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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Florida is surrounded by long fetch water on three sides, however, it continental parts to the North breach 40 degrees. Tallahassee as reached 43 degrees.

    I just can’t see 40c ever being achieved in the UK.

    For it to happen, you would need a super plume, I.e a full blown African plume of 25c uppers minimum ideally between Mid July and Mid August. Not only that, the timing of peak uppers would need to fall right in the middle of the afternoon, not superseded by flash cloudcover or a change of wind direction from a more maritime direction. The Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk fens or Heathrow/Northolt Area on a SSE surface flow would be the places that likely crack it. In my opinion, easily a once in perhaps a millennium event. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    Florida is surrounded by long fetch water on three sides, however, it continental parts to the North breach 40 degrees. Tallahassee as reached 43 degrees.

     

    1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    I just can’t see 40c ever being achieved in the UK.

    For it to happen, you would need a super plume, I.e a full blown African plume of 25c uppers minimum ideally between Mid July and Mid August. Not only that, the timing of peak uppers would need to fall right in the middle of the afternoon, not superseded by flash cloudcover or a change of wind direction from a more maritime direction. The Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk fens or Heathrow/Northolt Area on a SSE surface flow would be the places that likely crack it. In my opinion, easily a once in perhaps a millennium event. 

    There was quite a comprehensive paper written about this last year. General consensus is when, not if, it’ll happen...

    41467_2020_16834_Fig1_HTML.png
    WWW.NATURE.COM

    The United Kingdom has experienced a strong heat wave in 2019 that set a new temperature record for the country of 38.7 °C. In this study the authors show that under climate change, local...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1190m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1190m asl)

    We're on it for a record today, 27C at 9am. We'll almost certainly beat the date record for today for Calgary and I reckon we can beat our local all time record of 36.5C, we have less than 10 degrees to gain during the day...

    1392625079_Screenshot_20210629-091251_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.3ab406a7a989523a6025f0bb9c69d800.jpg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    4 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    I just can’t see 40c ever being achieved in the UK.

    For it to happen, you would need a super plume, I.e a full blown African plume of 25c uppers minimum ideally between Mid July and Mid August. Not only that, the timing of peak uppers would need to fall right in the middle of the afternoon, not superseded by flash cloudcover or a change of wind direction from a more maritime direction. The Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk fens or Heathrow/Northolt Area on a SSE surface flow would be the places that likely crack it. In my opinion, easily a once in perhaps a millennium event. 

    Really? Cambridgeshire got to 39C in July 2019 and Heathrow may have snuck over 40C on the same day if cloud cover hadn't developed in the afternoon. It only takes one day of heat to get 37C... look at July 1st 2015 and July 31st 2020 for example.

    A few hot days preceding that followed by large and intense plume from the south could easily see temperatures topple 40C. Indeed model output for July 2015, August 2018 and July 2020 showed temperatures over 40C at times from the Atlantic holding on that little bit longer. They didn't come off but one day in the future it will and that may be close..

    June 2019 could have done it as well if we hadn't have had the cool surface winds off the North Sea when we had those record breaking uppers, the same uppers that delivered record highs in France.... in June!

    and as for ANYWEATHERs comment about the US getting cooler....

    image.thumb.png.a5f42df31245696469efe8fddae368be.png

    The observations don't suggest that...

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Into day four of record breaking heat in BC, as well as most of WA, OR states, parts of ID. Locally it has been 40 to 42 C each day since Saturday, heading for that again now (1100h local time, 38 C). Lytton BC has broken the all-time Canadian (and BC) records twice already, the second time yesterday reaching 47.9 C -- before its first record the Canadian high was 45 C (July 1937 in SK) and the BC high was 44.4 C (112 F as recorded) at the same location in July 1941. 

    We are under a heat dome of about 598 dm with thickness contours as high as 594 dm. Clear skies and very little breeze so far, the heat dome has moved inland from a coastal position on Saturday to northern Idaho this morning. Some relief is predicted here by Friday although temperatures will only fall back to slightly above normal low 30s. 

    Before this set in, we had been in a more regular heat wave for about a week so it has been over ten days of heat now. 

    Both Seattle (108F) and Portland (115F) have set new all-time highs, Vancouver's airport so far has been tempered by sea breezes and has been below the 2009 high of 35 C each day, although most of the city has probably been 38-41 C. 

