North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[Yarmy]

Love these photos:

http://time.com/3596433/buffalo-snow-storm-aerial-photos/

Number 3 especially. Seriously, mate, why bother?

[Airedalejoe]

Hi guys can someone who knows how to look at this help me. I am off to Orlando in 3 weeks from the 14th December. To  my untrained eye it looks like a warm sub tropical airmass is being pushed down from the mid states by the advancing cold into Florida just at the right time for me. is this right?

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-through-mid-december/

 

I also assume its going mean warmer but wetter weather? If so what temps could be expected?? Please help thanks

Its down to the luck of the draw I'm afraid, you could get temps of mid even high 20's and sunshine or colder temps and showers. I noticed that Orlando mid afternoon a couple of days ago was 12C, I've been there in December in 13C and rain but also in 25C and beautiful blue skies for days on end. Fingers crossed and one thing is certain, it'll be better than here!!

[Roger J Smith]

Totally disagree with the second post back, of course you would expect heavier snowfalls in a naturally cooling climate and that is what we have been seeing, certainly in North America. This is simply a return to the harsher winter regime that was in place around the late 1970s and early 1980s.

 

Nuri had absolutely no part in this at all, the circulation went into a high amplitude pattern and Nuri had to follow. It was not a particularly intense tropical cyclone anyway, just became a strong extra-tropical low in a region that often sees very low pressures.

 

I think the AGW lobby are grasping at straws and trying to keep their grant money flowing in the face of increasingly hostile public and therefore (eventually, slow process) political reaction.

 

As to what's going on this week, the southern half of the Buffalo metropolitan area is now under a crushing blanket of 5-8 feet of snow, while the northern half is under 1-3 feet. It continues to snow heavily in the "south towns" which is the local name for all the various suburbs such as Cheektowaga, Lancaster, Alden, Hamburg etc, and all the way south to the hills around Jamestown and Olean NY where they have some ski hills that must be loving this base. Other residents must be praying that their roofs hold when milder temperatures, rain and strong winds arrive on Monday.

 

I would expect that about half the core snow will melt, and all the snow in areas with less than 24" on the ground will see a total thaw by late Monday. That will result in some stream flooding but perhaps more serious, some vast urban ponding issues in the south towns where it's just physically impossible for that much snow to run off in three days. Plus with snow plow operations in parking lots, a lot of drains will be under huge 20-30 ft piles of snow. You can just imagine the scene by late Monday after a day with 15 C temps and half an inch or more of rain. News coverage shows some collapsed roofs already, but lots of people on their roofs shovelling huge piles off (it doesn't have far to fall in most cases). Since this is a lake effect snow belt, most of the houses were constructed with sharp angled roofs but a lot of  the newer commercial and industrial construction involves flat roofs. Those will become very heavily weighted down when rain falls into the snow.

 

Somewhat less dramatic but very heavy snows have fallen north of Toronto and London ON (2-4 feet in many places) and in western lower Michigan (1-2 feet). These will also begin to melt on Sunday-Monday but issues won't be as severe, partly because of lower temperatures and partly because this snow will compact under the first wave of freezing rain.

 

As to whether or not this is unprecedented, not really, the Jan 1977 "Buffalo Blizzard" had comparable amounts, and other lake effect areas have seen this kind of snowfall in previous years. A few years back, there was about 10 feet of snow in two days in a band between London and Strathroy in southwestern ON (northerly winds off Lake Huron in that case). I have seen 3.5 feet in two days myself, in a storm in April 1975 that was one-third synoptic scale and two-thirds lake effect. That snow was then piled into alternating eight foot drifts and bare spots by strong winds, and the whole mess froze solid because of the freeze-thaw cycle in the strong April sun that followed (although it remained below freezing). It took three weeks for all that to melt away. I can also remember seeing the aftermath of eight feet of snow in Jan 1976 in London ON, they had to go around the city and place fifteen foot poles with flags on them to locate fire hydrants under the drifts.

 

One problem for assessing cause and effect is that we have better temperature than snowfall records from snow belt areas in the colder 19th century. We really don't know how frequent these mega-squalls were in years that had lower average temps, but the synoptic scale snowfalls were 50-100 per cent higher (Toronto for example used to average 70-75 inches a winter in the 1860s and 1870s, nowadays more like 40-45).

