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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

2013 Alberta Floods 

This time 8 years ago it started raining. Nothing unusual in June I thought. 48 hours later and I was in the thick of (at the time) the costliest natural disaster in Canada’s history.

From 19-21 June half a years rain fell in just 36 hours.  9 inches (228mm) of rain fell in Canmore townsite. (Over a foot was estimated in the mountains). A local state of emergency was declared by June 21.

Flooding was widespread from the run off from the mountains as new rivers raged down the mountains. Luckily the main river that runs through the town just held. At its highest it was inches away from breaching it’s banks. Had that gone then literally most of Canmore would have been devastated. I lived next to the river. 

In town thousands were evacuated and many homes were lost. Evacuation centres were set up at the high schools. Our house was flooded and we ended up spending 3 nights at my works office, where thankfully it was on higher ground. And I had the relative luxury of a sofa, TV, private toilet, fridge and comfy blow up bed. I was one of the lucky ones. 

Canmore is accessed via the only road in and out - the main highway. There are other back routes through the higher mountain passes. But by June 20 there were two landslides that cut Canmore off from the outside world. One to the east and another to west.

All drinking water was unuseable as it became tainted by sewage. With no way in or out water supplies became scarce in town as people bought up all the bottled water. 

The Canadian forces were called in with supplies and to help in the rescue mission - which included getting the highway opened. 

Amazingly within 4 days they had built a temporary bridge, allowing emergency  access in and out. Supplies were getting back to normal and work was underway to repair the highway and various locations around town that had been destroyed by the floods.

Within a few days after it stopped raining flood waters receded. Within a week or so our water supply was back, within 10 days it’s was 36oC with blazing sunshine and Canada day celebrations went ahead, brining much needed normality to the town. Within a few months all roads had been repaired. It took much longer to repair houses and infrastructure in the heart of the floods.

Other than suffering a few weeks of mild PTSD where I’d wake every night drenched in sweat dreaming the house was being washed away in the floods, I did OK. A lot of people did a lot worse and sadly lives were lost. I still get anxious when it rains. 

What I do remember most is the overwhelming sense of community, strangers helping strangers. Opening their doors, feeding them. Saving lives. 

Overall in southern Alberta over 100,000 people were displaced. Over 2000 Canadian forces were called in and over 32 towns were in a state of local emergency. It cost over $5 billion. Amazingly only a handful of people sadly lost their lives. 

And to top it off my mum flew into Calgary oblivious it was all happening until she landed. And was stranded there for 4 days until I could get through and pick her up. Talk about timing. Quite the experience for her. 

Here’s a few pics from the occasion. 

ECB08CB3-EC57-41F6-BF23-C893839FEECC.thumb.jpeg.86acf530eb5746c686903b77ec2271df.jpeg

The main highway 

C4D89C92-8432-48A8-A7F9-6B4EBE0882EE.thumb.jpeg.332c1dc36baa47baba52eeec561e9059.jpeg

301180B4-A49F-452C-B7E7-C09C1EFCAF7B.thumb.jpeg.3d2bcafb0fd6dd85ab48176cacd590a6.jpeg
 

A052B181-51D5-4E95-9F8B-54A881D0810E.thumb.jpeg.fb30ca35ea1d17072783daa303e0de6b.jpeg

Me driving past just before the landslide (to the right of the first two pictures) 

A15C67F0-ED84-48C2-817C-B117D034BC59.thumb.jpeg.c7202f73ed87fa9259311fa20835df85.jpeg

The aftermath of the landslide (trucks and buildings in there)

A9CA4CFD-95D5-4AA0-89A4-DAF36CF90251.thumb.jpeg.ca33f60e9316e301d97f2fac95fbe633.jpeg

Some shots around Canmore

1C5D6627-6156-4FAB-8A46-B24356E4A3A8.thumb.jpeg.0d4a45cbb81868ed0955d9c3f171477b.jpeg

28918EAA-E525-4C92-B37C-DD9C35EB5C13.thumb.jpeg.90335dac514e8ecf73d6889dbcdfa45d.jpeg

9B055EFB-D7B2-42E4-B84F-34A0E11385CC.thumb.jpeg.01113c23fa876a6f050ab84ef7b352b2.jpeg

