Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[summer blizzard]

Good to have the 'pro' back. :lol:

Should someone merge the ssta sea-ice talk into here? opinions?

I will PM a moderator about it.

Carinthian, if we get any charts like the one below, i will be a very happy man...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Looking at the latest chart, sea ice seems to have reached its first minimum, whether it will now begin a upward trend or continue to decline remains to be seen.

Looking at all regions, there do not seem to be any major threats to sea ice at this time.

Edited August 12, 2006 by summer blizzard

[carinthian]

Good to have the 'pro' back. :lol:

Should someone merge the ssta sea-ice talk into here? opinions?

Hi SSts and sea ice talk are covered by Summer Brizzards open forum. Arctic Reports cover land based and upper air observations as well as sea ice reports. It would be too much of a wide topic to merge.

Thanks

C

[parmenides3]

Hi SSts and sea ice talk are covered by Summer Brizzards open forum. Arctic Reports cover land based and upper air observations as well as sea ice reports. It would be too much of a wide topic to merge.

Thanks

C

I know, I'm just being lazy. :lol:

P

[John Cox]

I will PM a moderator about it.

Carinthian, if we get any charts like the one below, i will be a very happy man...

Hi SB,

Why not!!

The last two winters have just been a practice run :lol:

[J10]

Should someone merge the ssta sea-ice talk into here? opinions?

:lol:

Done especially for you.

[carinthian]

Done especially for you.

Hello,

Wheres the Latest Arctic Reports thread gone ?

C

[J10]

Hello,

Wheres the Latest Arctic Reports thread gone ?

C

I'll unsplit it again,

Sorry Carinthian :lol:

[carinthian]

I'll unsplit it again,

Sorry Carinthian :lol:

Hi Jackone,

Thats Ok. I feel that SST , sea ice and latest Arctic Reports is to big a subject to discuss in one thread.

Thanks,

C

[The PIT]

Hi carinthian good break ???

[carinthian]

Hi carinthian good break ???

Hi Pit,

Yes thanks,always nice to "chill" in Ibiza.

C

[The PIT]

Hi Pit,

Yes thanks,always nice to "chill" in Ibiza.

C

Glad you enjoyed it. Look forward to hearing your reports.

[carinthian]

Greetings,

What a refreshing change to be back in a "temperate" Blighty this August after 2 weeks of blistering heat in Ibiza. Memories of the July heatwave now a distant memory, thoughts turn northwards as the sun sinks towards the horizon in the land of the "mid-night sun" and the fast approaching Autumn Equinox and the North Pole in twilight.

Usually by the second week of August, mean temps fall below 0C from the Mid - Arctic to the pole itself. Having being away for a few weeks, I been studying the excellent charts provided by the Spanish Met Office,who also provide a TV channel to include sailing forecasts and even upper air chart presentations for the watching public.

Anyway, heres my view of the latest reports from the Arctic:

The next 3 to 4 weeks will show if we are to reach a record low in Sea Surface ice extent. My observations think it will be close run. As expected from the last report, the Canadian sector has opened up with some low contentrations of ice up to 75 degrees N, however, the Beufort Basin remains locked to the Point of Barrow. In the Siberian Sector Laptov and Kara Sea have widely opened up with some low concentrations . Nearer to home the Barent Sea " cold pool " intrigue remains. Looking at the latest temperature predictions I do not expect any further reductions of the Arctic Ocean sea ice extent above 78N and the solid concentration in the Augura Basin should soon start to expand southwards towards the Barent Sea.

Carinthian

Hello again,

Further to the above report, I am now sure that we are past the period of minimum sea ice levels in the Arctic Ocean and the Barent Sea. The development of a cold pool here this week with forecast temps at pressure 850hpa widely below -10c. Arctic Rim forecasts for sea ice to drift into the Taymyr peninsula and with a strong drift to Svalbard ( a big change in the North Barent Sea to this time last year ) Whether sea ice levels get as low as last year remains to be seen, but may well now be decided by the amount of further decline that takes place in the Canadian Sector and West Arctic Basin. The prolonged Mid-Atlantic and Greenland block should soon start to hence the Mid- Arctic Basin "cold pool " and continue to push even colder air into the Barent.

