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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

SOLAR CYCLE 24: Solar physicists have been waiting for the appearance of a reversed-polarity sunspot to signal the start of the next solar cycle. The wait is over. A magnetically reversed, high-latitude sunspot emerged today If you have a solar telescope, take a look at this important new active region. It marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 24 and the sun's slow ascent back to Solar Maximum

http://www.spaceweather.com/

NEWS FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Fri Jan 4 2008, 1300 UT

Several observatories have reported the presence of a high latitude sunspot group (Catania: http://web.ct.astro.it/sun/draw.jpg, Kanzelhohe: http://cesar.kso.ac.at/sunspot_drawings/20...80104_0832.jpg). MDI images show a bipolar structure. This bipole is the first of the new solar cycle which actually develops into a visible sunspot group. Solar cycle 24 has arrived!

http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3

Posted Image

Put that in yer pipe and smoke it. I knew it would be a matter of days before some kind of statement like the above came to fruition :doh:

Edited by Mondy
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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3

Posted Image

Put that in yer pipe and smoke it. I knew it would be a matter of days before some kind of statement like the above came to fruition :)

Spaceweather.com has also flagged it as being a new-cycle group. Finally!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well yip , ya, hoo .At last. now we can sit back and watch it build and see whether it is to prove a fun one.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

It's just North of the equator, unlike the other more diffuse areas, thus polarity is opposite - but still cycle 23, and not quite a spot. I recently learned to think before I put both feet in my mouf :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

It's just North of the equator, unlike the other more diffuse areas, thus polarity is opposite - but still cycle 23, and not quite a spot. I recently learned to think before I put both feet in my mouf http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Interesting piece on Space weather about this new spot...
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

yes P.P. and they seem to think we are already into cycle 24 (Mr Knight)

As for it's equatorial position.......they did say this would be a big 'un (the cycle ,not the teensy weensy spot) so maybe it'll be quite unique in its surface patterns

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

yes P.P. and they seem to think we are already into cycle 24 (Mr Knight

Read up more, GW.

Cycle 24 has started. The first visible c24 sunspot made sure of that. As quoted by very many space outlets..

Edited by Mondy
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Read up more, GW.

Cycle 24 has started. The first visible c24 sunspot made sure of that. As quoted by very many space outlets..

I have no doubt that we are into 24 Monders but Mr Knight seems to be holding the line that the first reverse polarity spot is not enough (I think there's a Nasa paper saying the same.....we have to be a few more spots into it for them to call it cycle 24 and not the end of 23 still????).

Sorry to confuse you an' all that :)

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

If there are any gaps in the cloud the Aurora is visible from the far North of Scotland now according to this http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapN.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

I have no doubt that we are into 24 Monders but Mr Knight seems to be holding the line that the first reverse polarity spot is not enough (I think there's a Nasa paper saying the same.....we have to be a few more spots into it for them to call it cycle 24 and not the end of 23 still????).

Sorry to confuse you an' all that http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif

Who am I to upset the happy sunspot cycle 24 rampers - its on its way, and we will know when it's finally here, but the official minimum (month) has not been declared yet. So cycle 23 has a little more mileage in it yet. Of course this cycle may be so unusual as to rewrite the books and the definition of minimum may be changed to fit all eventualities - much as Pluto lost its status as a planet last year.

there are 9 EDIT 8 planets in the solar system :(

Edited by Chris Knight
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Excuse our confusion Chris but all the agencies seem to be calling it 24 now. Apparently last week was the end/beginning.

Solar Cycle 24 Begins

1.10.2008

Jan. 10, 2008: Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Posted Image

Above: Images of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [Larger image] [Movie]

Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

The answer is now.

The above is NASA's declaration from last week.

Ho Hum.

The present current coronal hole seems a little large, is this an average sized tear or is it a little on the large side?

We also have the 'Ulysses' spacecraft about to fly over the sun's north pole so maybe that'll be able to confirm the incept of 24?

EDIT:

Just found this:

Strange but True: While Solar Cycle 24 has begun, Solar Cycle 23 has not ended. Both cycles will coexist for a period of time, perhaps a year or more, as one dies down and the other comes to life. In the months ahead we may see old-cycle sunspots and new-cycle sunspots on the sun at the same time.

