Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[pottyprof]

Must be some truth in the saying "speak of the devil".. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Could be an interesting few days reading if it is the start..

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it is all the NWeather 'interest' as to whether 'cycle 24' will be as originally predicted or a flop that's caused him to hop into action!

Seeing as Cycle 23 went out on one of the largest CME's (a while back I know but he should have been quietening down then surely?) then I'm sticking with NASA's predictions for the busiest cycle since observations began!! (those Mayans knew their Sun stuff!!)

[Mondy]

Solar Flux currently stands at 93.4. Highest it's been for a whole year.

I think it is all the NWeather 'interest' as to whether 'cycle 24' will be as originally predicted or a flop that's caused him to hop into action!

Seeing as Cycle 23 went out on one of the largest CME's (a while back I know but he should have been quietening down then surely?) then I'm sticking with NASA's predictions for the busiest cycle since observations began!! (those Mayans knew their Sun stuff!!)

Nasa have revised there thinking on SC24 (as of Dec 7, 2007)

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

[mettalfabrik]

latest from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU346

UGEOA 30512 71212 1253/ 9930/

10122 21122 30122

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Dec 2007 until 14 Dec 2007

PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Dec 2007 10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2007 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2007 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 005

COMMENT: There is still a slight chance of a C flare from active region

NOAA0978 but this region is now showing clear signs of decline. Note

that a small sunspot group might be appearing today at the NE limb.

Given its high latitude (27° N), there is a fair chance that it belongs

to the new solar activity cycle. If a reversed magnetic polarity is

confirmed by magnetograms of the new few days, it would be the first

observed spot of the next solar cycle. The solar wind speed is still

high (600km/s). Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are thus

predicted for the next 24 to 48 hours, when the fast solar wind stream

will finally decay.

[Chris Knight]

Arrow to indicate.

If it does develop to be a sunspot, and it isn't dark enough yet, the magnetometry shows it isn't backwards:

still, we keep on hoping...

[Mondy]

Hi Chris..

I see you're also on SC24 discussion forum.

I just quoted this - (you can deduct i'm MM0NDX)

Note

that a small sunspot group might be appearing today at the NE limb.

Given its high latitude (27° N), there is a fair chance that it belongs

to the new solar activity cycle. If a reversed magnetic polarity is

confirmed by magnetograms of the new few days, it would be the first

observed spot of the next solar cycle.

...hopefully Prof Svalgaard will come on there and share his insights more. The fact it's neither backward nor dark enough might not make much difference yet. The first backward spot was spotted approx 14 months ago (on the equator). This region, be it a decaying spot or not, is high enough to suggest it's a C24 marker.

Edit: On closer look at the latest Stereo behind, compare the glow from 978 to the new NE spot. It has to be a spot.

Edited December 12, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Two C class flares today from 978, which has developed a gamma-beat magnetic field.

[Gray-Wolf]

Are we any closer to confirming the start of cycle 24 though?

[frogesque]

Are we any closer to confirming the start of cycle 24 though?

978 is a beauty but as it's eqatorial I'd say it's ~23 spot. However, what's that bright spot doing on the Eastern side in the top half of the frame? Will this develop into a full blown ~24 spot - it looks as if it corresponds with the Stereo behind image.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2007/13d...li92eqervtg0567

[Chris Knight]

Hi Chris..

I see you're also on SC24 discussion forum.

I just quoted this - (you can deduct i'm MM0NDX)

...hopefully Prof Svalgaard will come on there and share his insights more. The fact it's neither backward nor dark enough might not make much difference yet. The first backward spot was spotted approx 14 months ago (on the equator). This region, be it a decaying spot or not, is high enough to suggest it's a C24 marker.

Edit: On closer look at the latest Stereo behind, compare the glow from 978 to the new NE spot. It has to be a spot.

Hi Mondy (I'd have never guessed )

look at this, just below that spot

The magnetometry is backwards and the inclination of the polarity is opposite.

I'm still not holding my breath tho!

[Mondy]

Is a New Solar Cycle Beginning?

What'd i tell ya?

[Chris Knight]

Is a New Solar Cycle Beginning?

What'd i tell ya?

egg on NASA faces - they pointed to the wrong spot

[Gray-Wolf]

Who told who Monds?

Me an' my Nasa pals got all excited on the 11th didn't we (and some joker was then tellin' folk that there was a premature announcement over on environment........)

Just a larf me old mucka!

But you should have a little more trust my sources.......and it will be a big cycle by the way. just not the generation to have so many high latitude power grids or to be so reliant on sat. coms.........and why d'ya think I'm so blue over things all of the time ??? S'not wot yer know but who.......

If only you knew, if only you knew........to quote the good ' Steven ' (king of Ireland in 'Braveheart') " The good lord tells me he can get me through this one......but you're fugged"

[Mondy]

Let's just say i told you so on Dec 10 that Cycle 24 was beginning!

