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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

there was Aurora acitivity in lewis night missed it though :diablo:

I did say! Posted Image

Netweather link

Don't despair milkmaid, I'm quietly confident there will be more aurora opportunities in the coming days up your way, The sun has been frequently spitting out C class flares, the culprit being a complicated looking tangle of sunspots currently on the earth facing side of the sun. At least one of these flares should be geoeffective when it reaches earth on Sunday-Monday.

Not a bastille day type event by far but possibly a quiet display like what occurred last night.

post-12654-080436300 1289586548_thumb.gi

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT, THE EPIC BLAST: On Dec. 6th, a magnetic filament stretching more than 700,000 km around the sun's southeastern limb erupted, producing a blast of epic proportions. Earth was not in the line of fire. Click to view a must-see movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

Worth keeping an eye on the geo activity over the coming hours, the magnetometer at crooktree has just taken a major dip, could be a northern opportunity for late geminids and auroras 2 for 1.

http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/rt_activity/

Nice trade off for standing out in -5c

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Layman's count has noted the second spotless day and the 10.7 Flux remains very flat. The sun is sleeping and still showing no signs of waking up.

Remeber these guys called for a severe northern hemisphere winter back in July!!!! Do they know something we don't!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Yeah the officials are doing there best to not record a spotless day. Currently gave a count of 12 for today. I can't even see a spot, & as you say the laymens count has it a 2 day's blank which is truely remarkable. Solar flux should dip below 80 tomorrow as well.

The sun is still sleeping.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Spaceweather.com has now called the last two days spotless with laymans count on 4 days. Flux levels very quiet the sun is truly sleeping. So much for the ramp up in activity!!!If this continues I dread to think what next winter will be like

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

It's just plain crazy. The sun should be ramping up now, yet it can barely get started.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

It's just plain crazy. The sun should be ramping up now, yet it can barely get started.

I Agree and another day is spotless on both counts. Several more days to come I think. Flux remains remarkably low for what should be 12 months of ramping up.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I was just reading on another site, the last time there was a spotless streak in a minimum when it was supposed to be on the ramp up was the Dalton & Maunder minimums.

Not sure how true this, but interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Nice little run of blank day's.

Currently on 4 with a flux reading of 78.

But it looks like the run will end with a new spot trying to form.

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Nice little run of blank day's.

Currently on 4 with a flux reading of 78.

But it looks like the run will end with a new spot trying to form.

I think the count should be 5 as its showing the sun spotless on the 22nd but spotless number was last updated on the 21st. Whatever true number its still remarkably quiet. Laymans count is on 7

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Funny if we passed the peak already wouldn't it.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Are we still blank? :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

Very interestng times, Sun still showing blank today with possible sunspot forming on lower right which will rotate out of sight anyway. Even thou they are counted now, the proper count that would have been used over the past years would not count sunspots on far side of the sun.

The count now says 28 for xmas day, which is surprising as can not see reason for that count.

Those enjoying the current cold spell must be excited by the fact that the sun is still sleeping soundly with no sign of it waking up. I have kept the hathway predictions as the goal posts have been moved, the latest is extremely low.

There have been some Meto staff taliking about the cold spell on the news recently and they were asked could this be the normal winters now, It was refreshing to see them actually mention the low solar min, and state that it could effect our winters in the near future. Its not a full admission but at least its being recognised. It looks like this could become an issue if the sun does not wake up. Originally the Peak was supposed to be 2011 or 2012 with an average 11 year cycle. So we could be facing a peak now or very near one. remarkable to think you could have 6 days + of no sunspots in a peak!!!

