The Next Ice Age

[Methuselah]

I do find that situation disturbing, Sesnow. Who on Earth do tonnes of produce need to criss-cross the globe before we consume any of it?

It would be funny if it were not so stupid/sad! B)

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

just to add to the discussion, i feel this is quite disturbing

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4897252.stm

It is disturbing to a point, but I think (perhaps in parts at least) out of context.

1500mt of potatoes = 55 lorries

465mt of gingerbread = 17 lorries

9900mt of dairy = 366 lorries

Obviously, the dairies is a big number. Not huge in the scale of other food imports/exports (the amount of salt shifted from one country to another is much bigger than dairy).

The problem is, is that not every country can produce its own needs. However, where one country may overproduce/underuse one product, the same will happen in another country for another product.

If you notice in the report, the article says "imported 9,900 tonnes of the dairy goods from France". What does it mean by dairy goods? Milk and cream like the export? Powders? Cheese?

If it is talking about milk, there is a simple and logical explanation. Milk is produced at certain points of the year, which actually varies from country to country (due to climate etc?). Now when milk is low in france, they import. When milk is low in the UK, they import. Who do they import from? Each other.

Not every food is produced 24/7, 365 days a year. Therefore, many imports and exports are due to seasonal variances.

Anyway, another boring explanation by me B)

[Essan]

Simple warmth can cause iceages.

No.

The nearest we came to the development of new ice sheets on Baffin Island was during the Little Ice Age (as indicated by 'lichen halos' - areas where lichen died off as a result of permanent snow cover; snow cover which no longer exists). There is no such development occuring now.

Ergo all evidence points towards the need for colder conditions to facilitate the development of ice sheets in Northern Canada and set in process the shift into a new Glacial.

[Metomania]

Simple warmth can cause iceages. extra warmth mean more moisture and that falls as more snow. thus that in turn builds up the ice caps that would cause cooling. Right now more snow is falling in the polar regions. all iceages start at the end of warm spells. even the little ice age came at the end of a warm period. A report out today claims that the world is liviing beyond its means. So we need to current warmth period to go on in order for our crops to grow. Now if there was a cool spell over Europe and north america in which most of the Middle Latitude temperate food is grown caused massive crops failers that would bring about massive problems with food.

As far as we know there has never been such a steep temperature increase on this planet. No archaeological or palaeontological proofs can be found for anything so unprecedentedly sharp as the warm up in the twentieth century. With the ice caps melting faster than ever (yet another bleak report out today about the arctic ice caps melting - 6C above average in some places) you certainly cannot rely on snow fall in this way. To point out the obvious, the heavy ppn this year in the Rockies may have fallen as snow high up, but fell as unseasonal rain lower down. You only have to ask residents of the mid-west US or places like Calgary and they would gladly tell you how bizarrely snow-free this winter was for them.

I know where you are coming from with this, but your application of a theory about cool-down to the actual facts looks to me like you end up simply distorting those facts.

Edited April 15, 2006 by Metomania

[Stratos Ferric]

Interestingly, because people might not realise this, the huge snow depths in the Rockies have coincided with massive warm anomalies this winter. It has been the warmest winter in the Rockies in living memory, but with big snow depths in some resorts. So don't let anyone dare, even dare, start dragging ice age theories into that!

Yes, another example of rediculously poor science that aligns with the selective use of evidence of faster moving / growing glaciers often cited by Ice Age Now. As MetO is implying, a warming climate can actually be good news for ski resorts if they have a winter climate well below freezing (and altitude alone tends to provide for this for most of the winter, pretty much day long during high winter). Models for the Alps a decade or so ago showed this, because an increase in average humidity is going to increase precipitation, and wit a climate still below freezing during winter this means more snow DESPITE a warming climate.

For this reason some glaciers will grow, they may also appear to grow because they are flattening and moving as they warm over summer, though eventually the net effect will be dramatic retreat, and in some instances in the Alps, and in the Ice Sheets across Iceland, this is already evident.

Simple warmth can cause iceages. extra warmth mean more moisture and that falls as more snow. thus that in turn builds up the ice caps that would cause cooling. Right now more snow is falling in the polar regions. all iceages start at the end of warm spells. even the little ice age came at the end of a warm period. A report out today claims that the world is liviing beyond its means. So we need to current warmth period to go on in order for our crops to grow. Now if there was a cool spell over Europe and north america in which most of the Middle Latitude temperate food is grown caused massive crops failers that would bring about massive problems with food.

Indeed, although as things stand a bigger threat is the rain bearing belts that currently water the grain stores of the Steppes, Prairies and Pampas moving poleward.

If it is talking about milk, there is a simple and logical explanation. Milk is produced at certain points of the year, which actually varies from country to country (due to climate etc?). Now when milk is low in france, they import. When milk is low in the UK, they import. Who do they import from? Each other.

Not every food is produced 24/7, 365 days a year. Therefore, many imports and exports are due to seasonal variances.

Anyway, another boring explanation by me

I have to say that's news to me: having grown up around the countryside, and continuing to live in the country, I'm pretty sure that cows get milked every day! There are seasonal variations in yield and quality, largely driven by the fact that spring grass tends to be the most succulent, however I suspect that modern feedstuffs and supplements more than compensate for natural variations in nutrition provided by the grass cycle.

