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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

You mean Joanne of course??????????????

Nope, it's definitely Joanna :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Looks as though that CME is heading towards us after all!

http://spaceweather.com/

The solar eruption of August 7th might affect Earth after all. Newly-arriving data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a CME heading our way with a significant Earth-directed component.

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

Tonight's the night if it triggers a storm. Keep a keen eye on the KP index if you're way 'up North (and the skies are clear).

Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (10 August) due to the expected arrival of the CME observed on SOHO EIT on 07 August. This CME was associated with the M1/2f flare at 07/1824Z. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August) due to the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected on day three (12 August).

Edited by kar999
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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.

Tonight's the night if it triggers a storm. Keep a keen eye on the KP index if you're way 'up North (and the skies are clear).

Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (10 August) due to the expected arrival of the CME observed on SOHO EIT on 07 August. This CME was associated with the M1/2f flare at 07/1824Z. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August) due to the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected on day three (12 August).

Not sure what I'm looking at on the KP index, but this graph has a spike on it recently...

Posted Image

Does that mean anything? Skies should be clear for many in the north tonight IF anything happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

That's the x-ray flux which basically shows the real time activity of the sun. The spikes are usually an indictor of flares. C and above are strong ones. A strong M class or X class and a subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)pointing earthward is what is usually required to produce Aurora at more Southern Latitudes.

The KP index is the one to watch as it basically indicates magnetics disturbances on Earth. The higher the index the more chansc of a geomagnetic storm and visible Aurora.

I hope that helps....

Curently nothing much is going on. This image should update in real time.

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.

That's the x-ray flux which basically shows the real time activity of the sun. The spikes are usually an indictor of flares. C and above are strong ones. A strong M class or X class and a subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)pointing earthward is what is usually required to produce Aurora at more Southern Latitudes.

The KP index is the one to watch as it basically indicates magnetics disturbances on Earth. The higher the index the more chansc of a geomagnetic storm and visible Aurora.

I hope that helps....

Curently nothing much is going on. This image should update in real time.

Thanks for that, I'll be watching with interest.

Looking forward to solar maximum, I remember reading it could be the strongest for 50 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Just to give you the website again that gives the Kp for the northern lights...

My link

did that linky work guys?

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Just to give you the website again that gives the Kp for the northern lights...

My link

did that linky work guys?

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

Gives a direct link to the current Kp index, Last flare (M1)was a non event by the looks of it. As Mondy says, Kp7 or above and we can get excited, normally a direct hit from an X class flare will do it. X10 and we are really cooking :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

X10 and we are really cooking :D

Quite literally if you are a power transformer! :D

Folks, dont forget the sticky topic thread above for links... add more if you find them...

Aurora-sun-activity-resources-thread

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Thanks for that, I'll be watching with interest.

Looking forward to solar maximum, I remember reading it could be the strongest for 50 years.

Will that put back the commencement of the much-predicted global cooldown a little further still, I wonder?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Will that put back the commencement of the much-predicted global cooldown a little further still, I wonder?

I certainly don't think it would help.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

I think the prediction for the strongest max in years has been revised, a much quieter cycle is now expected by many.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Minor Proton event now underway after today's C4.4 flare. A good sign that a CME is on the way too. Although it is only C4.4 and I hope the press don't over-do this again.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Actually, it's more than likely nobody knows, even solar scientists. It's all hyperbole. Let's just watch and see what the sun does. SC24 has started properly now. Sunspot count of 66 recently isn't bad at all for the very beginning of an upsurge..

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Actually, it's more than likely nobody knows, even solar scientists. It's all hyperbole. Let's just watch and see what the sun does. SC24 has started properly now. Sunspot count of 66 recently isn't bad at all for the very beginning of an upsurge..

you're right no-one knows for sure.

But it has been a late, slow start to a cycle and statistically, they tend to be weaker (SC5 currently a decent comparison on solar flux output)

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

SFI is currently 85. Slowly but surely climbing. Remember the doldrums of one year ago when it was 64/65?

If it reaches in 100 in a few weeks, then the stats from previous years can go out the window. The sun has a mind of its own and nobody can forecast its next stage. So many eggs on faces with SC24 so far..

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

The sun has a mind of its own and nobody can forecast its next stage. .....

It doesn't matter whether it's solar minimum or whether it's going to be a strong or weak solar maximum. The sun can let rip with massive potentailly devastating X-Class flares and CME's at any time of a cycle.

As just one example, region 10930 blasted out X-class flares near the solar minumum on Dec 6 2006. One being an X6.5 flare.

This graph is a bit out of date but still applicable.....

Posted Image

"It's hard to be sure what's normal and what's not," notes Hathaway. "Astronomers have been observing x-rays from the sun for only 35 years--or three solar cycles. We can't draw good statistical conclusions from so few data."

One thing is certain, though: flurries of solar activity can happen at any time. The next time, says Hathaway, could be just a week or so away.

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

I heard that x class flares could destroy electrical equipment etc. How can you protect them ? Does storing them in a fireproof safe do anything to offer protection against flares ?

I think a good old fashioned lead lined bag would be more useful.

I still have one of those that I used to put my rolls of 35mm film in when going through airport security X-ray machines.

I doubt if they would be allowed nowadays for security reasons even if I still used 35mm film.... those were the days!

Here's an interesting link... The full report, if you have time is well worth a read.

Severe Space Weather--Social and Economic Impacts (Source NASA)

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

It doesn't matter whether it's solar minimum or whether it's going to be a strong or weak solar maximum. The sun can let rip with massive potentailly devastating X-Class flares and CME's at any time of a cycle.

As just one example, region 10930 blasted out X-class flares near the solar minumum on Dec 6 2006. One being an X6.5 flare.

This graph is a bit out of date but still applicable.....

Posted Image

"It's hard to be sure what's normal and what's not," notes Hathaway. "Astronomers have been observing x-rays from the sun for only 35 years--or three solar cycles. We can't draw good statistical conclusions from so few data."

One thing is certain, though: flurries of solar activity can happen at any time. The next time, says Hathaway, could be just a week or so away.

This is the same Hathaway who consistently changes his views on this particular cycle. It's well documented elsewhere. Hence the egg on face comment.

Am aware an X flare can occur at any time and recall the X28 a few years ago (some put it at X40+) and a few other X-rated ones (!) but as far as this cycle prediction is going, I mean nobody knows.

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