If Nasa say 4 days later that indeed a proper cycle 24 spot was evident, then i ain't gonna quarrel with them; even if they marked the wrong spot

Edited December 15, 2007 by Mondy

[Chris Knight]

Let's just say i told you so on Dec 10 that Cycle 24 was beginning!

If Nasa say 4 days later that indeed a proper cycle 24 spot was evident, then i ain't gonna quarrel with them; even if they marked the wrong spot

Egg on my face, I'm afraid, I hit the wrong spot http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[Mondy]

Heads up for Northern Lights!

Well, maybe not, but keep an eye on the K-index. Up to 4 now, solar wind speed is just below 600km/s, with the Bz component currently just nudging northwards.

The coronal hole causing this is a big one, real potent in size - if the Bz sharply points south and the wind increases,look for the K-index to reach minimum 6 - then look out your windows; especially since it's so clear.

[Gray-Wolf]

Heads up for Northern Lights!

then look out your windows; especially since it's so clear.

I'll be out for my 'pipes' but it's a little 'brass monkies 'out there and I wouldn't like to loose my bearings!!!

Cheers for the heads up Mondy, I'd read that there could be increased activity from the 17th and thought " the last thing I should do is forget to check it out" and of course the last thing I did.............

[Mondy]

LINK

[Gray-Wolf]

An active sunspot that's already cracked off 2 'C' class flares is about to put in an appearance over the eastern limb of the sun. First chance for a flare in the new year/cycle?

[mettalfabrik]

An active sunspot that's already cracked off 2 'C' class flares is about to put in an appearance over the eastern limb of the sun. First chance for a flare in the new year/cycle?

seems to be the return of 978 and prob not new cycle, i stand to be corrected tho

:Issued: 2007 Dec 31 0629 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Former active region NOAA10978 is about to return at the East limb and

appears to be still very active. It just produced a long-duration C8.3

flare at 00:37UT Dec.31, soon after a first C1 flare yesterday Dec.30.

EIT imagery indicates that the C8 flare was partially masked behind the

limb and was thus probably an M-class flare, and that it triggered a

large East-limb CME. A strong rise of solar activity is thus expected,

with multiple C-flares and probable M flares.

check out the movie from stereo here its a doozy

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited December 31, 2007 by blackdown

[mettalfabrik]

nice link here

http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/old/21dec2007/

[stormchaser1]

Mondy

found this

(you prob already know about this anyway }

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solars...solar_live.html

While sidewalks crackle in the summer heat, NASA scientists are keeping a close eye on the sun. It is almost spotless, a sign that the Sun may have reached solar minimum. Scientists are now watching for the first spot of the new solar cycle to appear.

The 11 year long solar cycle is marked by two extremes, solar minimum and solar maximum. Solar minimum is the period of least solar activity in the solar cycle of the sun. During this time sunspot and solar flare activity diminishes, and often does not occur for days at a time.

When spots begin to appear on the sun once again, scientists know that the sun is heading into a new season of extreme solar activity. At the cycle's peak, solar maximum, the sun is continually peppered with spots, solar flares erupt, and the sun hurls billion-ton clouds of electrified gas into space.

Solar maximum is often compared to the hurricane season here on Earth. Violent solar events, like flares and coronal mass ejections, are the hurricanes of space weather. These solar storms are capable of wreaking havoc with satellites, power grids, and radio communication, including the Global Positioning System.

NOAA's Space Environment Center, Boulder CO, forecasts that the next solar cycle should begin in March 2008 and should peak in late 2011 or mid 2012.

Nigel

[Mondy]

Hey Nige. Yep, i did know about that report

This is the return of old 978. Still looks intact. It will be renumbered, of course.

Prof Svalsgard over on SCycle 24 mentions that the onslaught of cycle 24 is heralded by large flaring (the blow out Cycle 23 if you like)

One was a c-flare, the other was actually an M1 flare.

You can see the spot featuring on the latest Stereo behind:

A few days from now it will come into view, but the Behind image shows a beast

Edit: You can see a rather cool movie of the ealier M1 flare this morning: LINK

Edited December 31, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Solar Max predicted for August 2012: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict_low.txt

Predicted solar flux of 163 (high) - it's currently at 80, has been as low as 64 recently

Sunspot numbers predicted at 105 (highest value)..it's currently nil.

Make of that what you will, but i'm happy! Radio propagation will be a joy!

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks to be another doozy on the far side hauling itself around into view. Are we still in doubt that 23 is finished and 24 is upon us???

It seems that a busy cycle24 is also being confirmed as the most likely outcome. Peak in Aug 2012 eh Monders? Very close to the Mayan long count 'end time' eh? I'm sure the 2 months up to max will be some of the busiest........Ho Hum.