Carinthian

[parmenides3]

That's weird, 'cause I've just been looking at the Canadian forecasts, a new site (to me), and they're expecting continued retreat on the ice in many areas through to the end of the month, due to unseasonably warm weather. Perhaps when they say areas are 'one to two weeks ahead', it means they expect it to get colder; please tell me.

I can't make head or tail of the Alaska ice-desk forecasts, they seem to contradict themselves, but I did notice quite a strong HP building up in the Central area over the next few days on Wetterzentrale's forecast. AARI don't have temps. falling below zero anywhere after tomorrow. I don't think we've seen the end of it yet, Carinth.

:blush: P

[carinthian]

That's weird, 'cause I've just been looking at the Canadian forecasts, a new site (to me), and they're expecting continued retreat on the ice in many areas through to the end of the month, due to unseasonably warm weather. Perhaps when they say areas are 'one to two weeks ahead', it means they expect it to get colder; please tell me.

I can't make head or tail of the Alaska ice-desk forecasts, they seem to contradict themselves, but I did notice quite a strong HP building up in the Central area over the next few days on Wetterzentrale's forecast. AARI don't have temps. falling below zero anywhere after tomorrow. I don't think we've seen the end of it yet, Carinth.

:blush: P

Hi P3,

Yes, I have reported it will now depend on the Cana dian Sectors whether minmimum levels overall are to be rreached, but don't now expect that in the Barent and Arctic Ocean sectors.

C

[parmenides3]

I tend to agree; I can't see how the total will get much lower than 5.3M Km2, at the lowest, but I am less sure than you about the Arctic Ocean, mainly because of ignorance. There still seems to be a lot of anticyclonic movement in play, and I'm not sure what effect that will have. please enlighten me.

[carinthian]

I tend to agree; I can't see how the total will get much lower than 5.3M Km2, at the lowest, but I am less sure than you about the Arctic Ocean, mainly because of ignorance. There still seems to be a lot of anticyclonic movement in play, and I'm not sure what effect that will have. please enlighten me.

hi P3,

The Arctic Ocean with its basins is usually contained with-in the 80 degree parallel and separted from the Arctic Rim countries by regional Seas. The main blocking is from the Mid- Atlantic to Greenland and into the Western Arctic Basin. High pressure conditions at this time of year allow greater solar reflection and should ensure less ice melt. Low pressure systems are then driven southwards out of the pole to the East of the block and should retain the ice pack in the area ( ie ) from the pole into the Barent.

C

[kold weather]

Will be keeping a close eye on this thread from now on, keep up the great posts carinthian. I myslef have an idea about the jet stream and the strength of recent blocking that does tie in somewhat with artic ice amounts and why they've been so low in recent years, and i think that the massivre upsurge in tropical actvity over the past 10 years may wlel have had a major part to play in that, because the remians of those systems pump up huge amounts of heat, in fact in basic terms they form simply to pump heat north-wards. So its only logical that if you get an increase in tropical cyclones getting into the jet stream then your also goign to get much more heat with them, plus the way they travel usually means they induce a zonal SW pattern into the Greenland region.

mind you one thing I'm watching very closely is the cold pool that may form over Greenland. It's formation however doesn't appear to be linked to winter however, the real reason for a formation of GCP (Greenland cold pool!) seems to be the lack of tropical actvity, you see the tropical cyclones inject a large amount of heat northwards however in some seasons these systems don't seem to make it here that often which allows the cold pool to build up un-touched.

I believe this may well help to pep-up the jet stream this Autumn providimng there is no major increase in tropical actvity. It's also intresting to note that this idea also fits with why these last 18-21 months have been so dry, the dry spell links very nicely with the massive upsurgae of tropical actvity in August 2004 which pumped mammoth amount of heat into the artic...less of a thermal gradiant means weaker jet, which means stronger blocking. This is then a very hard set-up to shift as it locks in, 2005 had the exact same thing but on a even bigger scale.

