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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

I hadn't realised who Hathaway was Mondy, but I suppose that quote of his was right in one respect...

"It's hard to be sure what's normal and what's not" .

If the "experts" dont know what's going one I think we'll all have to sit back and see what the sun decides to do for itself..... Another X40 earthwards this time maybe? :D:acute:

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Thank you Kar999 very interesting ! I thought the photograph was manipulated until I read down to the caption, never seen one like that before, amazing.

"The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859"" Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning."

All the doomsday films they have been making on viruses and climate change not long before the aurora version comes out, its just hard to believe that something so magical and beautiful can bring our world to chaos.

Hope you still have your film camera at least you can take some photographs of it !

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

I see over on the 'Laymans Count'(they use a method of counting similar to that used before modern technology)they are counting today as spotless and they believe we are again entering another quiet period. If true so much for an active sun

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

So 1100 isn't a spot then?!

Hi Mondy

(Newly NOAA labeled region 1100 (CL202) is the return of 1089 but not making the grade so far. This region will need to grow to make the Recurring Regions Table)

So 1100 isn't developed enough to be classed a spot more a speck and wouldn'y have been counted in days gone by. We certainly have had a period of heightened activity but it has in general been pretty weak and a few spots would not have been counted previously

For those of you who are intrested the site below looks at sunspots and sun activity general from an historical stand point as well as looking at what causes sunspots. At present they predict solar cycle 24 as being similar or slightly below cycle 5 Very quiet indeed

http://www.landscheidt

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Looks developed enough to me. :rofl:

Clearly not enough for landsheidt as they are calling a spotless day

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Thanks jonboy great website http://www.landscheidt.info/ They think it will be another cold winter I see :)

I was having a search yesterday and found that a faradays cage will prevent damage from aurora, as I already have one when would you need to use it ? I take it when the aurora is expected to be seen and not when the flare has first appeared on the sun !?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Thanks jonboy great website http://www.landscheidt.info/ They think it will be another cold winter I see :crazy:

I was having a search yesterday and found that a faradays cage will prevent damage from aurora, as I already have one when would you need to use it ? I take it when the aurora is expected to be seen and not when the flare has first appeared on the sun !?

Yes very intresting if thier thoughts for the northern hemisphere come off. Last two winters would feel mild in comparison. I do think we are heading for a cooler autimn than we have experienced for a long time and the early signs are coming together ie PDO and La nina enhancing the cooling.

May I ask what you use your faraday cage for now?!!

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Landscheidt have again called today spotless whereas spaceweather.com note the 2 noted areas as very quiet.

Spotless will do for me that makes 3 in august.

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

I wouldn't have thought a faraday cage would be much use against cosmic radiation. Airplanes deliberately avoid flying over the poles in solar storms.... I'll have to google..

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I knew I should have put my beans in earlier. Ive been a bit surprised about the effects, I expected the grouse to have a good year as the cold would probably kill the parasites that have been causing them problems but it has also been a good year for several insects ladybirds, swallowtails butterflies and I have never seem as many humming-bird hawk-moths as this year before which I would not have expected.

Well I thought I would rent a lorry and put all my electrical appliances in it :) I just wanted to protect my hard drives as I have lost all my photographs before when I had just started photography and hadnt backed them up, heartbreaking ! I have read that you can use a car as a faradays cage to protect from flares but then I have read on the doomsday type warnings that the electrics in cars will probably be effected !? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Could record our first spotless day for what seems like ages.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Could record our first spotless day for what seems like ages.

Space weather .com has called today spotless. Over on the laymans count it is day 3 spotless. I do think we are now back into a queit period again SC 24 gets quiter and quieter
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Posted
  • Location: Pant, Nr Oswestry
  • Location: Pant, Nr Oswestry

Thanks jonboy great website http://www.landscheidt.info/ They think it will be another cold winter I see :rolleyes:

I was having a search yesterday and found that a faradays cage will prevent damage from aurora, as I already have one when would you need to use it ? I take it when the aurora is expected to be seen and not when the flare has first appeared on the sun !?

It would be ionteresting to know if a faraday cage would be effective protection, if so all our cars should continue to work as the ECUs would be protected inside, if not I'll just have to drive the old Daimler which has carburettors - not really a hardship! Joking aside it would be intersting to know what we could sensibly use to proetct equipment and how much warning we would have.

M

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Space weather .com has called today spotless. Over on the laymans count it is day 3 spotless. I do think we are now back into a queit period again SC 24 gets quiter and quieter

Even though we have had 53 days with spots, the sun has still been quiet, but I am glad to see it spotless again, & the flux has dropped to 78.

I don't see the sun remaining spotless for to long though.

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

It takes about 2 days for a large CME to hit Earth from being ejected from the sun.

This risk assessment report From Zurich is interesting.... Solar Storms: Protecting Your Operations

Against the Sun's 'Dark Side'

Risk of extreme space weather from solar storms is not a totally new or unknown emerging risk. Our

understanding of this risk is based on prior events in last 20-30 years, primarily the 1989 Quebec

blackout and the super storm in 2003.

If the 1989 Quebec blackout and the 1859 Carrington Event are benchmarks for adverse outcomes

from similar solar storm events in the future, the consequences could be greatly magnified due to

our growing dependence on technology, such as electricity, telecommunication and the internet and

the cascading nature of interconnected global economy.

Such a mega risk event does not have any precedence for comparison for the potential severity of

economic and societal impact. Although there are recorded losses from past events that can give

some indications, the severity potential from an extreme space weather event is much greater today.

An extreme space weather event today can be an unrecognized catastrophic risk event due to ever

growing dependence on technology in our interconnected global economy.

The skeptics can ignore any references to 2012 or for that matter any other speficic dates if they wish. The date is irrelevant. The possibility of the event happening is however undeniable as it's happened many times before, most notably and spectacularly in 1859.

Legislation is also in progress in the USA. The advice to power grid companies is to carry transformer spares!

http://www.insidescience.org/policy/1_1451

The GRID Act stipulates that energy companies take more precautions to guard against the highlighted threats. This would include having more spare parts on hand to deal with breakdowns.

Edited by kar999
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Thats more or less the conclusion I have been coming to but from a far more reputable source. If you read the "few examples of prior events" there is no evidence of domestic appliance failure or cars which some doomsday reports have claimed. The research I found from the aurora storm effect point of view reads like doomsday but if you look up how to protect electrical equipment it tends to be unplug and/or put it in a cardboard box and cover with aluminum foil. I can only assume that the aurora storm reports are accounting for the effects of all the people who have not unplugged their electrical items as the biggest threat seems to come from the power surge. I would assume that if it was not the case the government would be informing us how we can protect ourselves because there is no point in telling people at the last minuet.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

A little run on blanks day's from our Sun, 3 and counting. Solar flux down to 75.

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

Is that spot that has just emerged over the eastern limb a new one or an old one revisited?

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

A little run on blanks day's from our Sun, 3 and counting. Solar flux down to 75.

It's amazing that we can have a flux level of 75 the 'late' into a cycle, was climbing quite nicely for a while, but I think it struggled to get over 90 (was 92 the highest in that last run?) and now it's back at minima levels. It's a strange cycle

Is that spot that has just emerged over the eastern limb a new one or an old one revisited?

Wasn't showing on Stereo, so I'd assume a new boy
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

It's amazing that we can have a flux level of 75 the 'late' into a cycle, was climbing quite nicely for a while, but I think it struggled to get over 90 (was 92 the highest in that last run?) and now it's back at minima levels. It's a strange cycle

Wasn't showing on Stereo, so I'd assume a new boy

Have we got over 90 solar flux in Cycle24?

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