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Autumn and Winter discussion...


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I wonder if BFTP can find out what year that was. From looking at the figures standing in the foreground I'd say around 1900-1910 or perhaps earlier

It is 1911 so not bad BB

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
HI Whitefox. Anthropomorphic Global Warming. ie we're chucking out CO2 and that is the cause of the warming. Very distinct from GW, wich is a fact. AGW may be a fact, but it not accepted to a whole range of degrees, by a whole range of people - which leads to some inetersting debates.

Paul

Almost- it's anthropogenic global warming.

Anthropogenic basically means caused by human activity.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Location: West Sussex
I know people enjoy Steve's analysis, BB, and there is a terrific amount of knowledge and potential for learning in there, but the reason many people enjoy the analysis is because the analysis contains pointers to cold. The cold rampers, generally, aren't open to listening to a point of view which indictates a probability of warmth, even to the point of getting upset about it being expressed.

".....as we approach another winter season with hopefully lots of snow and that easterly we all long for." is a comment that shows exactly what I mean. Some of us are looking forward to the winter charts with just the same anticipation as we look at any charts. Snow would be really interesting, but record January temperatures would be just as interesting to me. We don't all "long for" anything. Many of us are just constantly fascinated by what comes along and are really intersted in the changing gfs charts, whatever they show.

Personally, I'm far more interested in trying to forecast correctly from the long-range gfs, than I am trying to forecast a particular type of weather. Snow is a real event, as we get so little in GWUK and it will be great to try and hone my gfs LRF method on winter charts and see if I can continue the success I've had over the summer, but there is no way I'm going to be constantly looking for one type of weather at the expense of all others. That's just so selective as to be silly to me. I'll bet I get called a cold ramper, amongst other things, at some stage this winter when I make a "spot" of colder weather. mind you there will be so many spotting cold weather as soon as it appears at the edge of reality on the T+360gfs, that I'm sure my own spots will be drowned. I just hope those people are prepared to keep a public record of what they do and have their record of LR prediction open to scrutiny, instead of claiming "I saw that 2 weeks ago", when cold comes, when they've been crying that particular "wolf" week after week, then got lucky.

It will snow this winter. It will also get cold. Overall, I think the chances are that it will be milder than average and I am more than happy to explain those reasons in depth on any thread in which someone asks me to.

Paul

Paul, I'm sorry you take offense to people's ineterest in cold weather, cold ramping and talk of easterlies, but at the end of the day theres nothing wrong with it and I'm just as entitled to do so as I am regarding the beloved jet stream/ atlantic westerly weather types.

Steve's analysis is one concentrating on cold potential (it is a WINTER analysis afterall) so of course it is going to contain pointers to cold, and subsequently attract interest from the large majority of members during the winter season.

In reality, Mr Realist, most of the winter posters actually do long for an easterly like Jan 87 or Feb 91. I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that. Maybe we can do a poll on your bets section? :)

Yes, the charts are always interesting... just a bit more so when they show ice days and snow set ups at T+90 hrs... its all part of the fun & excitement.

I'm beginning to think you relish in trying to stamp the hopes of the snow lovers on here? :) ..perhaps it gives you a sense of GW minded authority ;) it just seems a little over eager.

By the way, is GWUK your own acronym or a commonly used & recognised one?

Edited by Big Bear
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
It is 1911 so not bad BB

BFTP

If you've never been to Nigara Falls it's well worth a visit in winter from what I can gather. Talking to some of the people who have worked there for decades, they told me that in winter the spray from the falls often freezes as soon as it touches surfaces in the town itself creating a crystalline landscape.

The falls themselves have frozen a few times on the surface, but the water continues to flow underneath. Obviously they don't freeze as hard as shown in the picture very often! Having said that winters can be bitter in that region and I am definitely going to take a weekend up there towards the end of January or February. A good use for all the Marriott points I've been building up!

Incidentally, the American Falls were actually drained in 1969. Unbelieveable when you see the volume and force of the water going over the falls. Some great pictures exist of people standing underneath the dry falls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dryniagara.jpg

Can't get the picture to appear in the post. Same problem as BFTP!

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Paul, I'm sorry you take offense to people's ineterest in cold weather, cold ramping and talk of easterlies, but at the end of the day theres nothing wrong with it and I'm just as entitled to do so as I am regarding the beloved jet stream/ atlantic westerly weather types.

Steve's analysis is one concentrating on cold potential (it is a WINTER analysis afterall) so of course it is going to contain pointers to cold, and subsequently attract interest from the large majority of members during the winter season.

In reality, Mr Realist, most of the winter posters actually do long for an easterly like Jan 87 or Feb 91. I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that. Maybe we can do a poll on your bets section? :)

Yes, the charts are always interesting... just a bit more so when they show ice days and snow set ups at T+90 hrs... its all part of the fun & excitement.

I'm beginning to think you relish in trying to stamp the hopes of the snow lovers on here? :) ..perhaps it gives you a sense of GW minded authority ;) it just seems a little over eager.

By the way, is GWUK your own acronym or a commonly used & recognised one?

I don't think any of us take offence at people enjoying cold weather, but there is a small group of us on here who try to call it "as it is", which ever way it's going. That will tend, of course, to be mild, but that doesn't make us mild rampers. Speaking for my own part, what does grate at times is the hollering for forecasts and forecasters who tend to bias towards cold. There are one or two whose projections tend to appear almost exclusively when there is cold on the cards, and who then go looking only for cold possibilities. The suggestion in this is that the forecast risks carrying bias, for all that it is populist.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter, but don't confuse more cautionary forecasts with a general tendency to spoil. It may be that the bias lies elsewhere, and that cold forecasters simply enjoy the many "great forecast" type comments that ineviitibly foolow any projection, whatever its provenance, for cold weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Paul, I'm sorry you take offense to people's ineterest in cold weather, cold ramping and talk of easterlies, but at the end of the day theres nothing wrong with it and I'm just as entitled to do so as I am regarding the beloved jet stream/ atlantic westerly weather types.

Steve's analysis is one concentrating on cold potential (it is a WINTER analysis afterall) so of course it is going to contain pointers to cold, and subsequently attract interest from the large majority of members during the winter season.

In reality, Mr Realist, most of the winter posters actually do long for an easterly like Jan 87 or Feb 91. I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that. Maybe we can do a poll on your bets section? :)

Yes, the charts are always interesting... just a bit more so when they show ice days and snow set ups at T+90 hrs... its all part of the fun & excitement.

I'm beginning to think you relish in trying to stamp the hopes of the snow lovers on here? :) ..perhaps it gives you a sense of GW minded authority :) it just seems a little over eager.

By the way, is GWUK your own acronym or a commonly used & recognised one?

That illustrates my earlier response beautifully. Thank you, BB. ;)

Paul

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