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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

:Issued: 2008 Mar 23 1234 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU083

UGEOA 30512 80323 1221/ 9930/

10232 21232 30232

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 23 Mar 2008 until 25

Mar 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 015

PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 024

PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 028

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be very low. Geomagnetic

activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels late on March

24th due to the recurrence of a coronal hole. Current readings of the

solar wind speed show a slow increase, with a current value of about

500

km/s. The All-Quiet Alert is therefore ended.

also a new sunspot growing rapidly

http://www.spaceweather.com/

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

just in from SIDC things getting active with B class flares

:Issued: 2008 Mar 24 1222 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU084

UGEOA 30512 80324 1208/ 9930/

10242 21242 30242

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 24 Mar 2008 until 26

Mar 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 026

PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 017

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly quiet during the next

48 hours. There is a small chance of C-class flare activity from the

new

active region, NOAA AR 0987. The Xray flux measured by the GOES

spacecraft increased by an order of magnitude during the last 24 hours

and B-class flares were observed. Geomagnetic activity is expected to

reach active levels during the next 48 hours, either late on March 24th

or during the next day on March 25th, due to a recurrent coronal hole.

also check out this

http://www.spaceweather.com/

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

2 equitorial, cycle 23 polarity, spots have blossomed overnight. No output from either of them yet but they both have potential for outbursts.

Will these 2 be the final swansong from cycle 23 I wonder?

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

latest warnings and reports, not to sure of the magnetic properties of 989 yet

:Issued: 2008 Mar 25 2021 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

An M1.7 class flare has been observed, with a peak time at

18:56UT.</br>

No localization is currently available but owing to its recent burst

activity as observed with the EIT instrument, a possible source is NOAA

AR 0988.

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt

:Issued: 2008 Mar 25 2100 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction

Center

#

# Geophysical Alert Message

#

Solar-terrestrial indices for 25 March follow.

Solar flux 89 and estimated mid-latitude A-Index 5.

The mid-latitude K-index at 2100 UTC on 25 March was 2 (15 nT).

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.

Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2008 Mar 25 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z

to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. New Region 989 (S10E77)

was numbered today and produced a M1/1f at 25/1856Z with an

associated 290 sfu Tenflare at 25/1851Z and a Type II radio sweep,

with a speed of 1278 km/s. LASCO imagery also observed a CME off

the East limb associated with this event which was first observed in

C2 at 25/1941Z. This region is too close to the limb to determine

its magnetic configuration. Region 987 (S08E23) and 988 (S09E47)

both remain beta groups and have grown in white light area coverage

and sunspot count.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. Region 989 is capable of producing an isolated M-class

event.

Edited by blackdown
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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

all happening now! long time since see these kind of warnings

Wed, 26 Mar 2008 16:09:12 GMT

From: "Solar Influences Data analysis Center" <sidc@oma.be> Add to Address Book

Subject: PRESTO ALERT

To:

:Issued: 2008 Mar 26 1607 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Magnetic storm in progress. The Earth has entered a fast solar wind

stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Active conditions are right now

observed at Dourbes station with K=4 indices for the last 6 hours (09

to

15 UT). Similarly, active conditions have been observed at planetary

levels with even minor storm conditions (Kp=5) between 12 and 15 UT.

Solar wind speed measurements made by the ACE spacecraft read about 550

km/s, with Bz fluctuations up to -5 -10 nT during the last couples of

hours.

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #

# Royal Observatory of Belgium #

# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #

# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #

# #

# For more information

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05

Serial Number: 628

Issue Time: 2008 Mar 26 1647 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Valid From: 2008 Mar 26 1650 UTC

Valid To: 2008 Mar 26 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

:Issued: 2008 Mar 28 1234 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU088

UGEOA 30512 80328 1224/ 9930/

10282 20282 30282

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 28 Mar 2008 until 30

Mar 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 017

PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly quiet during the next

48 hours with a small chance of C-class flares from one of the 3 active

regions visible on the solar disk. Geomagnetic activity is expected to

be mostly quiet with still a risk of isolated unsettled conditions for

the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed has an increasing trend with a

current value measured by the ACE spacecraft of about 650 km/s.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

latest warning due coronal hole as no sunspots

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1519

Issue Time: 2008 Apr 06 1457 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1518

Valid From: 2008 Apr 04 1700 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Apr 08 1600 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

GEOALERT BRU106

UGEOA 30512 80415 1217/ 9930/

10152 20152 30152

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 15 Apr 2008 until 17

Apr 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Apr 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 002

PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Apr 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 003

PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Apr 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 001

COMMENT: A solar cycle 24 sunspot appeared on April 13, 2008. It has

shown already some small activity measured by nemo, a software for

automatic detection of eruptions. Several eruptive dimmings were

detected. No flares were measured by GOES. No geomagnetic disturbances

are expected in the next 48 hours. The all-quiet-alert stays valid.

