North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[Weather-history]

Lake effect snow affecting Buffalo, New York

http://www.buffalocam.com/

[kar999]

Lake effect snow affecting Buffalo, New York

My boss is currently stranded at Buffalo airport!

Statement as of 3:29 AM EDT on October 13, 2006

... Historic record setting snowfall for the Niagara Frontier...

A major early season lake effect snow storm continued to hammer

the region around Buffalo New York through the wee hours of

Friday morning.

By 3am, the Buffalo Airport had received 14 inches of snow with

nearly 4 inches occurring in the past hour. Elsewhere, in the

Village of Depew, the snow had quickly piled up to 24 inches since

it began less than 12 hours ago. This is amazing considering the

waters of Lake Erie were a warm 62 degrees as the snowband formed

late Thursday.

http://www.wunderground.com/forecasts/BUF.html#SPE

Records have been set on two consecutive days for snowfall at

Buffalo.

On Thursday, October 12, the Buffalo Airport recorded 8.3 inches of

snow, breaking the all time record for daily snowfall in October,

which was 6 inches last set on October 31, 1917.

Thursday's record did not last long however. Through 5am for Friday,

October 13, Buffalo recorded 10.9 inches of snow, setting a new mark

for the snowiest day in October since records began back in 1870.

Edited October 13, 2006 by kar999

[Weather-history]

Dawn at Buffalo and it looks wintry!

When you think the American summer ended on the 23rd of September, its only 19 days into their "autumn"

Although it has snowed in their "summer" many moons ago.

[kar999]

CNN Video (after the advert).

http://edition.cnn.com/video/player/player....wkbw&wm=10

Yesterdays report plus link to video from WKBW-TV News

http://www.wkbw.com/Story.aspx?preview=&am...;NStoryID=15425

Edited October 13, 2006 by kar999

[NL]

Expires 6:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2006

Statement as of 4:16 PM CDT on October 16, 2006

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

Jefferson Davis County in south central Mississippi

Lawrence County in south central Mississippi

Marion County in south central Mississippi

* until 500 PM CDT

* at 412 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 20 miles

southwest of Prentiss... or about 14 miles northwest of Columbia...

moving north at 45 mph.

* The tornado is will be near...

Prentiss by 435 PM CDT

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a

workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is

available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an

interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to

cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a

substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the

nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT Monday evening for

northeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. A Tornado Watch also

remains in effect until 900 PM CDT Monday evening for southern

Mississippi.

[disco-barry]

Well some early heavy snow for the USA has been causing problems, 6 people have died in this storm which has dropped 8".

Is this that out of the ordinary for new york/buffalo? and is it the lake snow effect?

[Las Vegas Weather Fan]

A little over a week ago I was swimming in Las Vegas, it was about 30C, and I could see snow on the peak of Mt Charleston, about 60 miles away.

[Las Vegas Weather Fan]

Blizzards in the Colorado Rockies. This is great news, the water from melting snow in the Colorado Rockies eventually ends up in Lake Mead (the Lake created by the Boulder/Hoover Dam), and that provides a huge amount of the water needed for Southern California, Southern Nevada, and Arizona.

The following is just a sample of the many snow warnings that were issued by the National Weather Service for multiple counties in Colorado:

Summit County, Mosquito Range (Colorado)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO

944 AM MDT THU OCT 26 2006

...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM POUNDING THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...

.HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE

MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AND PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE

INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IT WAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN

AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO BOULDER TO KREMMLING. SNOWFALL

RATES SOUTH OF THIS LINE WERE MOSTLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER

HOUR...BUT RATES AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR REPORTED IN THE

FOOTHILLS OF GILPIN AND CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE

AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRAVEL IS NOT

RECOMMENDED AND MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...

FOOTHILLS...AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS SO FAR RANGED BETWEEN 3 AND 9 INCHES ACROSS THE

BOULDER AND DENVER METRO AREAS...TO BETWEEN 10 AND 22 INCHES IN

THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

COZ033-034-261800-

/O.CON.KBOU.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-061026T1800Z/

SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/

NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-

SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/

GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE

9000 FEET-

INCLUDING...CAMERON PASS...LARAMIE AND MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS...

