Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Typhoon John]

I think that's a much more sensible prediction but still probably at the top end of what is likely. It needs an increase of sunspots from now to be accurate and as we know the sun is currently flatlining. The longer there are no spots the lower the eventual sunspot maximum will be IMO.

And in reference to my previous post, I said that the December sunspot number was 1.5 when in reality it was only 0.8.

Edited January 6, 2009 by fozi999

[Waveform]

Looking like the appearance of sunspot 1010. (LOL, binary spot number 10) today.

Cloudy skies here (as usual), can not try for an observation or photo.

Nothing more than a personal comment here. I think because of the appearance of magnetic reversals spots sometime ago, when this cycle (24) ramps up in a few years the cycle will be quite active.

In fact I am saving my 'pocket change' now to purchase a H-alpha filter for the scope.

[Mondy]

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

And once again the sun is...........blank, no sunspots!

Spaceweather

[MR EXTREMES]

i dont know if anyone follows solar activity or where to post about this topic?

but what ive just seen is very strange indeed.

A new sunspot is emerging inside the circle region--and it is a strange one. The low latitude of the spot suggests it is a member of old Solar Cycle 23, yet the magnetic polarity of the spot is ambiguous, identifying it with neither old Solar Cycle 23 nor new Solar Cycle 24. Stay tuned for updates as the sunspot grows.

perhapes cycle 25 lol.

perhapes massive change within the sun possibly even lower activity or meaning 25 could be the start of some pretty cold winters.

[laserguy]

i dont know if anyone follows solar activity or where to post about this topic?

but what ive just seen is very strange indeed.

As weird as a bottle of chips. Perhaps the Mayan Gods are looking down on us all with a knowing wink,after all!

[mettalfabrik]

latest from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU019

UGEOA 30512 90119 1214/ 9930/

10192 21192 30192

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 19 Jan 2009 until 21 Jan 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2009 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2009 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 017

PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2009 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 012

COMMENT: Only one sunspot group is currently visible on the solar disc

(Catania number 94, no NOAA number yet). Due to its small size and weak

magnetic field, as well as to the low X-ray background flux (below the A

level), we do not expect it to produce a significant flaring activity in

the coming hours. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 13 nT this

morning. This may be an indication of the arrival of the interaction

region between the slow and faster solar wind streams. The faster stream

is produced by a low-latitude coronal hole (currently situated near the

west limb). Active geomagnetic conditions are possible.

According to solarcycle24 this is a cycle 23 spot nothing unusual in that

Edited January 19, 2009 by blackdown

[Typhoon John]

i dont know if anyone follows solar activity or where to post about this topic?

but what ive just seen is very strange indeed.

A new sunspot is emerging inside the circle region--and it is a strange one. The low latitude of the spot suggests it is a member of old Solar Cycle 23, yet the magnetic polarity of the spot is ambiguous, identifying it with neither old Solar Cycle 23 nor new Solar Cycle 24. Stay tuned for updates as the sunspot grows.

perhapes cycle 25 lol.

perhapes massive change within the sun possibly even lower activity or meaning 25 could be the start of some pretty cold winters.

It's probably solar cycle 23, the fact that they're still appearing indicates to me that this extended minimum is far from over.

[mettalfabrik]

from http://spaceweather.com/

Daily Sun: 19 Jan 09

A new sunspot is emerging inside the circle region--and it is a strange one. The low latitude of the spot suggests it is a member of old Solar Cycle 23, yet the magnetic polarity of the spot is ambiguous, identifying it with neither old Solar Cycle 23 nor new Solar Cycle 24. Stay tuned for updates as the sunspot grows. Credit: SOHO/MDI

more images: from Pavol Rapavy of Rimavska Sobota, Slovakia

[jethro]

Thought some may find this interesting; it's going to get cold....

http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/archives/95

[LadyPakal]

Another SC23 spot forming:

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[The PIT]

Still sleeping like a babe.

[Mondy]

Here are the latest sunspot averages..still make poor reading. SC24 is on hold!

Jan 07 22.7

Feb 07 18.5

Mar 07 11.2

Apr 07 12.2

May 07 15.8

Jun 07 18.7

Jul 07 15.4

Aug 07 10.2

Sep 07 5.4

Oct 07 3.0

Nov 07 6.9

Dec 07 8.1

Jan 08 8.5

Feb 08 8.4

Mar 08 8.4

Apr 08 8.9

May 08 5.0

Jun 08 3.7

Jul 08 2.0

Aug 08 1.1

Sep 08 2.5

Oct 08 4.5

Nov 08 4.4

Dec 08 3.7

[Mr Maunder]

Here are the latest sunspot averages..still make poor reading. SC24 is on hold!

Or makes good reading!

Yes cycle 24 really shows no sign of getting going at all in terms of sunspots and adjusted flux is also pretty static.

This is , of course, not unprecedented and it is a question of waiting to see if anything happens. The longer the wait, the possibility increases of a low sunspot maximum - but there are still many different views on this.

Because of the long hiatus I lean towards a low cycle (circa smoothed max 80), but time will tell.

MM

[Typhoon John]

I'm struggling to think of any outs for a high cycle now, I'd tend to agree with your prediction.

With all the attention given to AGW it does worry me that this event with potentially huge consequences is largely being ignored.

[LadyPakal]

Paper relating to SC24 (kif it has been posted already then apologies).

'Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond'

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads...astp-71-239.pdf

Abstract:

Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a nonlinear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in the dynamo’s magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax = 68 ± 17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate to low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60 - 100 years).

[shuggee]

This month's BBC Sky At Night was focussed on the 'Merry Dancers' aka the northern aurora. Very very interesting and a good discussion of the science of the upper most atmosphere. Was on BBC1 last night - not sure if it's repeated again sometime on BBC4?

Most interesting fact learnt: The aurora dissipates more energy than all of the planet's power stations put together http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks for all the updates

Any idea when the last time the sun was this quiet?

[Mondy]

Well, a B1 flare occured yesterday. First flare in ages.

It's hard to fathom why SC24 proper is taking so long.

[Mesosphere]

Well, a B1 flare occured yesterday. First flare in ages.

It's hard to fathom why SC24 proper is taking so long.

yep DXR , looped images from the STEREO - B spacecraft are here , http://spaceweather.com/images2009/11feb09...r4dr005f3eiqf71

Edited February 11, 2009 by Calum

[Mondy]

SSN predicition for Feb 2009 has been updated and it doesn't make for good reading:

[Typhoon John]

That prediction looks optimistic to me, my prediction would have the SSN about 30 lower.

It's going to be a very interesting year, especially if the sun keeps flatlining.

[LadyPakal]

Yet another SC23 spot forming:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/11/fina...-cycle-23-spot/

Edited February 12, 2009 by LadyPakal

[LadyPakal]

Sunspot 1012 Update

02/13/2009 by Kevin VE3EN at 02:30

Cycle 23 sunspot 1012 produced a B4 flare today. This region has been quiet otherwise.

From - http://www.solarcycle24.com/

[Mondy]

Here's the plots:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html