North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[Roger J Smith]

Currently -53 C at Mayo in the Yukon, that would be -63 F so, about as cold as it gets at that location. Another shot of bitter cold moving south this weekend, should arrive over the Great Lakes in two stages but Sunday looking extremely cold for the northeast U.S., could be sub-zero on the Fahrenheit scale and near -20 C. Locally heavy squalls on Saturday as the first set of fronts arrives. We are slowly warming up here after the storm track shifted a bit to the north this week, right now that very cold air is stalled around central B.C. and not moving our way, but spilling southeast into the prairies.

[Yozzer]

Maybe he's right for Northern New England, but he's looking wrong for PA, much of the East Coast and Midwest. The trend iis fairly mild after a shot of Arctic air this weekend. Incidentally, 150 miles makes a big difference this year; New York City is still stuck on about 3 inches of measurable snowfall this winter. The figure may increase by a bit this weekend as a clipper moves through, but not by much. Further north in Albany though, they have been buried a few times.

Hi WF,

Check out Accuweather and Brett Anderson's look at the LR euro model for N America. Looks like you could get your winter started properly in a week or two's time as the jet stream moves further south.

[Coopsy]

Temp dipping here in southern Alberta, from minus 2oC at midnight to minus 15oC at 1pm this afternoon. Also in the midst of a classic snowstorm. Been snowing for 5 hours now at a rate of about 1 inch/2.5 cm's per hour.

[Coopsy]

Here's a pic taken last week from a guy in Yellowknife

[Roger J Smith]

If you know anyone heading for Toronto, tell them to pack some extra sweaters. The current obs at 4 pm local time,

-14 C, winds W 31 mph gusting to 42 mph.

Even colder as you go further west, generally near -20 C in Michigan and -25 to -30 in Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as northwest ON and Manitoba. Another cold slug is coming from further north too.

Debs, if you read this, a rather disorganized storm is developing over Maine and Quebec, drifting southeast so you will stay in sub-freezing air, some snow at times probably 10-15 cms in total through tomorrow, then some of this cold air reaches you although not quite this cold, probably about -12 to -15 C.

Looks like NYC has been spared the bitter cold so far although the arctic air is mixing in, very low dew points but temps set to plunge overnight to about -7 C from current levels around 5 C.

Meanwhile it has finally turned a bit milder on the west coast here, the snow has melted and it's about 8 C in Vancouver, a very pleasant 15-20 C in California as you may see if you're watching the golf from Pebble Beach.

[WhiteFox]

The cold air arrived in NYC in the form of a squall line yesterday. Temperature went from about 4oC to about -2oC with heavy snow for about twenty minutes. I'm up in Albany now where I'll get the chance to watch the storm come in on Tuesday evening into Wednesday; could be about 5-7 inches on this one.

As for next week, I'll reserve judgement for New York; the pattern's been wrong for the whole winter so far and every storm has tracked too far west for anything in the city. La Nina's do tend to produce cool springs though, but that is no good!

Incidentally, the current temperature in International Falls, MN is -38oF (-39oC). It's not known as the nation's icebox for nothing!

Edited February 11, 2008 by WhiteFox

[stewfox]

Current mins in USA (11/2/2008)

I see min of -37f in Minesota and 69f Miami

Thats 106f of change

If you drive what 1200 miles North ?

Is that a record ?

what is the record for biggest variation in a day for USA

[debs]

Hi

Well as you said Roger, the snow came here overnight, woke up to about 7 inches of lying snow, still snowing now but only slightly. Its -8 outside and the wind is whipping up some snow. Wind chill at -17. Theres supposed to be a winter storm heading our way Wednesday, can anyone confirm this as I still sadly do not have a TV?

I love that picture you posted Canadiancoops, it shows just how cold -39 is......brrrrrrrrr

TTFN

Debs

Edited February 11, 2008 by debs

[Coopsy]

Well we didnt quite make it to 100 days of continual sub zero temps. On saturday air temps were a chilling minus 26oC, within 24 horus, the day time high on Sunday was plus 5oC...it was truly amazing. the first time since Nov 3rd that temps rose above freezing. It felt like spring lol

[Roger J Smith]

Debs, the storm for late Wednesday into Thursday is looking like a mess for your region. It should start with 10-15 cms of snow, then change to sleet and freezing rain. You could reach a high of about 1-2 C and have a period of rain but then it could turn back to sleet and snow before ending Thursday. Same applies to Albany except I don't think the surface will warm to 0 C there, so snow turning to sleet and freezing rain, ending with more snow.

Looks like another severe weather outbreak with the following event which will be moving into the central states around Thursday. The only thing severe around here is the fog, but the major highway linking the coast with the B.C. interior has been closed for three days now by avalanches and the difficulty crews are having in performing the usual avalanche control which lets them know there won't be worse avalanches unexpectedly. So the traffic is going the long way round from Hope to Kamloops, then there are frequent closures on the Trans-Canada between Revelstoke and Banff in the usual spots as well.

