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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

just looked at the yellowstone park web cam at the old faithfull geyser interestingly the camera is not working due to the extreme cold it's been as low as -42F :unknw:

Edited by BARRY
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

In general, I think the frontal zone will now shift a little further south from the northern Great Lakes where it was most of the past two months, to the eastern seaboard, as a deeper trough develops over the Rockies. This has allowed seasonably cold arctic air to occupy most of the western half of the continent now, although the high is eroding and has detached from a stronger high over the Beaufort Sea. The most anomalous cold is actually close to where I am, -8 C being about 10 degrees below normal for here.

Would expect the storm track to run from Arizona to Okahoma and then PA-NJ to near or just south of NYC and Cape Cod in this pattern, but it may rebound north agian later.

This slightly milder wedge moving across the northeast today is the weak remant of the powerful storm that we were talking about in western Canada on Tuesday into Wednesday. The cold front from this will stall out from around Albany to Pittsburgh and then southwest into Tennessee and Arkansas to link up with a slowly developing low in New Mexico and west Texas over the weekend. This is indeed the classic central plains ice storm scenario with very cold air seeping in from the north underneath the Gulf moisture aloft. Worst icing likely to be across south central Missouri into south central Illinois and I could see that half inch being conservative given the long duration of this event, could see one to two inches of ice accretion in places, less as one goes northeast into Indiana and western Ohio, southeast Michigan. Sometimes storms like this send out waves and last for several days before reorganizing on the east coast, other times, they gear up and move northeast to melt the ice quite fast.

Good call Roger. Reports of 2.5 inches of ice across some parts.

Looks like NYC will see a below freezing day on Wednesday which will be the first since December 6th. Just a brief cold shot before temperatures rise again, but currently looking like colder air will again return at the weekend.

I'm off to Minneapolis tomorrow, and normal temperatures have returned there. Looks like a high of -8oC for Tuesday after between 3 and 8 inches of snow into tomorrow evening. Hopefully no problem with the flight getting in!

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl

Report on the severe ice storm hitting the US on the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6262533.stm

Seems very severe, particularly in Missouri and Oklahoma, and is expected to hit the East Coast tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Report on the severe ice storm hitting the US on the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6262533.stm

Seems very severe, particularly in Missouri and Oklahoma, and is expected to hit the East Coast tomorrow.

Ice is already falling through upstate New York and parts of New England with snow falling further north. New York won't be hit by the ice as the cold air will not dig in enough before the front clears through. Temperatures are supposd to drop tomorrow and particularly so into Wednesday, but it will be dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Landed in Minneapolis last night after a four hour delay leaving New York; low cloud and fog causing severe delays on the East Coast.

Anyway, when I landed the temperature was 3oF at 11pm. As I was driving the car to the hotel it was so cold the condensate on the inside of the windows froze!

I think the temperature fell to about -5oF in the city and -8oF or below here in the suburbs. I reckon that's about -20 to -22oC, so the coldest I've ever felt.

It snowed here on Monday night, and it obviously still remains. The sun shone gloriously all day in perfect clear blue skies, but as the temperature didn't rise above 15oF (-8oC) there was no snow melt whatsoever. Perfect powder absolutely everywhere...

Another clear night tonight, so the temperature is plummeting again, but I don't think it'll be quite so cold tonight; it's forecast to drop to 3oF, but as it's already 5oF I think they may be overcalling the temps!

Tomorrow and Thursday call for highs of 26oF (about -3oC) with snow showers on Thursday. It looks like winter may finally stick around for a while up here as Saturday and Sunday are the only days showing barely above freezing temps before plunging back well below freezing. An inversion is forming under the Artic high pressure as the upper temps are forecast to rise to about -3oC tomorrow.

post-1957-1168992674_thumb.png

Elsewhere, Chicago shows signs of something approaching normal winter weather as the temperature hovers around freezing with occasional snow flurries:

post-1957-1168992736_thumb.png

As for New York, temperatures vary, but highs look to be in the 40s F rather than the 60s during the warmer days! Still no sign of sustained cold on the East Coast, and no sign of a snowstorm either. A few flurries are forecsat for Saturday, but these are Lake Effect showers which have made it down from Upstate so probably nothing substantial. It does look like being a cold feeling day though as a strong NW to NNW wind sets in and funnels down Manhattan.

