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The Next Ice Age


Guest Daniel

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
It is thought (though perhaps not proven) that winds have more influence on the N toS energy flows, that the water element.

Hi Paul,

This is the first I have heard or read that the winds could have more influence on the flow of the NAD than the water itself.

I would be more than interested to read up on this because up to now I thought that the biggest influence on the NAD flow was the NAD itself.

Have you any links to research on this idea?

Edited by John Cox
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Hi Paul,

This is the first I have heard or read that the winds could have more influence on the flow of the NAD than the water itself.

I would be more than interested to read up on this because up to now I thought that the biggest influence on the NAD flow was the NAD itself.

Have you any links to research on this idea?

Hi John, I cant quite put my finger on it but I feel we are in a different synoptical pattern in general over the last year. I cant really point to why yet but something is different. Anyway you seem to be leading the charge on the NAD and some are taking it to heart http://www.anglersnet.co.uk/forums/index.php?showtopic=5309 . Those fishermen always complaining :D Anyhow keep it up :D

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Guest Viking141

I tend to agree with the idea that the NAD is slowing and that this will lead to cooling in Northern latitudes.

This is based mainly on my own observations, living as I do in Shetland at a latitude of 60 deg North.

There is no doubt in my mind that the summers up here are getting cooler, starting later and not lasting as long as they used.

The last two years in particular have caught my attention. Last year we were still getting temps as low as 6/7 deg in June for goodness sake and this year has been similar. Up until the last week or so the mid-day temp up here has struggled to get into double figures. Furthermore, the wind direction seems to be increasingly from the Northern quarter, even during spring/summer/autumn months when usually one would expect them to be predominantly from the SW.

I have discussed this with Dave Wheeler, the Meteorologist at Fair Isle Weather Station and he agrees. In fact, he says he has data going back 30 years which show a definite cooling trend in the Shetland area of the North Sea.

I am also told by folk I know in the fishing industry that the shoals of cod and haddock, which until 3 years ago had been fast disappearing from these waters have begun to come back in increasingly large numbers. This is significant as these species of fish are cold water lovers and it has long been suspected that one of the reasons why these fish had disappeared from local waters was as a consequence of global warming and the shoals heading further north insearch of colder waters. Could be that they were right.

I also note reports of large numbers of basking sharks off the Western Isles due to unusually huge blooms of plankton in these waters. I seem to recall that plankton are also lovers of cold water so this also suggests to me a possible cooling trend in northern climes.

Add all this to the recent excellent winter we had up here with frequent heavy wintry spells (last winter (20042005), whilst the snowy outbreaks were not as heavy as this year were certainly more frequent than they have been in recent years also fits in well with this trend) and I definitely see signs of a trend emerging. This may, however, at present, only relate to northern areas like Shetland and may take much longer to spread any further south. I laso concede that this may only be a short term phenomenon, only time will tell if this is a definite trend which will continue. Interesting times ahead and I shall be keeping my eyes peeled for the first signs of winter this year and how it compares with the last couple of years.

Edited by Viking141
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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
I tend to agree with the idea that the NAD is slowing and that this will lead to cooling in Northern latitudes.

This is based mainly on my own observations, living as I do in Shetland at a latitude of 60 deg North.

There is no doubt in my mind that the summers up here are getting cooler, starting later and not lasting as long as they used.

The last two years in particular have caught my attention. Last year we were still getting temps as low as 6/7 deg in June for goodness sake and this year has been similar. Up until the last week or so the mid-day temp up here has struggled to get into double figures. Furthermore, the wind direction seems to be increasingly from the Northern quarter, even during spring/summer/autumn months when usually one would expect them to be predominantly from the SW.

I have discussed this with Dave Wheeler, the Meteorologist at Fair Isle Weather Station and he agrees. In fact, he says he has data going back 30 years which show a definite cooling trend in the Shetland area of the North Sea.

I am also told by folk I know in the fishing industry that the shoals of cod and haddock, which until 3 years ago had been fast disappearing from these waters have begun to come back in increasingly large numbers. This is significant as these species of fish are cold water lovers and it has long been suspected that one of the reasons why these fish had disappeared from local waters was as a consequence of global warming and the shoals heading further north insearch of colder waters. Could be that they were right.