7143438F-7965-4F8E-BE16-E2422FD2DBD4.thumb.jpeg.386ece3c7e11a9859494086ee55ba965.jpeg

My back yard before and after (some locals out in canoes checking on neighbours)

B15DD068-59C0-414D-BA0D-53BC3E39E4D6.thumb.jpeg.c6d4cfdeccab99f24ea69541ec580b1c.jpeg

My road 

6E52AE49-7598-4630-A20F-72B599FC260E.thumb.jpeg.cfd45d60e5b9aa80ed70ff6940b73f34.jpeg

My garage 

AE4DF231-095E-4598-9970-9A129E49C37C.thumb.jpeg.badd7785bc42e91934f509ab489df706.jpeg

When the sun came out...and waters started receeding. 

4C754A29-4FE7-456E-916B-8353CB3B7240.thumb.jpeg.2d8dc5d5cd3318c306db6ae04beff2f0.jpeg

E0CF645F-9313-490B-9F62-02B911C29F7D.thumb.jpeg.b986a986db18ec0983e49b3e67fc7924.jpeg

Canada Day 

C9B02EA2-C187-4301-B4B1-3FE0D175B031.thumb.jpeg.6765f6fe782fc78f82d9e0d596ceec59.jpeg

It was an unbelievable experience and one I’ll never forget.

Edited by Coopsy
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
On 19/06/2021 at 04:48, Coopsy said:

2013 Alberta Floods 

This time 8 years ago it started raining. Nothing unusual in June I thought. 48 hours later and I was in the thick of (at the time) the costliest natural disaster in Canada’s history.

From 19-21 June half a years rain fell in just 36 hours.  9 inches (228mm) of rain fell in Canmore townsite. (Over a foot was estimated in the mountains). A local state of emergency was declared by June 21.

Flooding was widespread from the run off from the mountains as new rivers raged down the mountains. Luckily the main river that runs through the town just held. At its highest it was inches away from breaching it’s banks. Had that gone then literally most of Canmore would have been devastated. I lived next to the river. 

In town thousands were evacuated and many homes were lost. Evacuation centres were set up at the high schools. Our house was flooded and we ended up spending 3 nights at my works office, where thankfully it was on higher ground. And I had the relative luxury of a sofa, TV, private toilet, fridge and comfy blow up bed. I was one of the lucky ones. 

Canmore is accessed via the only road in and out - the main highway. There are other back routes through the higher mountain passes. But by June 20 there were two landslides that cut Canmore off from the outside world. One to the east and another to west.

All drinking water was unuseable as it became tainted by sewage. With no way in or out water supplies became scarce in town as people bought up all the bottled water. 

The Canadian forces were called in with supplies and to help in the rescue mission - which included getting the highway opened. 

Amazingly within 4 days they had built a temporary bridge, allowing emergency  access in and out. Supplies were getting back to normal and work was underway to repair the highway and various locations around town that had been destroyed by the floods.

Within a few days after it stopped raining flood waters receded. Within a week or so our water supply was back, within 10 days it’s was 36oC with blazing sunshine and Canada day celebrations went ahead, brining much needed normality to the town. Within a few months all roads had been repaired. It took much longer to repair houses and infrastructure in the heart of the floods.

Other than suffering a few weeks of mild PTSD where I’d wake every night drenched in sweat dreaming the house was being washed away in the floods, I did OK. A lot of people did a lot worse and sadly lives were lost. I still get anxious when it rains. 

What I do remember most is the overwhelming sense of community, strangers helping strangers. Opening their doors, feeding them. Saving lives. 

Overall in southern Alberta over 100,000 people were displaced. Over 2000 Canadian forces were called in and over 32 towns were in a state of local emergency. It cost over $5 billion. Amazingly only a handful of people sadly lost their lives. 

And to top it off my mum flew into Calgary oblivious it was all happening until she landed. And was stranded there for 4 days until I could get through and pick her up. Talk about timing. Quite the experience for her. 

Here’s a few pics from the occasion. 

