North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[cheeky_monkey]

You could be in for a suprise today/tonight as a weather warning has just been posted for 4-8 inches of snow. The joys of spring

Congrats on the move - hope you enjoy calgary

Yeah not so much a surprise but a sigh..as it is snowing heavily...you know that english type snow..very wet with big flakes..lol

[Coopsy]

Yeah not so much a surprise but a sigh..as it is snowing heavily...you know that english type snow..very wet with big flakes..lol

Yeah same here but very wet often with rain, no accumulation at all so they def over estimated it with the warning of upto 20cm's, then downgraded to 10cm. I expect the warning will be gone this evening

[Coast]

Satellite map that shows how America's unprecedented heatwave shattered over one thousand temperature records before spring even hit

Three months into the new year and North America has already experienced a historic heat wave with record-breaking temperatures depicted by a NASA satellite. The bright red band on the map shows how a concentrated are of high pressure made temperatures soar compared to the same eight day period in 11 years previously. Imaging from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectradiometer depict the soaring temperatures concentrated in the Midwest, with a lighter red band in the New York area.

More than 1,054 records were broken between the 13-19 by the seemingly early-summer season that lasted just before the first day of spring on March 20.

'The intensity and scope of the heat wave is clearly visible in this map of land surface temperature anomalies,' NASA's Earth Observatory wrote with their map of the region. It showcases a dramatically bruised Midwest, whose red pinpoints the highest land surface temperatures felt throughout the region. The report continues: 'Records are not only being broken across the country, they're being broken in unusual ways.' Chicago saw temperatures above 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.6C) for five straight days between March 14-18, shattering the city's previous records on each day.

In Rochester, Minnesota - which last year saw temperatures in the 20s - they set a new overnight high of 62F (16.6C) on March 18. That record broke the previous overnight high of 60F set the same day. According to WunderGround co-founder Dr Jeffrey Masters writing for his site: 'since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many temperature records broken for spring warmth in a one-week period.' Dr Masters further notes Pellston, Michigan - usually known as 'Michigan's Icebox' - as having set five consecutive record daily highs for the month of March.

On March 21 the city set a high of 85F, breaking their previous record of 53F in 2007. Dr Masters noted that it was 'an absurd 48F above average.' North in Canada's St John, New Brunswick, their all-time April high of 73F (22.8C) has already been smashed by this March's record-breaking high of 78F (25.4C) - which outdid March's former record of 63.5F. It's still days early before 2012's April can be compared, while scattered guesses are made on what the official summer days across North America will hold.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1qIYlyzoQ

[cheeky_monkey]

Its strange this being a La Nina winter yet it has been incredibly mild all winter..i was under the impression esp for Western Canada La Nina almost was a guarantee of a cold winter..so what happened???

[Methuselah]

Its strange this being a La Nina winter yet it has been incredibly mild all winter..i was under the impression esp for Western Canada La Nina almost was a guarantee of a cold winter..so what happened???

There must be more to our weather than the state of the ENSO??

[cheeky_monkey]

There must be more to our weather than the state of the ENSO??

Well something..all the long range forecast for the winter back in October were for a very cold if not frigid winter for the prairies!

[glosteroldboy]

Well something..all the long range forecast for the winter back in October were for a very cold if not frigid winter for the prairies!

How accurate are long range forecasts though?

I would say here has been below average for snowfall though still somewhere between 2-3 metres, the average around 3.6m so down on that and well below a bad winter (6-7m), up to early Feb we were doing quite well for snow but only I think one storm since early Feb and minor accumulations. Temperature wise the maxs probably around average, the lows above average. So overall be seen as a good winter here though wouldn't say it would be classed as that mild or above average as in some parts of Canada. And we're still not clear of snow yet, white Easter possibly.

Edited March 28, 2012 by glosteroldboy

[cheeky_monkey]

How accurate are long range forecasts though?

well winter 2010-11 the long range forecast for my area was bang on..they predicted a colder and very snowy winter..and it was exactly that

[Coopsy]

yeah this year was the furtherst from the farmers almanac - predicting the coldest winter in 20 yrs and its been one of the warmest on record. I know the jet stream was a lot further south than originally predicted but why I dont know

[glosteroldboy]

well winter 2010-11 the long range forecast for my area was bang on..they predicted a colder and very snowy winter..and it was exactly that

Yes fair enough sometimes they get it right, sometimes wrong, how accurate overall are they, we all know even beyond a few days the weather can be pretty unpredictable.