[Yozzer]

Hi

Well as you said Roger, the snow came here overnight, woke up to about 7 inches of lying snow, still snowing now but only slightly. Its -8 outside and the wind is whipping up some snow. Wind chill at -17. Theres supposed to be a winter storm heading our way Wednesday, can anyone confirm this as I still sadly do not have a TV?

I love that picture you posted Canadiancoops, it shows just how cold -39 is......brrrrrrrrr

TTFN

Debs

Not sure of your location in NB, but Brett Anderson has posted some estimates of what you can expect from this storm, obviously depending on its exact track. There is considerable doubt on this, as 50 miles east or west could make a huge difference.

Fredericton, NB....10-15 cm of snow Wed, then possible sleet or freezing rain Wednesday evening.

Saint John, NB.....10-15 cm of mod/hvy snow early Wed, then sleet Wed afternoon followed by ice or rain by eve.

Moncton, NB....10-15 cm of snow followed by sleet Wed aft. then ice and rain by eve.

Yarmouth, NS....3-8 cm of snow early Wed. morning then sleet and then rain by afternoon

[WhiteFox]

Debs, the storm for late Wednesday into Thursday is looking like a mess for your region. It should start with 10-15 cms of snow, then change to sleet and freezing rain. You could reach a high of about 1-2 C and have a period of rain but then it could turn back to sleet and snow before ending Thursday. Same applies to Albany except I don't think the surface will warm to 0 C there, so snow turning to sleet and freezing rain, ending with more snow.

Albany tends to do quite well out of these events so that sounds about right. Far enough way from the coast to prevent any warmer air coming in form the ocean, but close enough to benefit from the moisture. It usually annoys me seeing rain in New York City with the snow line about fifty miles north!

Anyway, NWS currently calling for 4-8 inches depending on when changeover to sleet and freezing rain takes place. The Albany area and just North and West look to be picking up some of the higher amounts of PPN.

Current mins in USA (11/2/2008)

I see min of -37f in Minesota and 69f Miami

Thats 106f of change

If you drive what 1200 miles North ?

Is that a record ?

what is the record for biggest variation in a day for USA

Miami to Northern Minnesota is 2000 miles!

For records, Browning, MT saw the temperature fall from 44oF (7oC) to -56oF (-49oC) in a 24 hour period; the difference between a warm chinook wind and a strong Arctic outbreak!

Chicken, Alaska saw a minimum of -69oF on Saturday night (-56oC).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

These arctic outbreaks have some heads scratching over here. With the record ice loss last year some thought this sort of cold couldn't be achieved. I'm not surprised and I think this is likely to increase in the coming decade or so. Stunning temps...what a continent!

BFTP

[Coast]

For records, Browning, MT saw the temperature fall from 44oF (7oC) to -56oF (-49oC) in a 24 hour period; the difference between a warm chinook wind and a strong Arctic outbreak!

And at Rapid City, South Dakota (at the center of the US, equidistant from both coasts) on 10 January 1911, the temperature fell from 12.8 °C at 0700 to –13.3 °C at 0715. Also at Rapid City, South Dakota on 22 January 1943, the temperature rose from –20 °C at 0732 to 7.2 °C two minutes later. aagain caused by warm Chinook winds.

I dont think I fancy living in Rapid City, South Dakota

[jemtom]

As a inhabitant of coastal Cornwall it's impossible to get my head around those staggering temperature changes across such small timeframes.

10c down to 5c across a 3 or 4hr period is about as extreme as it gets round these parts, pathetic really.... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Edited February 12, 2008 by jemtom

[WhiteFox]

These arctic outbreaks have some heads scratching over here. With the record ice loss last year some thought this sort of cold couldn't be achieved. I'm not surprised and I think this is likely to increase in the coming decade or so. Stunning temps...what a continent!

BFTP

It is pretty amazing. I couldn't live in the High Plains/Upper Midwest. It can't be good for you to experience such extremes.

As for the temps, they will always happen. Given that we have a large, flat, snow-covered area to the north which receives next to no sunlight for a long period, it only takes a kink in the jetstream to send the temperatures flooding south. The amount of ice won't really influence the overall temperatures too much. It may not get as cold for as long as it used to, but the patterns across the middle of the continent are pretty much the same as they have always been.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And at Rapid City, South Dakota (at the center of the US, equidistant from both coasts) on 10 January 1911, the temperature fell from 12.8 °C at 0700 to –13.3 °C at 0715. Also at Rapid City, South Dakota on 22 January 1943, the temperature rose from –20 °C at 0732 to 7.2 °C two minutes later. aagain caused by warm Chinook winds.

I dont think I fancy living in Rapid City, South Dakota

I remember back in 1982 learning about the Chinook winds in my 'O' Level geography lessons...the one subject I could get away without swatting for as it was my favourite and I really paid attention to in class. Known as the Foehn affect in Europe but for me Chinook is what I always refer to on that type of phenomena as it was so staggering. I remember learning that a change of 28C was not uncommon...absolutely fascinating and one day I would love to experience that.

