September CET

[summer blizzard]

Tinybill: 11C

Stormchaser1: 12.6C

SteveB: 13C

Snowmaiden: 13.1C

Snowprincess: 13.3C

Cheeky_monkey: 13.4C

Optimus Prime: 13.5C

Steve Murr: 13.5C

Mr Sleet: 13.5C

Hiya: 13.6C

Viking141: 13.6C

Snowyowl9: 13.7C

Beng: 13.8C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 13.9C

The Abominable Snowman: 13.9C

Snowsure: 13.9C

Bottesford: 14C

Snowman2006: 14C

Ian Brown: 14C

Stargazer: 14.1C

kold weather: 14.2C

Jackone: 14.2C

Hammer: 14.2C

Shuggee 14.3C

Mr Maunder: 14.3C

Windswept: 14.4C

Anti-Mild: 14.4C

Nick F: 14.4C

Tugmistress: 14.4C

Wilson: 14.5C

PhilipEden: 14.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 14.5C

Stratos Ferric: 14.6C

Northern Light: 14.6C

Cymru: 14.6C

Bham Chris: 14.7C

Stricklands: 14.7C

ScandiHigh: 14.7C

Senior ridge: 14.7C

Great Plum: 14.8C

Steve M: 14.8C

AtmosFear: 14.9C

Terminal Moraine: 14.9C

Glacier Point: 14.9C

Scribbler: 14.9C

Roger J Smith: 15C

Blast From The Past: 15.1C

West Is Best: 15.1C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

Timmy H: 15.2C

Summer of 95: 15.2C

Reef: 15.3C

Scorcher: 15.4C

The PIT: 15.5C

Thundery wintry showers: 15.5C

Rollo: 15.6C

Kippure: 16C

Please can all CET predictions be in by midnight tommorow.

Edited September 4, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Thundery wintry showers]

15.5C.

:blush:

[West is Best]

Been away a lot so here's my punt for the month:

15.1C

[VillagePlank]

As an idea (and I know it'll be a lot of work someone) why don't we do a running scoreline; you could post: Username/CET's predicted/1/10thC total error.

We can see who guesses best, then!

[Snowly does it]

As an idea (and I know it'll be a lot of work someone) why don't we do a running scoreline; you could post: Username/CET's predicted/1/10thC total error.

We can see who guesses best, then!

Oh no! I like a competition and I'd be forced to go higher than my churlish inclinations.

[WindWatcher]

15.0 for me please.

My average in Totton so far this month is 18.5, it's been glorious. Although I see some low mins coming up that might make my guess far too optimistic.

[tesaro]

I'll have a punt at 13.6 for the simple reason i got to be right sometime. ish.

[Stratos Ferric]

I can't help noticing that the seven people on the list whose noms de keyboard include "snow" (in all forms), plus Messers Kold and anti-mild are all projecting CETs well below the median in the list. Does our name suggest an inherent preference (it would be strange were it not to as a rule) which then influences our judgment? Summer Blizzard carefuly chooses a name which is dual gendered so he wins either way. TWS bucks the trend - though we should expect nothing less. The same pattern seems to be true for the warm monikers as well.

15.0 for me please.

...Although I see some low mins coming up that might make my guess far too optimistic.

You obviously aren't looking in the same place as me then! I'm starting to regret not following my hunch rather than the stats. I was certainly expecting things to settle down, but at present we are pointed more in the direction of July than August in terms of relative outcome. Still, lots of time to change.

[Skiwi]

Hi hope im not butting in. Just joined. I'll say 15.1

[stormchaser1]

so far after 5 days my average for the north east is reading 17.23c

the difference for which it should read is +3.73c so far .

