North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[knocker]

 

“Clearly September is starting unusually warm, and it looks like it will

continue warm much of the rest of the month,†Todd Crawford, a meteorologist with WSI, said by e-mail. “It looks like the hottest September since 2005 at this point. It isn’t crazy to think we have a pretty good shot at breaking the September records set in the 1920s and 1930s.â€

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/hottest-september-in-decade-has-power-up-from-new-york-to-boston

[Mokidugway]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/hottest-september-in-decade-has-power-up-from-new-york-to-boston

was pretty toasty out there..

[Coopsy]

_{This is a time lapse of the last 30 days in a town in the rocky mountains in Canada....see the leaves go from green to totally gone in such a short time - its pretty impressive.}

 

_{http://www.lookr.com/lookout/1401205064-Canmore#action-play-month}

Edited September 24, 2015 by Nemesis

[cheeky_monkey]

_{This is a time lapse of the last 30 days in a town in the rocky mountains in Canada....see the leaves go from green to totally gone in such a short time - its pretty impressive.}

 

_{http://www.lookr.com/lookout/1401205064-Canmore#action-play-month}

do you think you could make the type font any smaller??..anyway didn't Canadian coops live in Canmore?..its not far from Calgary

[Coopsy]

Yes I did :-) Just increased the font just for old people with bad eye sight

[cheeky_monkey]

 Might as well jump back into this thread now it looks likely im moving back to Calgary...anyway slightly off topic but does anyone know what happened to Canadiancoops? Haven't seen any posts from him since I returned to the UK some 16months ago

[Andy H]

He's changed his name, look at the post above yours

Edited September 25, 2015 by Andy H

[knocker]

Although there is much uncertainty about if and how TD 11 develops it could bring a significant rainfall event to the east coast.

Chart weatherbell

 

Edited September 29, 2015 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Indeed Knocker, some extreme rainfall totals being forecast..

 

Edited September 29, 2015 by summer blizzard

[knocker]

Yes Joaquin causing a few headaches with an upper trough over the SE US and HP to west. Latest total rainfall from Wxbell

 

 

Edited September 29, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Interesting

 

Special 6-hr upper air balloon launches to begin 18Z Wednesday at certain NWS locations to aid #Joaquin forecast. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ADASRH&e=201509291725 â€¦

 

 

Edited September 29, 2015 by knocker

[Gael_Force]

Interesting

 

Special 6-hr upper air balloon launches to begin 18Z Wednesday at certain NWS locations to aid #Joaquin forecast. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ADASRH&e=201509291725 â€¦

I think the last time that was done was when Sandy was approaching.

[knocker]

The 00z GFS has Joaquin hitting the Carolina coast on Sunday

Chart weatherbell

 

[knocker]

Models narrowing in on Joaquin's track

Chart weatherbell

 

[cheese]

First snowfall of the season for Alaska's largest city, Anchorage.

 

[Singularity]

 

Some mighty convection occurring around Joaquin's emerging eye feature now.

 

Models seem increasingly certain of a peak intensity somewhere between category 3 and category 5 in 3-4 days time, however the official NHC forecast only has category 2 intensity in a few days time. The models have raised the peak intensity consensus by some 2 or 3 categories over the space of 48 hours so perhaps that means the NHC aren't willing to put too much faith in them just yet.

[knocker]

The 12z gfs

Chart weatherbell

 

[knocker]

Hurricane Warnings for the Bahamas From Joaquin; Threat to U.S. East Coast Grows

 

Joaquin is now a hurricane, and Hurricane Warnings are up for the Central Bahama Islands as the slowly intensifying storm moves southwest at 6 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft made two penetrations of Joaquin's center on Wednesday morning, and found top surface winds of 80 mph, a central pressure of 971 mb, and a huge 54-mile diameter eye with a fully closed eyewall. Joaquin continues to battle high wind shear of 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the north-northwest, but this wind shear had fallen by about 5 knots since Tuesday morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air lay to the northwest of Joaquin, and the strong wind shear was driving this dry air into Joaquin's core, keeping intensification slow. Visible and infrared satellite loops show that Joaquin has developed a large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over the center, characteristic of intensifying storms, and the hurricane's large eye was beginning to be apparent. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has developed an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the southeast, which is supporting the intensification process. Ocean temperatures in the region are near 30°C (86°F)--the warmest seen there since record keeping began in 1880.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3131

[knocker]

HWRF has it approaching N. Carolina

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited September 30, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Category 3 Joaquin Bears Down on Bahamas

 

Hurricane Joaquin got down to business on Wednesday afternoon, vaulting from Category 1 to 3 status in a mere six hours. Joaquin’s top sustained winds zoomed from 85 mph in the 21Z (5:00 pm EDT) advisory from the National Hurricane Center to 115 mph in the 11:00 pm EDT advisory. Since the top winds were only 70 mph on Tuesday night, Joaquin more than qualifies for rapid intensification by the NHC’s definition: an increase in sustained winds of at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3133

[knocker]

Latest track models

Chart weatherbell

 

[knocker]

Massive Carolina/VA rain event Fri/Sat with huge flood threat.

Chart weatherbell

 

[knocker]

Official WPC forecast now has an area 17"+ of rain. If anything near that verifies - catastrophic flooding

Chart weatherbell

 

[knocker]

Joaquin Still Gripping Bahamas; #NotJoaquin Dousing Carolinas, Virginia

 

A potentially historic rainfall event for the Carolinas has begun, with many locations set to receive between 1 and 2 feet of rain by early next week. An intense band of thunderstorms has set up across eastern NC and northeast SC, and cells are “training†northward through this N-S band, already leading to high rainfall totals. A station at North Myrtle Beach, SC, reported 8.03†in the 24 hours up through 6:24 pm EDT Friday. More than half of that amount (4.30â€) fell during the last two hours of that period.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3138

[knocker]

Serious situation unfolding in the Carolinas with a serious flood risk.

Chart weatherbell