North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[carinthian]

33 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

It’s certainly accelerating at quite a rate. And on a side note this will have a rapid knock on effect for the decline in glaciers in western Canada. In just 15 years I’ve personally seen quite the retreat at the Columbia ice fields, which straddles Alberta and British Columbia. They estimate 70% retreat by the end of the century. At this rate that could be a lot sooner 

The same in Austria. I can at times visibly see the glacier on Gross Glockner, the highest mountain in the Eastern Alps and can say it has definitely shrunk during my 15 years in Austria. Other well known glaciers report the same, some even at a faster rate. There is a big innovation to artificially protect or slow down the rate of melt going on now. Really sad state of affairs, especially when the likely cause is due to mans pollution of the atmosphere.

C

[carinthian]

Current temperature is 33c in Vancouver at 10am. Heading for the cities hottest day ever. Further towards the border, Abbotsford 35c at the same time.

 C

[ANYWEATHER]

The mid 1850s saw some extreme high temps much higher than now.....but much of  North America is rather cool ...atm .

[Coopsy]

24 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

much of  North America is rather cool ...atm .

Huh? I’ll take the bait. Rather cool? 

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Huh? I’ll take the bait. Rather cool? 

Look at the American data it's getting colder Fact....

[Coopsy]

21 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Look at the American data it's getting colder Fact....

Lol OK. Meanwhile we’ve just hit a joint record breaking 37oC in Canmore at 4300ft asl and 51oN 

Edited June 28, 2021 by Coopsy

[ANYWEATHER]

I hate record breaking as there as been much lower temps and higher temps over the planet, which never has been recorded,  but the temperature in British Columbia is probably due to the Adiabatic effect ....and I'm very surprised that it's taken a lifetime for that to happen...!

[matty40s]

 

[Coopsy]

Record breaking heat in Canmore today.  Over the magical 100oF.....still hot at midnight. Pics or it didn’t happen I hear you say....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

22 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Many of these areas as around the same latitude as much of Southern England. Only a matter of time before 40oC is breached there I think.

I disagree. Too much influence of cool waters in all directions. The Pacific NW as proven can have a long uninterrupted landtrack of heating, not modified by sea temps to the SE and E. I think 39c is the highest we could possibly achieve. 25th July 2019 was the setup of a century to do it, and it marginally failed (38.7 at Cambridge). Temps were smashing 42-43c on the other side of the Channel, and in the Netherlands and NW Germany (the same latitude as much of England.) So the Channel was clearly to blame there. Even Florida struggles to breach 40c for very similar reasons, despite being on the same latitude as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. 

Edited June 29, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I disagree. Too much influence of cool waters in all directions. The Pacific NW as proven can have a long uninterrupted landtrack of heating, not modified by sea temps to the SE and E. I think 39c is the highest we could possibly achieve. 25th July 2019 was the setup of a century to do it, and it marginally failed (38.7 at Cambridge). Temps were smashing 42-43c on the other side of the Channel, and in the Netherlands and NW Germany (the same latitude as much of England.) So the Channel was clearly to blame there. 

But if temps reach 44-45c on the other side of the channel then it follows it can reach 40 in South East England.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

But if temps reach 44-45c on the other side of the channel then it follows it can reach 40 in South East England.

Florida barely even reaches 40c, and it’s on the same Latitude as Kuwait. I doubt we will see it. We haven’t even reached 30c yet this summer! 

If you look at the dewpoints, they are not even reaching 12-13c up there in B.C. meaning very low humidity. Higher temperatures are generally achieved with low humidity. Something you’re seldom ever going to get being surrounded by sea, and lack of mountainous terrain. 

Edited June 29, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[mountain shadow]

41 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Florida barely even reaches 40c, and it’s on the same Latitude as Kuwait. I doubt we will see it. We haven’t even reached 30c yet this summer! 

If you look at the dewpoints, they are not even reaching 12-13c up there in B.C. meaning very low humidity. Higher temperatures are generally achieved with low humidity. Something you’re seldom ever going to get being surrounded by sea, and lack of mountainous terrain. 

Florida is surrounded by long fetch water on three sides, however, it continental parts to the North breach 40 degrees. Tallahassee as reached 43 degrees.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Florida is surrounded by long fetch water on three sides, however, it continental parts to the North breach 40 degrees. Tallahassee as reached 43 degrees.

I just can’t see 40c ever being achieved in the UK.

For it to happen, you would need a super plume, I.e a full blown African plume of 25c uppers minimum ideally between Mid July and Mid August. Not only that, the timing of peak uppers would need to fall right in the middle of the afternoon, not superseded by flash cloudcover or a change of wind direction from a more maritime direction. The Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk fens or Heathrow/Northolt Area on a SSE surface flow would be the places that likely crack it. In my opinion, easily a once in perhaps a millennium event. 

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Florida is surrounded by long fetch water on three sides, however, it continental parts to the North breach 40 degrees. Tallahassee as reached 43 degrees.

 

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I just can’t see 40c ever being achieved in the UK.

For it to happen, you would need a super plume, I.e a full blown African plume of 25c uppers minimum ideally between Mid July and Mid August. Not only that, the timing of peak uppers would need to fall right in the middle of the afternoon, not superseded by flash cloudcover or a change of wind direction from a more maritime direction. The Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk fens or Heathrow/Northolt Area on a SSE surface flow would be the places that likely crack it. In my opinion, easily a once in perhaps a millennium event. 

There was quite a comprehensive paper written about this last year. General consensus is when, not if, it’ll happen...

The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom | Nature Communications

WWW.NATURE.COM

---

The United Kingdom has experienced a strong heat wave in 2019 that set a new temperature record for the country of 38.7 °C. In this study the authors show that under climate change, local...