I also note reports of large numbers of basking sharks off the Western Isles due to unusually huge blooms of plankton in these waters. I seem to recall that plankton are also lovers of cold water so this also suggests to me a possible cooling trend in northern climes.

Add all this to the recent excellent winter we had up here with frequent heavy wintry spells (last winter (20042005), whilst the snowy outbreaks were not as heavy as this year were certainly more frequent than they have been in recent years also fits in well with this trend) and I definitely see signs of a trend emerging. This may, however, at present, only relate to northern areas like Shetland and may take much longer to spread any further south. I laso concede that this may only be a short term phenomenon, only time will tell if this is a definite trend which will continue. Interesting times ahead and I shall be keeping my eyes peeled for the first signs of winter this year and how it compares with the last couple of years.

What a fabulous post, very interesting reading!

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
What a fabulous post, very interesting reading!

Do you think it is a fabulous post because it tends towards agreeing with what you'd like to believe is happeneing ribster?

*>))

I think it is an excellent post too, Viking and thank you. Although your fishing examples are local, the fishing grounds are obviously further afield and the anecdotal tales go against the Noth Sea research of last year, That's not to say it isn't interesting, because it is. The Atlantic is hugely complex with many currents at different depths (we often talk blandly about the NAD, of the Gulf Stream, but a map of North Atlantic ocean currents at different depths is bewildering. Imagining them in 3D is a horrendous exercise!) and whilst some sea areas may experience rapid warming, others may not. Also Cod and Haddock are demersal fish, mainly living in deeper water, and would be less affected by surface temperatures, which are influenced more by the weather, than ocean currents, perhaps bringing cooler water from other areas). Indeed with Prof Wadham's research into the effects of melting ice shelves and the cryosphere evidence for a lack of ice, this spring, there may well be more colder water in some areas. Basking sharks are pelagic (surface dwellers) and live in warmer waters, hence their, well documented, increases in numbers around the shores of the UK. I'm not sure they are increasing as far North as Shetland, but if they are, it is more probably due to warmer surface waters, rather than cold water plankton blooms.

Your meteorologist's evidence is also interesting. The warming trend will never be linear, either spatially, or temporally and Shetland would apppear to be an area which may be bucking the trend. I use "appear" and "may be" quite deliberately here as I don't think it is, as yet, well researched, but nevertheless it made me read and re-read the post........ he says, going back to it again!).

You have a very different climate in Shetland to the rest of us, Viking. I am currently reading the tome which is the collected poems of George Mackay Brown (sorry to appear to lump Shetland and Orkney, I don't mean any disrespect, but there are few contributors to these Internet boards from the islands to the North of Scotland - and I wish there were). His descriptions of the Orcadian weather are superb and immense (as is his poetry) and his constant references to winter snow, highlights the winter climate difference so well!

I must visit someday and I'll pack some winter woolies, if I come in the summer!

Refards, Paul

Edited by Dawlish
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Posted
  • Location: Canada
  • Location: Canada

Very interesting read viking141. Theres nothing like getting first hand information from the people who are experiencing "climate shift". Beats any report or research work imo. :(

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Guest Viking141

Hi Dawlish & Ribster

Thankyou for your comments. There is an item on the Western Isles Basking Sharks here:

Basking Sharks story

They seem to suggest that their appearance and also the appearance of Fin Whales in the area recently is indicative of increased plankton blooms, not warmer water.

:(

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Very interesting read viking141. Theres nothing like getting first hand information from the people who are experiencing "climate shift". Beats any report or research work imo. :(

It's a nice idea, kippure, but it's anecdotal evidence. It can be used to back up research and it can certainly become evidence if recording the changes is approached in a correct, statistical way, but, much as we'd all like to give full credence to what people think, comparative memories, over time are notoriously unreliable as evidence of climate shift in itself. This is especially true if you ask subjective questions like "do you think the climate in _______ has changed, over the last 25 years?" The variation between two individual's memories can be enormous and it is influence by a whole range of things. I would suggest that this would be unreliable evidence, both for the pro- and the anti- climate change camps.

The real evidence is through assiduous, long-term recording, then scientific investigation of the possible causes, when a trend becomes identifiable and provable.

