Autumn and Winter

[Snowyowl9]

Hi Snowyowl,

Yes I can remember that day so well, almost 20 years ago now, unfortunately I had to go to work, but it became so cold in the brewery where I work, the beer froze solid in the barrels which were stored outside, production also had to stop because the road tankers became stranded as the diesel froze solid in the tanks.

The maximum temperature that amazing day didn’t get any higher than –8c with a near gale force easterly wind, it was incredible.

Shortly afterwards around the weekend I took my nephew who was only 4, sledging on our nearby hills, he still remembers to this day me jumping into a huge drift which came up to my neck.

If only..... That was the last time he remembers seeing real snow.

Regards

Paul

Hi Paul

Yes I too remember that winter very well those were the days,when diesel would freeze,go so far along the road then you`re stuck.

I remember the forecasts on the bbc when they had max`s of -4/-5 and ever since then I`ve been comparing the maxes they`ve had to then,no contest.

I wished that I`d started recording temperatures earlier.

I remember the blizzards and after that georgeous sunshine with the lightest of light snow flakes just coming down all day in blue sky sparkling,the powderiest snow I`ve ever known,and what was the most amazing thing is the sun would not thaw nothing in the sun not even the frost on a gate that was unbelivable at the time.

It must of been cold for that to happen as our highest point is 390meters.

S9.

[johnholmes]

nothing compared to 1962-63 believe me.

[skifreak]

My main view is that until we see a return at least to annual CETs below 10*C we will never see a truly cold winter, and that a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 will be the best we shall get unless our weather at least reverts back to any pre 1997 type of weather patterns.

Winters like 2001... bring it on!

The Traverse, CairnGorm Mountain, May 2001.

[Snowyowl9]

nothing compared to 1962-63 believe me.

I wasn`t around then :blush: but I`ve heard so much about it.

What was so impressive about 1987 was the low maximum temperatures,december 1981 was another one.

[johnholmes]

hi

Its a bit long but worth a read if you like lots of low temps!

