Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

Unfortunately the lay mens count is not the official count. And records will show 1082 as a official spot. I am not going to rant about this current method of counting, but it is a real shame they couldn't keep it as it were. As they have changed it then they should classify it as a new counting method.

[pyrotech]

Unfortunately the lay mens count is not the official count. And records will show 1082 as a official spot. I am not going to rant about this current method of counting, but it is a real shame they couldn't keep it as it were. As they have changed it then they should classify it as a new counting method.

They have made a total hash of predicting the sunspot cycle 24, Why they can not admit that we still have a lot to learn about our nearest star i do not know.

So they made the predictions and several times moved the goal posts ( thought put that in as world cup is on).

So this new count is perfect for them, they can add what they want to the count as long as they can justify it.

Here is the graph for prediction ( updated to cover the originals they made)

They are struggling to hit the lower end and i would suggest without the new method we would be well below the prediction again.

The only way we can ever improve our knowledge in science is to admit when we are wrong and acknowledge changes. It seems that some departments do not see it like that and would rather make out that they are getting something right when clearly they are not.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

They have made a total hash of predicting the sunspot cycle 24, Why they can not admit that we still have a lot to learn about our nearest star i do not know.

So they made the predictions and several times moved the goal posts ( thought put that in as world cup is on).

So this new count is perfect for them, they can add what they want to the count as long as they can justify it.

Here is the graph for prediction ( updated to cover the originals they made)

They are struggling to hit the lower end and i would suggest without the new method we would be well below the prediction again.

The only way we can ever improve our knowledge in science is to admit when we are wrong and acknowledge changes. It seems that some departments do not see it like that and would rather make out that they are getting something right when clearly they are not.

I couldn't agree with you more, a spot on comment. Think what it would be like with the old style count, rather than these specks, I think it would be under the predicted minimum

[Red Raven]

I'm always drawn to ponder the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics when these questions are raised. Did these specks simply not exist because they where not measured in the past? The crazy but not so fringe view is that the act of measurement creates the existence of these spots.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_interpretation

Edited June 18, 2010 by Red Raven

[cooling climate]

They have made a total hash of predicting the sunspot cycle 24, Why they can not admit that we still have a lot to learn about our nearest star i do not know.

So they made the predictions and several times moved the goal posts ( thought put that in as world cup is on).

So this new count is perfect for them, they can add what they want to the count as long as they can justify it.

Here is the graph for prediction ( updated to cover the originals they made)

They are struggling to hit the lower end and i would suggest without the new method we would be well below the prediction again.

The only way we can ever improve our knowledge in science is to admit when we are wrong and acknowledge changes. It seems that some departments do not see it like that and would rather make out that they are getting something right when clearly they are not.

Agree with all of that plus that headline grabbing story put out by NASA which is no more than scaremongering

and perhaps a way to try and save face.

A solar storm is always a possibility especially towards solar max but with cycle 24 pending towards one of the

weakest cycles for decades and perhaps longer then I would have thought the chances of a destructive solar

storm are far less than would other wise be the case.

It looks as though they will have been way,way off the mark with their cycle 24 prediction but are trying for a

late winner with this nonsense,I get the feeling they are searching in the dark for some sort of credible forcast

that will in some way redeem their credibility when it comes to our unpredictable sun.

[Yorkshiresnows]

Agree with all of that plus that headline grabbing story put out by NASA which is no more than scaremongering

and perhaps a way to try and save face.

A solar storm is always a possibility especially towards solar max but with cycle 24 pending towards one of the

weakest cycles for decades and perhaps longer then I would have thought the chances of a destructive solar

storm are far less than would other wise be the case.

It looks as though they will have been way,way off the mark with their cycle 24 prediction but are trying for a

late winner with this nonsense,I get the feeling they are searching in the dark for some sort of credible forcast

that will in some way redeem their credibility when it comes to our unpredictable sun.

Agree with all the above.

Best stick with the layman's count and compare apples with apples !!!

