North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[WhiteFox]

Growing excitement here on the East Coast. GGEM model this morning calling for a HECS (Historic East Coast Snowstorm) next week, with DC being pummelled with over a foot of snow, possibly quite a bit more, and heavy falls right the way up the East Coast with NYC also getting in the action.

It's one run though, and the only one I've seen so far which takes the storm on this track and quite so well developed.

The below chart shows the situation once the main storm has passed:

If this run verified then the snow lovers of the East Coast will rejoice. Personally I'll wait until I see some other models come on board. ECM is closer to GGEM solution, but GFS is still holding back by giving the DC the main thrust with very little to the North. Interesting week ahead.

Of course, I'll be in Florida...

[WhiteFox]

Taken from a Meteorologist posting on Eastern US forum:

If the storm did reach its full potential, we would be looking at widespread operational impact for the NYC Airports on south, through BWI/DCA/IAD, etc.

Update tomorrow

***12Z EURO: Just In**** Major Hit for PHL. Low tracks further north then the 12Z GFS as low bombs off of the New England Coast Wednesday morning. Closer to a full phase. Rain/snow line remains south of PHL but does shift north for a time. Another variable to consider. The 12Z Can may not be a bad middle ground.

Starting to look more positive for snow in New York, with DC likely to score a lot of snow at this stage!

[Mondy]

Kinda makes this weeks snowfall in the UK small fry compared to NY.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6347139.stm

Edit: controllable webcam, Oswego County. Snow aplenty there: http://www.oswego.edu/webcam/control.html?...=Control+Webcam

Edited February 10, 2007 by Mondy

[January Snowstorm]

Any updates on snowfall for New York City WF?

[WhiteFox]

Any updates on snowfall for New York City WF?

Models over here are reminiscent of watching an upcoming cold spell in Britain right now! The only thing that is absolutely 100% certain is that some PPN is heading for the Mid Atlantic for Tuesday/Wednesday. Possibilities:

1. Heavy snow for Appalachians in Virginia, heavy rain for North Carolina, Virginia, DC, Maryland and Delaware. This is only backed up by the ECM. The ECM overcooks the mild air overcoming the frigid air which has been in place in the North East for some time. The cold air is too deep to be overwhelmed so quickly.

2. Heavy snow for Apps, DC, Virginia, DC Maryland and Delaware, with some areas potentially receiving 1 - 2 feet of snow. Storm system flies off the coast and tracks North East before bombing off the Maine Coast. Philidelphia northwards get nothing. Only the GFS has gone for this solution, and the setup seems wrong for this. Blocking off the coast should steer the system North East, but the issue is how close it gets to the coast.

3. Heavy snow for the East Coast all points North of Virginia. Backed up by a couple of models; a proper MECS or HECS system.

There is another option which is similar to 3. but the system gives heavy snow to DC, Baltimore and gives Philidelphia and NYC about 8 inches with further up the coast getting little if anything.

Wataching the evolution of the models since Wednesday, the system has trended slightly north on most models, apart from the GFS which is starting to hint at this. If we get the full-blown MECS or HECS system, then some areas are looking at 2 feet of snow (mainly around DC, to the North and East) with PHL and NYC perhaps getting 12 inches+. There is a lot of energy associated with this system and moisture looks good. The main issue is suppression from the Polar Vortex sitting over Canada. If it remains in the current state then the storm gets ejected out to sea and PHL northwards remain dry with an Artic front pushing south reinforcing the cold air. If the PV shifts slightly then the system is allowed to push north-east and blanket the East coast. The UKMET shows an absolute bomb of a system which would bury much of the East Coast. I'd love to see that verify!

Anyway, it's looking like we won't know the detail until at least tomorrow evening. The system reponsible for the storm has not even entered the West Coast yet, so until it gets within range of better readings on the CONUS, the exact behaviour will not be known.

The key is the Polar Vortex...

Whatever happens we get another push of Artic air following in behind the storm as the cold air wins through. Today is the first day above freezing in a week and we're looking at highs of 2-3oC for the next couple of days and then a few more sub-zero days follow. If we get a decent snowpack then it could be pretty chilly next week.

Of course, I'm off to Florida tomorrow anyway!

[WhiteFox]

Looks like the GFS is starting to come on board with the Northern track of the storm:

Right temps, ppn and the Arctic blast following on!

[January Snowstorm]

Thanks for the updates whitefox.

Please keep updating if you can over the coming days

[Roger J Smith]

13 Feb _ 0800 GMT

Latest on the major storm in eastern U.S. and southern Ontario, track appears to be from current location in lower Mississippi valley northeast to around Pittsburgh PA, then a pressure jump to near NYC late Wednesday, followed by a very deep storm moving northeast from near the Long Island coast to the Gulf of St Lawrence.

