Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[kold weather]

Continue the debate here!

[kippure]

Its certainly now cold enough .

Edited September 22, 2006 by kippure

[Anti-Mild]

Can I take the time to urge people not to post stuff in this thread that would be better placed in the Environment Change forum?

I enjoy reading this thread but there has been some needless and tiresome bickering !

AM

[parmenides3]

The latest images from all of the main ice analysis pages now shows a change to the division/polynya in the High Arctic/Beaufort Sea. Whereas it was, in sequence, an 'inlet' then a polynya, then an inlet again, now the ice concentration at the Western end has changed dramatically. IWICOS shows it most dramatically, but the image below, from MMAB, illustrates my conjecture: it looks possible that a huge (really huge) chunk of multi-year ice could soon be separated entirely from the main pack and start making its own way around the North Canadian/Alaskan coasts. Why is this a worry? Assuming it only shifts, then is frozen in place soon, come the Spring thaw, there could be half a million KM2 of multi-year ice in danger of being melted by a repetition of the recent years' anomalously warm coastal zones. I know we haven't even started with this Winter yet, but should this happen, next year's minima for Summer through to Winter could be way beyond anything we have yet seen.

And no, this is not about GW, it is about the current and possible future condition of the Arctic sea ice.

Comments welcomed.

[Anti-Mild]

The latest images from all of the main ice analysis pages now shows a change to the division/polynya in the High Arctic/Beaufort Sea. Whereas it was, in sequence, an 'inlet' then a polynya, then an inlet again, now the ice concentration at the Western end has changed dramatically. IWICOS shows it most dramatically, but the image below, from MMAB, illustrates my conjecture: it looks possible that a huge (really huge) chunk of multi-year ice could soon be separated entirely from the main pack and start making its own way around the North Canadian/Alaskan coasts. Why is this a worry? Assuming it only shifts, then is frozen in place soon, come the Spring thaw, there could be half a million KM2 of multi-year ice in danger of being melted by a repetition of the recent years' anomalously warm coastal zones. I know we haven't even started with this Winter yet, but should this happen, next year's minima for Summer through to Winter could be way beyond anything we have yet seen.

And no, this is not about GW, it is about the current and possible future condition of the Arctic sea ice.

Comments welcomed.

That really is quite an alarming picture and as you say next summer looks like being the season to watch in term of record low ice levels .

It's getting to the stage (or may even be at the stage already) that even a very cold Winter and Spring up in the Arctic circle may not be enough to prevent continued loss of sea ice.

[parmenides3]

That really is quite an alarming picture and as you say next summer looks like being the season to watch in term of record low ice levels .

It's getting to the stage (or may even be at the stage already) that even a very cold Winter and Spring up in the Arctic circle may not be enough to prevent continued loss of sea ice.

It really does seem impossible to anticipate exactly what will happen in the Arctic, either with temps or sea-ice levels. The degree of uncertainty about both the mechanisms and the forces involved is simply too great. As Carinthian is so fond of saying, this is a case, as ever, of waiting to see what the coming season brings.

:)P

Edited September 23, 2006 by parmenides3

[parmenides3]

<_< Double post! Bad me.

This is good stuff; make sure you scroll down the page: http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...seaicenews.html

:)P

[Dawlish]

<_< Double post! Bad me.

This is good stuff; make sure you scroll down the page: http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...seaicenews.html

:)P

I'd echo what P3 says and I'd counsel a look at that page and the site as a whole.

Paul

PS You can post again, now P3, without risking the hat-trick!

[Gray-Wolf]

Is it a 'polynya' or is there just a stuborn patch of ice to the south of the line of this summers melt? The edges joining the 'north side' to the 'south side' to both east and west just look like broken up slush connecting a southern ice island to the main body of ice .

If you could see it that way then maybe the extent of this years melt (of the arctic ice sheet) would be very dramatic indeed!

[carinthian]

Continue the debate here!