I think its possible that peak will be towards end of the coming year with max of about 80 sunspot count. That would make our climate very interesting for the next 20 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I think Hathway is now totally discredited and he needs to re-examine his method for prediction. Until he does any prediction he makes can be discounted.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

GEO-STORM WATCH: A geomagnetic storm is brewing. The sun's magnetic field near Earth tipped south during the early hours of Dec. 28th, opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind pouring in could spark bright Northern Lights around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Currently kp5.

post-12654-0-06685400-1293553061_thumb.g

Edited by GeorgeWX
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Posted
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark

First let me emphasize I know little of these matters, so I am not postulating any particular opinion.

Reading through this forum's many posts, it seems many people consider solar activity a very significant factor in our weather, and I can understand that the energy affecting our atmosphere comes mostly from space, though a little must also originate within the planet. I therefore looked at accepted theory, and found that solar irradiation of the Earth's surface only varies by 0.5%. Sunspots darken the sun's disc, reducing certain emmisions, but other sunspot associated phenomena almost fully compensate for the darkening, which is why the total irradiation varies so little.

I can understand that the quality of solar irradiation can change. Can someone please put this in a nutshell for me? Am I to gather that 0.5% variation in solar irradiation at ground level really causes so different winters as 2006, 2009/10/11? If the surface level irradiation varies so little, then so must irradiation of the stratosphere vary little too.

One more thing I am struggling to understand, is that in Denmark where I live, 1981 gave the lowest ever recorded December temperature of -27.6, and December 2010 - that is 29 years later - we almost equalled that cold record . Now how does this deep cold fit in with solar cycles? I can't see it myself. :cc_confused:

Help appreciated.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

First let me emphasize I know little of these matters, so I am not postulating any particular opinion.

Reading through this forum's many posts, it seems many people consider solar activity a very significant factor in our weather, and I can understand that the energy affecting our atmosphere comes mostly from space, though a little must also originate within the planet. I therefore looked at accepted theory, and found that solar irradiation of the Earth's surface only varies by 0.5%. Sunspots darken the sun's disc, reducing certain emmisions, but other sunspot associated phenomena almost fully compensate for the darkening, which is why the total irradiation varies so little.

I can understand that the quality of solar irradiation can change. Can someone please put this in a nutshell for me? Am I to gather that 0.5% variation in solar irradiation at ground level really causes so different winters as 2006, 2009/10/11? If the surface level irradiation varies so little, then so must irradiation of the stratosphere vary little too.

One more thing I am struggling to understand, is that in Denmark where I live, 1981 gave the lowest ever recorded December temperature of -27.6, and December 2010 - that is 29 years later - we almost equalled that cold record . Now how does this deep cold fit in with solar cycles? I can't see it myself. :cc_confused:

Help appreciated.

Hi Alan

The following site has a wealth of information on how and why the suns activity may affect our climate. You will need to look around the site but it is avery interesting place to start

http://www.landscheidt.info

Jon

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

First let me emphasize I know little of these matters, so I am not postulating any particular opinion.

Reading through this forum's many posts, it seems many people consider solar activity a very significant factor in our weather, and I can understand that the energy affecting our atmosphere comes mostly from space, though a little must also originate within the planet. I therefore looked at accepted theory, and found that solar irradiation of the Earth's surface only varies by 0.5%. Sunspots darken the sun's disc, reducing certain emmisions, but other sunspot associated phenomena almost fully compensate for the darkening, which is why the total irradiation varies so little.

I can understand that the quality of solar irradiation can change. Can someone please put this in a nutshell for me? Am I to gather that 0.5% variation in solar irradiation at ground level really causes so different winters as 2006, 2009/10/11? If the surface level irradiation varies so little, then so must irradiation of the stratosphere vary little too.

One more thing I am struggling to understand, is that in Denmark where I live, 1981 gave the lowest ever recorded December temperature of -27.6, and December 2010 - that is 29 years later - we almost equalled that cold record . Now how does this deep cold fit in with solar cycles? I can't see it myself. :cc_confused:

Help appreciated.