Expect 10-20 inch snowfalls fairly widespread across central Mississippi valley, Indiana, Ohio, western KY-TN, southern MI, southern ON, upstate NY and some parts of PA but sleet to start in NYC and NJ, e PA changing to all rain as storm redevelops, rain-snow line likely to set up about Trenton NJ to Westchester NY to inland CT and MA, with mixed precip or freezing rain zone through northern part of city of New York and parts of PHL, s NJ, all rain coastal strip. This then moves towards Boston with same spread through se MA, but very heavy snow through upstate NY, this time without lake effect except for BUF-ROC in n.e. winds. Finally the storm gives heavy snow in southern Quebec, VT, inland NH, inland Maine, into nw NB with very strong winds developing all around the centre in various directions, for example ENE 50-70 mph from Boston to Bar Harbour by early Thursday, but also a zone of lighter winds close to the complex centre, NYC may see strongest winds late today and early tomorrow before storm moves overhead and lighter winds prevail for a time, then a blast of very cold air and blowing snow to end the storm on Thursday.

This will be quite a disruptive storm with all kinds of weather impacts along the track. The strength of the arctic air over the upper Great Lakes is near-record cold, -40 C being reported in parts of northern Ontario, so this storm will compress into very tight precip bands as it comes together. In New York, the whole menu of precip might be observed including such exotic variants as thunder ice pellets (always a crowd pleaser) and thunder-snow. Severe weather potential obviously high in the southeast states next two days, expect another rash of major tornadoes in MS, AL, GA and n FL, SC and NC, even se VA before this is over.

Edited February 13, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[MAF]

some recent pictures of the NY Snow

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/6348947.stm

[Coopsy]

Dont you just love it when the weather forecastor get it wrong....supposed to be sunny today...4 inches of snow later and still it is coming down at about 1-2 inches per hour

[January Snowstorm]

Any updates on this storm esp for NYC

[Polar Bear]

<br />Any updates on this storm esp for NYC<br />

<br /><br /><br />

..hi, dont know any weather specifics but i do know from a friend out there that it startd snowin at 1930 hrs in nyc. dont hav any other info than that..oh and that they all expecting (Via local media) pretty much what is written above. i e finish by thursday etc. hope that helps :-)

[BL.]

<br /><br /><br />

..hi, dont know any weather specifics but i do know from a friend out there that it startd snowin at 1930 hrs in nyc. dont hav any other info than that..oh and that they all expecting (Via local media) pretty much what is written above. i e finish by thursday etc. hope that helps :-)

Hopefully - got a flight landing at Friday lunchtime at JFK

Any updates, whether forecast or real time, muchio appreciatedio !!

[Coopsy]

We are now up to 9 hours of uninterupted snow, nice, especially as it wasnt forecast

[Roger J Smith]

Update on the big storm as of 1500z 14th

The track has probably been about 100 miles south of what was described above, with the effect that the rain-snow transition line is through the metro New York City area, then pretty much down the I-95 towards southern NJ and then south through the Delmarva peninsula. Heavy freezing rain has fallen in the PHL area and central NJ across northern parts of New York City, and it is raining on Long Island and coastal NJ. Inland snowfall totals have been generally 5-10 inches so far, augmented to 15-30 inches where cold winds blew in across Lake Ontario around ROC and BUF around to Hamilton ON, and across Lake Erie (which is largely frozen but there is still some moisture transfer) towards Cleveland OH and Erie PA.

The storm is now reorganizing south of JFK, deepening and moving NNE towards Providence RI, then should be over Boston this time tomorrow. Very heavy snow will now develop across the inland northeast US towards Montreal and eastern ON province, as the low reaches 972 mbs and winds howl around the centre at 45-60 mph. New York City will continue to get a complete mixture of precip types all day but will eventually turn to all snow by this evening (their time) and so the tail end of the storm for the city will be a blizzard-like 4-8 inches on northerly winds of 45 mph and temps dropping from near 30 F to 5 F (-15 C) with wind chills near -30 C. Whoever was going there on Friday -- either the flight could be diverted or delayed, or you'll get in and find the city digging out, take or buy full winter gear as it will stay bitterly cold for days after this storm moves away.

Inland, snowfall totals of 30 to 50 inches are likely because the storm is on a perfect track for severe over-running, at the ocean buoy offshore Long Island (at 39N 71W) it is currently 16 C with a 40 mph SE wind, so that air is being forced up over the top of the cold surface air (it is -15 C at Toronto near the northern edge of the snowfall). Can you imagine a storm like this across the UK? I can't, but I guess they happened before the last ice age set in.

[Mondy]

Inland, snowfall totals of 30 to 50 inches are likely

Nice view of the gathering storm:

Snowing in Times Square: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/# ...and it doesn't look like the gritters are out.lol

Edited February 14, 2007 by Mondy

[acrossthepond]

Here are some of my readings from the cold snap in the midwest. I am located in far northen Illinois right on the Wisconsin border.