Think March is going to go out like a lion here (it certainly came in like a lamb), warning for 20-30cm snow for tonight/tomorrow, that's if the forecasters are right, looks like a good storm track for snow here (no chance of rain).

Edited March 30, 2012 by glosteroldboy

[Methuselah]

How accurate are long range forecasts though?

I would say here has been below average for snowfall though still somewhere between 2-3 metres, the average around 3.6m so down on that and well below a bad winter (6-7m), up to early Feb we were doing quite well for snow but only I think one storm since early Feb and minor accumulations. Temperature wise the maxs probably around average, the lows above average. So overall be seen as a good winter here though wouldn't say it would be classed as that mild or above average as in some parts of Canada. And we're still not clear of snow yet, white Easter possibly.

Still not all that impressive IMO...But upcoming advances in computing-power will - I hope! - improve things substantially.

[cheeky_monkey]

Still not all that impressive IMO...But upcoming advances in computing-power will - I hope! - improve things substantially.

Being near the pacific i think here is much more influenced by El nino and La nina conditions than the Uk..so it is unusual to have an almost record breaking warm winter during a La Nina event here...so other factors must have been at work.

[Coopsy]

Being near the pacific i think here is much more influenced by El nino and La nina conditions than the Uk..so it is unusual to have an almost record breaking warm winter during a La Nina event here...so other factors must have been at work.

http://www.wxedge.co..._was_it_so_warm

The linked I posted above might help to answer that question

[Methuselah]

Cheers for that, CC.

[cheeky_monkey]

Seems like the big high pressure that sat of the pacific north west coast for much of autumn never really moved... i remember it was forecast to retrograde up to the bearing straights for the majority of the winter which would let the flood gates open for artic air to plunge south into wetsern and central Canada. Still im not complaining its been a great winter..hope it stays there so we get a hot summer???

[Coopsy]

Seems like the big high pressure that sat of the pacific north west coast for much of autumn never really moved... i remember it was forecast to retrograde up to the bearing straights for the majority of the winter which would let the flood gates open for artic air to plunge south into wetsern and central Canada. Still im not complaining its been a great winter..hope it stays there so we get a hot summer???

we just had a freak snowstorm which dumped an inch of snow in an hour - its stopped now and all melting as quite warm. Its been weird weather for a while here

[Roger J Smith]

I think the problem with the La Nina analogue approach was that this La Nina was distorted further west than usual, but in any case there was never the right set-up to move arctic air south, it stayed bottled up most of the time and only escaped in small and relatively short-lived bursts. The pattern looks more typical of La Nina now than it did in the winter.

Raining here now and cold enough just above my elevation for a change to snow overnight, then that is moving towards Alberta but may not be any colder in the Rockies than it is here given the shape of the flow.

This March has been very similar to 1945 although it ran out of steam a few days earlier and never managed to break the all-time records that were set in either 1945 or 1946. Averages may turn out similar or a bit higher in some cases but that's more due to urban heat island expansion than climate change. Looking at the daily highs, I still find March 1945 more impressive than this year. For example, record highs for the 29th were 30 C in both NYC and BOS (in 1945). This year topped off around 28 C on different dates.

[glosteroldboy]

Looks more like mid winter here this morning following yesterdays storm, freezing and forecasters spot on this time, 31cm recorded in st johns. Biggest single fall all season, the previous being 30cm in November, neither huge amounts by Newfoundland standards but shows how lacking the proper winter months were lacking.

[Coopsy]

Roger - If you are reading this I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the set up for southern Alberta for Wednesday. Right now we have the weather network forecasting 20-30cm's of snow and environment canada going with rain. Two totally different forecasts so not sure who is going to be right. Any ideas?

[Roger J Smith]

Funny thing, I dropped in here to see what you were saying about this snowstorm potential -- can see why there are two different forecasts because it will be very close to zero C during the event. Some sort of compromise might work out, but for a hunch at the moment I would say heavy wet snow in both Calgary and Canmore, and 30 cms seems plausible, perhaps more. Will update during the day -- this could go either way, not a lot of cold air around but your elevation is of course the big factor.

Another storm heading for the east coast but this one will probably be mostly rain, not that mild but enough of an east wind to bring temps up to 3-5 C.