post-1957-1168993348_thumb.png

In summary, the block to the West of the US looks to be holding for the time being. In fact, the high pressure cell splits and another centre re-forms over the Western States which ensures that colder air will keep feeding down the centre of the country and then East. A proper winter pattern at last and one which I hope will hold through (or should that be thru? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif ) to March...

post-1957-1168993454_thumb.png

With the attendant 850s:

post-1957-1168993519_thumb.png

Much better than the endless Storm systems we saw barrelling straight into the West Coast for the past six weeks; now they are being forced further North and dragging colder Polar or Artic air in their wake.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Current obs put the temperature at -1oF (-18oC) at 10pm. That's already 4oF lower than 11pm last night so it looks like the -5oF from last night will be beaten...

Addit: Latest forecast shows temperature not getting above freezing in Minneapolis until next Wednesday at the earliest. May sound extreme, and the current temps are very cold, but it's pretty normal for here. The average January max is -6oC and the average minimum -16oC. The record low for January is a bone-chilling -41oC!

Some people have short memories; at least 3 people have fallen through frozen lakes whilst riding snowmobiles. Seems they forgot that the previous 6 weeks were well above average! Not an unusual story; two guys were lucky to escape with their lives last week in Duluth when their SUV fell through the ice on a lake...

Edited by WhiteFox
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Some very cold air heading south into eastern Canada, mainly the Maritime provinces. This is the northerly flow from Greenland and Baffin Island that will hopefully transfer east to the British Isles next week. But here in the west, the cold spell is slowly ending, today we had 2-3 cm of snow early morning, then a drizzly sleet most of the day, with 2-3 C temps. Just a touch milder by Thursday here, but staying close to normal values in many parts of western Canada.

As winters go in North America, this has not been a very stormy one so far, except here on the west coast, and this recent ice storm, otherwise I would say it has been rather bland. A recent severe frost in the vegetable growing portions of central CA has jacked up prices by two or three times normal values up here in the past week.

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Posted
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL

Taken from Ontarioweather outlook for this weekend: Yeeehaaaah!

LG QUATRE - LAFORGE AND FONTANGES.

SATURDAY..SUNNY. LOW MINUS 28. HIGH MINUS 23.

SUNDAY..SUNNY. LOW MINUS 29. HIGH MINUS 20.

NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD..LOW MINUS 29. HIGH MINUS 18.

ffO

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Although the Midwest has cooled off and wintry weather has hit many places, it is still not particularly cold in the lower 48 states. The Eastern Cities in particular have still lacked any cold spells lasting more than a day or two at the most. New York averages 39oF (4oC) in January and even with this current cooler spell, temperatures are currently only forecast to be below this on three of the next ten days, and even then only just. The story is the same in Chicago with temperatures mostly being around average (0oC) or just above. The same is true for Minneapolis.

So, although winter may have finally arrived in the US, for many parts temperatures are not particularly cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Unusually cold weather penetrating towards the Californian coasts, saw picutures of wet snow that had fallen on Mallibu beach on the news just now, usually noted for it's beach culture. Citrus crop taking a battering aswell it seems.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6270353.stm

http://www.californianonline.com/apps/pbcs...EWS01/701170301

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

I really like Minneapolis. At night the temperature falls weeeelllllll below freezing. Even though it was -5oF (@-20oC) the other night there was no frost on the car because the air was so dry. The snow which fell on Monday night has not even thought of thawing yet as the closest to freezing we've managed is -3oC. So, at worst we have slightly grey powder on the ground where the snow has been walked over a lot or driven over. Apart from the roads; the high of -3oC was enough for the salt to finally melt much of the snow in the bright sunshine. However, we had more snow today; about 2-3cms fell lightly throughout the day. In Britain it wouldn't even have settled because it was so light; here it's so cold that it left another thin covering on the roads and cars.