The warmest September in the last 10 years for the north east was back in 2002 ,where 13.75c was recorded, the coldest was last year at just 11c

nigel

[summer blizzard]

Tinybill: 11C

Stormchaser1: 12.6C

SteveB: 13C

Snowmaiden: 13.1C

Snowprincess: 13.3C

Cheeky_monkey: 13.4C

Optimus Prime: 13.5C

Steve Murr: 13.5C

Mr Sleet: 13.5C

Hiya: 13.6C

Viking141: 13.6C

Tesaro: 13.6C

Snowyowl9: 13.7C

Beng: 13.8C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 13.9C

The Abominable Snowman: 13.9C

Snowsure: 13.9C

Bottesford: 14C

Snowman2006: 14C

Ian Brown: 14C

Stargazer: 14.1C

kold weather: 14.2C

Jackone: 14.2C

Hammer: 14.2C

Shuggee 14.3C

Mr Maunder: 14.3C

Windswept: 14.4C

Anti-Mild: 14.4C

Nick F: 14.4C

Tugmistress: 14.4C

Wilson: 14.5C

PhilipEden: 14.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 14.5C

Stratos Ferric: 14.6C

Northern Light: 14.6C

Cymru: 14.6C

Bham Chris: 14.7C

Stricklands: 14.7C

ScandiHigh: 14.7C

Senior ridge: 14.7C

Great Plum: 14.8C

Steve M: 14.8C

AtmosFear: 14.9C

Terminal Moraine: 14.9C

Glacier Point: 14.9C

Scribbler: 14.9C

Roger J Smith: 15C

WindWatcher: 15C

Blast From The Past: 15.1C

West Is Best: 15.1C

Skiwi: 15.1C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

Timmy H: 15.2C

Summer of 95: 15.2C

Reef: 15.3C

Scorcher: 15.4C

The PIT: 15.5C

Thundery wintry showers: 15.5C

Rollo: 15.6C

Kippure: 16C

For anybody who has not made a CET prediction yet, i am afraid it is too late to make one, doing so would give an unfair advantage.

A CET prediction league would be a good idea, you could get one point for being within 0.5C of the final figure and three points for predicting the actual figure and we could use the CET threads in the archive section as well, as they date back to January.

Metcheck has the current CET as 17.4C, and Netweather has the CET at 17.7C.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think that this warm September weather could well be nailing the coffin for a cold winter this year. In my view, a warm September is rarely followed by a cold winter, and historically this goes. A warm (14+CET) September is nearly always followed by a milder than average winter.

One point I will make is that it does not always work the other way round (Cool September = Cold winter). What I will say that whilst it is not uncommon for the winter to be mild after a cool September, it is extremely rare for winter to be cold after a warm September. The only exception to this theory I can think of was in 1985, and also that October was very dry, blocked and warm.

Whilst a cool or even average September in my view does not have much link to the following winter, there is certainly a link that a warm September is rarely followed by a cold winter.

[Nick H]

The only exception to this theory I can think of was in 1985, and also that October was very dry, blocked and warm. A warm (14+CET) September is nearly always followed by a milder than average winter.

October 1985 was only warm at the beginning, it ended up a pretty average month.

And September 1978 - a warm month and part of the mildest autumn on record - was followed by a very cold winter. September 1981 was also reasonably warm (14.5) and look what happened that winter. September 1946 finished at 14.0C, and there followed another cold winter. Not sure your theory about warm Septembers has a leg to stand on.

Edited September 6, 2006 by Nick H

[Duane S.]

I think that this warm September weather could well be nailing the coffin for a cold winter this year. In my view, a warm September is rarely followed by a cold winter, and historically this goes. A warm (14+CET) September is nearly always followed by a milder than average winter.

Now that really is a first, winter being written off before the middle of September Words fail me sometimes.....

[Snowyowl9]

I`ve found in recent years that a cold october is followed by a mild winter.

It`s just speculation saying things like this.

S9

[frozen_north]

I`ve found in recent years that a cold october is followed by a mild winter.

It`s just speculation saying things like this.

