Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[carinthian]

Thank you C, exactly what I'd posted, too, apart from the Kara Sea, which the Cryosphere today site has as taking a recent downturn in ice cover. Have you got a link for the evidence for that one - it may well be more up-to-date than the cryosphere, which always lags a few days behind.

I'm way ahead of you on your last paragraph, as I'm sure you've already read.

Overall ice cover, again from cryosphere site, was at the yearly minimum about a week ago, as far as I can tell from the graph. NSIDC had it as "fairly steady" 2 days ago.

Paul

Hi Dawlish,

Search for AMSR-E ice maps and click on latest images 28/9 . Will be about as up to date you will get.

http://polarview.met.no/

cheers

C

[parmenides3]

Hi Dawlish,

Search for AMSR-E ice maps and click on latest images 28/9 . Will be about as up to date you will get.

http://polarview.met.no/

cheers

C

This is a nice link to today's AMSR data: http://www.seaice.dk/iomasa/amsr/thin/today/

Enjoying this discussion, too.

:)P

[Dawlish]

Marvellous you two. Gosh, they really are interesting. I've been playing around with the sites for about 15 minutes - I had to download an updated Java player to get yours P3!

Interesting the Polynyas in the Beaufort sea. I say plural, because it seems there are clearly 2, on:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png

Would the state of openness, or otherwise have to be judged from an icebreaker, or would visual interpretation, based on comparison to past remote sensing, be enough?

Back in the late 1970s I had some involvement in a PhD project to map incoming and outgoing radiation near Almeria, in Spain, to gather data to be able to do just that kind of thing - comparing surface radiation from crops and other surfaces to satellite, false colour imagery. The EU (EC as it was then) was having difficulty in differentiating between different crops that were being grown, via satellite images. What they were really doing was trying to stop some farmers bleeding the CAP, by claiming to be growing crops when they weren't - as the EC monitoring agency couldn't possibly police all of the EU from the ground. The data collection was excruciatingly boring; walking all day, in up to 100F, carring a solar UV/earth IR measuring device and taking readings every 20 paces. Raw research is such fun!

Interesting stuff. I'm pretty sure the same techniques have been applied to ice observations, but I don't know exactly how much they still need surface observation to verify exact ice coverage.

The ones in your link C, show ice concentrations. Do you know if the satellite info is from the satellites launched late last year, in order to do that?

Like I say, fascinating links, TY both.

Paul

Edited September 29, 2006 by Dawlish

[parmenides3]

A couple of things I picked up a minute ago. Please consider the graph to be illustrative, rather than an attempt to bring in GW; I can't be botherted to cross post at the moment. The Map is the Russian info, showing Franz Josef Land & some formation North of Svalbard (still not 'pack', though). The graph shows August anomalies 1979-2006.

:)P

[Dawlish]

A couple of things I picked up a minute ago. Please consider the graph to be illustrative, rather than an attempt to bring in GW; I can't be botherted to cross post at the moment. The Map is the Russian info, showing Franz Josef Land & some formation North of Svalbard (still not 'pack', though). The graph shows August anomalies 1979-2006.

:)P

It just echoes the graphs on the Cryosphere site and everwhere else, where the loss of Arctic ice is chronicled.

Paul

Edited September 29, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

Marvellous you two. Gosh, they really are interesting. I've been playing around with the sites for about 15 minutes - I had to download an updated Java player to get yours P3!

Interesting the Polynyas in the Beaufort sea. I say plural, because it seems there are clearly 2, on:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png

Would the state of openness, or otherwise have to be judged from an icebreaker, or would visual interpretation, based on comparison to past remote sensing, be enough?

Back in the late 1970s I had some involvement in a PhD project to map incoming and outgoing radiation near Almeria, in Spain, to gather data to be able to do just that kind of thing - comparing surface radiation from crops and other surfaces to satellite, false colour imagery. The EU (EC as it was then) was having difficulty in differentiating between different crops that were being grown, via satellite images. What they were really doing was trying to stop some farmers bleeding the CAP, by claiming to be growing crops when they weren't - as the EC monitoring agency couldn't possibly police all of the EU from the ground. The data collection was excruciatingly boring; walking all day, in up to 100F, carring a solar UV/earth IR measuring device and taking readings every 20 paces. Raw research is such fun!

Interesting stuff. I'm pretty sure the same techniques have been applied to ice observations, but I don't know exactly how much they still need surface observation to verify exact ice coverage.

