Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[karyo]

I am a bit puzzled by this article from the www.spaceweather.com

BLANK SUN: The sun is entering its 41st consecutive day without sunspots. This remarkable string of blank suns shows that we are still in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in a century. If the streak continues for 11 more days, it will match the longest blank spell of the current cycle.

I thought we have already exceeded the record for this current spell?

Karyo

[SteveB]

I am a bit puzzled by this article from the www.spaceweather.com

BLANK SUN: The sun is entering its 41st consecutive day without sunspots. This remarkable string of blank suns shows that we are still in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in a century. If the streak continues for 11 more days, it will match the longest blank spell of the current cycle.

I thought we have already exceeded the record for this current spell?

Karyo

I was just reading that. So we have had a 52 days spotless run in cycle24. I can find no record of it?.

[Methuselah]

Arrrrr yes. Delta X-Ray have we lost 30% of the NAD, if so then things will surely cool down! sorry if off topic

These claims about the NAD 'shutdown' have been doing the rounds for at least the last six years...But, still it carries on pretty-much like it 'always' has???

And - before we all become too excited re the upcoming Armageddon - the Sun hasn't exactly gone-out yet?

[SteveB]

This is an interesting article from the NYTimes

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

[MR EXTREMES]

I am a bit puzzled by this article from the www.spaceweather.com

BLANK SUN: The sun is entering its 41st consecutive day without sunspots. This remarkable string of blank suns shows that we are still in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in a century. If the streak continues for 11 more days, it will match the longest blank spell of the current cycle.

I thought we have already exceeded the record for this current spell?

Karyo

me to karyo im really confused i thought this was the longest in this minimum.

as for the other stuff noticed solar winds have risen a fair bit.

does this mean activity is going to increase ?

still blank now though.

[noggin]

I am a bit puzzled by this article from the www.spaceweather.com

BLANK SUN: The sun is entering its 41st consecutive day without sunspots. This remarkable string of blank suns shows that we are still in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in a century. If the streak continues for 11 more days, it will match the longest blank spell of the current cycle.

I thought we have already exceeded the record for this current spell?

Karyo

I stand to be corrected here, but I understand that sunspots are monitored by quite a few "bodies" and that some of these bodies will give a sunspot number to a "sunspeck", whilst others will only give a number to a fully-blown sunspot. This could account for discrepancies.

PS I believe that NASA actually gave a sunspeck a number some days after it occurred a couple of weeks ago, whereas previously they did not give numbers to sunspecks. That could certainly account for a discrepancy in the current spotless run. Why might they do that, I wonder? Ho hum.......

Edited August 20, 2009 by noggin

[MR EXTREMES]

These claims about the NAD 'shutdown' have been doing the rounds for at least the last six years...But, still it carries on pretty-much like it 'always' has???

And - before we all become too excited re the upcoming Armageddon - the Sun hasn't exactly gone-out yet? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

the sun wont go out ofcoarse,

its my fult i gotta little to excited and started something they may have been a little ott,

but i do have a valid reason to be concerned if it where to continue then we would indeed suffer colder winters,

but because of warming then it would take a longtime for anything really dramatic to happen but it would happen over time.

but as for the spaceweather part i think either there is a mistake or we just missed that part lol dont matter though still very impressive.

[Methuselah]

the sun wont go out ofcoarse,

its my fult i gotta little to excited and started something they may have been a little ott,

but i do have a valid reason to be concerned if it where to continue then we would indeed suffer colder winters,

but because of warming then it would take a longtime for anything really dramatic to happen but it would happen over time.

but as for the spaceweather part i think either there is a mistake or we just missed that part lol dont matter though still very impressive.

No probs, badboy. I was reminding myself too... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

I'd love to see a cold and snowy winter!

[karyo]

I stand to be corrected here, but I understand that sunspots are monitored by quite a few "bodies" and that some of these bodies will give a sunspot number to a "sunspeck", whilst others will only give a number to a fully-blown sunspot. This could account for discrepancies.

PS I believe that NASA actually gave a sunspeck a number some days after it occurred a couple of weeks ago, whereas previously they did not give numbers to sunspecks. That could certainly account for a discrepancy in the current spotless run. Why might they do that, I wonder? Ho hum.......

I think this brings us back to what BFTP mentioned a few days ago. Our technology is a lot more advanced now and can detect even the faintest activity on the sun which was not the case many years ago.

As for sunspecs, I also can't see why they would start to count them all of a sudden!

Karyo

[Solar Cycles]

These claims about the NAD 'shutdown' have been doing the rounds for at least the last six years...But, still it carries on pretty-much like it 'always' has???

And - before we all become too excited re the upcoming Armageddon - the Sun hasn't exactly gone-out yet?

Quite right Pete, it could as easily fire up tomorrow, as continue it's slumber!

[Methuselah]

Quite right Pete, it could as easily fire up tomorrow, as continue it's slumber!

Aye SC...But, it would be better if stayed quiet though, wouldn't it ?

[Solar Cycles]

Aye SC...But, it would be better if stayed quiet though, wouldn't it ?

It certainly would put the cat amongst the pigeons, regarding what caused the prior warming!!

