North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[WhiteFox]

And there's more:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE

DRIER WEATHER WILL BE COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE

SURFACE...AND RIDGING ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON

THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM

THE SOUTHERN STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS IS COULD BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT

STORM...WITH P-TYPE POSSIBLY BEING A CONCERN. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH

A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY

AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN

THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER...THERE WILL STILL BE THE THREAT OF

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

I liked the look of this pattern from the outset; not the coldest, but the best chance of coastal storms. JB's winter cancel nows looks very busted!

[Roger J Smith]

Looks a bit marginal temperature wise in NYC for snow, probably more inland suburbs than near the Atlantic, but 1-4 inches across the region perhaps (Monday) ... the Pacific low comes crashing ashore further north as WF was saying, brings some very strong winds to BC and Alberta, Montana on Monday into Tuesday, and eventually this contributes to quite a cold surge for central regions mid to late week. Arctic vortex is backing southwest into Hudson Bay through the period, and very strong arctic high pressure finally showing up as expected in the Yukon and Alaska. That may lead to a really frigid end to the month around western Canada, but for the time being it is rather mild and looks to stay that way west of Calgary at least.

Not a very dramatic late January pattern to be honest, this is the time of year when spectacular weather often develops and I would call most of this anemic to medium strength. Still, as JH says, it would more than do for the UK to get anything like what we're going to see here in the next week.

Everything happening over here fits with the idea of a rising jet for the eastern Atlantic, a strong Euro high, possibly near Bartlett, and persistent low pressure near Iceland. Sorry, but that's the deal, and it does not look like changing except towards a more intense version of the same thing, at least through the next two weeks. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif

[WhiteFox]

Looks a bit marginal temperature wise in NYC for snow, probably more inland suburbs than near the Atlantic, but 1-4 inches across the region perhaps (Monday)

Indeed it is very marginal and even at this range forecasters are in a tough spot. They are all still going for mostly snow for New York though with 5-8 inches forecast for Western Long Island and NYC with a foot or more just a bit further North over central/Northern CT. Still plenty of time for this to bust given that the exact track of the storm is absoultely crucial given the current temperatures being about 5-6oC.... Still, we're under a heavy snow warning here in NYC.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A CHALLENGING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18

HOURS OF THIS PERIOD...FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AFT. AN

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL

TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WHILE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES

INTERACT BETWEEN THE TWO POLAR BRANCHES...ALLOWING FOR SOME

PHASING OF THE ENERGY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. IT IS

THIS VERY INTERACTION THAT AIDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW

WHICH TRACKS FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS EVENING TO NEAR THE

BENCHMARK POSITION (40N...70W) MONDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY A

HUNDRED MILES SW OF MONTAUK POINT. AS DISCUSSED IN THE DAYS

LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT...THE SOURCE OF THE COLD AIR WAS LIMITED

WITH A WEAK...TRANSIENT POLAR HIGH. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA

REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM...WARM...MOIST ATLANTIC AIR

GETTING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM RAISED CONCERNS FOR RAIN MIXING IN

WITH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE LAST

FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME WARMING OF THE VERTICAL TEMP

PROFILE... WHICH 24 TO 36 HOURS WAS NOT SUGGESTED. THE MODELS HAVE

BEEN STEADFAST WITH THE LOW TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DEVIATIONS. THE

00Z GFS IS THE WARMEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...BUT HAS RAISED SOME

EYEBROWS AS IT CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NW SIDE OF ITS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE MODEL ENSEMBLE (GEM..NAM...ECMWF). THIS

WARMING IF INDEED TRUE..WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS PRIMARILY RAIN

EAST OF NYC...WITH SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THIS SOLUTION

THOUGH IS AN OUTLIER AND DISCOUNTED...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A

WEAKER LOW...TO THE RIGHT OF ITS TRACK. THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO

REPRESENT THIS SCENARIO BEST WITH SOME MIXING ACROSS EASTERN LONG

ISLAND AND SE CT...BUT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ELSEWHERE. THERE

ARE CONCERNS WITH THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AT THE START AND A

STRONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHTEST ADJUSTMENT TO

THE TRACK COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST DRASTICALLY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EVIDENCE OF A BANDED SNOW

EVENT...FROM NYC NORTHEAST INTO SW CT. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS

BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFT FOR DYNAMIC

COOLING WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A

FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SW CT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. IN FACT...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS NOT SO

WARM AT THE START OF THE EVENT...NYC WOULD HAVE THIS SAME

POTENTIAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF

EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...WILL LIKELY MEET WARNING CRITERIA.

THUS...HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS HAVE GONE UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA

WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND

AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY IN CT.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW QUICKLY FOR

THE INTERIOR...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR NYC...WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND

SW COASTAL CT...AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN LONG

ISLAND AND SE CT. SNOWFALL WILL BE THE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 06Z AND

12Z MON. SNOW GROWTH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THIS EVENT WITH

SATURATION AND VERY STRONG LIFT IN THE -10 TO -15 DEG C LAYER.

THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO

BE AROUND FREEZING DURING THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE

UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...HIGH RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER...AND A

SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES

BELOW NORMAL.

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING.. CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND NOONTIME WITH A TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

[debs]

Hiya,

The forecast for New Brunswick is for snow, particularly on the coast. Temps presently at -3 with a windchill of -8. Seems like it is going to get colder during the week. Tomorrow is forecast to be -9 with a windchill of -15. Not sure of the snow depths as yet but will let you know.

TTFN

Debs

[WhiteFox]

Many thanks WF I'm actually going to Summit which is about 20 miles west of Newark. I'll be spending most of the time indoors but have to go outside for a fag cigarette http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif so I'll pack some thermals.

Here's an early warning for you!

Currently the forecast high for New York City on the 20th is -7oC.... The forecast for Summit is -8oC. That'll feel like 1963 for you! If the storm on the Thursday into Friday delivers some snow inland, which is more likely for interior NJ than NYC, then you could be looking at temperatures even lower than that.

Up and down over the period:

850s of between -20 and -25oC will make it feel very cold!

For Chicago, 850s run between -25 and -30oC on Friday. The forecast high is -11oC on Friday. Ouch!

Just look at the cold air up in Canada by next Sunday:

Some perishingly cold temperatures on the way for parts of Canada and the Upper Midwest/High Plains.

Some example high temperatures:

For KW, Winnipeg (Fri 18th to Tues 22nd, current forecasts): -21 (-28oC overnight), -18, -17, -18, -19. Having said that, it is currently -22oC in Winnipeg at 1600 CST.

Minneapolis: -17, -17, -13, -12, -13 (-24oC Fri to Sat)

Chicago: -12, -12, -10, -4, -4 (including -17 Friday night into Saturday morning)

[Cookie]

just seen the forecast on fox news!

[Cookie]

I've got a good link here.

http://www.weather.gov/radar_tab.php

[Nick F]

DTrisk's 'last call' forecast for a snow storm over NE US for tomorrow, he's going for 12" over New England:

http://www.wxrisk.com/LASTCALL.jpg

[Cookie]

DTrisk's 'last call' forecast for a snow storm over NE US for tomorrow, he's going for 12" over New England:

http://www.wxrisk.com/LASTCALL.jpg

thanks for posting that image mate. 12" that's a heck of a lot of snowfall.

hopefully someone will be kind enough to post images up.

[WhiteFox]

thanks for posting that image mate. 12" that's a heck of a lot of snowfall.

hopefully someone will be kind enough to post images up.

Alas I'm in Chicago for this one. However, there are some excellent links here where you can track the storm. Most of the action takes place after midnight, but by the time you wake up there should be heavy snow falling across much of the North East.

[Cookie]

thanks for the link mate http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif

[WhiteFox]

Ouch! Now that is severe cold:

-40s over Hudson Bay, Canada:

That will deliver some extremely cold temperatures for parts of Canada. Quebec City is sitting on the -30 or below isotherm.

The 492Dm line skirting Northern New York state.

This translates to a daytime high of about -9 or -10oC in NYC next Sunday. Add in the North wind and I'll bet that it feels more like -25oC! The Monday is a public holiday for some of us lucky ones and I may just hire a car for the weekend and take a drive around...

[Cookie]

I don't really know much about the weather over the other side of the Atlantic but are those temperatures normal for this time of year?

[WhiteFox]

I don't really know much about the weather over the other side of the Atlantic but are those temperatures normal for this time of year?

Sub zero temperatures are obviously the norm for large parts of Canada, but the airmass shown in the charts is particularly cold and intense. The 492dm line pushing so far south is unusual. Take a look at the 2m temp chart for next Sunday (bear in mind that 18z translates to 1pm EST so close to the warmest part of the day):

Once the projected temperatures come out I'll take a look and compare them to average to illustrate.

[Cookie]

thanks yes looks very cold

[WhiteFox]

Looks a bit marginal temperature wise in NYC for snow, probably more inland suburbs than near the Atlantic, but 1-4 inches across the region perhaps (Monday)

The mets are trending your way Roger:

MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS

EVENING. PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS RAIN AS

EXPECTED...HOWEVER AM BEGINNING TO BECOME CONCERNED WITH SNOW

TOTALS ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NYC AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CT AS THE FLOW

REMAINS EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE

DROPPING VERY SLOWLY. IF WINDS DO NOT BECOME MORE NE/N AND TEMPS

DON`T FALL AS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAY HAVE TO

DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THINGS LOOK BETTER

INLAND WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

[Roger J Smith]

Strong cold fronts passing here this afternoon and evening, first of two already past, winds W 30-50 mph with higher gusts expected later, temps 5 C and dropping towards -2 C by morning.

BC interior and Alberta can expect a sudden drop in temperatures around midnight in BC and around 3-5 a.m. in Alberta, with the winds picking up from the W to NW, gusting very strong where topography aligns, local gusts to 60 mph in some valleys.