The ones in your link C, show ice concentrations. Do you know if the satellite info is from the satellites launched late last year, in order to do that?

Like I say, fascinating links, TY both.

Paul

Hi Dawlish,

I have never seen the Polynyas (2 now as you point out ) in that region of the Beaufort Basin. Always closer to the Siberian or Canadian landmass. Thermal plumes can be sent over these open sections high into the Arctic Atmosphere, usually associated with a period of westerly winds. I don't have a clue who actually monitors them as access would be very difficult in that location of the NW passage. Will interesting to see how long they last.

The ice analsyis is produced by a team of ice map experts who study the very latest visual SAR images, Infra Red and observations from a whole range of surface and near surface log reports.

C

[carinthian]

It just echoes the graphs on the Cryosphere site and everwhere else, where the loss of Arctic ice is chronicled.

Paul

Hi,

Our friends at the Russian Department of Hydrometeorology have been griding these images from nearly 10 years. There accurracy is second to none and this weeks reports shows there is more ice in their sectors than the past 2 years and probably one of the better starts since 1997. The graph compares for the wider Northern Hemisphere and is in my experience open to doubt.

Thats enough for today. Off to the pub for a game of doms and a pint of Sam Smiths Bitter (or two ).

C

[Dawlish]

Hi,

The graph compares for the wider Northern Hemisphere and is in my experience open to doubt.

C

C. You're surely not saying that global agencies, such as NOAA and NSIDC are wrong about the overall downward trend in ice coverage in the Arctic??

Paul

[ribster]

Going to the top Ribster? How many days are you allowing for the climb?

Hi West, yep going to the top via the Machame route - 6 days on the mountain, 5 up 1 down. If I don't suffer too much with altitude sickness anyway!

Have a lovely time - bring us back each a stick of frozen rock! <_<

Tamara

Thanks, maybe I can bring a taste of winter back!

[carinthian]

Good Evening,

Just food for thought, the early cold spell in now well established in the far northeast of Greenland. Temperatures at present on course be one of the coldest September nights since 1983. -26C on the cards in Nord Station or Hall land. -30.4 C is the record.

C

[parmenides3]

Good Evening,

Just food for thought, the early cold spell in now well established in the far northeast of Greenland. Temperatures at present on course be one of the coldest September nights since 1983. -26C on the cards in Nord Station or Hall land. -30.4 C is the record.

C

Definitely food, Carinth. Just checked, and Nuuk is 11.3C, Tromso 9C and Svalbard -2C; any idea how these stack up as figures for late September, for comparison?

:)P

[carinthian]

Good Evening,

Just food for thought, the early cold spell in now well established in the far northeast of Greenland. Temperatures at present on course be one of the coldest September nights since 1983. -26C on the cards in Nord Station or Hall land. -30.4 C is the record.

C

Morning,

Average temps at this time of year around -3C in Svalbard. Presently Polar Low producing snowfall will be followed by a real taste of winter as temps drop later as a very cold air mass spreads in from the Greenland Basin.

C

[tinybill]

Morning,

Average temps at this time of year around -3C in Svalbard. Presently Polar Low producing snowfall will be followed by a real taste of winter as temps drop later as a very cold air mass spreads in from the Greenland Basin.

C

is your winter early this or is it more intense carunthiam then normel!!

[carinthian]

is your winter early this or is it more intense carunthiam then normel!!

hI tinybill,

Temps over the past few weeks have been nearer to normal values, but early cold pooling in the Greenland Basin and North Barent Sea means ice amount should increase more quickly will help with any advection of cold air during the coming winter season.

C

[parmenides3]

I'm still monitoring the state of the polynya and surrounding areas in the Beaufort and Arctic Basin. Though it has shrunk a lot, the ice concentrations at both 'ends' are down to between 20 - 60%, and much of the freeze-over is partial. With Anchorage forecasting strong Easterlies in the Beaufort from the Bering Sea, Northerlies from the Chuchki, and a high over the central Arctic, complemented by strong lows either side of the Bering Strait, moving West and inland, it still seems possible that we will see a 'separation' of that large chunk, which I reckon is about 800 km x 100km, later in the week, as a result of wind action.

I'll leave you, Carinth., to keep us updated on 'our' regions of the Arctic.

