the currently disrupted field is as a result of the effect from just one cme. There is definitely a second en-route and possibly a third as well, both of these cme's are scheduled to arrive today. If the cme direction is correct and they do indeed pass through, then there is a real chance for persistent minor storming this evening with bouts of major to severe storming. It all hangs on the cme's arriving whilst under the effects of the current cme passage.

Todays solar flux is 130 and sunspot number is 126.

Infamous sunspot group 1302, the region responsible for the incredible geomagnetic storm of 26/09 is waving goodbye as is disappears over the limb. In the last 2-3 days it has decayed significantly (well overdue imo). Sunspot 1305 which was has been another hopeful candidate is well past the position required for earth directed activity, It maintains most of it's girth.

More recently we see a new sunspot forming deep in the southern hemisphere numbered 1310, and a second southern spot 1311, both regions are growing rapidly. Two further regions of reasonable size have recently appeared over the limb, 1309 and 1312, both remain stable and quiet. A new sunspot region appearing over the limb today (and yet to be officially numbered) is showing a lot of activity with 4 C class flares today, the largest being a C9.2. On the attached image it is labelled 'new1'.

As has been pointed out, there has been a lot of farside activity recently, the likely culprit for the impressive halo eruption would be old region 1295, which showed a lot of promise during the last rotation but disappointingly maintained a mostly stable state. This region will appear over the limb around the 10-11th October provided it doesn't 'decompose' itself.

[cyclonic happiness]

I thought the comet struck a couple of days before the really spectacular CME, which was yesterday.

That's what I thought too?

But I think that was a different comet to this one.

I can't seem to find a clear answer as to how big the thing actually was?

Some say it's a small one, others say it's 4 times bigger than the Earth?

[GeorgeWX]

Reading off a site edit.

Double eruption reported on october 1st widely spaced sunspots 1302 and 1305 erupted in quick succession,revealing a long distance entanglement which was not obvious before.NASA recorded the double blast.the part of the eruption centered on sunspot 1305 hurled a coronal mass ejection toward earth.

I was slightly surprised that Nasa and Noaa made no mention of the connection between the two regions until a large eruption 'revealed' all. Several days prior to this I mentioned it (albeit briefly) in one of my updates.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2139131

Edited October 5, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Crepuscular Ray]

That's what I thought too?

But I think that was a different comet to this one.

I can't seem to find a clear answer as to how big the thing actually was?

Some say it's a small one, others say it's 4 times bigger than the Earth?

Perhaps I'm being uber-sceptical, but the comet in that video followed exactly the same track as the one from a couple of days before and brightened rapidly a long way out from the Sun. Plus, the timestamps on the Soho Lasco images don's seem to match up for some reason. I suspect a bit of photoshopping. As far as I'm aware, yesterday's very pretty CME was not linked with any comet.

No comet is 4 times bigger than the Earth!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or, at least, no comet nucleus is anything approaching that - most are between a few hundred metres to few kilometres or so across. The gaseous part surrounding the nucleus can get far bigger, but is just that, gas, dust and ice/water.

Edited October 5, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[GeorgeWX]

Solar activity in general is on the rise, both sunspot number and solar flux have been above 130 since 11/10. Today's sunspot number is 162 and solar flux at 147.

Despite the rising measurements, only C class flaring has occurred, the exception being a M1 flare this morning from a region rotating out of view.

The active region with greatest potential is 1324 (and straggler 1325). During the last rotation this large region was numbered 1302 and contained a mammoth sized sunspot. It was responsible for several M and X class flares as well as a fast earth directed cme. Severe geomagnetic storming resulted during the cme passage and the northern lights were visible across northern Europe.

During the last 24 hours 1324 has expanded at a rapid pace and there is significant polarity intermixing, M class flaring is possible as growth continues. Any cme activity today has potential to have a partially earth directed component. The risk of earthbound cme's rises during the next 3 to 4 days as 1324/5 rotates further toward centre disk.

The sun today

The sun at this point during the last rotation (24/09) sunspot number - 90, Solar flux - 158

(my computer is now fixed so i'm able to update should anything interesting occur)

Edited October 20, 2011 by GeorgeWX