Hi Alan,

I think, in short, that the variables that affect our climate are so many and diverse, a movement in one has a knock on effect further down the line. Your figure for variation in Total Solar irradiance (TSI) is, if anything high, with the actual measured being more like 0.1% and many people have postulated that this is too little to affect our climate, and, in itself, it probably is.

However (posh way of saying "but"), it isn't the complete story, TSI measures visible wavelengths, the variation in Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) is much larger. EUV varies by as much as 18% from the measurements we have for it, with the sun's EUV output being much lower during the change from one cycle to another, or during a weak cycle as we currently have. EUV has the effect of exciting atoms and molecules of gas high in the Atmosphere, the Upper Stratosphere and above, indeed, with the current slump in EUV, the atmosphere, from surface to space, is less thick, and low orbit satellites have less atmospheric friction to decay their orbits (even at 100+ miles up!!). The immediate consequence of this is the the atmosphere exerts a greater pressure at sea level, although in reality it's a miniscule difference. As we go up the atmosphere to the 30mb or the 10 mb levels in the Stratosphere, the effects are compounded and these levels may be significantly lower than during solar maxima. There is a degree of Stratospheric/tropospheric coupling, basically meaning what happens in the Troposphere (where we get our weather) can affect the Stratosphere and vice versa. Look up "Rossby Waves Breaking" on Google ( don't use Wikipedia unless you like maths).

You also have the Albedo of the Earth to consider. Research shows that during Solar Cycle minima, the "Solar Wind" is much weaker and we get a greater number Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) hitting the upper atmosphere. The increased bombardment of GCR's causes a larger number of neutrons hitting molecules in the lower atmosphere, causing ionisation which itself leads to greater cloud formation. The increased amount of cloud is more effective at reflecting Solar radiation from high in the atmosphere and therefore leads to an overall cooling of the lower atmosphere

As mathematicians have great difficulty solving equations with more than a single variable, if you look at all the variables in our weather, two things stand out, first, any differences would have to be modelled to define what will happen, and our computing power and the models we use are nowhere near powerful enough and secondly, many of these variables are themselves linked by positive, or negative, feedback loops which either reinforce a small change or perhaps nullify a large change, so ACCURATE prediction is, I think unlikely. We may be able to define trends, but for that you need reliable data, reliably reported. 400 years, is, I think, too short a timebase to make world changing prognostications

Sorry it's so long

Gary

I think Hathway is now totally discredited and he needs to re-examine his method for prediction. Until he does any prediction he makes can be discounted.

I agree, but it doesn't stop them....

A new prediction is out, here, now likely peak to be about 60 in 2013 according to NASA, quite a climb down from the original prediction of about 180.

And 10.7 Flux is still well down on where it should be, only 84.7 average yesterday

Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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Posted
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark

As mathematicians have great difficulty solving equations with more than a single variable, ......

Sorry it's so long

Gary

Gary, thank you, that was most informative. I am not sure what you mean about equations with more than one variable, Gauss was a wizard at it, and we now carry out finite element modelling as though it is nothing at all. I myself have no problem solving 3 equations with 3 variables by hand, and I have no doubt that given time I could do 10 or more.

But I think I see your point. The business is highly complex. Did you have any thoughts about the elapsed time between harsh winters 1981 and 2009/10 and Hale cycles by the way? i don't see how the timescale fits.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

Gary, thank you, that was most informative. I am not sure what you mean about equations with more than one variable, Gauss was a wizard at it, and we now carry out finite element modelling as though it is nothing at all. I myself have no problem solving 3 equations with 3 variables by hand, and I have no doubt that given time I could do 10 or more.

But I think I see your point. The business is highly complex. Did you have any thoughts about the elapsed time between harsh winters 1981 and 2009/10 and Hale cycles by the way? i don't see how the timescale fits.

Many people were taking last winter 2009/10 as a hale winter, and I agree, the timescale doesn't fit. one of the resident mathematician on Netweather (Village Plank) may be able to say more about correlation on timescales.

and yes, you are right about the mathematics analogy, was weak

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