Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[shuggee]

latest news

if only we had clear skies tonight good chance 35% of aurora tonight due to the persistant coronal hole not a coronal mass ejection as reported else where

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_hole

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

<snip>

There's no chance at all Blackdown. You need to look at the indicators in the first couple of posts here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=14968

As can be seen with the first chart - 'no activity detected' is the headline.

The best way to consider whether or not even the most northerly areas of the UK are susceptable to aurora is to look at this chart:

We need red bars at at least KP7 for even Scotland to be in with a shout. KP3 - even Iceland won't see much.

[Chris Knight]

There's no chance at all Blackdown. You need to look at the indicators in the first couple of posts here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=14968

As can be seen with the first chart - 'no activity detected' is the headline.

The best way to consider whether or not even the most northerly areas of the UK are susceptable to aurora is to look at this chart:

We need red bars at at least KP7 for even Scotland to be in with a shout. KP3 - even Iceland won't see much.

Sadly true, to put this on the map:

but we can always hope:

for a southwards extension by midnight

even though it will be cloudy http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[shuggee]

Up to KP6 now - so perhaps Blackdown has a very accurate Crystal Ball! Well done pal

On a clear night KP6 might have tempted me out away from the city into East Lothian - so the northern sky is out across the sea - best conditions for the least possible light pollution...

[Chris Knight]

Up to KP6 now - so perhaps Blackdown has a very accurate Crystal Ball! Well done pal

On a clear night KP6 might have tempted me out away from the city into East Lothian - so the northern sky is out across the sea - best conditions for the least possible light pollution...

Even with full moon at perigee (i.e. 14% larger than usual), a bright aurora is spectacular, if you are lucky enough.

[mettalfabrik]

sorry guys i did,nt mean for me down here for me, although they do give a kp-6 which i thought might give some action further north

check out this pic from shetland on the 18th oct meteor and all

http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2...and-Dawson1.jpg

just for comparison i bit lower than i first said

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04

Serial Number: 1307

Issue Time: 2007 Oct 18 1122 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4

Threshold Reached: 2007 Oct 18 1122 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Station: Boulder

Active Warning: Yes

and todays

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05

Serial Number: 615

Issue Time: 2007 Oct 25 1609 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Valid From: 2007 Oct 25 1615 UTC

Valid To: 2007 Oct 25 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Edited October 25, 2007 by blackdown

[Chris Knight]

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2.gif

Takes a while to load, but when it does, it repeats itself at a reasonable speed.

The CME associated with the persistent flare within the area of transequatorial Coronal hole CH295 (image posted here on 17/10/2007) is clearly visible on the animation from about 0100 utc - 0500 on 22/10/07, with fast streaming of the solar wind until 24/10/07 especially visible from the eastern side of the disc.

Wiki article on coronal holes pretty patchy BTW, but fairly good on CMEs

CK

[mettalfabrik]

nice one chris i see what you mean

here is the latest summmary from http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Solar Wind / Aurora Watch

10/26/2007 by VE3EN at 14:00

The solar wind remains above 650 km/s. During the initial onset of the solar wind, it triggered a G2 Geomagnetic Storm. Yesterday during that storm period, Aurora contacts were made in Europe. By the time evening arrived in NA, the activity slowed.

As long as the solar wind is elevated, sporadic minor geomagnetic storms is possible.

The sun has now been blank of any sunspots for 19 days and the solar flux currently stands at 67.

Up to KP6 now - so perhaps Blackdown has a very accurate Crystal Ball! Well done pal

On a clear night KP6 might have tempted me out away from the city into East Lothian - so the northern sky is out across the sea - best conditions for the least possible light pollution...

thanks shuggee ,after looking at all the latest info i thought there maybe

latest forecast

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

24 October - 19 November 2007

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is

expected to reach high levels during 24 October - 08 November and 16

- 19 November.

Activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels from 24

October through midday on 27 October due to a recurrent coronal hole

high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to

unsettled levels from midday on the 27th through the 29th. Activity

is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31

October as another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream affects

the field. Quiet conditions are expected during 01 - 13 November.

Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during

14 - 15 November. A further increase to unsettled to active levels

is forecast for 16 November due to a recurrent coronal hole

high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for

the rest of the period.

Edited October 26, 2007 by blackdown

[shuggee]

Keep it up BD - I've been anxiously following these readings for two or three years now and believe me, starting during the solar minimum has been no fun at all - we need some action!!

[mettalfabrik]

latest report looks pretty quiet for the next day or 2 just as well really as we have the greyest of grey days down here

can not even get to check out comet holmes

Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt

:Issued: 2007 Oct 27 1500 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center

#

# Geophysical Alert Message

#

Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 October follow.

Solar flux 68 and mid-latitude A-index 14.

The mid-latitude K-index at 1500 UTC on 27 October was 3 (26 nT).

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

some nice prominences from yesterday

GEOALERT BRU300

UGEOA 30512 71027 1109/ 9930/

10272 21272 30272

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 27 Oct 2007 until 29

Oct 2007

PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 019

PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 014

PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 007

COMMENT: We have a complete flaring silence. Geomagnetic conditions

might become active due to a polar coronal hole with parts reaching

lower latitudes.

