Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Kentish Kiwi]

Probably a silly question, but will this storm have any effect at all on UV levels over the coming day/s?

[Mondy]

The K-index is now at 6.

Although the Bz component is tilting south, the solar wind isn't yet that fast (in solar wind standards.

I have seen the Northern Lights overhead here once in 2005 (after a considerably bigger CME than this one). The K-index then reached a wonderful 9, with the Bz and solar wind all coming together to produce that.

If nothing occurs from this I go with my original hunch and that was media-overhype, with the majority of the public not familiar with how these things can (or can't) pan out.

[Geordiesnow]

No danger of any Northern Lights far south. Probably unlikely fas ar north as Shetland too!

The media reporting of this "event" has been way OTT.

And it will be too cloudy by the looks of it aswell for most people so even if it is a "spectacular event" you are not going too see much. Oh well, i shall have a look anyway!

[conor123]

oh poop, sat24 shows a lot of low cloud feeding down into the cheshire gap....this could spoil things

Not a surprise really, for ages we've had generally overcast days and things always typically cleared up at night then typically tonight the cloud just keeps piling in

[Costa Del Fal]

Still very clear here. Looks like some cloud from the NW but doesnt look like the very thick cloud so it could easily break i suppose.

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst i do not believe we will see true proper northern lights, i think we might see something that might still amaze us because for most people i'm sure(myself included) we have never seen this kind of phonomina so one can hope the cloud breaks up enough to show us what the fuss is all about!

All this stuff about blackout's is scaremongering and only makes you want to read the article further.

[frogesque]

Kp up to 6 but it's still light here. For the UK, generally we need a Kp of 7 or above for a decent show. Kp6 is marginal and you will need very dark skies to see much if anything. It's good to see some activity from the sun heading our way though.

[coldfingers]

Two webcams from Iceland, wonder if they will be worth checking when it gets darker?

http://eldgos.mila.is/tjornin/

http://eldgos.mila.is/lonid/

[chrisb1357]

I think thats as dark as it gets in Iceland at this time of year. Midnight Sun

Two webcams from Iceland, wonder if they will be worth checking when it gets darker?

http://eldgos.mila.is/tjornin/

http://eldgos.mila.is/lonid/

[kar999]

Whilst i do not believe we will see true proper northern lights, i think we might see something that might still amaze us because for most people i'm sure(myself included) we have never seen this kind of phonomina so one can hope the cloud breaks up enough to show us what the fuss is all about!

All this stuff about blackout's is scaremongering and only makes you want to read the article further.

As Mondy says above, all this is current overhype given it's been 5 years or so since we had any decent auroras in the UK and solar activity has been low for years. I remember the days then of X-class flares and CME's every month or so. Geomagnetic storms can wreck devastating havoc but we arent in that sort of territory right now.

The KP is now rising so a storm is likely to be underway but as Mondy & Frogesque says we need something a tad higher than 6 and nearer 9 for a real decent chance of a display this far South.

Edited August 4, 2010 by kar999

[Darren Bown]

I'll be keeping an eye out, although I am in the suburbs, but you never know! Might be the first I've ever seen

[Snowyowl9]

Skies have cleared allowing a good view to the north,and no sign of anything.

Usually the the lights start before midnight giving a false dusk to start the best,all the ones I`ve seen,including april 2000.

But I`ll take a proper look outside now and get used to the dark,unless the cloud has just come bin.

[kar999]

It's a shame the Met Office webcams have stopped. This was from 2005 in the Scottish Borders and the lights were visible here in the Midlands, albeit much lower on the horizon.

Most of the northern Scandanavian aurora webcams are down for the summer due to the perpetual twilight.

BTW it's not my spelling mistake!!

Edited August 4, 2010 by kar999

[A.J]

A lot of cloud here now http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif

clear skies are not far away, should be with us in the next 30 mins or so....lets see if the wait was worth it!

[Snowyowl9]

It's a shame the Met Office webcams have stopped. This was from 2005 in the Scottish Borders and the lights were visible here in the Midlands, albeit much lower on the horizon.

Most of the northern Scandanavian aurora webcams are down for the summer due to the perpetual twilight.

BTW it's not my spelling mistake!!