In summer, there is always a period where the temperature in Minneapolis reaches 100oF (38oC). Summers can be hot and dry. Winters are long and (usually) very cold. In between, a short spring and short autumn sandwich the two main seasons. A proper continental climate.

They have NOAA radios in office buildings and public buildings here. The reason? Tornadoes. The chances of a direct hit from a tornado are slim given the sheer scale of the country, but there was an F2 not far from Minneapolis back in September. In Minneapolis St.Paul airport I was intrigued to see that the toilets double as a 'Severe Weather Shelter'.

So Minneapolis is cool (literally right now!). However, Embarrass, Minnesota is something else. Check these weather stats:

Ave. Max Ave Min Rec. Max Rec Min

Jan 16(-9) -14(-26) 52(11) -57(-49)

Feb 24(-4) -8(-22) 58(14) -60(-51)

Mar 35(2) 6(-14) 69(21) -42(-41)

Apr 51(11) 22(-6) 87(31) -22(-30)

May 65(18) 33(1) 95(35) 10(-12)

Jun 73(23) 43(6) 97(36) 21(-6)

Jul 77(25) 48(9) 98(37) 24(-4)

Aug 75(24) 45(7) 97(36) 21(-6)

Sep 65(18) 36(2) 95(35) 14(-10)

Oct 52(11) 26(-3) 84(29) -7(-22)

Nov 34(1) 12(-11) 75(24) -33(-36)

Dec 20(-7) -5(-21) 57(14) -52(-47)

Pretty nippy during winter! The reason it was brought to my attention was that I commented on Minneapolis being cold to a work colleague and she asked me if I'd ever heard of Embarrass, Minnesota. Looking in the paper this morning, I noticed that Embarrass had recorded the lowest minimum overnight on Tuesday of -34oF (-37oC); still 23oF from the record!

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

A significant Lake Effect Snow event looks to be kicking off over this weekend.

An upper level low has crossed the Great Lakes over night and will help to fuel the development of a storm system off the coast of Maine. This will tighten the pressure gradient and pull in cold North Westerly winds across the Great Lakes:

post-1957-1169223839_thumb.png

post-1957-1169223857_thumb.png

The winds will be strong and with the lakes still being well above average temperatures, the potential remains for some very active weather. Normally by about February the lakes are too cold for much snow, but the last few winters have been different. With such strong winds, the UP of Michigan and Mainland Michigan look to be in for decent falls. For Ohio, the snow will have crossed three lakes and may dump as much as 18 inches to 2 feet of snow over the weekend. As with all Lake Effect snow, this will be very localised with favoured spots receiving a dumping, and others a few inches.

The usual spots in Upstate New York will also receive some snow: Syracuse from Lake Ontario and to the South West of Buffalo. The wind direction does not give such a long fetch over the water for upstate New York however, so possibly only up to 12 inches for spots around Syracuse, possibly less around Buffalo, with a few showers making it further inland. Perhaps a rogue flurry as far south as New York City...

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Had a few hours to kill before my flight yesterday, so I took a drive down to the Mississippi. Was happy to see that it was starting to freeze at the edges. There's something enthralling about watching such a mighty river slowly freeze...

post-1957-1169337298_thumb.jpg

post-1957-1169337346_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Any snow in the offing for New York whitefox?

Surely it's a record there if it doesn't snow b4 Jan is out

Judging by the beeb 5 day outlook snow there on Monday

Appreciate your thoughts

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Any snow in the offing for New York whitefox?

Surely it's a record there if it doesn't snow b4 Jan is out

Judging by the beeb 5 day outlook snow there on Monday

Appreciate your thoughts

We had a dusting overnight last night (a stray lake effect shower made it this far) and according to my sister a dusting on Friday morning which was the first measurabke snowfall of the season.

With the current pattern looking set, we should be seeing more snow soon enough. At the moment the jetstream is delivering storm after storm across the Southern States, with DC looking like receiving some snow, but I don't think it'll reach this far north. The important thing is that we have the cold air in place and the high temps in the twenties seem to have disappeared for now! All we need is for a classic storm to track up the East coast from the Gulf and deliver the classic Nor' Easter...

