Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[jethro]

That info and much more can be found here:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html

[Mondy]

At this rate I'll be waiting to count the first SC25 spot

[MR EXTREMES]

yep and theres this to.

http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/opinion0308.pdf

[Typhoon John]

The next milestone will be 41 spotless days (if we get that far). 41 days will take us into the top 10 of spotless day streaks recorded.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

How cold do we want it? This depth of minima is of real concern, it is deeper than anticipated. Is the entrance into a true minima keeping the arctic cold? The ice has held up well and temps have been average to below, is this a knock on effect from entering a true minima along with a jet that is tracking south hence reducing the chances of warm plumes invading up there?

Much to mull over, much to keep monotoring....but longer term it concerns me.

BFTP

Edited August 13, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SteveB]

Moved on to 34 Spotless days.

Was reading David Archibalds papers last night, when he wrote them back in March last year, he thought we were heading for a Dalton type minimum.

Since then we have continued to see many spotless days. Wonder what the current state of play is concerning another Dalton style minimum is.

Edited August 14, 2009 by SteveB

[Typhoon John]

Based on where we were a year ago I don't think the activity today is unexpected.

If December 2008 was the minimum then the current behaviour is typical of what would be expected with the ramp up being similar to the descent. What would throw a spanner in would be if December 2008 wasn't the minimum and activity still has to get lower still. While the 10.7cm solar flux has been dropping since May and August seems to be averaging even less than July I don't think we'll drop back to the 66/67 values from late 08 early 09 so imo the minimum has passed. And in reality this current 34 day run could have easily happened last summer.

Having said that this is very much Dalton like behaviour, but then we've been expecting that for a couple of years, the current situation is just confirmation.

Edited August 14, 2009 by fozi999

[noggin]

How cold do we want it? This depth of minima is of real concern, it is deeper than anticipated. Is the entrance into a true minima keeping the arctic cold? The ice has held up well and temps have been average to below, is this a knock on effect from entering a true minima along with a jet that is tracking south hence reducing the chances of warm plumes invading up there?

Much to mull over, much to keep monotoring....but longer term it concerns me.

BFTP

Hi, Fred. This http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/07statewidetrank.png interested me. I know it is one month only, but the temperatures are extreme.......6 states recorded their coldest ever July. This looks like it has a major cause. There is beginning to be rather too much going on, for it to be coincidence. Southerly jetstream, lower temperature, lack of sunspots/solar activity..........

Edited August 14, 2009 by noggin

[Methuselah]

Hi, Fred. This http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/07statewidetrank.png interested me. I know it is one month only, but the temperatures are extreme.......6 states recorded their coldest ever July. This looks like it has a major cause. There is beginning to be rather too much going on, for it to be coincidence. Southerly jetstream, lower temperature, lack of sunspots/solar activity..........

With all due respect, nog...Aren't you making a similar leap of faith, as do our 'warmist' friends when they put every heatwave, super-typhoon, wet/warm few days etc. down to global warming??

[SteveB]

Does anyone know how many days have been spotless so far this year.

With 2008 having 265 spotless days, lying 4th behind 1913,1901,1878. And 2007 with around 160 spotless days.

I would be interested know how 2009 is doing?.

[karyo]

Does anyone know how many days have been spotless so far this year.

With 2008 having 265 spotless days, lying 4th behind 1913,1901,1878. And 2007 with around 160 spotless days.

I would be interested know how 2009 is doing?.

According to spaceweather.com we have 176 spotless days so far in 2009 which is 78% of the total!

And the number keeps rising...

Karyo

[SteveB]

According to spaceweather.com we have 176 spotless days so far in 2009 which is 78% of the total!

And the number keeps rising...

Karyo

Cheers Karyo,

So out of a total off 226 days so far this year, 176 have been spotless.

[karyo]

Cheers Karyo,

So out of a total off 226 days so far this year, 176 have been spotless.

Yes, very respectable isn't it?

It will be interesting to see whether we beat 2008. In theory we shouldn't (according to the forecast) but it is certainly possible!

Karyo

[noggin]

With all due respect, nog...Aren't you making a similar leap of faith, as do our 'warmist' friends when they put every heatwave, super-typhoon, wet/warm few days etc. down to global warming?? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif

No, no, no, no, no. I am not doing that, Pete. If you were to trawl back through all of my posts over the past few years ( http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif ) you would see that I have consistently said that I consider that the warming has peaked and that we are in the transition to a cooling world. I have also made it clear that I consider that the sun is the driver of the Earth's coolings and warmings. I now think that the transition from warming to cooling is just about finished and that the cooling process proper is starting.

I am certainly not basing what I say on one month's temperatures in the USA.