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

:Issued: 2008 Apr 23 1233 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be active with some risks of

isolated minor storms conditions. The Earth has now entered the fast

solar wind stream emanating from a recurrent coronal hole. The Bz

component of the interplanetary magnetic field displayed strong

variations up to -10nT earlier on April 23rd. Current readings of the

solar wind speed are about 600 km/s. Minor storm conditions are already

observed at planetary levels (Kp=5).

from this afternoon

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06

Serial Number: 159

Issue Time: 2008 Apr 23 0817 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected

Valid From: 2008 Apr 23 0815 UTC

Valid To: 2008 Apr 23 1600 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

Looking very Interesting at the moment with this latest plot taken from the NOAA 15 Satellite showing a very extensive Auroral Oval. The Planetery K - Index is Currently at 4 which is unsettled but the 24 hour max is 5 which is a storm , i'm gonna keep an eye on this! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif

post-7984-1208974780_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

things have started to calm down now

today's space weather forecast is shown below :-

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods for 25 April. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for 26-27 April.

Latest Auroral Oval Image :-

post-7984-1209200076_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

reports seem to be coming in , saying that a B3 class solar flare has been unleashed by the sun in the last few hours

GOES (Geostaionary Operational Enviromental Satellite) data seems to confirm this :-

post-7984-1209229812_thumb.png

(i've drawn a line on the image showing the point when the flare was picked up by the satellite)

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

nearly a b4 class according to SIDC

:Issued: 2008 Apr 26 2036 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

A halo/partial halo CME was observed with the LASCO coronagraphs

onboard SOHO on April 26th at 15:08UT (LASCO C2). It was associated

with

a nearly B4 class flare occuring in a spotless active region located

approximately 10E 10N, at the time of the eruption (peak at 14:08 UT).

An EIT wave was also observed linked to this event. The CME propagated

mostly eastward with an estimated velocity of 466 km/s (CACtus

detection).

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Not bad for a 'blank sun' eh?

I thought that sunspots marked out the areas of major instability capable of unleashing such phenomena.

Maybe one of you guys can throw a little light on the matter?

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

Not bad for a 'blank sun' eh?

I thought that sunspots marked out the areas of major instability capable of unleashing such phenomena.

Maybe one of you guys can throw a little light on the matter?

try this Link

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

latest from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU121

UGEOA 30512 80430 1110/ 9930/

10302 21302 30302

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 30 Apr 2008 until 02

May 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Apr 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 003

PREDICTIONS FOR 01 May 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 021

PREDICTIONS FOR 02 May 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 019

COMMENT: The (partial) halo CME has not yet arrived. We expect active

conditions. The rest of the coronal hole is arriving at geoeffective

locations on the solar disk. This might initiate also active

conditions.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

after a quiet time lately a reoccurring coronal hole

GEOALERT BRU139

UGEOA 30512 80518 1204/ 9930/

10182 21182 30182

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 May 2008 until 20

May 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2008 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 009

PREDICTIONS FOR 19 May 2008 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 024

PREDICTIONS FOR 20 May 2008 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 016

COMMENT: Flaring conditions are quiet. We expect active conditions

caused by an equatorial hole.

Edited by blackdown
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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

active conditions likely soon

latest from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU160

UGEOA 30512 80608 1034/ 9930/

10082 20082 30082

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Jun 2008 until 10

Jun 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jun 2008 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jun 2008 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jun 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Space weather activity is gradually catching up. The active

region emerging on the East limb might bring an end in the coming days

to the long flare-less period we have enjoyed. The solar wind speed is

unexpectedly high, potentially leading to isolated episodes of active

geomagnetic conditions.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

nothing much has happened since last post,and nothing much in the way of cycle 24 activity! hmmm?

latest from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU182

UGEOA 30512 80630 0822/ 9930/

10302 20302 30302

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 30 Jun 2008 until 02

Jul 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jun 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 002

PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 003

PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 003

COMMENT: The sun is quiet and expected to remain so. Solar and

geomagnetic activities are both expected to be very quiet during the

next 48 hours. The All-Quiet Alert is maintained.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green

I think it's about 20 days now since any sunspots and almost 70 days since any SC24 sunspots! It's all very quiet at the moment.

Although, according to David Hathaway of NASA there is nothing unusual at all.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11...cycleupdate.htm

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

yep very quiet fozi although ! higher latitudes could be in for a treat tonight ,clear skies notwithstanding!!!

GEOALERT BRU194

UGEOA 30512 80712 1136/ 9930/

10122 22122 30122

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Jul 2008 until 14

Jul 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 027

PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 033

PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 008

COMMENT: Solar activity shows no change and remains very low. On the

contrary, at Earth there are minor storm conditions at present. The

high

speed stream from the coronal hole, now finishing its central meridian

pass, has become geoeffective. The solar wind speed of about 650 km/s

was accompanied by a negative Bz, reaching -10nT and producing a

Kp-index of 5. The geomagnetic activity will remain from unsettled to

active today and tomorrow, with possible geomagnetic storms especially

early on July 13th. Auroras are expected at high latitudes.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1543

Issue Time: 2008 Jul 12 1422 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1542

Valid From: 2008 Jul 11 2345 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Jul 12 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

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