NASA is gearing up to study the active sun during Cycle 24 with the launch of a new spacecraft, the Solar Dynamics Observatory. "SDO is a very special observatory," says project scientist Dean Pesnell at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. "Using a technique called helioseismic imaging, the spacecraft will be able to look inside the sun where solar activity begins. SDO will join SOHO, STEREO, Hinode and other missions already in orbit to improve our understanding of solar storms and lay the groundwork for better space weather forecasts."

NOAA: Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

NOAA: Sunspot is Harbinger of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk for Electrical Systems

NASA's Future: The Vision for Space Exploration

Posted Image So everybody is right! Ah ,that's better......I do loathe conflict.

EDIT,EDIT, With Mondy wising us up to a reversed polarity, high latitude spot last year it makes me wonder whether the first rumblings of the cycle were in fact last year (at least 6 months before this one was called). Why would this prove important? Well, the earlier the start the fiercer the cycle and seeing as opinion seems split over a busy cycle and a slack cycle a start last year would indicate a very busy cycle!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Yup! As the start of 24 was delayed NASA seemed to become divided over whether we are to expect a biggie or not but, seeing as the start is a little earlier than their revised timetable (march) then it looks all the more favourable for a strong event. In 97 large areas of Canada had power outages because of the induced current flow across the grid during one mighty storm and satellites orbits become decayed due to the swelling out (and increased resistance) of our atmosphere during major events. The sat.s can also burn out due to induced current flow too.

Maybe we picked the wrong cycle to become an electrical, satellite dependant society?????

The again wouldn't it be a larf if all the ATM's /credit card systems went down for 3 or 4 weeks.........fun buying yer groceries or getting paid then eh????

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

This doesn't really add up to the predicted large cycle 24 does it? A peak of 90 in August 2012.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict_low.txt

You've got to go back to 1928 to find a peak figure lower than that.

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SU..._NUMBERS/YEARLY

Am I have a doh moment here?

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

This doesn't really add up to the predicted large cycle 24 does it? A peak of 90 in August 2012.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict_low.txt

You've got to go back to 1928 to find a peak figure lower than that.

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SU..._NUMBERS/YEARLY

Am I have a doh moment here?

Then again, NOAA have hedged their bets by doing a high prediction too with up to 154.9 in September and October 2011, released at the same time:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict_high.txt

Edited by Chris Knight
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Lol. Thanks for that Chris, hadn't seen it; so to sum up then, they haven't got a clue. Hands up all those who think they put numbers on scraps of paper then take turns to pull them out of the hat....

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

Lol. Thanks for that Chris, hadn't seen it; so to sum up then, they haven't got a clue. Hands up all those who think they put numbers on scraps of paper then take turns to pull them out of the hat....

Something I've been asking myself for a while! Some sources say a really massive maximum,others say the sun will barely wake from its current deep sleep. I tend to favour the latter since this cycle is almost a full twelve months late and appears to be in need of a heavy dose of 'choke' to get going! As of today the sunspot number is nil,nada,zilch. A late,stuttering start indicates an ultimately supressed maximum,apparently. Here comes the ice age :bomb: ! As always,we have to wait and see...

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

Something I've been asking myself for a while! Some sources say a really massive maximum,others say the sun will barely wake from its current deep sleep. I tend to favour the latter since this cycle is almost a full twelve months late and appears to be in need of a heavy dose of 'choke' to get going! As of today the sunspot number is nil,nada,zilch. A late,stuttering start indicates an ultimately supressed maximum,apparently. Here comes the ice age :bomb: ! As always,we have to wait and see...

Yes. we must wait and see. First we need to wait and see when the minimum has actually been passed. The first swallow sunspot of cycle 24 has been seen, a few more need to come along yet - they may be few and far between this year, who knows?

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

i wonder if this guys theories will pan out ie the jovian effect and sunspot activity in cycle 24

http://personal.eunet.fi/pp/tilmari/tilmari6.htm#qbasic

Also of interest for several different reasons, Jan Janssens site, SOLAEMON:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Nice CME just over the Sun's NE limb: see movie http://www.spaceweather.com/images2008/24f...t83eoupbnee2jh1

More details on Spaceweather main page (look back to 23rd. Feb 08 when it gets archived) http://www.spaceweather.com/

Are we at last getting some real activity?

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

It seems there's a sunspot today albeit a small one.

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