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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Hi Snowray, sunspot 1034 is still hanging in there, but is not very active, may produce some B class flares, but over all remaining quiet.

Solar flux has gone up though to 75, from 71 when it was spotless.

Hi Steve. Looks like things are getting a bit more active then, never know though, could still calm down again before the end of the year maybe. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Hi Steve. Looks like things are getting a bit more active then, never know though, could still calm down again before the end of the year maybe. Posted Image

Solar flux up to 82, spot looks huge. Good job we have 15 day's left of 2009. We need 6 more to level with 2008.

It really is going to be a push.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Solar flux up to 82, spot looks huge. Good job we have 15 day's left of 2009. We need 6 more to level with 2008.

It really is going to be a push.

i dont think we will beat 2008 record.

anyway i just wondered does anyone know what this cycle would need to reach average or above in terms of activity,

im starting to get a little concerned that this could be the start of a uptrend?

ofcoarse id rather it stayed as is has done for the last couple of years,

i think i jinxed our sun.

:):good:

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

latest from SIDC

:Issued: 2009 Dec 16 1242 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU350

UGEOA 30512 91216 1223/ 9930/

11162 20162 30162

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 16 Dec 2009 until 18 Dec 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 001

PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to reach active levels, with risks

of C-class flaring activity from NOAA AR 1035. A C5 flare occurred in

this AR at 01:35UT on Dec. 16th. This region still has potential for

producing new C-class flares. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be

mostly quiet for the next 48 hours.

CHEERS

BLACKDOWN

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Well, at least the sun is trying to wake up. Been a right old sleepy head this last couple of years :air_kiss:

Still a ways off Earth directed X class flares though, and me waiting to get the camera out and snap some auroras. By the time cycle 25 comes round I'll be in me 70's http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

the latest fom SIDC and 1035

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU351

UGEOA 30512 91217 1238/ 9930/

11172 20172 30172

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 17 Dec 2009 until 19 Dec 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 010

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 012

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to stay at moderately active

levels, with risks for C-class flaring activity from NOAA AR 1035. Three

C-class flares occurred on Dec. 16th, the first one being associated

with a partial halo CME. This CME might increase geomagnetic activity

from quiet to unsettled on late Dec. 18th or early Dec. 19th.

cheers

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

solar flux at 88 now possible that one of the flares came from area thats not rotated into view yet

cheers

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU352

UGEOA 30512 91218 1146/ 9930/

11182 20182 30182

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 Dec 2009 until 20 Dec 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to stay at moderately active

levels, with risks of C-class flares from NOAA AR 1035. Geomagnetic

activity is expected to be mostly quiet with risks of isolated periods

of unsettled conditions either late on Dec. 18th or early Dec. 19th. The

reason is the possible effect of the partial halo CME of Dec. 16th.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Sunspot number: 43

it waking up bigtime spot group south hemisphere two in northern very active as suggest flux 82 and solar wind has picked up so has spot numbers.

its not looking good if you want the minimum to continue.

although im not sure if this spell is classed as still low in activity in trems of a minimum.

would the dalton still have this kind of outbreak?

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

it waking up bigtime spot group south hemisphere two in northern very active as suggest flux 82 and solar wind has picked up so has spot numbers.

its not looking good if you want the minimum to continue.

although im not sure if this spell is classed as still low in activity in trems of a minimum.

would the dalton still have this kind of outbreak?

I guess it's kind of like buses, you wait around for ages then 3 appear together! 1035, 36 & 37 :pardon:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

You cannot see 2 of them in the normal spectrum, So is this a ploy to keep sunspot activity going so we don't get more spotless days than last year

Edited by BARRY
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

You cannot see 2 of them in the normal spectrum, So is this a ploy to keep sunspot activity going so we don't get more spotless days than last year

I agree, we should have two separate counts, one involving how spots used to be measured, the other as of now!
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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

I agree, we should have two separate counts, one involving how spots used to be measured, the other as of now!

Time it was sorted out, How do you measure what is relevant to other minimums

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Fair point Barry. Any scientific study would need to measure and compare like for like.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Don't like all this activity, I know some do for radio thingy's, but the sooner it goes quieter the better.

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

Don't like all this activity, I know some do for radio thingy's, but the sooner it goes quieter the better.

Sorry fella, i think it is my fault remember, i asked you how many spotless days to beat last yearPosted Image must still be close.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

All we have left to do is figure whether or not there is a delay in 'activity' and global temps.....LOL

I figure ,like Arctic sea ice gain in winter, the only way is 'up'.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Sorry fella, i think it is my fault remember, i asked you how many spotless days to beat last yearPosted Image must still be close.

I think we need six spotless days to beat 2008.

It's not going to happenPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Don't like all this activity, I know some do for radio thingy's, but the sooner it goes quieter the better.

its still low and dare i say it it looks like staying this way i know what you mean but its slowly calming down again fingers toes crossed lol.

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