Paul

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Guest Viking141

To a certain extent I would agree Dawlish, but I would point out that in part, my assertion is based not just on what I personally have observed but also the scientific records of the Fair Isle Meteorologist who assures me there is a discernible cooling trend in the data he has collected over the last 30 years. I have no reason to doubt him.

:(

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
To a certain extent I would agree Dawlish, but I would point out that in part, my assertion is based not just on what I personally have observed but also the scientific records of the Fair Isle Meteorologist who assures me there is a discernible cooling trend in the data he has collected over the last 30 years. I have no reason to doubt him.

:blink:

The data would be of great interest Viking, mate...Finding-out why there has been a cooling trend would, in itself, be a fascinating exercise to attempt... :(

Can you post a link?

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Do you think it is a fabulous post because it tends towards agreeing with what you'd like to believe is happeneing ribster?

*>))

I think it is an excellent post too, Viking and thank you. Although your fishing examples are local, the fishing grounds are obviously further afield and the anecdotal tales go against the Noth Sea research of last year, That's not to say it isn't interesting, because it is. The Atlantic is hugely complex with many currents at different depths (we often talk blandly about the NAD, of the Gulf Stream, but a map of North Atlantic ocean currents at different depths is bewildering. Imagining them in 3D is a horrendous exercise!) and whilst some sea areas may experience rapid warming, others may not. Also Cod and Haddock are demersal fish, mainly living in deeper water, and would be less affected by surface temperatures, which are influenced more by the weather, than ocean currents, perhaps bringing cooler water from other areas). Indeed with Prof Wadham's research into the effects of melting ice shelves and the cryosphere evidence for a lack of ice, this spring, there may well be more colder water in some areas. Basking sharks are pelagic (surface dwellers) and live in warmer waters, hence their, well documented, increases in numbers around the shores of the UK. I'm not sure they are increasing as far North as Shetland, but if they are, it is more probably due to warmer surface waters, rather than cold water plankton blooms.

Your meteorologist's evidence is also interesting. The warming trend will never be linear, either spatially, or temporally and Shetland would apppear to be an area which may be bucking the trend. I use "appear" and "may be" quite deliberately here as I don't think it is, as yet, well researched, but nevertheless it made me read and re-read the post........ he says, going back to it again!).

You have a very different climate in Shetland to the rest of us, Viking. I am currently reading the tome which is the collected poems of George Mackay Brown (sorry to appear to lump Shetland and Orkney, I don't mean any disrespect, but there are few contributors to these Internet boards from the islands to the North of Scotland - and I wish there were). His descriptions of the Orcadian weather are superb and immense (as is his poetry) and his constant references to winter snow, highlights the winter climate difference so well!

I must visit someday and I'll pack some winter woolies, if I come in the summer!

Refards, Paul

Certainly not, viking posted something and elaborated on it, rather than a one line statement dismissing or supporting something. I for one thank him for that kind of post.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Hi icicles & Vicking,

This NAD topic really interests me and as I am NADSDLA member one I just want to raise awareness of the likelehood and the probability of this shutdown happening sooner or later. It is really a worthwhile topic to discuss.

I am delighted with Vikings post not because I want it to happen but he shows the second dimension to this debate and that is one of observation of climatic change. Together with synoptic changes this is what will eventually show when the NAD shutdown effects have begun to happen.

It is important to realise that I am not saying that it is taking place at the moment but that there is a possibilty that it has begun.

Those sceptics on board ( and I understand this )can place a lot of scientific evidence against the likelehood of the fact that the NAD may possibly be shutting down.

What will determine if the early signs are there, are the likes of Viking and any other weather observers ( That was my previous incarnation on NW ,"Weather Observer"). They will be the first to hearald this change or not.

So please, out of respect, please dont dismiss out of hand, mine and others views and observations.

Both the science and the observations will determine when and if this change is occurring.

Edited by John Cox
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Hi icicles & Vicking,

This NAD topic really interests me and as I am NADSDLA member one I just want to raise awareness of the likelehood and the probability of this shutdown happening sooner or later. It is really a worthwhile topic to discuss.

I am delighted with Vikings post not because I want it to happen but he shows the second dimension to this debate and that is one of observation of climatic change. Together with synoptic changes this is what will eventually show when the NAD shutdown effects have begun to happen.

It is important to realise that I am not saying that it is taking place at the moment but that there is a possibilty that it has begun.