ECB08CB3-EC57-41F6-BF23-C893839FEECC.thumb.jpeg.86acf530eb5746c686903b77ec2271df.jpeg

The main highway 

C4D89C92-8432-48A8-A7F9-6B4EBE0882EE.thumb.jpeg.332c1dc36baa47baba52eeec561e9059.jpeg

301180B4-A49F-452C-B7E7-C09C1EFCAF7B.thumb.jpeg.3d2bcafb0fd6dd85ab48176cacd590a6.jpeg
 

A052B181-51D5-4E95-9F8B-54A881D0810E.thumb.jpeg.fb30ca35ea1d17072783daa303e0de6b.jpeg

Me driving past just before the landslide (to the right of the first two pictures) 

A15C67F0-ED84-48C2-817C-B117D034BC59.thumb.jpeg.c7202f73ed87fa9259311fa20835df85.jpeg

The aftermath of the landslide (trucks and buildings in there)

A9CA4CFD-95D5-4AA0-89A4-DAF36CF90251.thumb.jpeg.ca33f60e9316e301d97f2fac95fbe633.jpeg

Some shots around Canmore

1C5D6627-6156-4FAB-8A46-B24356E4A3A8.thumb.jpeg.0d4a45cbb81868ed0955d9c3f171477b.jpeg

28918EAA-E525-4C92-B37C-DD9C35EB5C13.thumb.jpeg.90335dac514e8ecf73d6889dbcdfa45d.jpeg

9B055EFB-D7B2-42E4-B84F-34A0E11385CC.thumb.jpeg.01113c23fa876a6f050ab84ef7b352b2.jpeg

7143438F-7965-4F8E-BE16-E2422FD2DBD4.thumb.jpeg.386ece3c7e11a9859494086ee55ba965.jpeg

My back yard before and after (some locals out in canoes checking on neighbours)

B15DD068-59C0-414D-BA0D-53BC3E39E4D6.thumb.jpeg.c6d4cfdeccab99f24ea69541ec580b1c.jpeg

My road 

6E52AE49-7598-4630-A20F-72B599FC260E.thumb.jpeg.cfd45d60e5b9aa80ed70ff6940b73f34.jpeg

My garage 

AE4DF231-095E-4598-9970-9A129E49C37C.thumb.jpeg.badd7785bc42e91934f509ab489df706.jpeg

When the sun came out...and waters started receeding. 

4C754A29-4FE7-456E-916B-8353CB3B7240.thumb.jpeg.2d8dc5d5cd3318c306db6ae04beff2f0.jpeg

E0CF645F-9313-490B-9F62-02B911C29F7D.thumb.jpeg.b986a986db18ec0983e49b3e67fc7924.jpeg

Canada Day 

C9B02EA2-C187-4301-B4B1-3FE0D175B031.thumb.jpeg.6765f6fe782fc78f82d9e0d596ceec59.jpeg

It was an unbelievable experience and one I’ll never forget.

yep remember this well i was living in  Calgary at the time..never forget the sight of concrete trucks floating down the Bow river when the Lafarge concrete plant was inundated and everything was washed away..we lost an entire tower crane again washed away on one of sites right downtown Calgary at the end of 4th street ..one of our clients lost his $1m house. On the upside i picked up my brand new car (Audi A4) that day although it then took me 6 hours to make the 5 mile journey home.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
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Storm approaching Kansas City it looks like. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
On 23/06/2021 at 17:55, CatchMyDrift said:

We've got some more hot weather coming, it's probably just as well we're at 1200m up as I don't fancy the end result of 30C+ 850hpa temps at lower altitude. The last screenshot is a list of max temps from previous years for context, it's likely to be close but no cigar for an all time record for here (36.5C):

834763773_Screenshot_20210623-104949_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.16fab67befbaf215a89982a3037a3805.jpg1083985775_Screenshot_20210623-104729_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.9bac66b7ebd84d56fbd82475c64b01a0.jpg1768914018_Screenshot_20210623-104635_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.2602bc5fc5b0559839e8d35d78290e04.jpg646451028_Screenshot_20210623-104550_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.a3fa2c541e7137358a15bcbe0b47b8d2.jpg

 

Yup the heatwave across the NW US early next week looks remarkable, a lot of records are going to be smashed.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Reed Timmer was aiming towards this yesterday as a target area, could get interesting but also messy, stay safe. 

