Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Anti-Mild]

Has there been an updated prediction from NASA wrt SC24? The most recent one I can find is for July.

[picog]

Has there been an updated prediction from NASA wrt SC24? The most recent one I can find is for July.

I haven't seen one. Here's the latest clutch of spots courtesy of solarcycle24.com

[jonboy]

Don't you mean specks

[Mondy]

You mean 1103 is a "speck"?

Spaceweather.com et al seem to think differently....nice CME from it, that's for sure!

[mettalfabrik]

don,t know how clear it is oop north ,but looking good for some AURORA activity

cheers

[jonboy]

The sun is again spotless today. Activity is still at a very low level and looks to continue in this vein for a little while yet

[Mondy]

A new sunspot may be forming

[jonboy]

The phrase 'maybe forming' does not mean any is present. The laymans count has called the last two days spotless. At least they try and call based on how sun spots where measured before technology identified every pimple giving a truer feel as to where this cycle is compared to historical records. Sun activity remains at a very low ebb.

[Mondy]

Sun activity remains at a very low ebb.

You don't need to tell me that. I am, though, perplexed why individuals are keen to see a quiet sun. It is a fact the cycle will eventually (already far later than expected) ramp up. What will you do when activity becomes moderate to high?

[jonboy]

You don't need to tell me that. I am, though, perplexed why individuals are keen to see a quiet sun. It is a fact the cycle will eventually (already far later than expected) ramp up. What will you do when activity becomes moderate to high?

Yes activity will increase but compared to what? If activity is only on a par with cycle 5 then we are in for a very cold period indeed which is something I think we should all be very concerned about and would not wish on anyone. We do not understand enough of how our sun works and the effect it has on our climate and the sooner science looks at this area in real depth ( Before anyone shoots me a lot of research is happening but is it enough)then how can we prepare for something that would be beyound most peoples imagination in regard to prolonged deep cold.

I do not wish a deep prolonged quiet sun but I do believe that is what we are getting.

[jethro]

Have there been any new, updated predictions for cycle 24 recently?

[pottyprof]

Have there been any new, updated predictions for cycle 24 recently?

Errrrrrrrr...... Think of a number... Double it.. and times it by 3 them guess the answer...

Bout as accurate as any other guess has been or likely to be..

[jethro]

Well I can't think of a Solar expert that I'd want to pick my lottery numbers.....

Apparently Livingston & Penn are still on course for their 'sunspots diminishing in visibility until they vanish during cycle 25' theory. Wonder if that's what happened during the previous Grand Minimums?

[jonboy]

The sun is again spotless

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

No Sunspots, solar flux at 74, and according to the latest NASA predictions we should be between 25 and 45. Of course, from their earlier predictions, we should be at 90+

I posted the Neutron Count from Oulu in the Polar ice thread, Nuetron count has been consistently high since 2006.

Looks like it will be quiet for a while yet....

[The PIT]

You don't need to tell me that. I am, though, perplexed why individuals are keen to see a quiet sun. It is a fact the cycle will eventually (already far later than expected) ramp up. What will you do when activity becomes moderate to high?

Why shouldn't they. Something different in their life and the effects on our climate could be very interesting.

[jethro]

The Livingston & Penn theory of sunspots possibly disappearing from view by 2016 has been looked at by other solar physicists, attracting favourable reviews:

"It is a very interesting sequence of observations," says solar physicist Scott McIntosh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. The researchers "have carefully analyzed their data and the trend appears to be real," he says.

Solar physicist David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, agrees but with a caveat. "It's an important paper," he says. But the sunspot magnetic field calculations don't take into account a lot of small sunspots that appeared during the last solar maximum. Those sunspots have weaker magnetic fields, which, if not included, could make the average sunspot magnetic field strength seem higher than it really was.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/09/say-goodbye-to-sunspots.html

[ZONE 51]

Can someone tell me, How many sunspots were counted between may to august during spring/summer?. thanks.

[SteveB]

We're all doomed I tell you, we are all doomed.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3145874/Solar-flare-to-paralyse-Earth-in-2013.html

[MR EXTREMES]

We're all doomed I tell you, we are all doomed.

http://www.thesun.co...th-in-2013.html

i like the comment someone made: flares were a fashion killer lmao.

[Gray-Wolf]

We're all doomed I tell you, we are all doomed.

http://www.thesun.co...th-in-2013.html

And I thought Hathaway and co. had pulled back from an energetic solar max this time (on the back of the unexpected long solar min?) I know it only takes one flare (of correct polarity) to cause issues in electricity transmission/satellites but the less frequent they are the longer the odds of an earth facing one going pop?

Anthow ,it's scheduled for Dec 21st 2012..................

Edited September 21, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

And I thought Hathaway and co. had pulled back from an energetic solar max this time (on the back of the unexpected long solar min?) I know it only takes one flare (of correct polarity) to cause issues in electricity transmission/satellites but the less frequent they are the longer the odds of an earth facing one going pop?

Anthow ,it's scheduled for Dec 21st 2012..................

Hathaway has revised his predictions 3 times that I'm aware of, each time lower, so you are correct in him rolling back from an energetic max, but it's the less strong cycles that tend to produce the big Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). It seems a big CME tends to happen when the magnetic lines of force are so interwoven that they "snap" and throw out a pulse of plasma. The CME's that cause most problems have to have a Southerly Bias in the magnetic field the "Bz" component. And to have best effect, needs to have had one go off a little while before to help get the Solar wind up to speed. A normal CME takes about 3 days to get from the Sun to us, if a CME follows another, within about a week, the amount of time to travel to us can be halved.

And, we cannot predict them, so saying it will happen in 3 years is just speculation, not prediction

GW, does the date of the 21st include the 10 days we lost when we progressed from the Julian Calendar to the Gregorian one??

[MR EXTREMES]

And I thought Hathaway and co. had pulled back from an energetic solar max this time (on the back of the unexpected long solar min?) I know it only takes one flare (of correct polarity) to cause issues in electricity transmission/satellites but the less frequent they are the longer the odds of an earth facing one going pop?

Anthow ,it's scheduled for Dec 21st 2012..................

lol dont bank on it.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

lol dont bank on it.

There must be a meme running about these, as this is direct off the BBC News website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/9020059.stm

All part of the catastophists buildup to their disappointment in 2012.

Actually what can they hang things on in 2013?

[SteveB]

I think this is the first time in cycle24 that the flux has gone above 90.

Currently 91. http://solarcycle24.com/