[knocker]

Unraveling the mysteries of deadly 'firehose' lake-effect snow events

http://mashable.com/2014/11/20/lake-effect-snow-mysteries/

[Dorsetbred]

Incredible aerial shots from Buffalo News today

http://galleries.buffalonews.com/default.aspx?id=3291#/0

[knocker]

Medium-Range Model Madness Continues! But ECMWF ensembles are starting to trend in favor of the GFS.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Totally disagree with the second post back, of course you would expect heavier snowfalls in a naturally cooling climate and that is what we have been seeing, certainly in North America. This is simply a return to the harsher winter regime that was in place around the late 1970s and early 1980s.

 

Nuri had absolutely no part in this at all, the circulation went into a high amplitude pattern and Nuri had to follow. It was not a particularly intense tropical cyclone anyway, just became a strong extra-tropical low in a region that often sees very low pressures.

 

I think the AGW lobby are grasping at straws and trying to keep their grant money flowing in the face of increasingly hostile public and therefore (eventually, slow process) political reaction.

 

Errrr, global cooling? This year is likely to be the warmest on record by most measures, despite no official El Nino. There is no sign of global cooling at all.

 

 

 

As for the US, no sign of cooling there either.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us

 

 

There's clutching at straws and then there's clutching at thin air and telling everyone around you that you're holding a rope. 

 

Some ill informed folk have been quite hostile for a long time, just as many creationists are still hostile toward evolution, or anti vaxxers towards the medical profession. The number of frustrated people says nothing about the science though.

[Hocus Pocus]

Errrr, global cooling? This year is likely to be the warmest on record by most measures, despite no official El Nino. There is no sign of global cooling at all.

 

 

 

As for the US, no sign of cooling there either.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us

 

 

There's clutching at straws and then there's clutching at thin air and telling everyone around you that you're holding a rope. 

 

Some ill informed folk have been quite hostile for a long time, just as many creationists are still hostile toward evolution, or anti vaxxers towards the medical profession. The number of frustrated people says nothing about the science though.

The satellite data is at odds with a few of the land based ones though,

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

[keithlucky]

Errrr, global cooling? This year is likely to be the warmest on record by most measures, despite no official El Nino. There is no sign of global cooling at all.

 

 

 

As for the US, no sign of cooling there either.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us

 

 

There's clutching at straws and then there's clutching at thin air and telling everyone around you that you're holding a rope. 

 

Some ill informed folk have been quite hostile for a long time, just as many creationists are still hostile toward evolution, or anti vaxxers towards the medical profession. The number of frustrated people says nothing about the science though.

Ice forces early closure ever  of upper Mississippi, action speaks louder than fudged data http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-mississippi-river-minnesota-idUSKCN0J400320141120?feedType=RSS&feedName=environmentNews

Edited November 21, 2014 by keithlucky

[ANYWEATHER]

Errrr, global cooling? This year is likely to be the warmest on record by most measures, despite no official El Nino. There is no sign of global cooling at all.

 

 

 

As for the US, no sign of cooling there either.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us

 

 

There's clutching at straws and then there's clutching at thin air and telling everyone around you that you're holding a rope. 

 

Some ill informed folk have been quite hostile for a long time, just as many creationists are still hostile toward evolution, or anti vaxxers towards the medical profession. The number of frustrated people says nothing about the science though.

Please can you keep your comments to the climate and environment thread . There you can rightly post if you believe in global cooling or warming and not clutter up this thread .Thankyou.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Please can you keep your comments to the climate and environment thread . There you can rightly post if you believe in global cooling or warming and not clutter up this thread .Thankyou.

 

Does that apply to all the other climate related comments here? Please feel free to delete all climate related posts here. I would love for this thread to just be about North American weather, honestly.

I only respond because when somebody posts flat out lies in order to try discredit a branch of science, those posts shouldn't be allowed to stand unchallenged. I've reported similar posts in the past, but nothing was done.

 

 

The satellite data is at odds with a few of the land based ones though,

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

 

Nope, October was the joint warmest on record, and this year is likely to be the 3rd warmest, even with the UAH data. 

The UAH satellite temp trend is just as strong in recent years as the ground based ones (not to mention that Dr Roy Spencer is a creationist that signed a declaration stating stating that God will not allow us to alter the climate, so it's best to look at the actual data, not his take on it...)

UAH Temperature data:

 

 

 

----------------------------------- ---------------------------- --------------------------------- ----------------------- ------------------------

 

There are several different climate threads for most people to explore in the climate and environment area here https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/105-climate-and-environment/

One for global temperatures and trends https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77068-global-surface-air-temperature-current-conditions-and-future-prospects/

One for climate "sceptics" https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80838-sceptical-about-climate-change-reasons-and-opinion/

One for those that believe the science https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80837-man-made-climate-change-exists-reasons-and-opinion/

 

Hopefully any further climate discussion can take place in the appropriate area, so we can sit back in awe at the amazing scenes coming out of the US!

[Summer Sun]

Now this is some serious amounts of snow

 

 

If that was the UK you'd get a fine and 3 points / a court appearance

[PolarWarsaw]

Chance of another lake effect on a lesser scale next weekend in Buffalo and surrounding areas!

[knocker]

Chance of another lake effect on a lesser scale next weekend in Buffalo and surrounding areas!

 

I'm surprised to here that as they were going for another nor'easter but it's now further east.

[Summer Sun]

Buffalo could hit 18c by Monday so a rapid snow melt looks likely with some heavy rain from Wednesday it looks like they'll be getting colder again with some snow
 

[knocker]

Two charts of interest. There could be a few feet of snow in the Cascades the next three days as moist air encroaches off the Pacific. Plus some more snow for the lakes. And wil there be a nor'easter later in the week?

Edited November 22, 2014 by knocker

[Hocus Pocus]

Does that apply to all the other climate related comments here? Please feel free to delete all climate related posts here. I would love for this thread to just be about North American weather, honestly.

I only respond because when somebody posts flat out lies in order to try discredit a branch of science, those posts shouldn't be allowed to stand unchallenged. I've reported similar posts in the past, but nothing was done.

 

 

 

Nope, October was the joint warmest on record, and this year is likely to be the 3rd warmest, even with the UAH data. 

The UAH satellite temp trend is just as strong in recent years as the ground based ones (not to mention that Dr Roy Spencer is a creationist that signed a declaration stating stating that God will not allow us to alter the climate, so it's best to look at the actual data, not his take on it...)

UAH Temperature data:

 

 

 

----------------------------------- ---------------------------- --------------------------------- ----------------------- ------------------------

 

There are several different climate threads for most people to explore in the climate and environment area here https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/105-climate-and-environment/

One for global temperatures and trends https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77068-global-surface-air-temperature-current-conditions-and-future-prospects/

One for climate "sceptics" https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80838-sceptical-about-climate-change-reasons-and-opinion/

One for those that believe the science https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80837-man-made-climate-change-exists-reasons-and-opinion/

 

Hopefully any further climate discussion can take place in the appropriate area, so we can sit back in awe at the amazing scenes coming out of the US!

So a man who belives in God isn't to be trusted, I've heard some nonsense before BFTV but what a persons beliefs are has nothing to do with their work as a scientist, and this is why I avoid climate threads like the plague as both sides are so entrenched in their ideas. Anyway that's enough on this subject as I don't want any further debate on the matter.

[knocker]

So a man who belives in God isn't to be trusted, I've heard some nonsense before BFTV but what a persons beliefs are has nothing to do with their work as a scientist, and this is why I avoid climate threads like the plague as both sides are so entrenched in their ideas. Anyway that's enough on this subject as I don't want any further debate on the matter.

 

That's a pity because you would be a valued addition to one side of the discussion given your ability to misquote a persons post as below.

 

 

So a man who belives in God isn't to be trusted, I've heard some nonsense before

 

BFTV did not say that and you know it so I can only assume it is a deliberate misrepresentation.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

That's a pity because you would be a valued addition to one side of the discussion given your ability to misquote a persons post as below.

 

 

BFTV did not say that and you know it so I can only assume it is a deliberate misrepresentation.

So why (if he was not trying to mislead) did he even raise the subject?

MIA

[knocker]

 

So why (if he was not trying to mislead) did he even raise the subject?

MIA

 

Sorry is that meant to be a reply to my post? If so you have lost me. I was merely pointing out HP's deliberate misrepresentation.

[Gael_Force]

[knocker]

I agree. All climate related posts should be snipped at source.

[ANYWEATHER]

Again ,can we please keep on topic. Thankyou.

[Martin R]

Great thunder snow video just posted by Reed Timmer from TVNweather

 

[knocker]

The low pressure centered over Great Lakes may set November barometric pressure records in Michigan. And hey ho a slight change of temp in the north east.

Charts weatherbell.com