Screenshot_20210625_110941_com.android.chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup the heatwave across the NW US early next week looks remarkable, a lot of records are going to be smashed.

Edmonton all time record is under threat with 38c now forecast for middle of next week...Calgary and Red Deer highs are forecast to be 2-3c lower ..not sure why as they are both further South so you would think they would be at least the same..must be proximity is closer to the Rockies

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

At the moment there’s a slight difference between the two main forecasts - government Canada (gov) forecasting record breaking heat Tuesday/Wednesday for places like Canmore, Calgary and Edmonton.

But the weather network (TWN) forecasting it one or two degrees cooler for some. Which is the difference between all time records being broken or not.

It’s going to be close. 

As it stands tonight the forecasts for mid week are:

Canmore: 37oC (TWN) 37oC (gov)

Calgary: 36oC (TWN) 38oC (gov)

Edmonton: 37oC (TWN) 38oC (gov)  

Its not too bad at the moment but once the nighttime heat starts that’s when it’s get uncomfortable for me. This is 2013 category for me when we unofficially hit 37oC in Canmore. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Photo from friends near Walton in Indiana last night. Apparently this one looked worse than it was and didn't do much damage.

F7808A41-DB33-4616-803A-B6C6B3EB9FBE.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
12 hours ago, Coopsy said:

At the moment there’s a slight difference between the two main forecasts - government Canada (gov) forecasting record breaking heat Tuesday/Wednesday for places like Canmore, Calgary and Edmonton.

But the weather network (TWN) forecasting it one or two degrees cooler for some. Which is the difference between all time records being broken or not.

It’s going to be close. 

As it stands tonight the forecasts for mid week are:

Canmore: 37oC (TWN) 37oC (gov)

Calgary: 36oC (TWN) 38oC (gov)

Edmonton: 37oC (TWN) 38oC (gov)  

Its not too bad at the moment but once the nighttime heat starts that’s when it’s get uncomfortable for me. This is 2013 category for me when we unofficially hit 37oC in Canmore. 

do you have have aircon?

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

do you have have aircon?

Nope - forced air 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Basement?

More like a crawl space lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
image.php?logo=0&playbutton=1&s=1&img=fJ
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Chucking quite a few Cgs into the sea

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Heatwave in and around Vancouver. Abbotsford a town close to the border of the US and BC in the lower mainland  has a current temp of 31C at 9am !   3 day forecast of temps of 100f  never achieved  before.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

I think we’re going to see records tumble locally over the next week. There’s an outside chance the 84 year old all time Canada record could go (45.0oC in Yellow Grass, SK - 1937)

Personally I’d favour the okanagan region for the record , if it happens. Kamloops has already broken their date record with 40.7oC. Kelowna and Vernon have broken date records too. Could all time records go by Thursday too? Quite possible. 

Osooyos is forecast to reach 46oC by the weather network, but environment Canada having none of it with a 42oC forecast. 

Edited by Coopsy
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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
4 hours ago, carinthian said:

Heatwave in and around Vancouver. Abbotsford a town close to the border of the US and BC in the lower mainland  has a current temp of 31C at 9am !   3 day forecast of temps of 100f  never achieved  before.

40C there now (Wikipedia says their record is 38C). 39.7C at Squamish is impressive.. 43.4C at Lytton!

image.thumb.png.2c80cba9d272bed7878ceb26087f7c6f.png

Interesting how varied temps are near the water e.g. around Victoria
image.thumb.png.77494f54dfe6f344c3d7d1ef1b5b2300.png

ECM going for 42C around Abbotsford today, and 44C tomorrow...

image.thumb.png.cc8c09f25a58da450c68074d68f13478.png
Down in Portland, Oregon (record 42C according to Wikipedia), it's 43C and the ECM is going for 44C today and 46/47C tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Ok, Environment Canada are also going for 44C in Abbotsford tomorrow, 42C in Squamish, even 41C in Whistler at 640m!

 

47C in Lytton on Tuesday!?! 