Those sceptics on board ( and I understand this )can place a lot of scientific evidence against the likelehood of the fact that the NAD may possibly be shutting down.

What will determine if the early signs are there, are the likes of Viking and any other weather observers ( That was my previous incarnation on NW ,"Weather Observer"). They will be the first to hearald this change or not.

So please, out of respect, please dont dismiss out of hand, mine and others views and observations.

Both the science and the observations will determine when and if this change is occurring.

I haven't dismissed it John. Its an intriuging argument. My knowledge of the NAD isnt that deep tbh so I cant make an imformed opinion. Certainly an interesting concept :angry:

Edited by Icicles
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
I haven't dismissed it John. Its an intriuging argument. My knowledge of the NAD isnt that deep tbh so I cant make an imformed opinion. Certainly an interesting concept :huh:

Hi Icicles,

Sorry if I implied you did.

Open mind you have, yes indeed.

Just me on my soap box.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

I thinks John's point was when ever someone say's they have observed something(eg-increase in snow & ice) it gets dismissed as CET's etc show we are still warming. I saw something last winter i haven't seen for a good few years-icicles!!! Both me & John have observed a steady increase in colder winters since around 2000. Still not a patch on the winters of the late 70's and early 80's but better than most of the 90's! I think this winter(coming) will be VERY interesting-will the pattern continue?(some say there isn't even a pattern as last winter was the only cold winter we have had-not true for me i'm afraid,and some say last winter wasn't even cold!) Or was the last few years a small blip and back we go to wet & windy winters? The last winters biggest change for here was the lack of wind-the Atlantic seemed VERY quiet. For now i will leave you with these pictures-these were taken on the 12th of March.

120320063%20(1).JPG

:huh: .JPG" border="0" class="linked-image" />

120320063%20(6).JPG

120320063%20(9).JPG

120320063%20(12).JPG

So what was the CET for March?! For the record we had snow in November, January, February March and April.

Edited by drgl
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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

Many thanks to John and drgl for their posts which have expressed things so well. I concur with what they have written but have not been able to express it properly myself.........so very many thanks to you both! Count me in on this as always. :huh:

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

HI Noggin, drql etc.

Noggin you are one of the members who fall into the category of calling the change of weather as you exactly experience it.

That is the part of the discussion in conjunction with the synoptic change that makes up a very large part (not all) of the picture that will determine if we are seeing a real change of pattern in our weather.

Next winter will be a telling one.

......drql

What a splendid group of photos.

They chilled my heart greatly :huh:

Edited by John Cox
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Guest Viking141
The data would be of great interest Viking, mate...Finding-out why there has been a cooling trend would, in itself, be a fascinating exercise to attempt... :)

Can you post a link?

Hi

I dont think the data has been put online as yet. Last time I spoke to Dave he was in the process of putting together an article on this very subject for a magazine and he said he would let me have a copy. I await same with anticipation!

I've also asked Dave to let me know how this year so far is looking and whether this confirms the trend he believes is happening, or not as the case may be. I shall let you all know as soon as I have it.

Thankyou John Cox for pointing out that empirical scientific evidence is not the one and only source of a possible trend towards an NAD shutdown and Northern cooling. Yes, scientific evidence is important but I believe it is not the be-all and end-all and that what one observes with ones own eyes can be just as relevant. I seem to recall that observation was once a critical part of scientific research! I also believe that science can often lag behind events "on the ground", for example, twenty years ago people were arguing that what we were seeing was evidence of climate change and global warming, but only now have we come to accept that the science shows exactly that. Whos' to say that in another twenty years we wont be finally coming to the conclusion that global warming can in fact cause global cooling in the northern hemisphere (as it has in the past) and that we are at present seeing the very beginning of that change.

:doh:

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Hi icicles & Vicking,

This NAD topic really interests me and as I am NADSDLA member one I just want to raise awareness of the likelehood and the probability of this shutdown happening sooner or later. It is really a worthwhile topic to discuss.

I am delighted with Vikings post not because I want it to happen but he shows the second dimension to this debate and that is one of observation of climatic change. Together with synoptic changes this is what will eventually show when the NAD shutdown effects have begun to happen.

It is important to realise that I am not saying that it is taking place at the moment but that there is a possibilty that it has begun.