[jonboy]

It certainly would put the cat amongst the pigeons, regarding what caused the prior warming!!

One of the papers linked earlier suggested that its the major planets and their alignment that create the level of sunspot activity and at present the major influencors are countering each other thus the very low activity. If this is the case then it maybe secondary planatery influences that may cause small increases in activity and as such therefore I do not believe that we will see any dramatic increase for the seeable future especially as we head for planetary alignment in 2012.

Once we understand what influences the suns activity then perhaps we will be able to better able to understand our own climate cycles here on earth.

[Mondy]

I'm worried.

Saw the Sun going down over the horizon last night. Damn thing hasn't returned yet :-(

[SteveB]

Moved onto 41 spotless days.

Puts us joint 9th on continuous spotless days since 1849.

[Anti-Mild]

Moved onto 41 spotless days.

Puts us joint 9th on continuous spotless days since 1849.

The Spaceweather website is saying we had 52 spotless days in a row in July, August and September last year - I don't remember this at all!

I just had a brief look at the archives on the Spaceweather site and there appears to have been no activity between 25th June and 23rd September aside from a couple of proto-sunspots - only thing is, that makes 90 days, while the proto-sunspots would make the periods about 40 and 30 days!

[SteveB]

The Spaceweather website is saying we had 52 spotless days in a row in July, August and September last year - I don't remember this at all!

I just had a brief look at the archives on the Spaceweather site and there appears to have been no activity between 25th June and 23rd September aside from a couple of proto-sunspots - only thing is, that makes 90 days, while the proto-sunspots would make the periods about 40 and 30 days!

Yeah I noticed that too, not sure what is going on there.

According to this site http://users.telenet...s/Spotless.html the previous longest spotless run was between July21st & August 20th 2008, 31 days.

But I have read somewhere that there was a question mark over a sunspot on the 21st July 2008. Maybe Spaceweather have doubts over whether it was a true sunspot!.

Edited August 21, 2009 by SteveB

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

42 days spotless, according to spaceweather, solarcycle24 still on 41 because it's America based i believe.

Thought i should add the period between cycles 10-15 [dalton minimum?] averaged 800 spotless days per solar cycle, we're currently on 694... so still over 100 to go before we'll even average a Dalton min. cycle, i imagine for maunder it would be 1,000s, well solar cycle's looked pretty non existent at that point.

Edited August 21, 2009 by OldGreggsTundraBoy

[SteveB]

The Spaceweather website is saying we had 52 spotless days in a row in July, August and September last year - I don't remember this at all!

I just had a brief look at the archives on the Spaceweather site and there appears to have been no activity between 25th June and 23rd September aside from a couple of proto-sunspots - only thing is, that makes 90 days, while the proto-sunspots would make the periods about 40 and 30 days!

Copied this from their website

According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for almost 42 days and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.

If that is the case then http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html need to update their page.

42 days spotless, according to spaceweather, solarcycle24 still on 41 because it's America based i believe.

Thought i should add the period between cycles 10-15 [dalton minimum?] averaged 800 spotless days per solar cycle, we're currently on 694... so still over 100 to go before we'll even average a Dalton min. cycle, i imagine for maunder it would be 1,000s, well solar cycle's looked pretty non existent at that point.

Still at 41 OGTB,they say nearly 42 spotless days

[The Penguin]

This is really interesting, and in its own way quite remarkable. I find it curious, irrespective of possible over-excitement regarding future outcomes releated to weather, that this subject isn't gaining more recognition in the press and media.

(Obviously those of you who are long-time students of matters solar aren't so gobsmacked by current events, but I am, and encouraged to delve deeper.)

[SteveB]

Hi Penguin,

If you look back through previous pages, there are some good links to help you find out more about this current solar minimum and others in the past.

Edited August 21, 2009 by SteveB

[The Penguin]

Yes, thanks SteveB, I have been - but it's the constant diversions into the interweb for background info that's really slowing me down. Still, a fascinating subject. My only reservation is that it would be a shame if the ice-rampers got a bit carried away with themselves to the detriment of a lot of interesting possibilities being taken seriously.

[SteveB]

Well my take on it is, as much as I would like to see cold winters again, I am not sure either way on whether AWG will prevent this or a new solar minimum will deliver. As with most things in life, time will tell.

[Mondy]

This is really interesting, and in its own way quite remarkable. I find it curious, irrespective of possible over-excitement regarding future outcomes releated to weather, that this subject isn't gaining more recognition in the press and media.

(Obviously those of you who are long-time students of matters solar aren't so gobsmacked by current events, but I am, and encouraged to delve deeper.)

SC24.com tends to be the place where news reports do make it: http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=479

SC24.com is Canadian based. I know this because the owner is my buddy Kevin

As an aside, somebody has alread purchased the site name Solar Cycle 25.com already ! Talk about forward planning.

[Typhoon John]

Copied this from their website

According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for almost 42 days and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.

If that is the case then http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html need to update their page.

Still at 41 OGTB,they say nearly 42 spotless days

The reason for the discrepancy is because there are two different counts and the objectiveness involved in measuring the tiny sun-specks. NOAA didn't count the spot in July last year but SIDC did. SIDC are the people who keep the historical record which is what is used in the link you posted.