This is all part of the development of a deep trough in central regions later this week, that will allow the true arctic air to flow south again. Eastward progress somewhat limited, this pattern seems to be setting up as a quasi-stationary upper flow that could show slight retrograde tendencies later this month as another surge of arctic air sets up in Yukon to Alaska.

[Cookie]

was their as much snow as expected?

[WhiteFox]

was their as much snow as expected?

Pretty much no settling snow for New York City from what I can gather. The forecast completely bust for the city. Further North and West saw quite a bit though; up to a foot in some places.

I saw more snow in Chicago today (about half an inch) than I would have seen in New York!

[Cookie]

thanks mate so it was a bit hit and a bit miss.

Edited January 15, 2008 by cookie

[Roger J Smith]

Cookie, that low has now strengthened and is bringing 15-20 cms of snow to parts of New Brunswick and inland Nova Scotia.

Another weak low is following but is just producing light snow in the Great Lakes region now.

And the west coast low came screaming in over my head earlier (top gusts 57 mph) and temperatures have dropped to +1 C here, -5 C a few miles north of the city. Turning very windy now all across BC and Alberta as low pressure jumps the Rockies and sets up by morning in Saskatchewan, so the flow becomes strong NW to N rather quickly.

Although I earlier said it wasn't making much progress east, by Sunday or Monday some of this very cold air will perhaps interact with low pressure off New York to produce a snowstorm in the northeast, should make the NFL playoff game near Boston interesting to say the least. But cold air is also building over the northwestern parts of Canada, so the jet is being forced well south in almost all sectors here over the next five days.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cookie, that low has now strengthened and is bringing 15-20 cms of snow to parts of New Brunswick and inland Nova Scotia.

Another weak low is following but is just producing light snow in the Great Lakes region now.

And the west coast low came screaming in over my head earlier (top gusts 57 mph) and temperatures have dropped to +1 C here, -5 C a few miles north of the city. Turning very windy now all across BC and Alberta as low pressure jumps the Rockies and sets up by morning in Saskatchewan, so the flow becomes strong NW to N rather quickly.

Although I earlier said it wasn't making much progress east, by Sunday or Monday some of this very cold air will perhaps interact with low pressure off New York to produce a snowstorm in the northeast, should make the NFL playoff game near Boston interesting to say the least. But cold air is also building over the northwestern parts of Canada, so the jet is being forced well south in almost all sectors here over the next five days.

Where there is severe cold there must be severe warmth...the UK right?

BFTP

[mezzacyclone]

following on BFTP: I`ve always found the downstream for us in the UK fascinating in terms of the conditions over the pond,

but also somewhat confusing as to how it affects the jets path for us in wintertime?,

this 200mb Streamline/Isotach map for example clearly shows rogers impending cold snap of a pure arctic flow plunging down Fri through Sat

but I can never understand what implications (if any) it has across the atlantic for blighty?

(The possibility of the snowstorm Roger will sure lengthen the odds for San Diego next Sunday, if they can lengthen any further that is! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif )

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

following on BFTP: I`ve always found the downstream for us in the UK fascinating in terms of the conditions over the pond,

but also somewhat confusing as to how it affects the jets path for us in wintertime?,

this 200mb Streamline/Isotach map for example clearly shows rogers impending cold snap of a pure arctic flow plunging down Fri through Sat

but I can never understand what implications (if any) it has across the atlantic for blighty?

(The possibility of the snowstorm Roger will sure lengthen the odds for San Diego next Sunday, if they can lengthen any further that is! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif )

Look at the jet on the east US...yep heading rapidly north...not good for the UK or Western Europe.

BFTP

[debs]

Cookie, that low has now strengthened and is bringing 15-20 cms of snow to parts of New Brunswick and inland Nova Scotia.

Another weak low is following but is just producing light snow in the Great Lakes region now.

And the west coast low came screaming in over my head earlier (top gusts 57 mph) and temperatures have dropped to +1 C here, -5 C a few miles north of the city. Turning very windy now all across BC and Alberta as low pressure jumps the Rockies and sets up by morning in Saskatchewan, so the flow becomes strong NW to N rather quickly.

Although I earlier said it wasn't making much progress east, by Sunday or Monday some of this very cold air will perhaps interact with low pressure off New York to produce a snowstorm in the northeast, should make the NFL playoff game near Boston interesting to say the least. But cold air is also building over the northwestern parts of Canada, so the jet is being forced well south in almost all sectors here over the next five days.

Hiya all,

Started snowing here in NB around 2.30pm yesterday and is still snowing now. During the day the flakes are smaller but when the temps dropped the flakes are much bigger. Having said that we currently have about a foot of snow. Weather forecasters said we were getting about 2cm an hour for a wee while and I can certainly say that at around 5 to 7 pm I could'nt see the barn outside. Snowing is not as intense now and temps are at -6 with a windchill of -14. Its dry snow so no sledging today http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

TTFN

Debs