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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

This is from October last year so apologies if you've all seen it before.

Hathaway predicting cycle 24 will be half the strength of the last 3 - 4 cycles but also admitting his instinct says it could be even smaller still.

http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/

He has changed his mind as often as he changes his socks. I would give him credit for admitting he got it wrong, if I thought he would give credit to those who appear to have got it right? We shall have to wait and see.....

Did someone mention Dickensian Winters and snowdrifts? :( Bring it on! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I really don't waste too-much time on all these Solar predictions, noggin - for the very reason you suggest!

One 'expert' gets a hit, another a miss...Hit, miss, hit, miss...It really is a very young science??? :(

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Update - Largest Flare of Cycle 24 - Three M-Flares including an M6.4 has taken place around Sunspot 1045. The flare at 03:19 UTC Sunday is the largest solar flare of Cycle 24 thus far. Any earth directed explosions could trigger geomagnetic storming. The latest blast has triggered an R2 Radio blackout which could temporarily degrade HF communications on the sunlit side. More to come.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/ Edited by Mondy
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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Looking good Mondy! :)

A direct smack from an M6.4 might just about do it! Now all we need is some clear skies - who's nicked the sun? :(

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Posted
  • Location: Clifton, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but dull cloud
  • Location: Clifton, Bristol

M6.4 :] hope we get an earth directed X class some day soon, after Years of Nothing, what would it take to get major Geomagnetic storming?

January 2010 only had 2 blank days, so far none February, i think this year is seeing change at last.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

M6.4 :] hope we get an earth directed X class some day soon, after Years of Nothing, what would it take to get major Geomagnetic storming?

January 2010 only had 2 blank days, so far none February, i think this year is seeing change at last.

id forget solar minimum for now start looking at yellowstone omg i know we like cold but this could be just a little chilly.

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Posted
  • Location: Clifton, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but dull cloud
  • Location: Clifton, Bristol

id forget solar minimum for now start looking at yellowstone omg i know we like cold but this could be just a little chilly.

Start looking at yellowstone? what about yellowstone?

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Start looking at yellowstone? what about yellowstone?

well it become a little active lately,

i sopose abit like our sun lol.

i wanted to ask a question even if activity like today on our sun is this still below the norm in other words is it still low in respect to cycle 23 22 and so on cheers?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

well it become a little active lately,

i suppose abit like our sun lol.

i wanted to ask a question even if activity like today on our sun is this still below the norm in other words is it still low in respect to cycle 23 22 and so on cheers?

Yes even though the sun has become active it is still quiet. Look at Noggins post a couple of pages back and see the comparisons to cycle5.

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Wooohooo! 3 Spots on the Earth facing side of the sun. OK, 1043 is about to disappear over the limb but it's been a long time since we've seen this much activity.

Could do with some in the Southern hemisphere though. Still fell quiet in that quarter :)

Edited by frogesque
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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

Yes even though the sun has become active it is still quiet. Look at Noggins post a couple of pages back and see the comparisons to cycle5.

Compared to what it was like last year, I'm not sure that quiet is the right term for this stage in the solar cycle; after all, we're a while away from maximum and the succession of active areas/spots emerging over the last couple of days seems to imply that activity is building up rapidly. I missed the 1987 aurora over London and want to see the next one!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Is sunspot 1047 a little strange, I was reading on another forum that it might belong to cycle23?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The sun has gone wild recently with sunsports appearing all the time! The solar flux has also rocketed! Not good news if like me, you have enjoyed the quietness over the last year or two.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

The solar flux reached a high of 95.5 with a daily average of 94 on Monday. This is a new record for Cycle 24. The sunspot number was 71. This is also a new record.

Great news and tough on those who liked a quiet sun http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

We just need a couple of earth facing X classes before the light nights so we have the chance of a light show to remind the 'quiet sun'ers' of what we've been missingPosted Image

I can't see the gig with a quiet sun myself.....maybe 'because there's nowt to see???

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

71 spots, wow. Keep eyes peeled for extreme worlwide weather events...intense cold snow NH and intense heat SH. Could see some very newsworthy weather reports over the next week.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

We just need a couple of earth facing X classes before the light nights so we have the chance of a light show to remind the 'quiet sun'ers' of what we've been missingPosted Image

I can't see the gig with a quiet sun myself.....maybe 'because there's nowt to see???

That's nice for you, thanks for sharing.

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

We just need a couple of earth facing X classes before the light nights so we have the chance of a light show to remind the 'quiet sun'ers' of what we've been missingPosted Image

I can't see the gig with a quiet sun myself.....maybe 'because there's nowt to see???

A quiet sun.

As ever, only TIME will tell.......................... :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Clifton, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but dull cloud
  • Location: Clifton, Bristol

there is now a 10% chance of major storming in the next 48 hours, the highest in a longgg time, more so if 1046 produces a powerful M class or X possibly.

Monster M 8.3 flare earlier - now largest of SC24 :-)

it was rather short lived, a longer lasting M.8 could have bigger impact i recon.

The solar flux reached a high of 95.5 with a daily average of 94 on Monday. This is a new record for Cycle 24. The sunspot number was 71. This is also a new record.

Great news and tough on those who liked a quiet sun :rofl:

quiet sun was pretty boring last 3 years.

Edited by OldGreggsTundraBoy
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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

looking at the current aurora oval on spaceweather i see it just below 60.0N I hope you guys up the top end have some clear skies tonight might be worth having a look out side

Edited by blackdown
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