NASA should just stick with Landscheidt and admit they just don't have the knowledge for accurate predictions.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

Y.S

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Agree with all the above.

Best stick with the layman's count and compare apples with apples !!!

NASA should just stick with Landscheidt and admit they just don't have the knowledge for accurate predictions.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

Y.S

Yes Y.S.,

Couldn't agree more.

Today we do have 2 sunspots 1082 and 1083, 1082 disappeared and has been resurrected

[picog]

Sun still very quiet with no expected change over the next few days. Sunspot 1084 still visible.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

[Gray-Wolf]

No matter how long the 'quiet Sun' continues the uptick will be spectacular! (let it wait 'till winter so we can enjoy the sky shows!!!).

[picog]

No matter how long the 'quiet Sun' continues the uptick will be spectacular! (let it wait 'till winter so we can enjoy the sky shows!!!).

Are you referring to the Northern lights G-W, or something else?

[Crepuscular Ray]

I expect he was.

The spot in the southern hemisphere is interesting in that it appears to be self-contained with its magnetic field re-entering the solar surface around the spot rather than a short distance away via obvious magnetic loops. Presumably, we've just not had the technology to see something like that before. There was an SDO detailed image shown on Spaceweather.com a couple of days ago, but it's been dropped now.

It's also interesting that although the sunspot number still appears v. low, there is other activity, e.g., Saturday's five CMEs, two of which were pretty large (not Earth-directed, though, so not likely to cause any extensive aurorae).

[pyrotech]

I expect he was.

The spot in the southern hemisphere is interesting in that it appears to be self-contained with its magnetic field re-entering the solar surface around the spot rather than a short distance away via obvious magnetic loops. Presumably, we've just not had the technology to see something like that before. There was an SDO detailed image shown on Spaceweather.com a couple of days ago, but it's been dropped now.

It's also interesting that although the sunspot number still appears v. low, there is other activity, e.g., Saturday's five CMEs, two of which were pretty large (not Earth-directed, though, so not likely to cause any extensive aurorae).

Yes but CME's are often just as spectacular during minimum as maximum periods, We could get a devastating CME that causes mayhem during solar Min..

[Polar Continental]

Hi TM, John, TWS, all,

As I have gone completely off topic with this reply, I have stuck this hopefully in the appropriate thread.

Computers are a wonderful tool for us weather buffs, but a word of warning, as you know data can be lost, computer crash etc. Yes we all back up don’t’ we? I hope.

I am obsessed with back-up’s to be honest. Maybe I am just being paranoid , but to be on the safe side I am in the process of transferring all my data to paper as well, this is the ultimate way of making sure your data will remain as safe as humanly possible.

The reason, again it is probably me just being paranoid, but it has happened before and could easily happen again, super solar flares. It happened in 1859, back then it was powerful enough to wipe out telegraph poles, but in today’s world of high tech, the consequences of a solar blast would be unimaginable disastrous. It seems all computer data would be wiped, even on hard drive, memory pen back-ups, possibly CD disc etc.

I would think the powers that be have taken measures to protect there hi tech data, but us mere mortals would probably loose all out electronic data if this were to happen. Hopefully never.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_TzIUlaQok

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The spot in the southern hemisphere is interesting in that it appears to be self-contained with its magnetic field re-entering the solar surface around the spot rather than a short distance away via obvious magnetic loops. Presumably, we've just not had the technology to see something like that before. There was an SDO detailed image shown on Spaceweather.com a couple of days ago, but it's been dropped now.

Hi CR. One of the things that hasn't really been picked up is that the polarity of the 1085 spot is reversed for a cycle 24 spot. I assume that the 'simple' structure mentioned on Spaceweather and Solarcycle24 web sites are because it's a reversed polarity spot. quite how that makes it so quiet I don't know

[Crepuscular Ray]

Hi NNW

It's odd: at first it did look like 1084 had reversed polarity, but as it developed, in the SOHO magnetogram, the white stuff indicating its 'south' pole appeared

round its eastern limb (right-hand as seen on SOHO), which is right for new cycle in the southern hemisphere. The stuff to its west appears not to be directly related.

