Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

Yeah, but some like it hot, hot, hot!

Let's see that sun with more spots than a nerdy 15yr. old!

No No No, if indeed the sun cycles influence our climate & therefore minimums mean colder Winters, then I hope for the deepest minimum & quietest Sun.

[Mondy]

Sunspot numbers for December 17 through 23 were 24, 20, 43, 42, 42, 26, and 23 with a mean of 31.4. 10.7 cm flux was 86.9, 84.2, 81.7,

83.7, 82.7, 82.2, and 78.4 with a mean of 82.8

[Fozfoster]

I think we need six spotless days to beat 2008.

It's not going to happen

Its closer than alot of people would have expected

[laserguy]

Back to 'square one'.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Getting chilly out (nope,not some cryptic reference to making a curry) .

[SteveB]

Yep the Sun is blank again after that bad attack of the

spots.

Solar flux is down to 76

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

260 day's blank in 2009 72%

http://spaceweather.com/

[BARRY]

A new sunspot has emerged, So the chances of beating last years total has gone i think, But what is 6 days, It shows that we are still in a deep minimum, There are a number of dubious spots that i do not think should have been counted.

[SteveB]

You are probably wright Barry.

[Mondy]

2009 is ending with a flurry of sunspots. So far this month, the visible disk of the sun has had spots 67% of the time, a sharp increase compared to the annual average. Furthermore, all six of December's sunspot groups have been members of new Solar Cycle 24. These numbers could herald the sun's awakening from the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century and a livelier sun in 2010.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Gray-Wolf]

Let's hope for an explosion of activity for the start of 2010!

I've missed the option of seeing an Aurora so much my favorite viewing point at the top of the garden is overgrown!!!

[SteveB]

Let's hope for an explosion of activity for the start of 2010!

I've missed the option of seeing an Aurora so much my favorite viewing point at the top of the garden is overgrown!!!

I am hoping for a long & deep minimum.

[Don]

I am hoping for a long & deep minimum.

Yep, me too. The longer it continues, the better IMO!

[Gray-Wolf]

Yep, me too. The longer it continues, the better IMO!

All good things come to an end guys and over at Space Weather they have a graph that shows quite well how much busier the sun is now becoming.

When I've looked at other solar cycles the shift into the cycle seem quite fast so I'd expect the next 6 months to really take off with the chance of some mighty CME's pointed our way (oh for the flickering green on the Northern Horizon!).

[Mondy]

Yeah, GW - if this chart dispells the ramping up of SC24, then I'm a NASA astronaut

[BARRY]

All good things come to an end guys and over at Space Weather they have a graph that shows quite well how much busier the sun is now becoming.

When I've looked at other solar cycles the shift into the cycle seem quite fast so I'd expect the next 6 months to really take off with the chance of some mighty CME's pointed our way (oh for the flickering green on the Northern Horizon!).

One month don't mean that the minimum is over far from it, I would expect the sun to tick over for the next year, Your only hoping it's the end in case the Arctic ice recovers and throws certain theory's into confusion

[SteveB]

260 blank days for 2009 then.

Heres hoping for a quiet sun in 2010.

[frogesque]

260 blank days for 2009 then.

Heres hoping for a quiet sun in 2010.

Baah! Humbug! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Absolutely not! Need a few X class potshots at the Earth to bring in a wicked 2010

[Mondy]

Except for Christmas day, since December 9 sunspots have been visible every day

[noggin]

Good Morning, peeps, and a very Happy New Year to everybody!

http://www.standeyo.com/NEWS/09_Pics_of_Day/091229.pic.of.day.html

Here is a chart which shows NASA's/Mr Hathaway's latest (December 2009) solar activity prediction compared with the one from March 2009. They are expecting less activity now than they were in March 2009.

Really interesting stuff!

(Although the cynic in me says that if they keep altering it then they can eventually claim that their prediction was right, conveniently forgetting that they are always moving the goalposts!)