Hi Just been away to watch horse racing at Ascot over the weekend and come back to see a new thread 2 has been set up. Why ? . Can't relate to all those previous posts now. Anyway stayed at my old digs in Old Bracknell town close to HQ, that was. Seems strange with-out Met Office there now. You may be pleased to know that I backed a load of old nags !

Back to subject ,just viewed the latest Polar View images and noticed some ice formation on the West Coast of Spitsbergen . If you look at Hornsund ,which is a fairly narrow fjord in the south you will witness the ice formation on the web cam at the Polish Research Centre.

Will up-date ice situation during the week.

Cheers

C

[parmenides3]

Is it a 'polynya' or is there just a stuborn patch of ice to the south of the line of this summers melt? The edges joining the 'north side' to the 'south side' to both east and west just look like broken up slush connecting a southern ice island to the main body of ice .

If you could see it that way then maybe the extent of this years melt (of the arctic ice sheet) would be very dramatic indeed!

Gray Wolf, it depends who and when you read; nsidc likes to call it a polynya; for a while it has been, but one end kept opening up, and now the other end seems to be melting rapidly. Really, it's a contest now between the melting in some areas vs. the freezing in others. Whether or not that big chunk breaks off depends on how cold it gets at the 'near' end. The link above has some good details.

Nice to see you, C.; you'll have to ask the mods why they started a new thread; probably too many pages, or something.

<_< P

Edit: PS. A month ago, there was one solid mass of ice. The hole has appeared since early-mid August. The 30 day archive on CT should show the change nicely.

Edited September 24, 2006 by parmenides3

[BrickFielder]

Temperatures to the north of Canada especially to the north east look high preventing ice build up. Repeated low pressure systems have swept warm air to the north of canada and ice build here is likely to be very slow.

This would suggest that there may not be a persistent high pressure over the candian artic till late in the winter. This may limit the cold pooling of air over Canada, leaving cold to build up over Russia and spill out into the Pacific, giving us a strong Pacific jet again for the early winter.

Canadain Coast guard is showing some melt over the last week or two.

Canadian coast guard ice extents.

Take from the Canadian Ice service

Canadian Ice reports

FECN07 CWIS 181800

THIRTY DAY FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARCTIC WATERS FROM MID-SEPTEMBER TO MID-

OCTOBER ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 18 SEPTEMBER 2006.

Mean air temperatures were above normal during the first two weeks

of September except near normal over Barrow Strait.

Forecast ice conditions for September 18th to September 30th.

A low pressure system developing over Baffin Bay will result in a

light to moderate northern flow over the area during the second half of

September. Near to above normal temperatures will prevail over the

Eastern Arctic during the last two weeks of September. Little ice decay

is expected over Foxe Basin and from Fury and Hecla Strait to Pelly Bay.

Patches of very open to open drift old ice from Crozier Strait will

continue to flow into the extreme western section of Barrow Strait and in

northern Peel Sound during the last two weeks of September. Patches of

close pack old with some first year ice will drift southward into the

eastern entrance to Jones Sound maintaining very open to open drift old

ice along the eastern side of Devon Island. Areas of open drift to close

pack ice conditions will dominate over Jones Sound. Some new ice will

form over western Barrow Strait, in McDougall Sound and in the extreme

northwestern section of Baffin Bay during the last week of September.

Close to very close pack old with some first year ice will persist in the

entrance to Pelly Bay, while open drift old ice will spread over the rest

of Pelly Bay. Very open to open drift old ice will dominate in northern

Committee Bay and Fury and Hecla Strait. Some of the ice from Fury and

Hecla Strait will slowly drift eastward into the extreme northwestern

section of Foxe Basin during the last two weeks of September. Bergy water

will prevail over Davis Strait, most of Baffin Bay, Lancaster Sound and

Prince Regent Inlet, while open water will persist over eastern Barrow

Strait and over most of Foxe Basin.

Forecast ice conditions for October 1st to October 15th.