BFTP

Edited February 12, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[debs]

I remember back in 1982 learning about the Chinook winds in my 'O' Level geography lessons...the one subject I could get away without swatting for as it was my favourite and I really paid attention to in class. Known as the Foehn affect in Europe but for me Chinook is what I always refer to on that type of phenomena as it was so staggering. I remember learning that a change of 28C was not uncommon...absolutely fascinating and one day I would love to experience that.

BFTP

Wow Blast you certainly live upto your name....O Levels indeed, that certainly is a blast from the past.......lol. That puts you in my age bracket.....!!!!!! shhhhhhhhhhh. Also if you want to experience the temps just come on over, lots of paper work but well worth the effort.

Roger thanks for the information. Im looking after a friends farm this week so I guess I'll keep the horses in tomorrow.

Yozzer, I am about 30km east of Saint John. Moved here last year and loving the snow.

Hopefully no power cuts tomorrow, will let you know how the storm went.

TTFN

Debs

Edited February 12, 2008 by debs

[Coopsy]

I ahve been fortunate enough to see the temp on my thermometer go from plus 10oC to minus 2oC in the space of less than an hour. Quite remarkable to see

[Yozzer]

Temperature at Whitefield NH (just up the road from my place) fell to -30C last night! Storm approaching from the Ohio valley looks like it will pull in quite a bit of moisture and warming which will overrun this very cold air producing fairly significant falls of snow, up to a foot. What concerns me most though, as an absentee, is the potential for this to change over to a period of freezing rain with the risk of downed power lines etc.

[tinybill]

http://rochesterweather.myserver.org/webcam/WebCam.htm

been looking at rochester cam or trying !! is the weather so bad and the snow above the windows!!!!!!!!!!

plus its snowing in new york!!!!!!!!!

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timess...;cam_type=large

Edited February 12, 2008 by tinybill

[WhiteFox]

Looks like the current storm is not so progressive as first forecast. This has two effects:

1. The warmer air has longer to advect northwards. This is now expected to lead to a changeover to sleet/freezing rain/normal rain as far north as Albany by tomorrow afternoon.

2. Coastal redevelopment with low pressure moving towards Cape Cod by tomorrow afternoon. Interesting comment form the local NWS office on this feature:

NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE DRIVEN BY COASTAL LOW THAT WILL TAKE

SHAPE OVER THE DELMARVA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACK TO CAPE COD

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ORDINARILY...THIS TRACK WOULD PUT US IN PLAY FOR SOME

RESPECTABLE SNOW...BUT NOT THIS SEASON. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTH

AHEAD OF THE LOW AND BRING OUR BOUT OF MIXED PRECIP AND RAIN.

So, it may be snowing in NYC right now (about an inch or so) but this will turn to rain pretty soon. This will be followed by up to two inches of rain tomorrow. Less rain than this in Albany, but still expecting some freezing rain, with plain rain by the afternoon followed by a re-freezing once the system clears. Tomorrow night will be treacherous.

Yozzer - Current upper air forecasts calling for above zero 850 readings all the way up to Northern New Hampshire by tomorrow evening. Vermont fares somewhat better, although the south is in above zero air. There looks to be a fair bit of ppn still to fall by this time, so southern New Hampshire could see a bit of freezing rain, with more sleet falling the further north you go. The air has been very cold so it will take some shifting from the lower levels. Northern Vermont is probably looking at all snow or snow to sleet mix.

[megforcer]

You guys and gals would sure love the winter i am having here in Madison, Wisconsin. We broke the yearly snow record last monday, wich was 76.1''. Now we are at 80.2'' and expecting 6-12'' on sunday. We very well could end up with 105''+ at seasons end, wich ends in may. It is also 18c right now and I am expecting to reach 28c tonight.

[Yozzer]

You guys and gals would sure love the winter i am having here in Madison, Wisconsin. We broke the yearly snow record last monday, wich was 76.1''. Now we are at 80.2'' and expecting 6-12'' on sunday. We very well could end up with 105''+ at seasons end, wich ends in may. It is also 18c right now and I am expecting to reach 28c tonight.

Station down the road from Dalton here in NH has recorded 81" so far this season just 3" short of entire total last season, despite a very dry January.

Feb/Mar usually bring greatest chance of big storms in New England (Valentines day storm last year dumped 2 feet!), so that total will be shattered.

Storm this weekend will bring mostly rain even to northern New England as warm moist air is drawn up from way south/east, so we might have to wait a few days before we reach last year's total.

As you say, the storm will give blizzard conditions in your neck of the woods so take care on the roads!

[Roger J Smith]

Sunday into Monday, very mild air makes a brief visit to eastern Great Lakes and northeast US, then Maritimes with temps rising to 8-12 C but this quite short-lived as another shot of very cold air heads south, soon reaching Wisconsin after the Sunday snowfall as advertised, then a second storm develops on a more southerly track and brings risk of heavy snow to parts of the northeast U.S. by Tuesday night. This may vary in forecasts until closer to the time, looks to me like potential for 5-8 inches even in NYC although slightly inland favoured for heaviest amounts.

I'm sure the other thread will become very active as the storm for late this weekend takes shape with widespread severe storms developing later today in TX and moving to LA, then on Sunday could be quite severe in MS-AL and northward towards OH.