Those sceptics on board ( and I understand this )can place a lot of scientific evidence against the likelehood of the fact that the NAD may possibly be shutting down.

What will determine if the early signs are there, are the likes of Viking and any other weather observers ( That was my previous incarnation on NW ,"Weather Observer"). They will be the first to hearald this change or not.

So please, out of respect, please dont dismiss out of hand, mine and others views and observations.

Both the science and the observations will determine when and if this change is occurring.

How very eloquently put, kind of thing I would have said if I had the intelligence!

Cheers, rib

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
How very eloquently put, kind of thing I would have said if I had the intelligence!

Cheers, rib

Hi Ribster,

Thank you, but my intelligence is no more than yours.

I have been interested in meteorology since I was 4 years of age and I am now 49.

I know what I know and that is i have observed the weather very closely since that young age.

I used to pay for the UK met office daily charts when I was 20 years of age, such is my interest.

I remember the winter storms of the early 90's and the cold winters of the early 80's.

NW has really been a great help from an education point of view but all I know is that in Ireland in the last few years the Alantic has quietened and the last 2 winters have synoptically changed and last winter has been the coldest here in five years...Fact.

Please post rib and dont be intimadated by those members that "appear" more intelligent.

Your view is as important as anyone else's :blush:

Edited by John Cox
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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Hi Ribster,

Thank you, but my intelligence is no more than yours.

I have been interested in meteorology since I was 4 years of age and I am now 49.

I know what I know and that is i have observed the weather very closely since that young age.

I used to pay for the UK met office daily charts when I was 20 years of age, such is my interest.

I remember the winter storms of the early 90's and the cold winters of the early 80's.

NW has really been a great help from an education point of view but all I know is that in Ireland in the last few years the Alantic has quietened and the last 2 winters have synoptically changed and last winter has been the coldest here in five years...Fact.

Please post rib and dont be intimadated by those members that "appear" more intelligent.

Your view is as important as anyone else's :blush:

All probably true John, TY.

Regards, Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
I seem to recall that observation was once a critical part of scientific research! I also believe that science can often lag behind events "on the ground", for example, twenty years ago people were arguing that what we were seeing was evidence of climate change and global warming, but only now have we come to accept that the science shows exactly that. :D

Oh, yes! I am absolutely certain that we are now past the cusp of a cooldown for our "quarter" of the Earth and that the heat peaked during 2003. There have been so very many signs for the seeing. I really, really do not wish to cause any offence, but I wonder if sometimes scientists and mathematicians are not blinkered to an extent by their passion for their ways of doing things. Not knocking it, just standing back and observing.

I posted a few weeks ago about a professor from Oxford University who was speaking about the effects of Chernyobl (?sp) on the British Isles. With hindsight, he said that "observation" would have given a far truer picture of the effects than their statistics had given.

If that man had been in the room at the time I would have flung my arms around him and given him a great big kiss ( :D ). I felt as if it was vindication from on high!

PS John.....like Rib, I am so glad that you here and that you put things so very well. I know how I feel and I know what I know, but can't usually express it in a good and rational way!

Edited by noggin
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Hi Noggin,

Great post and Chernoble is a great example of what you are talking about. I never thought of that.

As you say science has its definate place but our senses do not lie.

Have a good day noggin, busy at work at the moment so will not be on NW much today, just peeping in now and then.

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Hi Ribster,

Thank you, but my intelligence is no more than yours.

I have been interested in meteorology since I was 4 years of age and I am now 49.

I know what I know and that is i have observed the weather very closely since that young age.

I used to pay for the UK met office daily charts when I was 20 years of age, such is my interest.

I remember the winter storms of the early 90's and the cold winters of the early 80's.

NW has really been a great help from an education point of view but all I know is that in Ireland in the last few years the Alantic has quietened and the last 2 winters have synoptically changed and last winter has been the coldest here in five years...Fact.

Please post rib and dont be intimadated by those members that "appear" more intelligent.

Your view is as important as anyone else's :o

Hi John, thanks for the encouragement. Only 33 myself, but I do remember the winters of the late 70s/early 80s. I must dig out some photos from when our village was completely cut off, can't remember the year, but bread and milk was going for a pound a throw and gas stoves being sold at ludicrous prices! I admit to being a cold lover, but also think that we may be on the cusp of a colder spell.

Cheers, rib.

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