It is early august very rare to see them now I would`ve thought.

Last time I saw them was twice in spring 2001 but on a fainter scale but curtains of rain and green light to the north in the late evening.

Great view of the stars and milkyway tonight and Jupiter.

Did see a shooting star to the north but nothing else,only distant town lights lighting the sky to the NE.

[A.J]

It is early august very rare to see them now I would`ve thought.

Last time I saw them was twice in spring 2001 but on a fainter scale but curtains of rain and green light to the north in the late evening.

Great view of the stars and milkyway tonight and Jupiter.

Did see a shooting star to the north but nothing else,only distant town lights lighting the sky to the NE.

counted 7 so far, an unusual number in such a small space of time (15 mins)....skies are now mainly clear to the north...Cassiopea & Ursa Major now prominent in the northern skies, but nothing else to report (as of yet)

[TEITS]

Fasinating subject this. Considering the solar tsunami, NASA discovering a hole in our magnetic field, solar storm in 2012/2013, should we be worried about the notorious 21/12/2012 date. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

I tell you what some may laugh, including myself, but some of those youtube videos posted in 2007/2008 make you think. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/whistling.gif

[Costa Del Fal]

Clear skies should prevail here from now on for a while. Shame no northern lights have been discovered yet. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif I think thursday night holds similar chances however all quietens down again after then.

Edited August 4, 2010 by Blizzards

[toggerob]

Clear slot here. Other than the Stars and hue of the Milky Way there's noting to report on Aurora wise. AuroraWatch doesn't have any major activity around Lancs either so it looks like bed for me.

[Backtrack]

Two webcams from Iceland, wonder if they will be worth checking when it gets darker?

http://eldgos.mila.is/tjornin/

http://eldgos.mila.is/lonid/

Have a look on the first cam. Looks like you can see the lights there!

Hi Backtrack

We are slowly climbing up the activity charts, but even at peak (2-5 years away) it will not be in the range that it was in the 90's.

Todays geomagnetic storm is just the result of a sunspot breaking down and the resultant magnetic field throwing 'stuff' in our direction. Interestingly a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is more likely to cause us aggro is it has a southerly magnetic bias, this one has, so there'll be quite a few power engineers with squeaky bums tonight. This is a reasonable size CME, so although we may get some Northern lights, I'd be surprised if it caused too many problems.

For chances of Northern Lights check out http://solarcycle24.com/oval.htm

+1. Thank you so much for your excellent reply! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif

[chrisb1357]

Is this correct that there is another chance tonight of seeing these if conditions are correct.

As reported on here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/7927771/Solar-eruptions-mean-Northern-Lights-could-be-seen-in-Britain.html

[Costa Del Fal]

Tonight is the last chance but if last night is to go by, then tonight probably wont produce.

[Mondy]

What a load of tosh being reported in the Telegraph. Someone needs to inform them that is just plain wrong & misleading reporting.

The K index has fallen from 6 last night to now 3. The solar wind is not even that high and the Bz component is not pointing south. Which makes a mockery of the Telegraph piece. Grrr!

[kar999]

Solar eruptions mean Northern Lights 'could be seen in Britain'

Skygazers in Scotland and as far south as Lancashire and Yorkshire could witness the spectacular aurora if conditions remain clear. Denmark, Germany and America all reported clear sightings of the Northern Lights on Tuesday.

I'm sure if the sky had been clear on Tuesday, when their was a G2 storm in progress, there would have been possible sightings in Scotland and Northern England which are on the same latitude as Denmark and germany.

I think their use of the word "could" let's them off the hook..... August is always a slow month for news!

As you say Mondy the hype should have been and gone on Tuesday. Current conditions are low and forecast to remain so.

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt

:Issued: 2010 Aug 05 1206 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

#

# Geophysical Alert Message

#

Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 August follow.

Solar flux 81 and mid-latitude A-index 31.

The mid-latitude K-index at 1200 UTC on 05 August was 1 (7 nT).

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.

Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

[Roo]

I'm a bit out of date with my links to be able to verify this, but it looks as if we might be in for a little bit of aurora action in the next few days, if we're lucky.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-10880852

EDIT: Oops...posted this in the wrong thread...please remove mods.

Edited August 5, 2010 by Roo