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Highest ever temperature record just broken for Canada at 46°C

 

 
 
There's an incredible 46°C temperature difference across Canada right now. I wonder how close to record breaking this is globally? 
 
cananahot.thumb.png.69be64064655a49d45a9a71a8e21888a.png

 

Edited by Stabilo19
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

What a day. Just looking at all the reports coming in and records have indeed tumbled already. As mentioned above the national record has been shattered. The final temperature in Lytton topped out at 46.6oC! 

Here’s a run down of all the daily and all time records that have been broken. 

National record: Lytton, B.C. (46.6°C)

Monthly records: Lytton, B.C. (46.6°C), Pemberton, B.C. (40.3°C), Abbotsford, B.C. (39.6°C), Hope, B.C. (39.5°C), Squamish, B.C. (39°C), Victoria, B.C. (35.8°C), Grande Prairie, Alta. (35.9°C), Yellowgrass, Sask. (45.0·C), Midale, Sask. (45.0°C)

All-time records: Pemberton, B.C (40.3°C), Abbotsford, B.C (39.6°C), Hope, B.C (39.5°C), Squamish, B.C (39°C), Yellowgrass, S.K. (45.0·C), Midale, S.K. (45.0°C)

Tuesday may well see the record broken again with Lytton forecasted to be 47oC. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
12 hours ago, carinthian said:

Heatwave in and around Vancouver. Abbotsford a town close to the border of the US and BC in the lower mainland  has a current temp of 31C at 9am !   3 day forecast of temps of 100f  never achieved  before.

Finally managed a max of 102f at 1600 in Abbotsford (39c) in the hottest spell ever recorded in British Columbia. 40c plus widely expected again today across BC. My son who has lived in Vancouver for the past 10 years informs me its an increasing pattern of each summer getting hotter phases. 

C

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Midnight temp in the small town of Ashcroft ( interior BC ) in Thompson County is 31c , was 33.3c at 2300hours !

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 hours ago, Coopsy said:

What a day. Just looking at all the reports coming in and records have indeed tumbled already. As mentioned above the national record has been shattered. The final temperature in Lytton topped out at 46.6oC! 

Here’s a run down of all the daily and all time records that have been broken. 

National record: Lytton, B.C. (46.6°C)

Monthly records: Lytton, B.C. (46.6°C), Pemberton, B.C. (40.3°C), Abbotsford, B.C. (39.6°C), Hope, B.C. (39.5°C), Squamish, B.C. (39°C), Victoria, B.C. (35.8°C), Grande Prairie, Alta. (35.9°C), Yellowgrass, Sask. (45.0·C), Midale, Sask. (45.0°C)

All-time records: Pemberton, B.C (40.3°C), Abbotsford, B.C (39.6°C), Hope, B.C (39.5°C), Squamish, B.C (39°C), Yellowgrass, S.K. (45.0·C), Midale, S.K. (45.0°C)

Tuesday may well see the record broken again with Lytton forecasted to be 47oC. 

Many of these areas as around the same latitude as much of Southern England. Only a matter of time before 40oC is breached there I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Many of these areas as around the same latitude as much of Southern England. Only a matter of time before 40oC is breached there I think.

I think it’s inevitable the way things are going 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
9 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

I think it’s inevitable the way things are going 

Global warming providing a powerful case towards climate change. Winters in Vancouver are over 3c warmer on average compared to the 1950s and summers now showing that sort of increase over the past decade. Extension of the exceptional  strong ridge and longevity of high pressure from the Western states of the USA pushing into British Columbia becoming a regular feature  and associated with increasing heat.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)

My brother is in Edmonton, Alberta and they are predicting 39c possibly higher on Wednesday. The record for Edmonton was 37.2c set on June 29th 1937, so it looks like that record will be easily beaten. 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
26 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Global warming providing a powerful case towards climate change. Winters in Vancouver are over 3c warmer on average compared to the 1950s and summers now showing that sort of increase over the past decade. Extension of the exceptional  strong ridge and longevity of high pressure from the Western states of the USA pushing into British Columbia becoming a regular feature  and associated with increasing heat.

C

It’s certainly accelerating at quite a rate. And on a side note this will have a rapid knock on effect for the decline in glaciers in western Canada. In just 15 years I’ve personally seen quite the retreat at the Columbia ice fields, which straddles Alberta and British Columbia. They estimate 70% retreat by the end of the century. At this rate that could be a lot sooner 

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