Monthly figures for the start of the cold spell on 22nd December 1962

Date min max mean

22 -4.4 2.2 -1.1

23 -6.1 0.6 -2.8

24 -9.3 0.0 -4.7

25 -11.8 -3.9 -7.9

26 -11.1 2.2 -4.5

27 -1.4 1.1 -0.2

28 -7.7 -2.2 -5.0

29 -5.1 -1.7 -3.4

30 -1.7 0.0 -0.9

31 -0.6 0.6 0.0

Mean temp for 10 days = -3.0C

Values for January 1963

Date min max mean

1 -0.1 0.7 0.3

2 -1.3 -0.6 -1.0

3 -0.7 0.5 -0.1

4 -0.1 1.0 0.5

5 0.6 1.1 0.9

6 1.1 1.8 1.5

7 -3.5 1.3 -1.1

8 -5.7 0.7 -2.5

9 -8.0 1.3 -3.4

10 -6.6 1.5 -2.6

11 -10.4 -5.0 -7.7

12 -5.4 -3.3 -4.4

13 -8.3 0.0 -4.2

14 -1.4 2.8 0.7

15 -7.7 2.3 -2.7

16 -2.7 0.0 -1.4

17 -9.2 -2.1 -5.7

18 -13.8 0.9 -6.5

19 -5.9 -0.3 -3.1

20 -3.3 -0.8 -2.1

21 -4.1 -1.4 -2.8

22 -13.6 -3.4 -8.5

23 -15.4 -3.3 -9.4

24 -12.2 -5.6 -8.9

25 -8.6 -0.6 -4.6

26 -6.2 5.3 -0.5

27 -3.9 2.3 -0.8

28 0.5 2.4 1.5

29 1.4 2.9 2.2

30 0.1 1.3 0.7

31 -1.7 2.5 0.4

Mean temp for month = -2.4C

Values for February

Date min max mean

1 -3.5 -0.7 -2.1

2 -9.8 -3.5 -6.7

3 -6.7 -4.1 -5.4

4 -10.2 1.6 -4.3

5 -8.4 0.2 -4.1

6 -3.7 -0.7 -2.2

7 -1.6 1.6 0.0

8 0.0 2.9 1.5

9 -1.7 2.9 0.6

10 -1.4 1.7 0.2

11 -1.8 0.6 -0.6

12 -0.1 2.1 1.0

13 -0.7 4.1 1.0

14 -2.6 1.7 -0.5

15 -0.1 1.2 0.6

16 -1.9 0.4 -0.8

17 -1.7 1.7 0.0

18 -1.7 2.2 0.3

19 -1.5 0.3 0.6

20 -4.8 2.6 -1.1

21 -3.9 4.1 0.1

22 -2.1 2.8 0.4

23 -2.8 1.9 -0.5

24 -6.7 0.6 -3.1

25 -9.8 2.2 -3.8

26 -5.2 4.8 -0.2

27 -4.6 2.8 -0.9

28 -3.3 5.4 1.1

Mean temp for month = -1.1C

Mean temp for January and February = -1.7C

Comparison of temperatures at Langar between 1947 and 1963

1947 January avge min=-1.0 avge max=3.5 mean=1.3

1963 January avge min=-5.0 avge max=0.2 mean=-2.4

1947 February avge min=-4.2 avge max=1.5 mean=-2.3

1963 February avge min=-3.7 avge max=1.8 mean=-0.9

So for the two months being compared 1947 showed a mean temp of -0.5 and 1963 gave -1.7C

I cannot get data for frosts and snow for 1947 but for 1963 these were;

days with snow falling= 20 in Jan and 19 in Feb; lying snow=31 in Jan and 19 in Feb.

Air frosts in January were 26 and 27 in February.

John

[Hiya]

Winters like 2001... bring it on! :blush:

The Traverse, CairnGorm Mountain, May 2001.

Thats an excellent photo, first time i've seen a cut thru the snow like that in the Highlands.

Where about are u from?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Heres one possible comparable statistic analysis for those who can?

Autumn Sunshine Amounts Vs. Winter CET

If anybody is able to do some comparisons, it would be interesting (and appreciated :blush: )

[Stu_London]

nothing compared to 1962-63 believe me.

The remarkable thing about Jan 1987 was the severity of the cold, although it only lasted a short period of time

496 dam air in East anglia

-20C at 850hpa

widespread daytime maxima of -7 to -10

Whilst 1962-3 was the mother of all cold spells in the 20th Century in terms of its length, I don't see anything in the historic charts that compares with the 1987 event.

1947 was less cold than 62-63 but more snowy. In fact if we had the same synoptics in 2007, I would bet that much of the ppn would be slush (higher SSTs, urban heating etc)

[Weather-history]

Heres one possible comparable statistic analysis for those who can?

Autumn Sunshine Amounts Vs. Winter CET

If anybody is able to do some comparisons, it would be interesting (and appreciated :blush: )

Well the sunniest autumn in the Areal series is autumn 1959 and it was followed by a winter of CET 4.6

The dullest in that series is Autumn 1968 and it was followed by a winter with a CET of 3.2

Autumn 1934: 270.7hrs -----> winter 6.1

Autumn 1939: 275.0hrs -----> winter 1.5

Autumn 1946: 220.6hrs -----> winter 1.1

Autumn 1950: 262.8hrs -----> winter 2.9

Autumn 1955: 264.2hrs -----> winter 2.9

Autumn 1962: 264.2hrs -----> winter -0.3

Autumn 1974: 267.3hrs -----> winter 6.4

Autumn 1978: 296.9hrs -----> winter 1.6

Autumn 1981: 308.8hrs -----> winter 2.6

Autumn 1984: 252.1hrs -----> winter 2.9

Autumn 1988: 322.4hrs -----> winter 6.5

Autumn 1989: 296.4hrs -----> winter 6.2

Autumn 1990: 303.0hrs -----> winter 3.0

Autumn 1994: 267.6hrs -----> winter 5.9

Autumn 1995: 319.0hrs -----> winter 3.0

Autumn 1997: 330.8hrs -----> winter 6.1

Not really much of a correlation Chris.

Edited September 17, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thanks MrD. I was just thinking more cloud, less sun, less warmth.

Back to the drawing board :blush:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Folks

Yes you cannot compare the winters of 63 and 87 but below is the example of the severity of Jan 1987. Remember these are daytime MAXIMA!

Here are the noon temperatures from Gatwick from the 7th to the 20th: 0, -2, 1, -1, -5, -7, -7, -3, -2, -1, -3, -3, -3, -1. There was severe frost damage to plants on the Isles of Scilly. Freezing rain in the south Midlands. Generall very dry - the driest since 1964. This was the last significantly cold month of the century (with +0.8C CET, the last month beneath 1C).

