North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[Coopsy]

46 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Nah, I really like Canada but the plan had been to go back to Scotland for 2 weeks over Xmas to see my boys and the family and sort the rest of my stuff out. My old neighbours have a couple of boxes of mine and my car is in the multi-storey at Edinburgh Airport. As it stands I'll not be back for a while but that's probably for the best given that I then probably wouldn't get back to Canada.

I first encountered a proper blizzard (without the -30s) in Jan 2013 when I moved out to a relatively hilly part of the Borders. We had 40cm of snow and 65mph gusts, I made the mistake of popping out to the wood store to get some logs...and promptly choked on the drifting snow. Very easy to see why people die in a whiteout. 

As for the charts...maybe the GFS is onto something in the murky rumblings of FI?

That’s a shame you didn’t get to enjoy Christmas as planned. It’s looking more likely it’ll be late February at this rate and as you say it’ll be tough to get back in as well. 

You’re lucky you made it back from the wood store. It’s so disorientating isn’t it. it’s certainly a rare experience and you really appreciate and respect Mother Nature seeing her in all her fury. 

Hmmm you know what the GFS might well have sniffed something out there. The next few weeks are certainly going to be interesting for many areas across the NH. Probably warm for the UK

Edited January 5, 2021 by Coopsy

[Coopsy]

@CatchMyDriftyou may need your shorts by next week the way they keep upgrading the temps for Calgary...

[Coopsy]

34 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm not sure I'm getting the real Canada winter experience just yet...

Sunrise was gorgeous though:

I’d say it’s been a kind start to winter lol. 

Another great set of pics - I always find the sunrise/sunset looks better against a backdrop of snow

[Hairy Celt]

19 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm not sure I'm getting the real Canada winter experience just yet...

Sunrise was gorgeous though:

May be Canada doesn't escape global warming after all?

Our long-lasting northerly and north-easterly blast (which is just about to fizzle out) has been decidedly underwhelming compared to even 10 years ago.

[cheeky_monkey]

21 hours ago, Coopsy said:

I’d say it’s been a kind start to winter lol. 

Another great set of pics - I always find the sunrise/sunset looks better against a backdrop of snow

been the warmest/mildest start to winter in 10 years ..doesn't look like it will last looking at the latest models this morning

[Coopsy]

53 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

been the warmest/mildest start to winter in 10 years ..doesn't look like it will last looking at the latest models this morning

I was just reading this and also warmest start to January in 9 years for Edmonton. But I think you’re right ... things are looking set to change.

Until then a week of warm weather and then some much  more seasonal weather....

[cheeky_monkey]

25 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

I was just reading this and also warmest start to January in 9 years for Edmonton. But I think you’re right ... things are looking set to change.

Until then a week of warm weather and then some much  more seasonal weather....

has been a trend the last 4/5 years the first half of winter is warmer than the second..had some very cold weather Mid Jan - Mid April in recent years

Edited January 7, 2021 by cheeky_monkey

[Coopsy]

Fairly chilly this morning -13oC with wind chill touching -20oC 

A few more days of sub zero temps then spring arrives....for a while. 

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Aye it was certainly fairly fresh at 6am when I had mutley out for his morning constitutional, but the snow and ice was satisfyingly crunchy underfoot.

GFS is toying with some snow and rain for Wednesday but we'll see, in the meantime I can work on my tan The sun has already made a difference to my psoriasis. 

I bet you don’t mind walking the dog as much when there’s a daily threat of snow .

I love walking on the ‘creme brulee’ snow as I call it - that’s all soft underneath but a thick layer of crunchy snow/ice on top.

Funnily enough I’ve had a family member come over for a month and exactly the same happened for his psoriasis. Having suffered myself too that must be a relief. 

Oh and worst sun burn I’ve ever seen was in winter - on a friend who went ice fishing. Absolutely red as a beetroot. I tried not to snigger. 

As you say mid next week looks an interesting transition....upgrades maybe nearer the time 

[Coopsy]

So TWN is going for winter proper to start in Alberta by the end of January and locking in the really cold air throughout February.

If this happens then a real noticeable shift from what’s been quite a warm winter to bitterly cold will come as a shock. Minus 20/30’s  widely for southern Alberta and if the right set up forms then minus 40’s. Windchill will be an issue with any breeze.

Of course if the cold doesn’t back west that far it’s all a moot point and the cold will be modified. 