:)P

[Snowyowl9]

Good Evening,

Just food for thought, the early cold spell in now well established in the far northeast of Greenland. Temperatures at present on course be one of the coldest September nights since 1983. -26C on the cards in Nord Station or Hall land. -30.4 C is the record.

C

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn062.png

http://www.wetterzentral.de/archive/ra/200...00220051001.gif

What were the temperatures this time last year as that was quite a cold pool in Greenland?

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1202.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png

S9.

[carinthian]

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn062.png

http://www.wetterzentral.de/archive/ra/200...00220051001.gif

What were the temperatures this time last year as that was quite a cold pool in Greenland?

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1202.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png

S9.

Hi Snowyowl,

Yes it was a very cold October with some near record low October temperatures on the Summitt, down to -50C on a few occasions, however, the Northern Stations weren't as cold as they are now. The main difference is the postion of the polar vortex, much further east this Autumn. Remember, this time last year a very warm Russian block prevailed, however cold incurrions into the Barent from the Arctic are more prominent so far this season.

C

[Snowyowl9]

Hi Snowyowl,

Yes it was a very cold October with some near record low October temperatures on the Summitt, down to -50C on a few occasions, however, the Northern Stations weren't as cold as they are now. The main difference is the postion of the polar vortex, much further east this Autumn. Remember, this time last year a very warm Russian block prevailed, however cold incurrions into the Barent from the Arctic are more prominent so far this season.

C

Hi Carinthian.

Thanks for the reply I do remember that russia was very warm indeed last year and it took along while to cool down...and noticed this time it has cooled much more.

Of course there was a greenland high present for a good few months last summer/autumn.

S9

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian.

Thanks for the reply I do remember that russia was very warm indeed last year and it took along while to cool down...and noticed this time it has cooled much more.

Of course there was a greenland high present for a good few months last summer/autumn.

S9

Hi,

Very prominent last October and then low and be-hold a warm winter followed . On the otherhand Russia went from warm to cold.

C

[kippure]

Well its starting to stay cold

[Snowyowl9]

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn062.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220051002.gif

Justed noticed that from yesterday a mispell

S9.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220051001.gif

I`ll put the both in from last year it changed dramatically in Greenland on the 2nd.

S9

[Dawlish]

It is surprising how the total amount of Arctcic ice is still bumping along, not much above the Year's minimum. As P3 has said, September 24th is the latest date on which the minimum has been reached; we are over a week later and it is barely above the year's minimum. It's getting dark in them thar latitudes, for goodness sake! I know some eastern areas are increasing, but it is being balanced by others still melting in the West.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Paul

Edited October 2, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

It is surprising how the total amount of Arctcic ice is still bumping along, not much above the Year's minimum. As P3 has said, September 24th is the latest date on which the minimum has been reached; we are over a week later and it is barely above the year's minimum. It's getting dark in them thar latitudes, for goodness sake! I know some eastern areas are increasing, but it is being balanced by others still melting in the West.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Paul

Now then Paul,what have I told you about those charts! Anyway, I thought you were going to mow the grass. Much to wet to mow mine. A visit to the pub looks the best bet.

Cheers,

C

[carinthian]

I'm still monitoring the state of the polynya and surrounding areas in the Beaufort and Arctic Basin. Though it has shrunk a lot, the ice concentrations at both 'ends' are down to between 20 - 60%, and much of the freeze-over is partial. With Anchorage forecasting strong Easterlies in the Beaufort from the Bering Sea, Northerlies from the Chuchki, and a high over the central Arctic, complemented by strong lows either side of the Bering Strait, moving West and inland, it still seems possible that we will see a 'separation' of that large chunk, which I reckon is about 800 km x 100km, later in the week, as a result of wind action.

I'll leave you, Carinth., to keep us updated on 'our' regions of the Arctic.

:)P

Hi Pm3,

I know you are taking a keen interest in ice developments in the West Canadian Arctic zones. Can you please tell how far the polar ice edge is from Barrow Point? Looking on the latest images it does seem some way off ,although the Archorage reports state it to be closer to Barrow. Air temperatures are now dropping in the Basins, is that having any effect to reduce the polynya out in that unusual location?

Regards

C

[Dawlish]

Now then Paul,what have I told you about those charts! Anyway, I thought you were going to mow the grass. Much to wet to mow mine. A visit to the pub looks the best bet.

Cheers,

C

Heh, heh, thanks for reminding me! There may be an update from the NSIDC in the next couple of days, that will help us.

Paul, off to mow a meadow, with his dog.