It was a very significant coldspell. Oh WATCH OUT for this Jan...particularly the new year into the first 10 days :blush:

BFTP

Edited September 17, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As I continue to think about a winter forecast, there are indications of an unusually strong jet stream developing across the Atlantic this winter, which would probably be associated with more mild than cold weather, but also a high index for blocking over Scandinavia, so perhaps the 1987 scenario may try to repeat in January.

Roger

That would seem to fit with a southerly jet and 'direct hits' for the UK. As you say plenty of mild mixed in there with IMO notable wintry spells akin to 77/78

BFTP

[Dawlish]

Folks

Yes you cannot compare the winters of 63 and 87 but below is the example of the severity of Jan 1987. Remember these are daytime MAXIMA!

Here are the noon temperatures from Gatwick from the 7th to the 20th: 0, -2, 1, -1, -5, -7, -7, -3, -2, -1, -3, -3, -3, -1. There was severe frost damage to plants on the Isles of Scilly. Freezing rain in the south Midlands. Generall very dry - the driest since 1964. This was the last significantly cold month of the century (with +0.8C CET, the last month beneath 1C).

It was a very significant coldspell. Oh WATCH OUT for this Jan...particularly the new year into the first 10 days

BFTP

"A cold January, many Internet tipples will reap "

Well known South Devon weather lore.

Paul

:blush:

Edited September 17, 2006 by Dawlish

[Snowyowl9]

hi

Its a bit long but worth a read if you like lots of low temps!

Monthly figures for the start of the cold spell on 22nd December 1962

Date min max mean

22 -4.4 2.2 -1.1

23 -6.1 0.6 -2.8

24 -9.3 0.0 -4.7

25 -11.8 -3.9 -7.9

26 -11.1 2.2 -4.5

27 -1.4 1.1 -0.2

28 -7.7 -2.2 -5.0

29 -5.1 -1.7 -3.4

30 -1.7 0.0 -0.9

31 -0.6 0.6 0.0

Mean temp for 10 days = -3.0C

Values for January 1963

Date min max mean

1 -0.1 0.7 0.3

2 -1.3 -0.6 -1.0

3 -0.7 0.5 -0.1

4 -0.1 1.0 0.5

5 0.6 1.1 0.9

6 1.1 1.8 1.5

7 -3.5 1.3 -1.1

8 -5.7 0.7 -2.5

9 -8.0 1.3 -3.4

10 -6.6 1.5 -2.6

11 -10.4 -5.0 -7.7

12 -5.4 -3.3 -4.4

13 -8.3 0.0 -4.2

14 -1.4 2.8 0.7

15 -7.7 2.3 -2.7

16 -2.7 0.0 -1.4

17 -9.2 -2.1 -5.7

18 -13.8 0.9 -6.5

19 -5.9 -0.3 -3.1

20 -3.3 -0.8 -2.1

21 -4.1 -1.4 -2.8

22 -13.6 -3.4 -8.5

23 -15.4 -3.3 -9.4

24 -12.2 -5.6 -8.9

25 -8.6 -0.6 -4.6

26 -6.2 5.3 -0.5

27 -3.9 2.3 -0.8

28 0.5 2.4 1.5

29 1.4 2.9 2.2

30 0.1 1.3 0.7

31 -1.7 2.5 0.4

Mean temp for month = -2.4C

Values for February

Date min max mean

1 -3.5 -0.7 -2.1

2 -9.8 -3.5 -6.7

3 -6.7 -4.1 -5.4

4 -10.2 1.6 -4.3

5 -8.4 0.2 -4.1

6 -3.7 -0.7 -2.2

7 -1.6 1.6 0.0

8 0.0 2.9 1.5

9 -1.7 2.9 0.6

10 -1.4 1.7 0.2

11 -1.8 0.6 -0.6

12 -0.1 2.1 1.0

13 -0.7 4.1 1.0

14 -2.6 1.7 -0.5

15 -0.1 1.2 0.6

16 -1.9 0.4 -0.8

17 -1.7 1.7 0.0

18 -1.7 2.2 0.3

19 -1.5 0.3 0.6

20 -4.8 2.6 -1.1

21 -3.9 4.1 0.1

22 -2.1 2.8 0.4

23 -2.8 1.9 -0.5

24 -6.7 0.6 -3.1

25 -9.8 2.2 -3.8

26 -5.2 4.8 -0.2

27 -4.6 2.8 -0.9

28 -3.3 5.4 1.1

Mean temp for month = -1.1C

Mean temp for January and February = -1.7C

Comparison of temperatures at Langar between 1947 and 1963

1947 January avge min=-1.0 avge max=3.5 mean=1.3

1963 January avge min=-5.0 avge max=0.2 mean=-2.4

1947 February avge min=-4.2 avge max=1.5 mean=-2.3

1963 February avge min=-3.7 avge max=1.8 mean=-0.9

So for the two months being compared 1947 showed a mean temp of -0.5 and 1963 gave -1.7C