Nothing showing at the moment, but these things can develop very quickly; it does need another slight pattern shift however.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Have you seen the 12z ECM, thats a beast in terms of cold, not that snowy mind you but a real powerful cross-polar link-up establshing by 216hrs with a deep polar vortex sitting itself down over Canada, its a beast for sure on that run!

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Have you seen the 12z ECM, thats a beast in terms of cold, not that snowy mind you but a real powerful cross-polar link-up establshing by 216hrs with a deep polar vortex sitting itself down over Canada, its a beast for sure on that run!

Looks like there may be some extremely cold weather setting in for the end of January into early February. The 06z (I can't find the 12z) Ensemble from the GFS picks up on this for Chicago:

post-1957-1169515828_thumb.png

The average stays below -15oC for most of the run with a few of the warmer runs creeping above -10oC at times. As you say, it does look dry as the source is Arctic rather than polar, but some very cold temperatures associated with this setup!

Before then we have a bitterly cold day to face in New York this Friday. Take a look at the 850hPa chart for Friday:

post-1957-1169516198_thumb.png

Throw in a strong N to NW wind and it will feel absolutely frigid! We're looking at a high of about 22oF (-5oC) with a NW wind of 22mph. Definitely a day for the ear mufflers and parka with the hood up!

Incidentally, there are some extremely low thickness levels in upstate New York:

post-1957-1169516369_thumb.png

There will be some lake effect snow upstate with this setup, but the fetch isn't particularly long. Albany looks like maxing at -10oC on Friday with snow showers.

As can often be the case on the East coast, this is a fairly transient cold snap and moves on rather quickly so Saturday is forecast to warm up considerably above freezing as evidenced by the ensembles:

post-1957-1169516684_thumb.png

After the brief warm up the colder air moves East. It doesn't look particularly cold at this range, but the GFS underdid the cold for this Friday; earlier forecasts were going for touching -15oC in the 850s. It does still look dry however, so New York remains virtually snowless, although we have had a few dustings from rogue lake effect showers which have made it far enough South East.

It does look like the Eastern US will remain in the grip of winter for a bit longer once the second shot of air transfers down. There is a big build up in Canada. If the block in the Western US can hold then the cold air could set in for a while yet... However, if the Aleutian Low develops and strengthens then we may face a flattening of the jet which we saw from December through to mid January. A key point in the winter coming up I think.

Edited by WhiteFox
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

New York looks really bitter by Friday with maxes reading -8C ;)

Any news on snow for there wf?

Am I right in saying that if New York remains snowless until the end of month all sorts of records will be broken ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

New York looks really bitter by Friday with maxes reading -8C :)

Any news on snow for there wf?

Am I right in saying that if New York remains snowless until the end of month all sorts of records will be broken :D

We haven't been totally snowless. There was a dusting on the ground last Friday and Saturday morning. Total snowfall to date is barely 0.3 inches though. Hugely below the normal of course.

We're not the only area to record such below average figures though. As has been documented, the whole of the North East has been very unsnowy so far. In Minnesota, the annual dog-sled race was cancelled as there was not enough snow. Many of the typical Lake Effect areas such as Buffalo, South Bend, Syracuse etc. have recorded between 40-70% of normal average snowfall to date (some of these places should have had about 70 inches by now!). Only Marquette, way up in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan has come close with 91% of their 90 inch average.

The story is different in the West of course, with Colorado being above average. New Mexico, Texas and Arizona have also recorded above average falls. A southerly tracking jetstream is responsible; alas, too far south for New York!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

It has turned a lot milder here on the west coast in the past three days. The snow we had on the ground for the past two weeks has all melted and yesterday it was about 12 C with some warm feeling sunshine. Skies were oddly desert-like with extensive virga and weak convective cloud masses over the various mountains around the region, more like a typical winter sky in Arizona or southern Utah might look with a dry front in the area. Strong chinook warming now developing for Alberta and Montana as the arctic high moves away from the prairies into the Great Lakes region. Some bitter cold developing for the lower Great Lakes although not much of a gradient for squalls, could be -25 C in rural parts of Michigan and Ontario through the next few nights.