RABBIT EARS RANGE...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK...

WILLOW CREEK PASS...BERTHOUD PASS...BRECKENRIDGE...

EAST SLOPES MOSQUITO RANGE...EAST SLOPES SOUTHERN GORE RANGE...

EISENHOWER TUNNEL...INDIAN PEAKS...KENOSHA MOUNTAINS...

MOUNT EVANS...WILLIAMS FORK MOUNTAINS...WINTER PARK

944 AM MDT THU OCT 26 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY.

HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE

MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 22 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY NOON

TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ABOVE

TIMBERLINE WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE

HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE

OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage

Edited October 26, 2006 by Las Vegas Weather Fan

[SMU]

NE US is going to take another pounding this weekend-

New England, Upsatate New York, Niagra Buffalo etc will be walloped by heavy Wet LES at another early season lake cutter passes by-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn601.png

watch out for more news stories in a few days time-

S

[kold weather]

Thats very borderline indee for lower elevations, indeed 850hpa temps are very marginal but certainly some higher elevations are gonig to get hammered, I'd personally think 6-8 inches would be a good bet higher up and the places that get really hammered could well see more.

Also quite a potent low for this area of the world, esp considering its purely down to the et strength and no help from the sea surface temps, most impressive. Could be a very windy day for some as well.

[WhiteFox]

Not much action here at the weekend.

Interesting to see that October looks like being another below average month temperature wise in the US. This follows on from September which was the first below average month since May 2005.

I'll post the October map when it is published.

[WhiteFox]

I've often told people that the UK climate is similar to that of Seattle. Not any more! Take a look at this:

There's a pattern change underway here in the US. Looks like the recent Arctic/Canadian visits are gone for now. Current forecasts are pretty confident that the first half of November looks fairly mild. The New York ensembles have been consistent for a while now:

After next week the ensembles split, but a new pattern looks to be established, so it seems that I'll have to wait a while before seeing my first real snowfall stateside this winter...

Edited November 4, 2006 by WhiteFox

[WhiteFox]

Looks like a lot of uncertainty still remains with regards to a cold snap this weekend in New York. Scatter on the ensembles gives a range of about 18oC at the 850 level on the 12th. Even after Thursday there is quite a lot of disagreement. All up in the air for the East coast at the moment. The only thing that seems certain is a wet day tomorrow!

As it happens I'm off to Chicago again on Sunday and it looks like sub-zero 850s are fairly certain for the whole week going by the pub run:

Interestingly, the 0z shows another alternative with warmer air being drawn up followed by an active system crossing through by midweek. Looks like this is one scenario where a strong jet remains fairly flat keeping the coldest air in Canada:

So, even in the US we are looking into FI for brief colder spells! Just a matter of waiting for another pattern change....

Meanwhile, Seattle remains very Seattle-like. Quite an amazing amount of rain after a very dry summer:

[WhiteFox]

As promised, maps showing below average temperatures in US for October, the second month in a row:

For anyone who likes real cold, North Dakota is the state to go for! Fargo averages -1oF during January. Brrrrr!

40oF during October is a reason to get your thermals out:

[WhiteFox]

First frontal snow for Chicago this winter?

Ensembles have been picking up on a colder spell in FI for the last few runs:

Well into FI at the moment, but I will be keeping a close eye as I'm in Chicago from November 26th for a week. 850 temps of -10 coupled with precipitation has to be a dream come true for a snow lover from Reading who has been deprived for the past ten years or so. Will be keeping a close eye out, and should anything come of it, will take some pics. The great thing is that even if this disappears closer to the time as usually happens in the UK, it should only be a matter of time over here. Not that I want to make anyone jealous...

Would be intersting if the orange outlier verified!

As for New York, this week was extremely wet with a mild Nor'Easter Sunday into Monday and now much drier I believe. Looks like the first air frost may be recorded early next week going by the ensembles. There is also a lot of cold air being bottled up in the North East of the continent, hopefully just waiting to be tapped when the jet stream calms down a bit...

[January Snowstorm]

First frontal snow for Chicago this winter?