[carinthian]

Will be keeping a close eye on this thread from now on, keep up the great posts carinthian. I myslef have an idea about the jet stream and the strength of recent blocking that does tie in somewhat with artic ice amounts and why they've been so low in recent years, and i think that the massivre upsurge in tropical actvity over the past 10 years may wlel have had a major part to play in that, because the remians of those systems pump up huge amounts of heat, in fact in basic terms they form simply to pump heat north-wards. So its only logical that if you get an increase in tropical cyclones getting into the jet stream then your also goign to get much more heat with them, plus the way they travel usually means they induce a zonal SW pattern into the Greenland region.

mind you one thing I'm watching very closely is the cold pool that may form over Greenland. It's formation however doesn't appear to be linked to winter however, the real reason for a formation of GCP (Greenland cold pool!) seems to be the lack of tropical actvity, you see the tropical cyclones inject a large amount of heat northwards however in some seasons these systems don't seem to make it here that often which allows the cold pool to build up un-touched.

I believe this may well help to pep-up the jet stream this Autumn providimng there is no major increase in tropical actvity. It's also intresting to note that this idea also fits with why these last 18-21 months have been so dry, the dry spell links very nicely with the massive upsurgae of tropical actvity in August 2004 which pumped mammoth amount of heat into the artic...less of a thermal gradiant means weaker jet, which means stronger blocking. This is then a very hard set-up to shift as it locks in, 2005 had the exact same thing but on a even bigger scale.

hi KW,

Thanks for your thoughts. All I can add is that the Greenland "cold pool" was very much in evidence last Autumn with some record breaking low temps recorded there and then low and behold a mild winter followed, particularly over Western Greenland ! Regarding tropical cyclones ( were they more active this time last year ). I ask you as you seem to be well versed in this documentation.

C

[kold weather]

Much more active carinthian then this year so far, last year broke pretty much all the records!

where about were the record cold located by the way, I can't quite remember?

[parmenides3]

Thanks, both of you. I'm going to go back to the charts and see if I can make it all fit.

Am I right in thinking, Kold, that if the jet is more Northerly we would expect blocking closer to home, & therefore wetter/cooler weather in the UK?

I haven't seen that HP over Greenland shift much for a month now, which seems to be having an effect on the pressure systems to its South, especially around the Icelandic low, which has recently become more variable, and Labrador, wehere the sea is still quite 'warm'.

Thanks for the explanations.

:blush: P

[Guest Mike W]

I think if the Jet Stream is north of us, it means hot weather for us, and if it it's going through us, it means atlantic weather and if it's south of us it means cool or cold weather, this is only a generalisation.

[John Cox]

Here is tomorrows jet to the west moving south of us. It usually brings cold weather and if this was winter it would be a classic set it with a polar low moving south over over Ireland with tons of snow.

[carinthian]

Much more active carinthian then this year so far, last year broke pretty much all the records!

where about were the record cold located by the way, I can't quite remember?

hI kw.

Thanks. Record lows were recorded by automatic weather stations on the summit and at the Nord station in the period October. However, it must be remembered that these recording cover a relative small time span due to the advent of such remote recordings. Agree with you that the Atlantic is widely more quite this past summer. The northern block seems to have a strangle hold on our weather for some considerable period now. Maybe we are on track to the 6th winter scenario ?

C

Here is tomorrows jet to the west moving south of us. It usually brings cold weather and if this was winter it would be a classic set it with a polar low moving south over over Ireland with tons of snow.

hI jOHN,

Nice to see you posting again on this thread. Classic Northern Block jet flow. We were close last year. Maybe this year.

Ps, Enjoyed your holidaypictures from Co Clare.

Kind Regards.

C

[John Cox]

Hi C,

Glad you liked the photos.

I have been following closely your thread and it really has had a positive feel to it. Great conributions and great to see PM3's posts, a very technical input and even Kold wants to join the chat.

Well done to all and keep it up.

Ah, not long till our winter season

[summer blizzard]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Looks like a record sea ice minimum will be avoided this year, infact, i would be suprised if the sea ice amount drops below 6mskm.