Spaceweather.com appear to be anticipating the re-emergence of spot 1082 over the western limb with interest.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Spaceweather.com appear to be anticipating the re-emergence of spot 1082 over the western limb with interest.

It looks as though 1082 has grown quite a lot, or at least seems to be quite a bit more active, there have been a couple of big CME's visible over the last few days. It will be interesting to see how it looks when it rotates into view.

I'd based my comment about reversed polarity on a post I'd seen quite early on, so I'm at fault for not checking any updates

[remymartin]

Due to the benign weather around my parts at the moment . I looked to the heavens for excitement and guess what , we might get a decent solar storm.

http://spaceweather.com/

http://solarimg.org/files/realtime/

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html

Very interesting stuff.

[picog]

Apparently any explosion within sunspot 1087 as it rotates back into view could send a CME earthwards!

solarcycle24.com

[Fozfoster]

Is the sun spot count still low, anyone! sorry wrong thread

Edited July 22, 2010 by fozfoster

[Beverley Lass]

Ooo might we see an aurora here tonight !?

'Solar Tsunami to hit Earth'

Sounds exciting. But looks cloudy at the mo.

BL

Edit: Oops sorry, put this in the wrong place I see !

Edited August 3, 2010 by Beverley Lass

[PersianPaladin]

Hi TM, John, TWS, all,

As I have gone completely off topic with this reply, I have stuck this hopefully in the appropriate thread.

Computers are a wonderful tool for us weather buffs, but a word of warning, as you know data can be lost, computer crash etc. Yes we all back up don’t’ we? I hope.

I am obsessed with back-up’s to be honest. Maybe I am just being paranoid , but to be on the safe side I am in the process of transferring all my data to paper as well, this is the ultimate way of making sure your data will remain as safe as humanly possible.

The reason, again it is probably me just being paranoid, but it has happened before and could easily happen again, super solar flares. It happened in 1859, back then it was powerful enough to wipe out telegraph poles, but in today’s world of high tech, the consequences of a solar blast would be unimaginable disastrous. It seems all computer data would be wiped, even on hard drive, memory pen back-ups, possibly CD disc etc.

I would think the powers that be have taken measures to protect there hi tech data, but us mere mortals would probably loose all out electronic data if this were to happen. Hopefully never.

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_TzIUlaQok

I think there are ways that we can act now in order to prevent this from becoming a catastrophe.

Shielding EVERY electrical device with EMF protectors is not plausible. But what the government can do is to ensure that essential transport-based services, oil refineries, mobile-refrigeration systems for basic food-supplies, neighborhood fuel-trucks, etc are ready and deployable at a regional level, etc.

[Beverley Lass]

Ooo might we see an aurora here tonight !?

'Solar Tsunami to hit Earth'

Sounds exciting. But looks cloudy at the mo.

BL

[Mondy]

Watching this "tsunami" event too. Saw it unfolding Saturday/Sunday and thought "Hmm, interesting if that its earth in a few days"..

I think high latitude, ie Alaska, north Finland, etc may see some cracking northern lights. I doubt we will. Will see what happens.

[kar999]

Looking promising for Northern Scotland.

Keep your eye on the links above.....

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/14968-aurora-sun-activity-resources-thread/page__view__findpost__p__295393

[coldfingers]

Watching this "tsunami" event too. Saw it unfolding Saturday/Sunday and thought "Hmm, interesting if that its earth in a few days"..

I think high latitude, ie Alaska, north Finland, etc may see some cracking northern lights. I doubt we will. Will see what happens.

I thought perhaps to watch the Icelandic webcams but sadly they are as cloudy as we are down the South of England. Not that there is any chance at all of seeing lights down here anyway. I remember one year it was visible from east Anglia northwards so who knows, perhaps someone on here will see something. Pray for clear skies! Will the effect last longer than one night does anyone know?