S9

We had quotes like that last autumn. Infact we had every kind of hot/cold September/October followed by a mild/cold winter suggestions.

[Stratos Ferric]

I`ve found in recent years that a cold october is followed by a mild winter.

It`s just speculation saying things like this.

S9

S9,

In recent years you could take pretty much any month in any year and any extreme you want and conclude that it was followed by a mild winter. I think sometimes on here people look for correlations, without testing for false negatives and false positives as well. There are very few, if any, hard and fast trends from month to month - not least because the weather has never quite got around to organising itself into neat thirty day packets.

There is probably better predictive potential in rolling averages, and this is to be expected because within the measured medium term extremes weather tends not to lurch wildly, for all the recent swing from July-August. Therefore, if you're in a warm cycle overall, the odds are that what you get is warm.

This winter is likely to be milder than the long term norm, though note that in recent winters thre has been a trend to late blocking, so something cooler and drier in the second half can't be ruled out, and it would be an unusual winter indeed that did not produce one or two short cold spells with or without this blocking.

[Snowyowl9]

We had quotes like that last autumn. Infact we had every kind of hot/cold September/October followed by a mild/cold winter suggestions.

That`s what I mean it`s pointless saying things like this,a warm september meaning a mild winter,the weather is very fickle it doesn`t go by any rules.

That`s why I love it so much it`s the one thing that humans can`t beat.

SF to be honest no one knows what this winter will bring exactly, but it`s an interesting point you make.

As far as this month It may well end up a warmer than previously thought if these southerlies come back.

S9.

Edited September 6, 2006 by Snowyowl9

[Weather-history]

I think that this warm September weather could well be nailing the coffin for a cold winter this year.

Here we go.

You'll never learn, you were banned from The WeatherOutlook Forum for these type of posts, saying the coming winter was over during August was absolutely ridiculous. :blink:

[summer blizzard]

Read my post in the winter section R.E. CET combinations and winter.

Metcheck has the current CET at 17.1C, which is a 0.3C drop since yesterday and Netweather also has the CET at 17.4C, which is also a 0.3C drop since yesterday.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 17.5C, which 3.8C above the monthly average.

[Nick H]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 17.5C, which 3.8C above the monthly average.

It's only 2.4C above average, because we're only 7 days into the new month. It is pointless comparing the Sep 1-7 CET to the September CET, clearly the first week is expected to be warmer than the rest of the month. You can only compare it to the CET for the first week.

The 1-7th CET fell 0.5C between 6th and 7th, and will fall again today due to the low minima experienced this morning.

Edited September 8, 2006 by Nick H

[Scorcher]

It's only 2.4C above average, because we're only 7 days into the new month. It is pointless comparing the Sep 1-7 CET to the September CET, clearly the first week is expected to be warmer than the rest of the month. You can only compare it to the CET for the first week.

The 1-7th CET fell 0.5C between 6th and 7th, and will fall again today due to the low minima experienced this morning.

It will fall today, but it's almost irrelevant due to the fact that rises are inevitable over the weekend and early next week- with both high maxima and minima it's possible the CET could briefly touch 18C.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 16.9C, a 0.6C drop since yesterday.

Given that the CET for the first week of September was 17.5C, i think that the CET will be 14.5C or above.

[WindWatcher]

15.0 for me please.

Although I see some low mins coming up that might make my guess far too optimistic.

You obviously aren't looking in the same place as me then! I'm starting to regret not following my hunch rather than the stats. I was certainly expecting things to settle down, but at present we are pointed more in the direction of July than August in terms of relative outcome. Still, lots of time to change.

We are currently experiencing the low mins I was refering to, although given the change coming mid week they should stop soon but are having quite an effect on the CET at the moment despite the reasonably high temps and lovely sunshine during the day.

Metcheck has the current CET at 17.1C, which is a 0.3C drop since yesterday and Netweather also has the CET at 17.4C, which is also a 0.3C drop since yesterday.

Steve