Ensembles have been picking up on a colder spell in FI for the last few runs:

thanks for the updates.

Keep them coming please esp for New York

[WhiteFox]

Very mild for Chicago Thanksgiving. Only 16% of Thanksgivings record temperatures in the 50s F. This is going to be one of them. Going forward, spot the cold front:

As for New York, the signal for colder conditions also exists:

Still a bit in the future, but this has been pciked up for a few days now. I'm hopinh it's not a phantom cold spell!

Elsewhere, Charlesston South Carolina recorded trace snowfall yesterday, with parts of East Georgia recording an inch or so. Doesn't sound remarkable until you realise that these places aren't so far north of Florida! In the North East, this Autumn has been noticeable by the singular lack of snowfall. None at all in Boston or New York. I'm currently in Albany, which would have expected four inches by now, where only trace has so far been measured. I hope it's not a signal for the coming winter!

Edited November 22, 2006 by WhiteFox

[Coopsy]

Large parts of North America have been fairly snowless this November. Most of Canada infact has had below average snowfall, though with the artic high coming into play and so warm pacific air coming in from the south west, things should start to change quite quickly for the western half of north america, but not looking like much snow for the east anytime soon

[WhiteFox]

Large parts of North America have been fairly snowless this November. Most of Canada infact has had below average snowfall, though with the artic high coming into play and so warm pacific air coming in from the south west, things should start to change quite quickly for the western half of north america, but not looking like much snow for the east anytime soon

Indeed. Since the pattern change around the end of October there has been no chance of snow in the North East beyond a small amount of Lake Effect snow in the usual areas.

The Weather Channel are looking at the first major snowstorm of the season moving across the upper Midwest next week. Will keep posted on developments as I'll be in Chicago; I just hope it doesn't come through on Friday when I'm trying to fly out of O'Hare!

[WhiteFox]

Getting closer to the time now and the snowstorm is still on for the High Plains. Ensembles for Chicago show a really potent cold front coming through still:

More than 20oC drop over a very short period of time! That's the American Midwest for you!

New York is still showing a disappointing lack of snow, but some real cold finally looks like arriving on the back of the same cold front coming through Chicago:

winter proper will be here soon!

As for now, in New York a coastal storm has moved up the east coast and we've had rain for about 12 hours or so. It's as cold as it can be with the ppn still being liquid. Thoroughly horrible weather!

[Weather-history]

Thats one big high pressure cell!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn1801.png

[WhiteFox]

Winter is definitely making it's presence felt in the US this week! Some bitterly cold air in Canada, as I'm sure CanadianCoops will testify, is heading this way.

Some rivers have started icing in Canada, so that's a taste of the depth of cold.

Personally, I'm watching a potential development here in Chicago for this Friday. I'm flying out of O'Hare airport on Friday night to New York; a bad enough journey at the best of times!

The situation is this:

The cold air currently filtering down over the North West is heading over North Dakota, to the South and East. By Friday, it looks like a developing system wil be over Michigan pulling in North Easterly winds:

These winds are dragging in increasingly cold air over Lake Michigan, which is still relatively warm, particularly as November has not been overly cold. This will increase the instability and enhance precipitation:

Air Thickness looks marginal, but dew points are forecast below freezing. At the moment this is a developing situation which could still come to nothing. It all depends on exact positioning. For once I don't want it!

Strange to think it's currently about 15-16oC in Chicago!

[Paul Sherman]

Quite a Good Set Up for Tomorrow and certainly would not look out of place for Early Spring or Late Summer let alone nearly December. I'd expect a few Tubes from this near the Red River TX/OK Border, any further west is good Chase Country towards Childress, but any further east the terrain is an absolute Nightmare in South East Oklahoma, Good DP's though.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1135 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK NEWD TO WRN IL...

...SYNOPSIS...

SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE CNTRL

U.S THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY

ENCOMPASSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...TRANSLATES EWD. WHILE A

PORTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH

SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD FROM MT INTO SRN CANADA...ANOTHER VIGOROUS LOBE

OF VORTICITY AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET SEGMENT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE

GREAT BASIN AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS

SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY

MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE EWD TRANSITION OF THE

LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT

ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE WRN GREAT

LAKES...MIDWEST...AND SRN PLAINS REGIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW

NIGHT.