Date High Low Snowfall(in)

Jan 27th -1c -10c 0.5

28th -6c -14c 0.2

29th -5c -15c 0.8

30th -6c -15c 0.3

31st -7c -19c 0.5

Feb 1st -6c -15c 0.3

2nd -14c -18c 0.2

3rd -13c -19c

4th -19c -24c

5th -16c -27c

6th -12c -24c 2.1

7th -12c -22c

8th -12c -24c

9th -9c -21c

10th -11c -22c

11th -5c -16c 1.1

12th -1c -5c 3.0

13th -4c -12c 2.9

[androcles]

Here are some of my readings from the cold snap in the midwest. I am located in far northen Illinois right on the Wisconsin border.

Date High Low Snowfall(in)

Jan 27th -1c -10c 0.5

28th -6c -14c 0.2

29th -5c -15c 0.8

30th -6c -15c 0.3

31st -7c -19c 0.5

Feb 1st -6c -15c 0.3

2nd -14c -18c 0.2

3rd -13c -19c

4th -19c -24c

5th -16c -27c

6th -12c -24c 2.1

7th -12c -22c

8th -12c -24c

9th -9c -21c

10th -11c -22c

11th -5c -16c 1.1

12th -1c -5c 3.0

13th -4c -12c 2.9

Here are some of my readings from the 'cold snap' in the South East of England last week.

Date High Low Snowfall

Tue 5.8 -1.6 Zilch

Wed 4.1 -5.5 Zilch

Thu 5.8 -0.6 4 inches (approx) but most in about ten years round here – traffic chaos big time at rush hour!

Fri 5.2 -1.1 Going

Sat 10.1 4.5 Gone – but the remains of Streak the Snowman were on the grass till Monday am with evidence that the

carrot had been nibbled by mice

And that is winter in South East England……….

Andy

[jethro]

The track has probably been about 100 miles south of what was described above, with the effect that the rain-snow transition line is through the

Inland, snowfall totals of 30 to 50 inches are likely because the storm is on a perfect track for severe over-running, at the ocean buoy offshore Long Island (at 39N 71W) it is currently 16 C with a 40 mph SE wind, so that air is being forced up over the top of the cold surface air (it is -15 C at Toronto near the northern edge of the snowfall). Can you imagine a storm like this across the UK? I can't, but I guess they happened before the last ice age set in.

[Roger J Smith]

I got a few minutes on the internet on my lunch hour here, storm is located just south of Long Island at 20z, New York City now in the snow, freezing rain has moved east to central Long Island, and parts of NY state just inland from NYC have reported 27 inches of snow, building collapses due to weight of snow on roofs, etc. More later when I have time, but the storm looks to be winding up as expected into a very powerful low, will be worse by tonight (their time).

[Roger J Smith]

The snowfall totals across the inland northeast US are quite stupendous. From northeast PA through the Catskills, eastern Lake Ontario, Adironacks, Vermont and NH, as well as parts of w MA and nw CT, snowfalls are generally 20 to 40 inches (!) and in some areas that's on top of the seven to ten feet that fell in the lake effect event. Hamilton ON also got 55-70 cms from northeast winds off L Ontario.

I have seen some storm totals as high as 38 inches but the main point is that the storm laid down a very deep snow pack over the whole area, then quickly lost energy in that sector and redeveloped further east. It has almost stopped snowing now in the US portions of the storm except for Maine but now eastern Quebec and inland NB are getting hit, as strong SE winds and rain hit NS and freezing rain changes to rain in NF.

Storm does not have the appearance of a zonal type low at all, seems likely to drift north and fill up over Labrador, with a secondary moving north across NF later on.

The storm in the eastern Atlantic now has a very strong northerly flow wedged between it and the N American low, some ship reports are showing N winds at 50 knots around 30 W. This may be part of the developing blocking pattern, everything is starting to look meridional.

[WhiteFox]

Been offline for a few days as I've had problems getting on the forum!

Anwyay I sat out the storm in Fort Lauderdale, so whilst New York was shivering in freezing rain, I was basking in temperatures of 28oC. After such a lengthy and largely snowless cold spell I'm really looking forward to some warmer weather.

Having said that, I've hired a 4x4 and am heading upstate this weekend to see the snow for myself. I'll take the camera and bring some pictures back with me. That's assuming that my flight from Fort Lauderdale to NYC manages to get out tonight; a bit of wind and New York's airports are appalling!

[parmenides3]

Radio 4 news last night featured a family from the UK who are among a couple of dozen Brits who have been stuck at JFK since Wednesday - no flights, no hotel rooms, no help from American Airlines. I hope those of you with flights planned have more luck! (and a room reservation)

:)P

[Paul Sherman]

Looking Very Good for the 1st Major Chaseable Outbreak for 2007 accross Oklahoma and Kansas.

From the SPC

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0348 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...PLAINS/MS VALLEY/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE

WRN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS

IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH/LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH. A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH

THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MIDDAY ON

SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET

IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD

INTO OK AND KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE

SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG

AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES

COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM

TRANSITIONS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...A

SQUALL-LINE WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY.

THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN

VALLEYS WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT POSSIBLE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NRN

FL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

Nice and early start Paul.. Will follow this with interest..