Above normal temperatures will persist over the whole Eastern

Arctic during the first half of October. New ice growth will progress at

a slow pace over the Eastern Arctic during the period. Very open to open

drift old ice will prevail over the extreme western section of Barrow

Strait and in northern Peel Sound. Areas of close pack old ice will

persist over northwestern Baffin Bay, in the eastern entrance and the

southern shore of Jones Sound and along eastern Devon Island. Little

change will be expected in the ice conditions from Fury and Hecla Strait

to Pelly Bay and in northwestern Foxe Basin. New ice will form over

eastern Barrow Strait, Jones and northern Peel Sounds and northwestern

Baffin Bay in early October and grow to grey with some greywhite ice

during the second week of October. At that time, new with some grey ice

will develop over Lancaster Sound, from Prince Regent Inlet to Committee

Bay and in shallow bays and inlet over northern Foxe Basin. Bergy water

will prevail over Davis Strait and most of Baffin Bay, while open water

will persist over most of Foxe Basin.

THE NEXT 30 DAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON 03 OCTOBER 2006.

END

[carinthian]

LATEST ARCTIC ICE REPORT AS OF START OF AUTUMN EQINOX PLUS OCTOBER FORECAST.

The North Pole in now in twilight zone until early October and then soon to be followed by total darkess and no sun for nearly 6 months. Even Mid-Arctic loses the sun by the end of October. Below freezing temps and darkness soon to take hold.

Out in the Beaufort Sea the Polar ice edge remains fragmented and some way back again on the seasonal limit.

Overall the Beaufort Basin is showing a noticable shortfall in the West Canadian Arctic sector. In spite of a prolonged spell of Arctic winds into the North Barent ,the sea ice edge has yet to make general landfall onto the Northern coastline of Svalbard. The main Polar ice edge remains about 50 Km out in the Ocean, however I expect Russian images later this week to confirm some pockets have made landfall. Overall from the Greenland Sea through to the Kara Sea and Latev looks better for ice formation than this time last year.

The Arctic Oscillation is about to go into a negative phase with a general build of pressure over Greenland and into the Arctic Basin. A cold pool will form over the Beaufort Basin and replace the prolonged spell of warmth in that region. Conditions look good for some fairly intense cold to develop in October out in the Barent and Kara Sea.

Nearer to home expect a fairly cyclonic October with mild conditions to be replaced by a gradual change to more seasonal temperatures.

Carinthian

[John Cox]

Great report C.

I can almost feel the cold in Artic regions.

[parmenides3]

LATEST ARCTIC ICE REPORT AS OF START OF AUTUMN EQINOX PLUS OCTOBER FORECAST.

The North Pole in now in twilight zone until early October and then soon to be followed by total darkess and no sun for nearly 6 months. Even Mid-Arctic loses the sun by the end of October. Below freezing temps and darkness soon to take hold.

Out in the Beaufort Sea the Polar ice edge remains fragmented and some way back again on the seasonal limit.

Overall the Beaufort Basin is showing a noticable shortfall in the West Canadian Arctic sector. In spite of a prolonged spell of Arctic winds into the North Barent ,the sea ice edge has yet to make general landfall onto the Northern coastline of Svalbard. The main Polar ice edge remains about 50 Km out in the Ocean, however I expect Russian images later this week to confirm some pockets have made landfall. Overall from the Greenland Sea through to the Kara Sea and Latev looks better for ice formation than this time last year.

The Arctic Oscillation is about to go into a negative phase with a general build of pressure over Greenland and into the Arctic Basin. A cold pool will form over the Beaufort Basin and replace the prolonged spell of warmth in that region. Conditions look good for some fairly intense cold to develop in October out in the Barent and Kara Sea.

Nearer to home expect a fairly cyclonic October with mild conditions to be replaced by a gradual change to more seasonal temperatures.

Carinthian

AO :)P

[Anti-Mild]

AO :)P

As long as it stays negative until April then we'll all be happy!!

[parmenides3]

As long as it stays negative until April then we'll all be happy!!