...NRN TX...ERN OK...OZARKS...

MOIST AXIS HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS GIVEN

PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE

TROUGH EARLIER TODAY. CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE COLD

FRONT WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS

AND SUPPORT MUCAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1000 J/KG PERHAPS AS EARLY AS

WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NWRN/CNTRL OK BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BIT

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT WITH

THE GFS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER START TO MORE VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION

ACROSS OK/NORTH TX BY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF INCREASINGLY

DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF INTENSIFYING

UPPER JET...AND GENERALLY WEAK CAP ACROSS MOIST AND UNSTABLE

PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SUPPORT

ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS. A SUPERCELL TORNADO AND/OR VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS

POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RED RIVER REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY

EVENING WHERE THERMAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION MAY ENHANCE LOW

LEVEL MESOSCALE FORCING.

BULK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION IS LIKELY TO LINE UP ALONG OR

IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SEWD

ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE A LINEAR MCS

WITH A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF NERN OK

AND NCNTRL TX INTO THE LATER EVENING.

...NRN MO TO IL...

MOIST AXIS WILL BE NARROW AND CAPE WILL BE WEAKER FROM THE OZARKS

NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO WRN IL. NONETHELESS...LIFT ALONG THE

FRONT...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR

PROFILES...SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION

TO POSE A THREAT OF EITHER MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS.

GIVEN CONSENSUS IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF AT

LEAST 500 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING

NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND STRONG SIGNAL THAT VIGOROUS

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN HIGH MOMENTUM REGIME...NEWD

EXTENSION OF THE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEARS PRUDENT AT THIS

TIME.

..CARBIN.. 11/28/2006

Paul Sherman

[WhiteFox]

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Chicago area for Thursday night into Friday. This means accumulating snow, with between 5 and 7 inches possible, locally heavier:

/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0003.061130T2100Z- 061201T1500Z/ WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY- LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY- WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS- FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER- BENTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... ROCKFORD...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN... OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA... CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO... MORRIS... JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC... WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY... VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER... FOWLER 326 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 /426 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A STORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

So, latest forecasts for Chicago showing a maximum of 34oF (1oC) for tomorrow, followed by an ice day on Friday (0oC) and lows of -5oC Friday night. Saturday barely climbs above freezing, and Sunday/Monday are both forecast to be below. The ongoing forecast shows temperatures maxing out at 2-3oC over the next week. Don't want to make anyone jealous in the UK! Bear in mind that we had a temperature of 67oF (19oC) just yesterday (Tuesday)! This is going to come as a shock.

The ensembles show the tumble quite nicely:

Just look at the depth of cold air available aloft:

As I said before, this is snow I actually don't want! I have to fly out of O'Hare tmorrow night, and a day of snow will almost certainly mean delays or cancellations.

[WhiteFox]

Quite a Good Set Up for Tomorrow and certainly would not look out of place for Early Spring or Late Summer let alone nearly December. I'd expect a few Tubes from this near the Red River TX/OK Border, any further west is good Chase Country towards Childress, but any further east the terrain is an absolute Nightmare in South East Oklahoma, Good DP's though.

Paul Sherman

Haven't seen any tornado reports yet. I think the tornado watches for Oklahoma and Northern Texas are due to expire in the next couple of hours.

Just to show how quickly the weather can change here, All areas from Dallas to Chicago are under Winter Storm Watches!

Kansas City is under an Ice Storm watch. They just showed pictures of accumulating sleet (believe it or not!). Sleet had accumulated on car windscreens and froze solid.

All a bit more interesting than winter in Reading!

Addit: Current readings show temperature in Oklahoma City at 29oF (-2oC) and Dallas at 73oF (23oC). Quite a powerful cold front!

High of 80oF in Dallas today, high of 34oF tomorrow...

12-18 inches of snow forecast for Missouri from the developing storm. I wonder how the board would cope with that in the British Isles?

Edited November 30, 2006 by WhiteFox