[MR EXTREMES]

still very low infact the whole of 2009 was very low considering activity in cycle 23.

i still think the trend will be ofcoarse i think 2010 will see more activity than 09/08 but still way below the beefy activity of cycle 23/22,

already the solar wind has dropped below 300 and this was regular during the quiet time through 08/09,

but flux has been at its highest at around 87 but this to has dropped to 75 not as low as 64 during lastyear but still low considering there is activity.

there was talk of activity on the far side of the sun a few days ago but this seems to have gone,

so when the current group of spots moves out of view blank sun could be possible,

how long a blank sun will last is anyones guess.

but one thing is certain although the recent christmas activity has been a leap up its still way below what is expected,

im hoping 2010 will be similar in activity as 09.

and has the sun effected our climate well im not expert but i think its silly to ignore the suns effect on our climate,

it would seem most want to maintain there grip on our bank balance.

but two years where cold has hit britain with below winter cet in america china and many other cold records being broken with arctic ice standing firm the question needs to be asked.

so for thease reasons i want to see what happens in another 10years time we have cycle 25 which is expected to be near enough spotless,

if cycle 24 is doing this then imagine cycle 25 .

[snowray]

still very low infact the whole of 2009 was very low considering activity in cycle 23.

i still think the trend will be ofcoarse i think 2010 will see more activity than 09/08 but still way below the beefy activity of cycle 23/22,

already the solar wind has dropped below 300 and this was regular during the quiet time through 08/09,

but flux has been at its highest at around 87 but this to has dropped to 75 not as low as 64 during lastyear but still low considering there is activity.

there was talk of activity on the far side of the sun a few days ago but this seems to have gone,

so when the current group of spots moves out of view blank sun could be possible,

how long a blank sun will last is anyones guess.

but one thing is certain although the recent christmas activity has been a leap up its still way below what is expected,

im hoping 2010 will be similar in activity as 09.

and has the sun effected our climate well im not expert but i think its silly to ignore the suns effect on our climate,

it would seem most want to maintain there grip on our bank balance.

but two years where cold has hit britain with below winter cet in america china and many other cold records being broken with arctic ice standing firm the question needs to be asked.

so for thease reasons i want to see what happens in another 10years time we have cycle 25 which is expected to be near enough spotless,

if cycle 24 is doing this then imagine cycle 25 .

Here here!!

Of course if things do carry on cooling and we get colder extremes of weather as a result, they will undoubtedly put it down to "climate change" that is still due to man made AGW, but as a result of some new mumbo jumbo science and more stats to back it up!

Pitty we did not beat 2008 just now but still a splendid result none the less, yes, it will be very interesting to see if activity remains low or even lowish in 2010.

Snowray

Edited January 4, 2010 by snowray

[MR EXTREMES]

snowray indeed its low still there is activity on the far side of the sun but from what ive been reading from many its not going to be as active as cycle23 so 24 lower than 23 and then 25 has been predicted to be very low although theres plenty of time for this to change.

i now wonder two cold winters in a row surely this is not a fluke perhapes direct heat is not the reasons but changes in jet stream and other factor could be link to the suns cycle,

i just think if this type of winter continued in years to come then question will be ignoring what could of been in the scientists faces could be deadly.

atleast if we knew now what effect a low sun could have we could be ready.

its been said that the last time activity was very low a mini ice age happened indeed low activity in the past seems to tie in with cooling events.

so could be silly to ingnore this just because a degree of warming has happen due to high activity.

still we will have to wait and see i think 2010 will be atleast 50% more active than 2009 but still well below early 2000s and mid 90s level.

[SteveB]

Yeah first blank day of 2010.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

http://spaceweather.com/

I hope we don't see a spot again for a long time.

But there maybe spots on the far side

[frogesque]

Spots can boil up at any time. Don't rely on one spotless day to predict 2010 totals.

Still hopeing for some decent X class flares and those elusive aurorae.

[SteveB]

Spots can boil up at any time. Don't rely on one spotless day to predict 2010 totals.

Still hopeing for some decent X class flares and those elusive aurorae.

Barhumbug,

Spot formed 1040. That lasted long.

[karyo]

Barhumbug,

Spot formed 1040. That lasted long.

Yes, how ironic! Just as we were hoping for a quiet period.

Karyo