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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Sun is due to be at it`s solar peak next year for this 11/12 year cycle.

Around 2000 was the last.

Best chances for big displays.

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

Sun is due to be at it`s solar peak next year for this 11/12 year cycle.

Around 2000 was the last.

Best chances for big displays.

2013, I'd heard. Perhaps I'm wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Yes I was looking for something else today and came across the same date 2013 on one site.

looking at the previous graphs.

Last maxes.

1980

1990

2000/01

Going by wikipedia the last max was 2000.

Next one is indeed May 2013 which will be 13 years.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

Through the course of this afternoon there has been a geomagnetic storm measuring kp6. The storm has persisted throughout and looks set to continue over the next hour at least.

Locations north of 56N should see some auroral activity to the north-east horizon at the moment.

As we get closer to midnight the aurora may be visible as far south as Yorkshire if storming at this level continues.

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

More on the theory about plasma streams and the sunspot cycle:

http://science.nasa....mar_spotlesssun

Edited by crepuscular ray
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
oopsie! duplicate link...soz Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

Solar Flux Update: The Solar Flux on Friday was 127. This is now the highest SFI of Cycle 24. The sunspot number was 104 which is also now the highest

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffordshire. UK 159mtrs ASL
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffordshire. UK 159mtrs ASL

Just tryed out a solar filter off the Meade attached to 300mm sigma lens (hand held) & cropped the image. Not really sharp but you can just make out the sunspots.

post-3585-0-11680000-1299430180_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

Todays SFI should come out at around 147 which would be another high for sc24, the background flux for today is within C class.

nice pic Leekay, 11164 is turning into a beauty. Its only a matter of time before we see a major flare coming from there.

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

Yesterdays official SFI was 143, that should be trumped today by a figure nearer 150 due to very high solar activity. We have had 2 long duration M-class flares, first event from AR 11166 measuring M1.9 at 2pm today emitting a bright cloud of plasma, the edge of which might brush past our magnetosphere.

The second flare is ongoing with a peak of M3.7 from region 11164, there appears to be a bright CME from this region as well though it is not earth directed.

Image of ongoing M3 flare.

post-12654-0-01351800-1299531291_thumb.j

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

Further analysis on yesterdays solar activity has been carried out.

There were several M class flares including 2 of particular interest, both responsible for bright CME's. The first CME came from 1166 a region located close to the centre of the disk, this one is earthbound with an estimated velocity of around 700km/s. The second CME came from 1164 which is near the western limb. This one appears to be fast and fierce with a travelling speed of over 2000km/s. Despite this region's position near the sun's limb, an earthbound halo CME appears on Lasco C2 and C3 from this event. It is likely that the cme number 2 will overtake cme 1 en route to earth.

Minor geomagnetic storming is likely to commence 30-40 hours from now with severe geomagnetic activity (kp7-kp9) a real possibility.

The SFI at 8pm yesterday (the standard time for recording this measurement) came out at a ridiculously high 938, polluted by strong flare activity. As a result of this, the SFI measurement taken at 5pm yesterday will be used instead as the official figure, 153 sfu - another record for this solar cycle.

Solar activity remains very high indeed, as I type there has just been yet another flare measuring M5.3.

M1.9 flare and CME from 1166

Posted Image

M3.7 flare and CME from 1164

Posted Image

post-12654-0-75321500-1299583625_thumb.g

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

Solar activity remains very high indeed, as I type there has just been yet another flare measuring M5.3.

Thanks for the updates George, with any luck, Weds/Thurs may produce something Aurora wise

The M Class flare you mentioned in that report looks like it ended up at M5.4.

Nice to see the sun waking at last, I wonder how likely it is to be sustained

Edit:

I sit corrected :cc_confused: you were right with your M5.3

Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

I too wonder if we will enter a sustained period of high solar activity. The next couple of months will reveal whether it's short lived or more of a long term trend.

The image below is taken during a long duration M4.4 flare lasting over 5 hours associated with a bright CME eruption, this time from AR1165. Still ongoing.

Very impressive explosion

post-12654-0-65754900-1299624520_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

That's a beaut! Probably the most plasma from a CME this cycle so far, at a guess. I'd say it's a shame that it's not Earth directed, but with Discovery not due to land until late tomorrow, it's probably a good thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

I too wonder if we will enter a sustained period of high solar activity. The next couple of months will reveal whether it's short lived or more of a long term trend.

The image below is taken during a long duration M4.4 flare lasting over 5 hours associated with a bright CME eruption, this time from AR1165. Still ongoing.

Very impressive explosion

post-12654-0-65754900-1299624520_thumb.j

That's a heck of a picture. Are we, or are we not lucky to be living in a time where we have such technology available that we can all observe it.

Looks as though the "M Flare fest" is still ongoing. One of the CME's may hit us just after noon UTC today, so will be interesting to look North tonight

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

X1.5 flare from earth facing region AR1166 in the last 15 minutes.

post-12654-0-50739500-1299714333_thumb.p

Oops.

Edited by crepuscular ray
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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

Any idea if there's much of a CME associated with it?

Looking at the Lasco c2 images there does appear to be a cme. Its not a brilliant ball of ejected plasma like some of the recent limb events, It looks faint and rather slow. Ejected matter can be seen heading outwards towards lasco indicating a possible full halo event. A look at lasco c3 imagery would confirm this but it's not available to view online at the moment

x1 flare cme

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

Geomagnetic activity is stirring up this evening with local magnetometers currently recording a disruption typical of kp5 conditions.

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

Looking at the Lasco c2 images there does appear to be a cme. Its not a brilliant ball of ejected plasma like some of the recent limb events, It looks faint and rather slow. Ejected matter can be seen heading outwards towards lasco indicating a possible full halo event. A look at lasco c3 imagery would confirm this but it's not available to view online at the moment

x1 flare cme

Can't see anything on lasco C3, so perhaps there wasn't much of a CME from that event.

Judging from the state of the "current auroral oval" image on spaceweather.com, I wish I lived in the Orkneys rather than London.

Edited by crepuscular ray
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

How does all this recent activity fit in with expectations of a low cycle? Is it now expected to be larger than thought?

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

I would have thought this is just normal activity for this stage of the cycle. The sun is just getting its act together post minimum. Its a long way yet to the maximum and is far from bristling with dozens of crackling spots.

Edited by kar999
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