The big warm spell is probably over now and the warmth is being confined to the southern plains states where some very heavy rains are likely to develop next 2-3 days as well as a few tornadic storms in Texas.

[glosteroldboy]

Roger - If you are reading this I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the set up for southern Alberta for Wednesday. Right now we have the weather network forecasting 20-30cm's of snow and environment canada going with rain. Two totally different forecasts so not sure who is going to be right. Any ideas?

The Weather Network are prepared to call amounts and the type of precip several days out, Enviro Canada seem to play it safe and just go with things like "rain or snow" or "periods of snow" and wont go with amounts until the day before, which they have put up now in their forecast and they seem to be going with a rain to snow event around 5-10 of each. TWN still going with snow 15-20 so still some disagreement but maybe the latest model runs have toned down the precipitation amount a bit.

Not sure whos more accurate, they both get things right and wrong, when they both agree it's pretty much nailed on.EC seem to forecast the marginal situations pretty well though I think is always difficult call amounts and the exact period of changeover in these situations.

We have something pretty simular tonight/tomorrow, EC got a freezing rain warning out, TWN seem to going with all normal rain. A fair bit of the weekends snowstorm has melted even though has remained around or below freezing, shows how strong the sun is getting now.

[Coopsy]

My hunch tells me its going to be too warm for a settling snow event although it will probably be wet snow. Its a gloriously sunny day today and already about 6oC so double digits expected no doubt, which will warm the ground up so even if it is heavy wet snow it might struggle to settle.

I guess we will have to wait but I have to drive to the airport to pick up family tomorrow so fingers crossed its not too bad.

[glosteroldboy]

My hunch tells me its going to be too warm for a settling snow event although it will probably be wet snow. Its a gloriously sunny day today and already about 6oC so double digits expected no doubt, which will warm the ground up so even if it is heavy wet snow it might struggle to settle.

I guess we will have to wait but I have to drive to the airport to pick up family tomorrow so fingers crossed its not too bad.

I'd have thought EC would put a warning up soon if it's looking bad but often is the case it's hard to know for sure until a few hours before what will happen.

Last week here from early on in the week TWN had has consistently down for a sizeable amount of snow happening Friday night/Saturday, EC weren't really mentioning anything in their forecasts....then about 24 hours before TWN basically dropped it and just had something like 2-4cm. Then when I woke up the next morning EC had posted snowfall warnings 20-30cm and TWN were back on board going 15-20cm, that afternoon a few hours before the storm it was all upgraded again to 35cm, as it happened we got 31cm so some good calls. Is there much human input into TWN forecasts on their website, it was strange they dropped it the night before as they'd been right all week, I've noticed this has happened a few times this winter with TWN where they pick up on a storm well in advance, drop it then end up being right in the first place.

Edited April 3, 2012 by glosteroldboy

[Coopsy]

I'd have thought EC would put a warning up soon if it's looking bad but often is the case it's hard to know for sure until a few hours before what will happen.

Last week here from early on in the week TWN had has consistently down for a sizeable amount of snow happening Friday night/Saturday, EC weren't really mentioning anything in their forecasts....then about 24 hours before TWN basically dropped it and just had something like 2-4cm. Then when I woke up the next morning EC had posted snowfall warnings 20-30cm and TWN were back on board going 15-20cm, that afternoon a few hours before the storm it was all upgraded again to 35cm, as it happened we got 31cm so some good calls. Is there much human input into TWN forecasts on their website, it was strange they dropped it the night before as they'd been right all week, I've noticed this has happened a few times this winter with TWN where they pick up on a storm well in advance, drop it then end up being right in the first place.

Its funny you say that as I have also experienced it where TWN calls it 3 days out then downgrades it then upgrade it along with EC. As I know from experience its so marginal it could be 1 foot of snow or more or it could just be rain. This is what I love about the weather the most tbh

[glosteroldboy]

Its funny you say that as I have also experienced it where TWN calls it 3 days out then downgrades it then upgrade it along with EC. As I know from experience its so marginal it could be 1 foot of snow or more or it could just be rain. This is what I love about the weather the most tbh

Hard job being a forecaster at times like this. Not sure if to expect much freezing rain or not tonight, the updated evening forecasts should shed a bit more light for both our regions.

Edited April 3, 2012 by glosteroldboy