    Although we are used to summer heat waves in southern BC, this is both extreme and unusually early, this climate normally does not shift to full summer mode until mid-July, and almost all the top ten temperatures for most locations before this spell were in late July and August. 

    The fear is that the heat will break with dry lightning thunderstorms and forest fires will erupt. So far only a few minor and easily controlled wild fires in the region (the worst of them in north central WA, we are getting a bit of smoke haze from that today here). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Current 500 mb analysis from Environment Canada (12z) ...

    sai_100.gif

    (this link may update later, will see what happens and try to make this or the next capture permanent for the thread)

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Really? Cambridgeshire got to 39C in July 2019 and Heathrow may have snuck over 40C on the same day if cloud cover hadn't developed in the afternoon. It only takes one day of heat to get 37C... look at July 1st 2015 and July 31st 2020 for example.

    A few hot days preceding that followed by large and intense plume from the south could easily see temperatures topple 40C. Indeed model output for July 2015, August 2018 and July 2020 showed temperatures over 40C at times from the Atlantic holding on that little bit longer. They didn't come off but one day in the future it will and that may be close..

    June 2019 could have done it as well if we hadn't have had the cool surface winds off the North Sea when we had those record breaking uppers, the same uppers that delivered record highs in France.... in June!

    and as for ANYWEATHERs comment about the US getting cooler....

    image.thumb.png.a5f42df31245696469efe8fddae368be.png

    The observations don't suggest that...

    We will see. It took another 16 years from August 2003 for 38c to be bettered however. Uppers of 23c or above are very rare for this island. There’s so much that would work against us making that 40c mark, in terms of relative humidity, and being tempered by maritime influence. The near continent sees 40c more often as they have maximum heating available, no sea breezes and lower humidity, but even that is rare for them too. I think July 2019 may even be the first time that Belgium and the Netherlands saw 40c. It will not be easy, that’s all I’m saying! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    I’ll put my house on it being another 38oC day by 4pm....and probably again tomorrow...unbelievable sustained heat. 

    102BC1D2-9E53-4127-AF97-FE337442E04B.thumb.jpeg.a4bffaabd900743c52cd9f0a7248d077.jpeg

    Edited by Coopsy
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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    We will see. It took another 16 years from August 2003 for 38c to be bettered however. Uppers of 23c or above are very rare for this island. There’s so much that would work against us making that 40c mark, in terms of relative humidity, and being tempered by maritime influence. The near continent sees 40c more often as they have maximum heating available, no sea breezes and lower humidity, but even that is rare for them too. I think July 2019 may even be the first time that Belgium and the Netherlands saw 40c. It will not be easy, that’s all I’m saying! 

    I think that's fair enough! It is like threading through the eye of a needle.

    I hope it doesn't happen but I think the potential is definitely there now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    It's about time this record after nearly 90 years dropped.  I wonder  how high the temperature got in the late 1800s ..Record breaking heat and cold is irrelevant, over population is the problem...there is too many of us ...affected by Weather. ?..

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    1 hour ago, Coopsy said:

    I’ll put my house on it being another 38oC day by 4pm....and probably again tomorrow...unbelievable sustained heat. 

    102BC1D2-9E53-4127-AF97-FE337442E04B.thumb.jpeg.a4bffaabd900743c52cd9f0a7248d077.jpeg

    reached 42c yesterday on site in Prince George..currently its 39c

    temps.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1190m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1190m asl)

    0.4C to go for the all-time record for here, in the meantime it is a gorgeous day if you can keep cool:

    574916505_Screenshot_20210629-161248_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.6d4b406927118e4a2ee4dfd864ad9d82.jpg20210629_103753.thumb.jpg.465e7a2e3545840b8ad9c53b0a51f7a4.jpg20210629_103426.thumb.jpg.a7f59c2f133c9d1185fb7457706ec058.jpg20210629_104014.thumb.jpg.6a74f4ede9164947e7a182dc5a79d90e.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    7 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    reached 42c yesterday on site in Prince George..currently its 39c

    temps.jpg

    Wasn’t the record 39oC? if so, you’ve smashed that. Another record breaking day in Canmore. 🥵
     

    Edited by Coopsy
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Another amazing fact of the incredible temps of 120f recorded in Lytton BC is that it is the furthest North ever recorded for that value ( 50 N LAT). Heat warning now in effect for the Canadian Arctic Region.

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Amazing temps in BC. My cousin posted this image from her home in Oooyoos yesterday.