The jet stream is forecast to run through southern alberta but more from the north, so I’d imagine fast storms could well come through, such as the traditional  Alberta clipper, and drop 5-10cm’s. Less moisture so less accumulation. A change from the more moisture laden storms coming in from BC.

Until then a gradual cooling off looks likely but another few weeks of nice temps comparable to what could be around the corner. 

 

Pattern reversal ahead: Winter slowly returns to Canada

WWW.THEWEATHERNETWORK.COM

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Don't get complacent, we do expect a slow transition to more of a traditional winter pattern during the second half of January.

 

[Coopsy]

8 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Polar Vortex now collapsing, is set to release the Arctic Hounds for the United States and Europe, as we head for the second half of Winter 2020/2021

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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United States and Europe are in line for colder Winter weather dynamics, in the aftermath of the Polar Vortex breakdown in the stratosphere

I've noticed the Canadian Government's 7 day forecasts regularly start on the mild side but have a drop in temps the closer you get to the day:

 

I think you’re right it seems to be quite a regular occurrence. That mild spell has definitely been downgraded a lot.

I think TWN seem to have more moderated temps further out a lot of the time. 

Those colder temps are starting to show on TWN 14 day forecast....  

If you don’t mind me asking what’s the coldest you’ve experienced? (Not sure if you’ve been in Canada during a cold spell before?) 

[Coopsy]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm in for a fright when the real cold arrives although I have a healthy respect for anything past about -15C  so I will be careful. The coldest I have experienced outdoors is -20C at Glasgow Airport and I've also had the joy of working in walk-in freezers with massive fan systems at -22C. Fine for a minute but not the best after an hour despite protective clothing.

I’ll be interested to see what you think of minus 20/30 etc over here compared to the UK. I don’t find it too bad until it gets into about minus 25 and below territory because of the dry air. And it’s not a damp cold for me it’s a ‘feels like the skin is being peeled off your face cold’

My ‘oh it’s cold’ threshold is when I breath in through my nose and the hairs start to freeze lol. 

The lowest I’ve experienced is minus 42 but in the UK is only minus 10 so don’t have much to compare. 

This afternoon the weather will take a backseat for the TV and beers whilst I watch my beloved Bears win their wildcard game .....

Edited January 10, 2021 by Coopsy

[Coopsy]

18 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

@Coopsy something's coming on Wednesday after all, both the ECM and GFS pick this up now:

Aye that was a good shout you mentioned this last week. Looks like it’s firming up within the reliable timeframe. (Bears are losing so I’m focusing on the weather lol) 

it’ll be interesting to see where this takes us over the next day or so....

[Coopsy]

@CatchMyDriftOnly two days out and there’s some differing views on where the main snow will be. What’s your take on the models. The way I’m seeing it is:

The GFS is going for a snow event that looks set for Edmonton (after it’s made it’s way through Canmore) so going more north.

The ECM is taking the track further south and it’s a direct hit for Calgary.

TWN are forecasting 15-20cm for Canmore, 2-5cm for Calgary but the same for Edmonton so no idea what model they’re using

I’d have thought 10-15cm’s looks good for a direct hit and maybe weather warnings to pop up nearer the time - it’s just where. 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Coopsy said:

@CatchMyDriftOnly two days out and there’s some differing views on where the main snow will be. What’s your take on the models. The way I’m seeing it is:

The GFS is going for a snow event that looks set for Edmonton (after it’s made it’s way through Canmore) so going more north.

The ECM is taking the track further south and it’s a direct hit for Calgary.

TWN are forecasting 15-20cm for Canmore, 2-5cm for Calgary but the same for Edmonton so no idea what model they’re using

I’d have thought 10-15cm’s looks good for a direct hit and maybe weather warnings to pop up nearer the time - it’s just where. 

 

no snow forecast for Edmonton this week

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

no snow forecast for Edmonton this week

TWN downgraded already and only showing 1-3cm now for Edmonton so maybe it’s going to track south as per the ECM and come inline with the gov forecast. 

46 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It's wobbling a bit at the moment, one of the GFS runs yesterday looked a direct hit for both of us very much like the last snowstorm. This morning's looks ok for you but more debatable for me. Not sure I've seen too much suggesting that @cheeky_monkey is getting snow up in Edmonton in line with what he says above.