Honestly, some people..... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/w00t.gif

[Methuselah]

No, no, no, no, no. I am not doing that, Pete. If you were to trawl back through all of my posts over the past few years ( http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif ) you would see that I have consistently said that I consider that the warming has peaked and that we are in the transition to a cooling world. I have also made it clear that I consider that the sun is the driver of the Earth's coolings and warmings. I now think that the transition from warming to cooling is just about finished and that the cooling process proper is starting.

I am certainly not basing what I say on one month's temperatures in the USA.

Honestly, some people..... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/w00t.gif

I'll take your word for that, then?

[SteveB]

We have moved on to 35 spotless days.

Joint 15th in spotless days.

[Stu_London]

We have moved on to 35 spotless days.

Joint 15th in spotless days.

Technically it is joint 21st as there have been 20 more spotless periods since 1860.

Another week of free of spots would elevate us into the top ten

[SteveB]

You are correct.

Wonder why solar cycle23 had 42 spotless days between 13th Sept & 24th Oct 1996

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Based on where we were a year ago I don't think the activity today is unexpected.

No for some of us this behaviour isn't unexpected, but its current depth is. If we carry on as we are then Maunder/Sporer rather Dalton is on [deeper].

Now to remind folks that the current minima ISN'T what its really all about. Its about how quiet it will be when we reach maxima within the Schwabe cycle too. I urge folk to look at Landcheidts research for he foresaw a Maundr style minima ahead [this one will be called Gleissberg due to peak/bottom around 2030 and then a further peak/bottom later much in 21st century thus giving a true minima period.

With reference to sunspot count, one has to question whether we see more now than we would have in the past or not?

BFTP

[karyo]

quote name='fozi999' date='14 August 2009 - 09:06 ' timestamp='1250237193' post='1578951']

Based on where we were a year ago I don't think the activity today is unexpected.

No for some of us this behaviour isn't unexpected, but its current depth is. If we carry on as we are then Maunder/Sporer rather Dalton is on [deeper].

Now to remind folks that the current minima ISN'T what its really all about. Its about how quiet it will be when we reach maxima within the Schwabe cycle too. I urge folk to look at Landcheidts research for he foresaw a Maundr style minima ahead [this one will be called Gleissberg due to peak/bottom around 2030 and then a further peak/bottom later much in 21st century thus giving a true minima period.

With reference to sunspot count, one has to question whether we see more now than we would have in the past or not?

BFTP

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

No for some of us this behaviour isn't unexpected, but its current depth is. If we carry on as we are then Maunder/Sporer rather Dalton is on [deeper].

Now to remind folks that the current minima ISN'T what its really all about. Its about how quiet it will be when we reach maxima within the Schwabe cycle too. I urge folk to look at Landcheidts research for he foresaw a Maundr style minima ahead [this one will be called Gleissberg due to peak/bottom around 2030 and then a further peak/bottom later much in 21st century thus giving a true minima period.

With reference to sunspot count, one has to question whether we see more now than we would have in the past or not?

BFTP

That's a very good question actually, as we now have much more advanced technology! It's possible, that it was difficult to detect small faint sun spots in the past.

Karyo

Edited August 15, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Stu_London]

What is interesting if we do have a significant solar minimum over the next couple of cylces is that it will provide more pieces to the climate jigsaw with regard to the effect that variable solar heating has on the climate.

We should be able to calculate:

1) how much low sunspot activities impact on global temperatures and global sea temperatures

2) how much of the warming of the 20th Century high sunspot activity impacted on these

3) how much background warming was being caused by AGW

We will need data over the next 25 years and I doubt either theory will be proved or disproved outright but we will move forward from what we have at the moment which is theory and opinion. My personal opinion that an element of AGW exists, but that the IPCC was grossly negligent in assuming solar heating to be a constant, will be tested if these minimums come off.

[Anti-Mild]

This lack of activity is very interesting - although not for aurora watchers!!

I am of the same opinion as Fred in that this forthcoming Dalton-type minimum will affect the climate over and above the effects caused by AGW, leading to a period of global cooling, with some parts of the world experiencing this to a greater degree.

Certainly if we continue in the same vein, 2009 will end up with more than 280 spotless days, possibly sneaking into the top 3 all time.

[noggin]

Does anyone know, off the top of their head, what cycles 22 and 23 were like and how long they lasted?

[The PIT]

You are correct.

Wonder why solar cycle23 had 42 spotless days between 13th Sept & 24th Oct 1996

Coz the old sun was tired and needed a rest. Come on keeping you warm and alive and blustering on these forums takes a lot of energy and I need a rest. The sun via The PIT. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif