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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Morning Roger and WhiteFox

Last night i found out from the wife where here Cousin lives, they live in St Catherines

Nigel

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Plains storm season starting early this year http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif :

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

... chance of a severe outbreak over the SE plains on Monday and Tuesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Nigel, St Catherines is in Ontario near the U.S. border, in fact it is close to Buffalo and Niagara Falls. They get a certain amount of lake effect there but it's a wine-growing region due to protection from severe frosts due to nearby Lake Ontario.

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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London

If the BBC 5 day forecast is to be believed then tomorrow's predicted maximum for Ottawa of 15c would set a new record for January (or indeed any winter month). The average January maximum is -6c and the previous record is 12c.

regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This forecast for Ottawa may have neglected the feedback from melting snow, as the temperature there stalled at 7 C so far. At Toronto it is currently 14 C, probably a date record but I recall it being 19 C a few years ago, and 16 C in 1967.

Michigan has reported several daily records as well, all in the range of 16-17 C, once again, not quite monthly records which sit around 19 C.

This warm spell has a couple more days to run, but where there was heavy snow last week, it has not all melted yet and this is creating a shallow fog over the surface and holding temperatures down to 8-10 C tops. Readings above 12 C in the winter require a snow-free surface in this region.

Isolated severe thunderstorms by tomorrow through the Ohio valley and lower Mississippi too.

Meanwhile, it keeps turning cold and snowing around here. Not much at my place today, but a few miles away and a bit higher up, 15 cms and traffic chaos (unlike the rest of Canada, people here have almost no idea how to drive in snow, we can pretty much expect chaos after the first cm or two). :unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

watching fox news those tornado's must be rare this time of year

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Posted
  • Location: New Brunswick, Canada
  • Location: New Brunswick, Canada

If the BBC 5 day forecast is to be believed then tomorrow's predicted maximum for Ottawa of 15c would set a new record for January (or indeed any winter month). The average January maximum is -6c and the previous record is 12c.

regards

ACB

Hi,

I can confirm that the BBCs prediction was correct. We went on a road trip and we were at Niagara yesterday and it was warm and almost sultry with the spray from the falls. We felt like right prats as we only brought along our winter coats and boots. The falls were lovely though.

Nearly all the snow has gone from Toronto and heading back East, we are presently between Montreal and Quebec, the temps and at 5c and there still snow around but not as much as when we passed through on Friday/Saturday.

TTFN

Debs

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Hi,

I can confirm that the BBCs prediction was correct. We went on a road trip and we were at Niagara yesterday and it was warm and almost sultry with the spray from the falls. We felt like right prats as we only brought along our winter coats and boots. The falls were lovely though.

Nearly all the snow has gone from Toronto and heading back East, we are presently between Montreal and Quebec, the temps and at 5c and there still snow around but not as much as when we passed through on Friday/Saturday.

TTFN

Debs

Only a brief blowtorch, but very high temperatures indeed; enough to decimate the snowpack across Upstate New York and New England. There is nearly always something of a thaw in January even in normal/below normal years, but nothing like this and usually a bit later in the month. Anyway, temperatures return to near normal by the weekend.

Just to illustrate how extreme this weather is, Burlington, VT did not rise above -13oC last Thursday; today's maximum was 18oC beating the previous date record by 7oC, but falling 1o short of the January record. For New York last Thursday was -6oC, today was also 18oC beating the date record by 4o but 3o short of the January record which was equalled last year.

By the weekend NYC looks like being around 3oC, which is average, and Burlington -1oC by Sunday.

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Some photos of tornado damage in Boone County Illinois.

Rated EF3 where these photos were taken.

Luckily it missed my house in Harvard by 1 1/2 miles!!!.

The third photo with the red van in the background between the two trees...there used to be a house there!!!

Link to writeup of storm plus a map http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=20080107tor#pns

post-3104-1199919790_thumb.jpg

post-3104-1199919861_thumb.jpg

post-3104-1199919899_thumb.jpg

Edited by acrossthepond
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great pics mate you where very lucky, where these from the tornados the other day?

yeah these were from Monday afternoon...first January tornado in the area since 1950. Just a week ago the temp was -20c then Monday it reached 16c, then a tornado...now 3 inches of snow expected tomorrow
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Some photos of tornado damage in Boone County Illinois.

Rated EF3 where these photos were taken.

Luckily it missed my house in Harvard by 1 1/2 miles!!!.

The third photo with the red van in the background between the two trees...there used to be a house there!!!

Link to writeup of storm plus a map http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=20080107tor#pns

that last one is pretty frightening after reading it was a house!

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

that last one is pretty frightening after reading it was a house!

Pretty amazing things. Makes you wonder why they insist on building houses from matchsticks (ok, I'm exaggerating, but all houses are timber over here).

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Pretty amazing things. Makes you wonder why they insist on building houses from matchsticks (ok, I'm exaggerating, but all houses are timber over here).

Yeah, my house is timber with aluminum siding so if the tornado had tracked a mile or 2 further south I shudder to think what would have been left!!
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Yeah, my house is timber with aluminum siding so if the tornado had tracked a mile or 2 further south I shudder to think what would have been left!!

I'm down in Texas at the moment and passed a construction site on my way to the hotel; a large five story building, all made of timber!

Anyway, pattern change definitely on the way now for the Midwest and NE US.

The current surface pressure chart shows a low pressure system off the West Coast slightly further north than recent systems.

post-1957-1200005216_thumb.png

Over the past week a succession of systems have passed over Washington state or even a bit further south bringing the heavy snow to the Californian mountains and much needed rain to the whole state. As the same time the South Eastern ridge held sway and pumped in some very mild and humid air resulting in the record temperatures and severe weather in the Midwest and North East.

As the jet stream shifts position we see the systems pushing in further north. We need to see a ridge forming over the west coast and a trough pushing further east to encourage colder air to flood the rest of the US. Storm systems from the Pacific ride up the Western side of the ridge and come over the top, descending South East over the CONUS. This draws down the coldest Canadian air.

Looking ahead to next Wednesday, we see just such a situation:

post-1957-1200005651_thumb.png

Note the strong blocking high preventing any systems from riding through the West Coast and drawing up warm air. Instead we see a system approaching from Canada which brings some of the coldest air of the season so far into the Midwest.

post-1957-1200005770_thumb.png

By next Friday we such much of the interior CONUS bathed in very cold air:

post-1957-1200005951_thumb.png

With the freezing line extending across the whole of OK and the panhandle of TX:

post-1957-1200006020_thumb.png

The interesting feature of this set up is the the southern jet remains alive and pumps some energy to the south of the blocking high pressure:

post-1957-1200006088_thumb.png

This could provide the necessary ingredients for snow events further down the line. Energy coming across southern Texas and skirting the Gulf states can often transfer to the Coast and phase with energy from the north to produce a Nor'Easter and heavy snow for the big cities. Much more interesting than record high temperatures!

Ensembles for Chicago:

post-1957-1200006286_thumb.png

And New York:

post-1957-1200006309_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

there are lots of people on this site that would give anything, well almost anything, to see an ensemble like either of those for ANYWHERE in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

there are lots of people on this site that would give anything, well almost anything, to see an ensemble like either of those for ANYWHERE in the UK.

It's an interesting parallel with last year. I happen to have an ensemble chart from January 9th 2007 for Chicago:

post-1957-1200011173_thumb.png

El Niño/La Niña, Quelle difference?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

And whats even more depressing is that your showing charts for next Wednesday,which will almost certainly come off.

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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl

I'm after a bit of help. I'm off to New Jersey next Sunday (20th) and not sure what to pack - crampons and arctic gear or short sleeves and slacks http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif . Any ideas?

Edited by memories of 63
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

I'm after a bit of help. I'm off to New Jersey next Sunday (20th) and not sure what to pack - crampons and arctic gear or short sleeves and slacks http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif . Any ideas?

Depends where in Jersey you're going and how long you'll be spending outside. If you're talking about interior New Jersey then I'm not joking when I say you'll need thermals if you are spending any time outside. I also recommend dressing in layers; if you can a fleece on top of a jumper with an outer shield of windproof and waterproof material, plus a hat, gloves and if you can, something to keep your ears warm. There is still a large amount of uncertainty as to how cold it will be at that range (there is a 25oC spread for the 22nd) and it is not possible to see how windy it will be. Suffice to say, the coldest weather comes with a brisk North Westerly wind so keep an eye on the weather from Monday onwards!

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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl

Depends where in Jersey you're going and how long you'll be spending outside. If you're talking about interior New Jersey then I'm not joking when I say you'll need thermals if you are spending any time outside. I also recommend dressing in layers; if you can a fleece on top of a jumper with an outer shield of windproof and waterproof material, plus a hat, gloves and if you can, something to keep your ears warm. There is still a large amount of uncertainty as to how cold it will be at that range (there is a 25oC spread for the 22nd) and it is not possible to see how windy it will be. Suffice to say, the coldest weather comes with a brisk North Westerly wind so keep an eye on the weather from Monday onwards!

Many thanks WF I'm actually going to Summit which is about 20 miles west of Newark. I'll be spending most of the time indoors but have to go outside for a fag cigarette http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif so I'll pack some thermals.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

Just to keep an interest in other countries weather i use accuweather for USA.A chap called Joe laminate floori did a winter forecast in which he stated that the USA winter this year would be cold to start and cold to finish with above average temperatures in between this begs 2 questions as more cold weather floods in next week.Is Accuweather a decent site and second point does Mr laminate floori have a decent historical track record.Many thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Just to keep an interest in other countries weather i use accuweather for USA.A chap called Joe laminate floori did a winter forecast in which he stated that the USA winter this year would be cold to start and cold to finish with above average temperatures in between this begs 2 questions as more cold weather floods in next week.Is Accuweather a decent site and second point does Mr laminate floori have a decent historical track record.Many thanks.

You mean JB? He actually called a winter cancel before December and said that the clipper system would be the only snow the NE saw the whole season. He has backtracked on that as it looks like a bad call.

Every other year he always screams 'blizzard'! Normally I'd call him a cold ramper. He certainly enjoys the cold, so he's usually a good read. I doubt his record is any better than any other long range forecaster though...

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

Looks like we might see some interesting weather over the Prairies come next week. POssible storm brewing with snow due for this region for the first time in many weeks

Then once the low moves through, it looks set for the east side of the High pressure to drad down some very cold artic air, could be some minus 30's around, if not colder

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Also looking at the potential for some snow in NYC Sunday into Monday. This storm has been monitored all week and for once it looks like producing:

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.080114T0200Z- 080114T1700Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- BERGEN- EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON- UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)- QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- 410 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS... DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE STORM TAKES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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