Are there any decent short-range models for here? We have a few we use back in Scotland like the Euro4 or WRF-NMM. 

To be honest between the models and the forecasts they’re all showing different so who knows

I only tend to look at GFS and ECM and cross reference to the TWN and gov forecasts. I’ve not found and decent local short term ones. Not saying there aren’t any though.

I’ve only just started getting into the models tbh though so not overly familiar/knowledgeable on them. 

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Coopsy

[Coopsy]

So 24 hours out and it looks like the forecasters are finally on the same page this morning.

As mentioned yesterday it looks like they’ve gone by the way of the GFS and pushed it further north to Edmonton. Big downgrades for here in Canmore as yesterday we had 20cm’s on the cards.

So as it’s stands forecasts are:

Canmore:

TWN: Rain turning to snow tomorrow afternoon - Approx 2cm of snow

GOV: Rain turning to snow - minimal snow 

Calgary:

TWN: Rain/snow mix - less than 1cm

GOV: Rain/snow mix - no accumulation 

Edmonton:

TWN: 2-4cm of snow

GOV: 2-4cm of snow 

[Coopsy]

11 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

GFS still has it over us but it's a rainy snowy mess?

Ah that makes sense the lower amounts are to temps and not location of precip. I must admit I hadn’t looked at the charts today. I just assumed the low rain/snowfall forecast amounts meant it was shifting.   

I think there might be a few surprises come tomorrow if it’s very much borderline. As the MOD thread often says, it’ll be a nowcasting day. 

I can’t say I remember too many times when I’ve used borderline for snow in January round these parts. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Coopsy

[Coopsy]

Nothing marginal about the snow this morning in Canmore...because it’s all rain.

All snow in Banff though....

[Coopsy]

5 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

@Coopsy this part of the Rockies is roughly out your way, although the mountains will look different from your perspective. It makes for an interesting outlook from the living room :

Just a shame about the pylons

At least the models are showing decent signs of proper winter heading our way by the end of next week:

I love that view from your living room. I often say I prefer the view of the mountains than being in them. It’s like looking at the Mona Lisa from the other side of the room rather than your nose touching the canvas - bigger sky, better sunsets.

My daughter would love the pylon view though - she has a weird infatuation with them

The charts are starting to tie in with the forecast we’ve been seeing for weeks now. Cold backing west and the jet stream running from NW to SE right through us. Fun times ahead!

Edited January 15, 2021 by Coopsy

[Coopsy]

12 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

My eldest had a huge thing for pylons when he was younger, a real obsession and he even had categories and rankings for them.

We have had an incredible sunny day here after yesterday's dross:

 

That’s good to hear - thought she was becoming a weirdo child lol. 

Cracking  shots - they really show how deep blue the sky gets in winter. There’s three things I never get bored of - mountains, blue skies and sunsets. Oh and I’ll add to the that Canadian wildlife too. 

[Coopsy]

The big numbers are starting to show now in the 7 day forecast...

[Coopsy]

Fascinating place Drumheller. Did you find any fossils? 

I think we’ll finally see a change to the overall weather pattern this week. It looks like a clipper will form as a high builds in over BC region. I’d expect high winds from the Rockies down through Calgary probably strongest around Tuesday am into pm as the down-sloping winds kick in. Maybe 100km/h - no doubt warnings will be issued soon.

Then as the high moves into BC, the clipper will move from NW to SE through the prairies on a strong jet stream, and then a change to an arctic airflow. Not looking overly cold by Canadian standards but still noticeably colder. 

The snow from the clipper affecting more SK and east. I think Edmonton might get a quick few cm’s from it, being on the fringe of it.  

Then the temps only go one way from there....time to dig out the winter clothes.

 

[Coopsy]

I was starting to second guess my wind forecast as I went to bed last night and there were no warnings. Woke up and half of Alberta is now under a wind warning. 

I think Edmonton out of range for any real snow from this clipper so north and east of Alberta likely and then on into SK and beyond.

After that pretty dry for the foreseeable and colder. Looking at Monday as the next possible snowmaker as a low comes into BC and comes up against the high. 

 

 

[Coopsy]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

At least the sunrises & sunsets are spectacular here cos the weather is a snoozefest at the moment...

You can never get bored of that view and those sunsets. Are you missing the rain? Lol. I know what you mean though. It’s been pretty benign but perfect ice fishing weather though.  (before the wind) 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Coopsy