I cannot get data for frosts and snow for 1947 but for 1963 these were;

days with snow falling= 20 in Jan and 19 in Feb; lying snow=31 in Jan and 19 in Feb.

Air frosts in January were 26 and 27 in February.

John

Thanks John very impressive low temperatures there.

I`ll have a look at the archives of 62/63,I have looked at them before but they are certainly worth looking at again.

My parents tell me about 62/63 and those other winters don`t compare.

But I know people who seen the 1947 winter and they do say you aint seen nothing,that`s the one they always mention.

S9.

[Nick F]

Met Office are due to release their winter forecast this Thursday at 10am:

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/...06_7/index.html

... should bring much speculation and interest bearing in mind the 'success' of their last winter forecast.

On a slightly different note, NCEP SST forecasts suggest warm anomalies in the North Atlantic persisting through this autumn and coming winter, and the warm anomalies persisting along the Pacific seaboard of S America which would lead to a continuation of dveloping El Nino conditions.

[moses]

i can think of a few that come close ...

Yuk

Mucky,

Bleurgh,

it's definately a dreich day here!

What about mild ........above average!!

[tugmistress]

What about mild ........above average!!

it's certainly been more than mild today! it reached 21.5c up here! i was positively baking on the pier today. Definately not autumnal today though i do wish these midges would die off now! been the worst aeptember i have known since being here for them

i don't know how it compares, but i moved up here on 1st october 2002 and i seem to remember that october being very warm (i was expecting to have to wear woolly knickers this far north!) and the november being rather windy !

[shuggee]

Don't know if this has been spotted already - but hey!

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/NAO200...6%20-%202007%22

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Cheers Shugs. I'll have a read of that later

I've also been noticing something about our recent pattern from mid-late September. We have a high pressure dominance (which is influencing, rather than being our weather).

This high pressure is a fluctuation from Scandi to Euro High. At the moment this is holding well.

Any suggestions what this could mean for further months? Well, I suppose one suggestion would depend on how much Euro and Scandi cool over Autumn, but an interesting spot?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Met Office are due to release their winter forecast this Thursday at 10am:

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/...06_7/index.html

... should bring much speculation and interest bearing in mind the 'success' of their last winter forecast.

On a slightly different note, NCEP SST forecasts suggest warm anomalies in the North Atlantic persisting through this autumn and coming winter, and the warm anomalies persisting along the Pacific seaboard of S America which would lead to a continuation of dveloping El Nino conditions.

Interesting stuff Nick.

Probably the first time I have seen those charts with very little deviation over a 6 month period.

What were the consequences for a developing El-Nino?*

* Found It

Actually...is the METO winter forecast early this year, or is it always released on the 21st?

[North-Easterly Blast]

I am just desperate to get rid of the warm weather now. It is great when it starts in May or June and throughout the summer but once September starts and the nights draw in I am sick of it and would like to see some proper autumn weather with a mix of wind, rain, drier spells with autumn mists and proper September temps of 17-18*C, not the summer heights of 25*C. Septembers that are cool and wet with wind and rain and 16-18*C temps combined with spells of dry autumn mists and pleasant sunny days do me - not September heatwaves. I would rather only have that in June, July and August.

I would also love to see a warmer and dry, blocked October to make a change from the unsettled wet weather we have had to endure during many Octobers in the last ten years. Hopes are now been dashed that the GFS runs deep in FI are yet again beginning to develop a trend of low pressure developing right across the UK bringing back the wet October pattern of recent years.

It is becoming the most repetitive factor of the post 1997 British climate to get this warm dry September / very wet and average or rather cold October, and if anything this pattern is now becoming even more repetitive than Bartlett Highs in the winter months. Will this ever change and will we ever see a cool wet September being replaced by warm / dry conditions in October again? The last time this happened was in 1995. Or will it just be the September warmth / October wetness year after year?