For those who don't know why A-M would like this to be so, check: http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/arctic_oscillation.html

:)P

[frozen_north]

Even better if we has a negative AO and NAO

[The PIT]

For those who don't know why A-M would like this to be so, check: http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/arctic_oscillation.html

:)P

Cheers Mate

[carinthian]

LATEST ARCTIC ICE REPORT AS OF START OF AUTUMN EQINOX PLUS OCTOBER FORECAST.

The North Pole in now in twilight zone until early October and then soon to be followed by total darkess and no sun for nearly 6 months. Even Mid-Arctic loses the sun by the end of October. Below freezing temps and darkness soon to take hold.

Out in the Beaufort Sea the Polar ice edge remains fragmented and some way back again on the seasonal limit.

Overall the Beaufort Basin is showing a noticable shortfall in the West Canadian Arctic sector. In spite of a prolonged spell of Arctic winds into the North Barent ,the sea ice edge has yet to make general landfall onto the Northern coastline of Svalbard. The main Polar ice edge remains about 50 Km out in the Ocean, however I expect Russian images later this week to confirm some pockets have made landfall. Overall from the Greenland Sea through to the Kara Sea and Latev looks better for ice formation than this time last year.

The Arctic Oscillation is about to go into a negative phase with a general build of pressure over Greenland and into the Arctic Basin. A cold pool will form over the Beaufort Basin and replace the prolonged spell of warmth in that region. Conditions look good for some fairly intense cold to develop in October out in the Barent and Kara Sea.

Nearer to home expect a fairly cyclonic October with mild conditions to be replaced by a gradual change to more seasonal temperatures.

Carinthian

Good news from Franz Josef Land(the most northerly land in Euro/Asia), first year ice has formed widely throughout much of the archipelago. This is much earlier than last year. Forecast of drift ice towards Novaya Zemlya and into the Kara Sea is expected to continue. Still waiting for the latest reports from Svalbard regarding whether Polar ice edge has made any landfall yet. Should know tomorrow.

Carinth

[parmenides3]

Good news from Franz Josef Land(the most northerly land in Euro/Asia), first year ice has formed widely throughout much of the archipelago. This is much earlier than last year. Forecast of drift ice towards Novaya Zemlya and into the Kara Sea is expected to continue. Still waiting for the latest reports from Svalbard regarding whether Polar ice edge has made any landfall yet. Should know tomorrow.

Carinth

Thanks, C. Keep it coming!

:)P

[summer blizzard]

This is very good news, and data also indicates that the Polar Jet Stream has sunk south of Beaufort, indicating that the ice extent should increase.

[Polar Continental]

Good news from Franz Josef Land(the most northerly land in Euro/Asia), first year ice has formed widely throughout much of the archipelago. This is much earlier than last year. Forecast of drift ice towards Novaya Zemlya and into the Kara Sea is expected to continue. Still waiting for the latest reports from Svalbard regarding whether Polar ice edge has made any landfall yet. Should know tomorrow.

Carinth

Good news indeed carinthian, thanks for your continued reports.

and going by the GFS projection in to next week, some very impressive cold pooling beginning to become established.

not much at present, but look at next week :lol:

Paul

Edited September 27, 2006 by Paul Carfoot

[summer blizzard]

It should be noted that due to the heat fed into the Arctic this September, it is now well above average.

[Dawlish]

Well, I hate to be the bearer of "bad" tidings, to you snowy lot, but....... It appears from the Cryosphere today site that all the areas to the North of Siberia; East Siberian Sea, Laptev Sea and the Kara Sea have all actually lost ice in the last updates of the graphs. As the Beaufort Sea is still losing ice, as the open polynya is allowing warm water to penetrate further polewards, this means that the overall Northern Hemisphere ice has reduced again, taking it back to the year's minimum and suggesting, contrary to the icy "good news" has been posted on here this week, that ice levels will, at best, bump along near the minimum for a little while longer, or that the year's minimum may not yet have quite been reached.

Is it the cryosphere data that isn't reliable?

Paul