    C

    210835512_10159000478400236_2525109719558989546_n.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    Very alarming to see all those records shattered and of course there is loss of life associated with the extreme heat! According to bbc news there have been 130 sudden deaths since Friday 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    This heatwave is truly amazing.

    Lytton BC has broken the all time Canadian record three days in a row. The latest temp a mind blowing 49.6oC! At 50oN! 

    That’s 4.1oC more than the previous Canadian record that stood for over 80 years. 

    To put that into perspective that’s nearly 2.5oC hotter than the all time temperature record for Las Vegas (47.2oC).

    It’s also hotter than any country in Europe have ever recorded. Or South America for that matter. 

    Over 100 locations have broken their all time temperature records across western Canada. 

    Other locations have recorded temperatures higher than the previous Canada record of 45.5oC in the last few days. 

    Cache Creek (46.4oC), Lillooet (45.6oC) and Kamloops (45.8oC) all surpassed the old record.

    Quite remarkable. 

     

    Edited by Coopsy
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    8 hours ago, Coopsy said:

    Wasn’t the record 39oC? if so, you’ve smashed that. Another record breaking day in Canmore. 🥵
     

    that's our weather station on site which is downtown so not official... the PG weather station is at the airport which is in a very rural location about 5 miles out of town..there it only recorded 37.9c which is 1c below the record..the Edmonton record did not go yesterday either got to 36.2c.. forecast is 37c today and tomorrow which would still be short of the all time high 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    On 29/06/2021 at 12:51, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    I just can’t see 40c ever being achieved in the UK.

    For it to happen, you would need a super plume, I.e a full blown African plume of 25c uppers minimum ideally between Mid July and Mid August. Not only that, the timing of peak uppers would need to fall right in the middle of the afternoon, not superseded by flash cloudcover or a change of wind direction from a more maritime direction. The Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk fens or Heathrow/Northolt Area on a SSE surface flow would be the places that likely crack it. In my opinion, easily a once in perhaps a millennium event. 

    I think 40C could well be reached one day but western Europe probably need to be in some sort of drought to help to build enough heat that it can cross the channel without too much modification. 

    That said in 50 years time, who knows just how high the global temperatures will get, if its like how some people are predicting then it does seem to be its a matter of when rather than if. 

    Meanwhile the heat over Canada is just incredible. There's going to be the question of why the heat that built under the blocking high got so intense, surely the drought conditions over there are playing a part which of course is all linked to climate change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

    I think 40C could well be reached one day but western Europe probably need to be in some sort of drought to help to build enough heat that it can cross the channel without too much modification. 

    That said in 50 years time, who knows just how high the global temperatures will get, if its like how some people are predicting then it does seem to be its a matter of when rather than if. 

    Meanwhile the heat over Canada is just incredible. There's going to be the question of why the heat that built under the blocking high got so intense, surely the drought conditions over there are playing a part which of course is all linked to climate change. 

    A phenomenal state of affairs in British Columbia. Temps of near 50c hotter than any place in the world over the past 3 days. National records were not just broken by small decimal digits but by whopping whole degrees. No doubt their will lots written in meteorological journals regards the intensity of this heat, especially occurring at 50 N ( never recorded that far north before ) One theory relates to the  surge in the warm air mass from Hawaii  which traveled over ocean temps with a + anomaly of 5c, that in itself is in the extreme. The warm flow deflected and surpressed by the strong upper ridge over the NW States with a resultant strong Adiabatic heat process as the warm air descended and compressed over the Casades into lowland BC. Add that with sun at its highest point and records broken big style.

    C

     

     

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    You wouldn't think, geographically, with a vast cold ocean immediately to the west areas like British Columbia and California would see the levels of heat they do.

    California and Nevada have been in a prolonged drought for years - the level of Lake Mead at the Hoover Dam continues to fall.

    The synoptic set up triggering this heat episode has been well explored but once the HP recedes and declines east you're left with the large Pacific HP and in response shallow LP forms over the heat lands of the Rockies and while that make bring some refreshing N'ly breezes to coasts, it doesn't as the air dries over the mountains.

    It's also remarkable what's happening further north - Deline on Great Bear Lake is 65 deg north but it's forecast day maxima above 20c in the next few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    I think 40C could well be reached one day but western Europe probably need to be in some sort of drought to help to build enough heat that it can cross the channel without too much modification. 

    That said in 50 years time, who knows just how high the global temperatures will get, if its like how some people are predicting then it does seem to be its a matter of when rather than if. 

