May CET

[Guest Mike W]

I've got a max of 22 and a low of 14 for Thursady here in Bristol. That would be pretty respectable for July in the old days [pre 1988], now it's a dead cert to get that in May.

Edited April 29, 2006 by Mike W

[West is Best]

SB ... so are we going to have a year CET thread too?!

[Guest Mike W]

The only thing to say about a possible Annual CET is that the decadal average 96-05 is 10.24 and the average from 2002-05 is 10.45 and the previous run was 4 in a row, 97-00, the average for that being 10.38, so anything from that would be a good guess.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A tentative guess for 2006 might be 10.08 from me.

[SP1986]

14.3°C - a very dry month

[Optimus Prime]

With reliably only 5 days of very warm weather at the start of May, people are already calliung for a record warm May! I must admit, with mega blocking to the east (like much of the winter) it does look good for an exceptionaly warm May. But the end could be cold, of setting the possibly warm start.

[Guest Mike W]

I agree with you Thundery, well I wouldn't bet against 5 in a row.

[Weather-history]

With reliably only 5 days of very warm weather at the start of May, people are already calliung for a record warm May! I must admit, with mega blocking to the east (like much of the winter) it does look good for an exceptionaly warm May. But the end could be cold, of setting the possibly warm start.

A good point OP. Both May 1995 and 1997 had very warm starts but the CETs were close to average. May 1990 had an even warmer start but the CET was a degree cooler than the CET that was recorded for May 1992, which incidentally the heat didn't really kick in until just before mid-month.

The charts do indicate a warm first half to May however.

[reef]

A good point OP. Both May 1995 and 1997 had very warm starts but the CETs were close to average. May 1990 had an even warmer start but the CET was a degree cooler than the CET that was recorded for May 1992, which incidentally the heat didn't really kick in until just before mid-month.

The charts do indicate a warm first half to May however.

Interesting how two of those May's (1995 and 1997) both had rather significant cold spells after their very warm starts. There has been a small hint of similar to this in the models, with a building of the Greenland high after a brief easterly and the possibility of a northerly. Similar high-latitude blocking setups were responsible for the cold spells in 1995 and 1997:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119950509.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970507.gif

And, although probably a coincidence, the Greenland high tended to stick around in all cases (1990, 1995 and 1997) and was still around mid-month:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119900516.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119950516.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970516.gif

Another interesting fact is that 1990, 1995 and 1997 all had following Augusts with CETs above 18°C.

[SteveB]

11.5c for me

[Thundery wintry showers]

In my monthly discussion I went for 12.8C- so 12.8 it is.

[Optimus Prime]

Well despite the cold start, according to the temperature tracker it is 0.24c above average. While metcheck have it at 0.3c below average.

It's only going to be a short warm spell, lasting a couple of days before turning more unsettled and cooler (with temperatures around 12c-17c) which is still not bad for the start of May.

The GFS are indicating cooler nights next week with temperatures dropping to close to freezing levels. Despite the warm start, the first half of May looks to end up close to average temperature wise.

[West is Best]

the first half of May looks to end up close to average temperature wise.

Bet you it doesn't!

Anyone know why Philip Eden's May average is 9.8C? http://www.climate-uk.com/ (Philip?)

The 1961-1990 is 11.2C; 1971-2000 is 11.3C and the 100 year 1996-2005 is 11.4C

[Weather-history]

Anyone know why Philip Eden's May average is 9.8C? http://www.climate-uk.com/ (Philip?)

Thats the average for May up to the 3rd of May, you are looking at the average for the whole of May.

[West is Best]

Thats the average for May up to the 3rd of May, you are looking at the average for the whole of May.

You mean that's an adjusted figure, rather than the monthly CET? A sense of deja vu here ... got a feeling I asked exactly the same thing of him this time last year

[Optimus Prime]

True.

I found this quite interesting;

"Max 21.4°C at Gravesend (Kent), [also at Clerkenwell, London] - first 20+ max of the year, and the latest

date to cross this threshold since 1983"

So 20c+ has never been unusual for the start of May? Even at the end of April. What a crap heatwave this has turned out to be.

Calculating the 4th-10th the average came out at 11.3c according to the GFS latest run. That would make it about 0.6c above normal....not exactly breaking records is it?

[West is Best]

What a crap heatwave this has turned out to be.

Bizarre comment OP. It's glorious - why not just enjoy it?

Did anyone say anything about records? (Apart from my pal John Cox that is )

[Optimus Prime]

Bizarre comment OP. It's glorious - why not just enjoy it?

I was joking.

Trust me, I am enjoying this warmth! Also enjoying hayfever that comes with it.

[West is Best]

I was joking.

Trust me, I am enjoying this warmth! Also enjoying hayfever that comes with it.

Ah! OK!

(25C at London Gatwick at noon ... )

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thats the average for May up to the 3rd of May, you are looking at the average for the whole of May.

I'll add my support to this comment- I also remember this discussion happening last year, and Philip actually saying on the forum that he compares like with like (e.g. 1-3 May with the 71-00 mean for 1-3 May).

As for the "crap heatwave". I think the early May heatwaves of 1990, 1995 and 1997 were remarkable in that we had three in such a short space of time. Heatwaves of that magnitude are rare- especially considering that we've struggled to reach highs of 25-27C in late May during recent years, yet they were reached in each of those three early May heatwaves.

It should still only be a couple of degrees off record-breaking today- we might just scrape a 27 somewhere.

[shuggee]

Here's an interesting cautionary tale for those who might get a wee bit carried away with today's heat:

May 1923. The month started off scorching hot, reaching an astonishing 28C (82F) on the 4th and 5th. But soon afterwards temperatures nosedived and turned so cold that by mid-May snow was falling. It turned out to be one of the coldest Mays of the 20th century.

From:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...ndpost&p=687295

[Anti-Mild]

Here's an interesting cautionary tale for those who might get a wee bit carried away with today's heat:

From:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...ndpost&p=687295

If snow falls this May then I will eat my collection of hats (all 3 of them) !!

[West is Best]

If snow falls this May then I will eat my collection of hats (all 3 of them) !!

Hi AM - I've got to say that even by my standards that's a tad rash. I think it's unlikely, and the synoptics look nice and warm, but I can remember a number of Mays with snow showers, and with 27 days of the month left ... how would you serve them up?

[Anti-Mild]

Hi AM - I've got to say that even by my standards that's a tad rash. I think it's unlikely, and the synoptics look nice and warm, but I can remember a number of Mays with snow showers, and with 27 days of the month left ... how would you serve them up?

Hi Richard, yes maybe it is a little premature but I stand by it. As far as the hats are concerned, if it comes to it one will be served on a bed of watercress, spinach and rocket, one will be flash fried and one will be eaten raw !

Good to hear from you again mate!

AM

[SNOW-MAN2006]

it has been a fab day today with temperatures clearly above average for the time of year... c.e.t looks like climbing further as we head through the next 3 days atleast

SNOW-MAN2006