Edited October 27, 2007 by blackdown

[mettalfabrik]

latest

:Issued: 2007 Oct 28 1301 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU301

UGEOA 30512 71028 1255/ 9930/

10282 21282 30282

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 28 Oct 2007 until 30

Oct 2007

PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 015

PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 020

PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 008

COMMENT: Flaring activity is absent. Active geomagnetic conditions are

possible from late today or tomorrow. A southern coronal hole can

possibly influence the earth magnetic field.

[mettalfabrik]

latest news 22 days with no sunspots any body got any idea of past record for blank sun days

GEOALERT BRU302

UGEOA 30512 71029 1407/ 9930/

10292 20292 30292

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 29 Oct 2007 until 31

Oct 2007

PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 004

PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 001

PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 001

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly quiet during

the forecast period as the influence of the fast stream from the

recurrent coronal hole continues to wane. The remnant of a smaller,

more

southerly hole transitted the central meridian on Oct 25th but any fast

stream from this hole would be unlikely to result in conditions beyond

unsettled. Solar activity from the spotless sun is expected to remain

minimal. An All Quiet Alert is in effect

[mettalfabrik]

just got this may be some action way up north

:Issued: 2007 Oct 29 2342 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgiu #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

The arrival of the fast stream from a recurrent coronal hole has led to

the onset of Minor Storm conditions (Kp=5, also K=5 recorded at

Dourbes). Further intervals are possible as the solar wind speed

appears

likely to increase.

[mettalfabrik]

dead quiet and 26 days without sunspots

:Issued: 2007 Nov 02 1300 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU306

UGEOA 30512 71102 1244/ 9930/

10022 20022 30022

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 02 Nov 2007 until 04

Nov 2007

PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 005

PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 002

PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 001

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet. The IMF

is currently weak, with the Bz component oscillating around zero. The

solar wind speed is dropping towards 300km/s and is expected to

continue

to a lower level still. Solar activity is expected to remain minimal

from the spotless and plage-less sun. The All Quiet Alert remains in

place.

[shuggee]

Looking at the indicators and measurements in the first few posts in the pinned 'Resources Thread' above, I think I can honestly say I have never seen so little activity. When will this end?!

[pottyprof]

Bit flat Shuggs innit? It wasn't this quiet over the minimum.. Long time at 0 spots now.

[Mondy]

It lasted 29 days without a sunspot occuring on the sun, then a tiny spot arrived (973) only for it to disappear again!

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html (link taken from SC24)

Also, the lowest ever solar flux was 64.4. Last month that figure was equalled, so we really are now in the bowels of solar minimum.

[pottyprof]

Cheers for that Monders..

Do we reckon the flux could go lower?

[Mondy]

I honestly have no idea.

It's been stuck around 66-69 for months with occassional blips below.

Bring back the days of solar flux above 125

[mettalfabrik]

this is the only report of 973 i had today

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2007 Nov 06 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed

during the past 24 hours. A new sunspot region emerged on the disk

today and was assigned Region 973 (S11W54). The region is a simple

A-type sunspot group. This is the first spot to be reported since

October 7, 2007.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet for first day (07 November), quiet to unsettled

for the second day (08 November), and quiet again for the third day

(09 November).

[mettalfabrik]

forecast

Activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during 07 - 13

November. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled

levels during 14 November. A further increase to unsettled to active

levels is forecast for 15 - 16 November due to a recurrent coronal

hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected

during 17 - 20 November. Activity is expected to increase to

unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm levels during 21 -

22 November due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during

23 - 24 November as the high-speed stream subsides. Activity is

expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 25 - 26

November as another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes

geoeffective. From 27 November - 03 December, mostly quiet

conditions are expected.

[Mondy]

Very interesting read with up to date info regarding the current cycle, sunspots etc.

Click on the links given (the pdf file gives all current info).

You'll see that the bottom of the cycle is suggesting May this year, when it was infact thought to be March.

The two scenarios are Cycle 24 peaking at sunspot number 140 in October 2011, or peaking at 90 on August 2012

The panel does not expect to reach a consensus for a Cycle 24 prediction until solar minimum has passed. Until then, an average of the two scenarios calls for a peak in January 2012 with a smoothed sunspot number of 113, several points lower than the peak of the current cycle.

If interested, it really is worth taking the time to sift through the file and read from scratch. Then you'lll know exactly where we are in the cycle.

[Guest Viking141]

And does all this lack of activity not tie in nicely with the predicition that we are about to go into the Gleissberg minima?

I'd be interested in BFTP's thoughts on this.

Edited November 10, 2007 by Viking141

[pottyprof]

Seems to be one of the possibilities Viking.

interesting to see the complete opposites are being forecast still. One for a very active cycle and one for a very quiet cycle. Won't be too long before we find out...

[Mondy]

And does all this lack of activity not tie in nicely with the predicition that we are about to go into the Gleissberg minima?

I'd be interested in BFTP's thoughts on this.

Having just googled Gleissberg, it sure does look like tying in nicely with the cycle predictions. But, seeing as how that's for the climate threads, of which i ain't getting involved in --(oh,no,no, i ain't!), then best leave it at that!

[Mondy]

More findings unearth the fact that with the Solar Flux now rising to 70, we have just completed a period of 67 straight days below that mark. This is now the lowest level we have seen at Solar Minimum since such records have been kept. Plus, it's the leanest period of sunspots in recent history.