    Meanwhile the heat over Canada is just incredible. There's going to be the question of why the heat that built under the blocking high got so intense, surely the drought conditions over there are playing a part which of course is all linked to climate change. 

    there are no drought conditions in BC ..but there are south of the border..plus they had a record breaking heatwave further south a week 10 days ago..so there was plenty of heat to tap into added to that it was warm /hot in western Canada prior to the heat funneling north

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Lytton BC is a hot location all the time, so if some place was going to manage this, it would be there. What pushed them a bit higher on Tuesday was that a marine layer moved into the Fraser valley and this forced all the superheated air present down there up the Fraser canyon and into the slightly lower region around Lytton (the Fraser carves out a very narrow canyon so most of the air moving up has to go higher than Lytton to get there). 

    It is just as hot here today (our local high on Tuesday was 44 C) and then we get this very weak cold front setting off local storms by Thursday and Friday, just a very slight change in air mass back to the more normal heat we had last week before this super heat arrived. 

    The upper flow looks very similar to the previous record period (mid July 1941) so it's a case of adding on the effects of greenhouse gases, and with it being preceded by a week of heat somewhat longer than in 1941, the ground already heated up before the super hot period began (we had about seven days in the low to mid 30s before these four days in the 40s). The monthly anomaly at Spokane WA is now sitting at +8.3 (F deg) which is +4.6 C deg. On the 19th the anomaly was about half that, so it has shot up with daily departures of 25 F or so. After today it should end up near +9F (+5 C). I am sure most places in southern BC will have similar anomalies. The mean temperature at the closest weather station to me (Warfield) is now at 21.1 C and set to finish around 21.6. 

    Highs since 20th of June have been 30, 33, 35, 34, 32, 36, 40, 42, 43, 44. The first three days of June were also very hot (36, 37, 35). 

    The only difference between this and a Las Vegas heat wave is that it cools off at night to the low 20s, down there it stays close to 30 C overnight. I happened to be in Vegas in Aug 2011 when they approached their all-time record high (hitting 116 F) so I have that memory of their extreme heat. The sun is almost overhead down that way, and metal surfaces heat up to dangerous levels. We could use those water sprayers they have along the Strip in Vegas during the summer heat. 

    I had always wondered what it might be like to live through the famous 1936 heat wave so now I know. This is hotter than Toronto got (three days at 41 C) and even NYC only peaked at 41 C. The worst of the 1936 heat wave was in the Dakotas, Manitoba and Minnesota, readings of 44 to 50 C were recorded. A similar heat wave developed in 1937 but it didn't spread east as strongly, with more normal mid-90s to the east coast with that one (but similar brutal heat in the prairies and plains states). You have to wonder if that might happen again. This current heat dome is spreading well into the prairies and plains states now, but models show it becoming less organized once it tries to go much further east. 

    There are as mentioned heat warning in place as far north as Great Slave Lake but that is considered subarctic rather than arctic, the boundary is probably best described as the "tree line" and that runs south of Great Bear Lake into southern Nunavut and extreme northern Manitoba. Currently the extreme heat has pushed as far north as 61 deg N (35 C on the Alberta-NWT border at Fort Smith NWT) but more moderate around Great Slave Lake (28 C at Yellowknife), and 26 C at the remote automatic station at Ennadai Lake in southern Nunavut (only 11 C at Baker Lake). So I wouldn't be too concerned about an instant meltdown of Baffin Island or Greenland from this, it has a limit. 

    Nothing too extreme yet east of about Swift Current SK, Regina just 30 C and Pierre SD is 32 C (these fairly close to late June normal values). 

    The current model evolution for this heat wave shows it gradually morphing to less extreme heat over the central plains states as it's eventually replaced over western Canada by cooler air from the western arctic. This won't apply to southern BC where we remain under a remnant heat trough for another week to ten days after this extreme event fades out. No effects are likely from this over the eastern half of North America which is currently under a rather hot air mass also (unconnected to this one). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    For those questioning if the <2C leap to 40C is too much for the UK to manage, something to consider...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    17 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    For those questioning if the <2C leap to 40C is too much for the UK to manage, something to consider...

     

    what i find intersting or should i say confusing..is lots of places beat there previous heat records by big margins..like Grand Prairie..yet here in Prince George the record was never even close to falling highest temp was short by 1.1c yet its in the same general location as other places that smashed their previous records..not sure why this would be??

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