[Bottesford]

I am just desperate to get rid of the warm weather now. It is great when it starts in May or June and throughout the summer but once September starts and the nights draw in I am sick of it and would like to see some proper autumn weather with a mix of wind, rain, drier spells with autumn mists and proper September temps of 17-18*C, not the summer heights of 25*C. Septembers that are cool and wet with wind and rain and 16-18*C temps combined with spells of dry autumn mists and pleasant sunny days do me - not September heatwaves. I would rather only have that in June, July and August.

I would also love to see a warmer and dry, blocked October to make a change from the unsettled wet weather we have had to endure during many Octobers in the last ten years. Hopes are now been dashed that the GFS runs deep in FI are yet again beginning to develop a trend of low pressure developing right across the UK bringing back the wet October pattern of recent years.

It is becoming the most repetitive factor of the post 1997 British climate to get this warm dry September / very wet and average or rather cold October, and if anything this pattern is now becoming even more repetitive than Bartlett Highs in the winter months. Will this ever change and will we ever see a cool wet September being replaced by warm / dry conditions in October again? The last time this happened was in 1995. Or will it just be the September warmth / October wetness year after year?

September is very often a warm month and I certainly see no problem of a slightly extended summer. Makes the loss of daylight easier to deal with for a while. And besides, it makes up for winter extending into March!

[reef]

I am just desperate to get rid of the warm weather now. It is great when it starts in May or June and throughout the summer but once September starts and the nights draw in I am sick of it and would like to see some proper autumn weather with a mix of wind, rain, drier spells with autumn mists and proper September temps of 17-18*C, not the summer heights of 25*C. Septembers that are cool and wet with wind and rain and 16-18*C temps combined with spells of dry autumn mists and pleasant sunny days do me - not September heatwaves. I would rather only have that in June, July and August.

I would also love to see a warmer and dry, blocked October to make a change from the unsettled wet weather we have had to endure during many Octobers in the last ten years. Hopes are now been dashed that the GFS runs deep in FI are yet again beginning to develop a trend of low pressure developing right across the UK bringing back the wet October pattern of recent years.

It is becoming the most repetitive factor of the post 1997 British climate to get this warm dry September / very wet and average or rather cold October, and if anything this pattern is now becoming even more repetitive than Bartlett Highs in the winter months. Will this ever change and will we ever see a cool wet September being replaced by warm / dry conditions in October again? The last time this happened was in 1995. Or will it just be the September warmth / October wetness year after year?

What about 2001? It featured a cool September followed by a record warm October. There was also a very cold December with an impressive cold spell around new year.

Personally I dont mind warm and sunny weather in September, its a month where you can sit out without a fear of being burnt to a crisp. The only issue I have is with the high humidity, which is especially a problem at night.

With regards to the synoptics and winter, the major theme I see at the moment is that depressions are still struggling to get past the meridian. Us here in the UK are once again stuck in no mans land between high pressure to the east, while depressions stall to our west. This is excellent for September/October as it gives warm and settled weather, however for snow lovers should this pattern hold into the winter, it could provide the same dull, boring winter weather as we had last year. Id much rather prefer a mild and zonal winter, at least those are snowier!

Edited September 18, 2006 by reef

[Big Bear]

Personally I like that NAO forecast. I see a moderate to strong suggestion of Scandy blocking and an Easterly development into Germany, Northern France & the South East quarter of England. Precipitation values look pretty good considering how dry & fruitless imported easterlies have been in recent years.

I see the well above average temperature & rainfall certainties over Greece & Turkey as very encouraging. This suggests a southerly tracking jet and again, blocking the the north & east of UK. Recent winters have seen Bartlett highs & Greece etc. stealing the cold air from Russia because of the 'wrong type' of HP positioning over central Europe.

As for our current mild September 'ruining' chances of a decent winter, and those already in straw clutching mode with regards to pattern matching a mild & dry October... I can only insinuate your faith (or lack of) being ill placed.

Looking forward to the Met Office forecast issued this Thursday. I expect their NAO predictions to mirror those at UCL and backing down from their original strongly positive anomoly suggestion, although still favouring mild.

[Bottesford]

As for our current mild September 'ruining' chances of a decent winter, and those already in straw clutching mode with regards to pattern matching a mild & dry October... I can only insinuate your faith (or lack of) being ill placed.

I agree - no correlation at all. I mean- did a this years cold March 'ruin' the summer? I think not! A pleasent, warm September (and even October) will have NO bearing on snowy episodes in winter.