 

[Derecho]

4 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I just can’t see 40c ever being achieved in the UK.

For it to happen, you would need a super plume, I.e a full blown African plume of 25c uppers minimum ideally between Mid July and Mid August. Not only that, the timing of peak uppers would need to fall right in the middle of the afternoon, not superseded by flash cloudcover or a change of wind direction from a more maritime direction. The Cambridgeshire/West Norfolk fens or Heathrow/Northolt Area on a SSE surface flow would be the places that likely crack it. In my opinion, easily a once in perhaps a millennium event. 

Really? Cambridgeshire got to 39C in July 2019 and Heathrow may have snuck over 40C on the same day if cloud cover hadn't developed in the afternoon. It only takes one day of heat to get 37C... look at July 1st 2015 and July 31st 2020 for example.

A few hot days preceding that followed by large and intense plume from the south could easily see temperatures topple 40C. Indeed model output for July 2015, August 2018 and July 2020 showed temperatures over 40C at times from the Atlantic holding on that little bit longer. They didn't come off but one day in the future it will and that may be close..

June 2019 could have done it as well if we hadn't have had the cool surface winds off the North Sea when we had those record breaking uppers, the same uppers that delivered record highs in France.... in June!

and as for ANYWEATHERs comment about the US getting cooler....

The observations don't suggest that...

Edited June 29, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Roger J Smith]

Into day four of record breaking heat in BC, as well as most of WA, OR states, parts of ID. Locally it has been 40 to 42 C each day since Saturday, heading for that again now (1100h local time, 38 C). Lytton BC has broken the all-time Canadian (and BC) records twice already, the second time yesterday reaching 47.9 C -- before its first record the Canadian high was 45 C (July 1937 in SK) and the BC high was 44.4 C (112 F as recorded) at the same location in July 1941. 

We are under a heat dome of about 598 dm with thickness contours as high as 594 dm. Clear skies and very little breeze so far, the heat dome has moved inland from a coastal position on Saturday to northern Idaho this morning. Some relief is predicted here by Friday although temperatures will only fall back to slightly above normal low 30s. 

Before this set in, we had been in a more regular heat wave for about a week so it has been over ten days of heat now. 

Both Seattle (108F) and Portland (115F) have set new all-time highs, Vancouver's airport so far has been tempered by sea breezes and has been below the 2009 high of 35 C each day, although most of the city has probably been 38-41 C. 

Although we are used to summer heat waves in southern BC, this is both extreme and unusually early, this climate normally does not shift to full summer mode until mid-July, and almost all the top ten temperatures for most locations before this spell were in late July and August. 

The fear is that the heat will break with dry lightning thunderstorms and forest fires will erupt. So far only a few minor and easily controlled wild fires in the region (the worst of them in north central WA, we are getting a bit of smoke haze from that today here). 

[Roger J Smith]

Current 500 mb analysis from Environment Canada (12z) ...

(this link may update later, will see what happens and try to make this or the next capture permanent for the thread)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Really? Cambridgeshire got to 39C in July 2019 and Heathrow may have snuck over 40C on the same day if cloud cover hadn't developed in the afternoon. It only takes one day of heat to get 37C... look at July 1st 2015 and July 31st 2020 for example.

A few hot days preceding that followed by large and intense plume from the south could easily see temperatures topple 40C. Indeed model output for July 2015, August 2018 and July 2020 showed temperatures over 40C at times from the Atlantic holding on that little bit longer. They didn't come off but one day in the future it will and that may be close..

June 2019 could have done it as well if we hadn't have had the cool surface winds off the North Sea when we had those record breaking uppers, the same uppers that delivered record highs in France.... in June!

and as for ANYWEATHERs comment about the US getting cooler....

The observations don't suggest that...

We will see. It took another 16 years from August 2003 for 38c to be bettered however. Uppers of 23c or above are very rare for this island. There’s so much that would work against us making that 40c mark, in terms of relative humidity, and being tempered by maritime influence. The near continent sees 40c more often as they have maximum heating available, no sea breezes and lower humidity, but even that is rare for them too. I think July 2019 may even be the first time that Belgium and the Netherlands saw 40c. It will not be easy, that’s all I’m saying! 

[Coopsy]

I’ll put my house on it being another 38oC day by 4pm....and probably again tomorrow...unbelievable sustained heat. 

Edited June 29, 2021 by Coopsy

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

We will see. It took another 16 years from August 2003 for 38c to be bettered however. Uppers of 23c or above are very rare for this island. There’s so much that would work against us making that 40c mark, in terms of relative humidity, and being tempered by maritime influence. The near continent sees 40c more often as they have maximum heating available, no sea breezes and lower humidity, but even that is rare for them too. I think July 2019 may even be the first time that Belgium and the Netherlands saw 40c. It will not be easy, that’s all I’m saying! 

I think that's fair enough! It is like threading through the eye of a needle.

I hope it doesn't happen but I think the potential is definitely there now.

[ANYWEATHER]

It's about time this record after nearly 90 years dropped.  I wonder  how high the temperature got in the late 1800s ..Record breaking heat and cold is irrelevant, over population is the problem...there is too many of us ...affected by Weather. ?..

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Coopsy said:

I’ll put my house on it being another 38oC day by 4pm....and probably again tomorrow...unbelievable sustained heat. 

reached 42c yesterday on site in Prince George..currently its 39c

[Coopsy]

7 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

reached 42c yesterday on site in Prince George..currently its 39c

Wasn’t the record 39oC? if so, you’ve smashed that. Another record breaking day in Canmore.
 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Coopsy

[carinthian]

Another amazing fact of the incredible temps of 120f recorded in Lytton BC is that it is the furthest North ever recorded for that value ( 50 N LAT). Heat warning now in effect for the Canadian Arctic Region.

C