Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Crepuscular Ray]

NOAA have come up with a new prediction for the current cycle.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29...n.htm?list72553

Boring!

[Mondy]

Same content as the NOAA release on May 8: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/2...solarstorm.html

:-(

[Crepuscular Ray]

Same content as the NOAA release on May 8: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/2...solarstorm.html

:-(

Bah. It's bad enough, without releasing it twice.

[Mondy]

Over on the SC24 forum, Leif Svalgaard (who I respect totally with his thoughts/research) suggest maximum number of spots could be 70. Urghhh!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Over on the SC24 forum, Leif Svalgaard (who I respect totally with his thoughts/research) suggest maximum number of spots could be 70. Urghhh!

where that?

[Mondy]

LINKY :-) Edited May 29, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[Crepuscular Ray]

LINKY :-)

Cheers, m'dear

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/185459-S...one-has-arrived

With regards to a possible Maunder, I dunno. I believe at least a Dalton is on the cards BUT it is cycle 25 that will see first bottom. However, this cycle is even deeper than forecast so a very good start to head us towards a Grand Minima of magnitude.

BFTP

[MR EXTREMES]

this is so exciting apart from the double post by nasa.

but surely there is always a possibility that c25 may not be a minimum at all?

[gigabite]

I think that solar cycle 23 started early as timed from Jupiter’s perihelion, and ran a relatively normal length of time then shut down. If Solar Cycle 24 starts at the normal interval after perihelion the spot count will start to increase nearer to 2011 with a peak in 2013. Since the Sun Jupiter distance is so much closer than it has been in the last few cycles, I think it might be a little premature to call for a low count cycle following this record minimum based on floating out raw Root Mean Square peak kind-of-look.

That isn’t much to go on. Which is the main problem anyhow isn’t it? The bankers must have come with this let’s go to Mars to see if any thing died there plan instead of more solar research.

[karyo]

Another cycle 24 sunspot has emerged: www.spaceweather.com

The signs of increasing activity continue... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

Karyo

[tundra]

Another cycle 24 sunspot has emerged: www.spaceweather.com

The signs of increasing activity continue... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

Karyo

Solar activity is still very low with the solar flux back below 70 again.

[MR EXTREMES]

Another cycle 24 sunspot has emerged: www.spaceweather.com

The signs of increasing activity continue...

Karyo

i know i wanna see a real minimum or atleast see it carry on.

but as tundra said it is still very low,

but gotta bad feeling this cycle may not be as low for much longer gut feeling telling me it might explode into a pretty high maximum by 2013. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

Edited June 1, 2009 by badboy657

[MR EXTREMES]

i know i wanna see a real minimum or atleast see it carry on.

but as tundra said it is still very low,

but gotta bad feeling this cycle may not be as low for much longer gut feeling telling me it might explode into a pretty high maximum by 2013.

the new development sc24 spot it looks bigger than most we have seen for sometime http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif .

i reckon the peak will be sooner than predicted aswell.

Edited June 1, 2009 by badboy657

[noggin]

Could some kind person explain what the solar flux is, please? TA!

[Mondy]

It's becoming a biggie :-)

Noggin - Solar Flux http://www.sci.fi/~fmbb/astro/glossar1.htm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

the new development sc24 spot it looks bigger than most we have seen for sometime .

i reckon the peak will be sooner than predicted aswell.

Gone as quick too. No it won't be a big cycle this one BUT it isn't the predicted deep minima cycle. We are heading that way into cycle 25. Feel a little assured [or not as it could have big implications] that this is a fair bit lower than anticipated

BFTP

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

You guys want solar cycle 24 to be a little'un??! I never thought of actually wanting the sun to be blank. perfect and spotless?

I've been hoping since last year for a ramp up tho.. but the sunspots..they keep dying. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif May and June so far looking a Little better, definitely no carrington event style Aurora's yet though!

Edited June 8, 2009 by OldGreggsTundraBoy

[Typhoon John]

It's my personal preference to experience a deep minimum and I think we are heading that way but it'll be a long process. I do understand the consequences it would have for the World but I still would like to experience it, in the same way that I enjoy seeing floods and hurricanes and volcanic eruptions even though they cause death and suffering.

Edited June 8, 2009 by fozi999

[Mondy]

It may be small, but sunspot 1020 is yet another SC24 which has formed. Activity sure has gained momentum, albeit most of the sunpsots do vanish after a day or two.

[Crepuscular Ray]

It may be small, but sunspot 1020 is yet another SC24 which has formed. Activity sure has gained momentum, albeit most of the sunpsots do vanish after a day or two.

And it's gone again, although there is a fair amount of activity at that latitude on the Soho magnetogram so it looks like something's bubbling beneath the surface. It's interesting that all the SC24 activity appears to be concentrated in the northern hemisphere.

[karyo]

And another sunspot has emerged! www.spaceweather.com

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

And another sunspot has emerged! www.spaceweather.com

Karyo

its also on the southern half of the sun intresting.

[karyo]

Another sunspot has emerged! Not only that, but there is a burst of energy on the eastern side of the sun according to spaceweather.com

I am starting to miss the 'sleepy' sun we had until recently!

Karyo

[Typhoon John]

Well it's still sleepy really. This months activity will be comparable to November 2008 however November had bigger more prolonged spots so it could be argued that activity was more vigorous then. Either way the minimum should soon be confirmed at around the turn of the year as counting all these specks will push the smoothed SSN up. Now the next question will be is the SSN going to increase but the size and contrast of the spots going to decline? At the moment it looks like yes but there is a long way to go; L&P still on track.