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

Thanks for the updates, it's always a pleasure to read what's happening across the pond!

A question for WF or Roger, I'm travelling to New York on 01st Feb for 3 nights and I was wondering what the prospects are for snow? I've seen on Accuweather they're expecting sleet on the Friday with possibly some snow on the Sunday (the day I have to fly back!) does that look right?

I understand there might be a major snow storm sometime next week, any further info on this?

Cheers guys! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Thanks for the updates, it's always a pleasure to read what's happening across the pond!

A question for WF or Roger, I'm travelling to New York on 01st Feb for 3 nights and I was wondering what the prospects are for snow? I've seen on Accuweather they're expecting sleet on the Friday with possibly some snow on the Sunday (the day I have to fly back!) does that look right?

I understand there might be a major snow storm sometime next week, any further info on this?

Cheers guys! :(

I think the setup is changing slightly. At the moment we have a fairly cold, but dry setup for the Mid-Atlantic/New York/Boston region. Looking at forecasts going forward, it does seem as if we may be moving towards a pattern with more moisture.

If the cold air can stay in place, which at the moment looks promising, then the probability of a snowstorm increases. The thing about the East coast storms is that they are extremely difficult to pick up from more than 5 days out. Currently the GFS is pointing at a potential storm developing to the South which would take the classic track East and then up the East coast for the weekend of 1st Feb. The question is whether other models will come on board.

February will almost always provide one decent storm of 8 inches+, but with the high SSTs there is always the potential for bigger storms; there is also the problem that the higher temps may make an event more marginal.

We're expecting up to an inch later on today with the Lake Effect Machine being so active, but this will never really provide much in the way of snow as it has to travel so far to reach here and a slight change in wind direction makes all of the difference.

Addit: Looking at the GFS ensemble from the 06a you can see that the operational run points to the possibility of a storm around about the 2nd Feb. Temperatures are marginal however, at about -5oC. Could be the potential for several inches of concrete (as they call it here), dry snow with a slightly different track, or mostly rain. Very much up in the air at the moment.

post-1957-1169749931_thumb.png

Edited by WhiteFox
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Currently -11 here in New York with a wind chill of -22. Going to be the coldest day for over two years here today... high temperature of -7oC forecast. Positively balmy! Certainly Saturday will feel positively balmy at +4oC!

Having said that, I'm off to Chicago again on Sunday, and the maximum temperature through to Tuesday is -6oC before reaching the dizzying heights of 0oC on Wednesday.

Edited by WhiteFox
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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

I think the setup is changing slightly. At the moment we have a fairly cold, but dry setup for the Mid-Atlantic/New York/Boston region. Looking at forecasts going forward, it does seem as if we may be moving towards a pattern with more moisture.

If the cold air can stay in place, which at the moment looks promising, then the probability of a snowstorm increases. The thing about the East coast storms is that they are extremely difficult to pick up from more than 5 days out. Currently the GFS is pointing at a potential storm developing to the South which would take the classic track East and then up the East coast for the weekend of 1st Feb. The question is whether other models will come on board.

February will almost always provide one decent storm of 8 inches+, but with the high SSTs there is always the potential for bigger storms; there is also the problem that the higher temps may make an event more marginal.

We're expecting up to an inch later on today with the Lake Effect Machine being so active, but this will never really provide much in the way of snow as it has to travel so far to reach here and a slight change in wind direction makes all of the difference.

Addit: Looking at the GFS ensemble from the 06a you can see that the operational run points to the possibility of a storm around about the 2nd Feb. Temperatures are marginal however, at about -5oC. Could be the potential for several inches of concrete (as they call it here), dry snow with a slightly different track, or mostly rain. Very much up in the air at the moment.

post-1957-1169749931_thumb.png

Thanks WF, all to play for still! I'll read your comments with increased interest next week!

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