The movement of dairy produce around Europe has nothing to do with anything other than the vagueries of EC agricultural policy which favour French farmers (like it or not, by some indicators, france continues to be little more than a second world nation) and require an outlet for their produce. This is clearly uneconomic other than for the fact that subsidies exist to create an artificial economy in various primary products. The UK was more than self-sufficient in dairy products all year round long before mass movements of perishibles became possible.

What has changed is that "out of season" fruits like strawberries and satsumas are now moved across continents and between hemispheres to provide supply. Chefs often point out the folly of this as the flavour of produce degrades fairly quickly; hence their lament about year-round supply instead of seasonal rotation between different products.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just to update...it is a record at mammoth and they are extending their ski season...to 4th July? :blush:

BFTP

Sorry folks

That should have read 16+ METRES since October. Also snowfall doubled in area east of Urals about million sq Km in area.

I think someone mentioned that slightly warmer temps may/will increase snowfall in areas 'prone' to snow.

Will keep my thoughts for a while but just to say snowcover has an important role and there are many signs/indications that it is increasing.

Also 0.5c surface warming in 100years is not unprecedented

BFTP :blush:

[The Penguin]

. . . . . . . . .

If it is talking about milk, there is a simple and logical explanation. Milk is produced at certain points of the year, which actually varies from country to country (due to climate etc?). Now when milk is low in france, they import. When milk is low in the UK, they import. Who do they import from? Each other.

Not every food is produced 24/7, 365 days a year. Therefore, many imports and exports are due to seasonal variances.

Anyway, another boring explanation by me

I worked on a farm for a year after leaving school and, as SF points out, I have to tell you that diary cows actually produce milk 2x24/7, whether they want to or not, poor dears. This is what makes being a dairy farmer such a pain in the udders.

They do come off production when they've got a calf, and I can only be sure about cows in our latitudes, but in general they're milked twice a day, every day.

[Guest Daniel]

Silly me, silly silly silly silly me. Silly me...silly silly me - I must have been eating too much chocolate ergo they have made more chocolate this year.

Daniel, you're right of course, this cold winter is, without doubt, the start of many threads from you to the effect that this winter is the start of the next ice age...

There's a few people on here who I'd love to meet in the flesh: they are of a type who are either quite brilliant - or else the opposite.

This winter may well be the start of another ice age. now when iceages start there dont start overnight and it will take a long long time before the polar ice caps come down to London. But as we move into another ice age we will first see strange things going on in the Arctic with more snow falling in GreenLand leading to more melt water. Also we would see more intense cold spells in the mid Latiudes and greater snowfall. Then Across Europe RUssia and Asia winters will really start to cool down with more snow and this will have an inpact on other seasons as well. Now there will not be a great freeze every year over all locations but there would be more cold than mild on the Russian side of the Arctic. Another sign is that the gulf stream will slow down which mean less heat for Europe. In North americal there will also be periods of intense cold but also milder periods as well. As I said Ice ages do not start over night but in the comming years we will start to see much colder winters in the U.K and Europe.

[kippure]

Sorry but there,ll be no ice age any time soon.Theres just not enough info to prove anything on this subject. In my life time we,ll have some cold seasons and some mild ones.If we did get a hic up in the climate something completly mad would have to happen eg yellow stone volcanic euruption or a metor strike that put millions of tons of ash into the atmosphere causing a global instant cool down.An ice age is a human altering experance, ie kill us all off,in my opinion if the earth was to wobble on its axis and turn away from the sun then yes the northern hemisphere would cool down but when is that going to happen, last time i read it is supposed to happen in 13 thousand years

[pottyprof]

As far as we know there has never been such a steep temperature increase on this planet. No archaeological or palaeontological proofs can be found for anything so unprecedentedly sharp as the warm up in the twentieth century.

ahhhhhh.. see there ya go!!.. you cant prove it as all the evidence melted away and everything ended up under water

[Essan]

This winter may well be the start of another ice age.

Daniel, there have been many, many, many colder winters over the past few millenia. Those of the Little Ice Age being the obvious example. And even that didn't precipitate a new Glacial (although embryonic ice sheets did start to form on Baffin) because it dodn't last long enough.

Why on Earth would you think one fauirly average winter is the start of a new Glacial?

In any case, if a new did Glacial start today it'd be hundreds of years before we were even aware and tens of thousands before ice sheets started to affect the UK.

[Metomania]

This winter may well be the start of another ice age.

North America (the US and Canada) experienced one of the warmest winters in living memory. We had one that was about average. To start postulating ice ages based on a bit of a chilly February is beyond a joke ...

[acbrixton]

This ice age-cometh nonsense is becoming tedious as it is not backed up by either logical argument or empirical data...can we please take on board the pertinent points made ad nauseam:

1. one average to slightly cooler winter/early spring in the Uk does not indicate of itself a change to the 1940-1975 colling, still less "The little Ice Age" much less the next ice age.

2. Increased snowfall in high latitudes/mountainous areas in the mid-latitudes may often result from milder winters [warmer air, all else being equal, can carry more moisture which, providing the warming is not utterly catastrophic, will mean a tendency to increased snowfall], as opposed to colder winters.

3. Take at the very least a continental and preferably a hemispheric and not a parochial national/regional view of winter weather.

4. Do not fall into the trap of quoting, out of context, a weeks severe weather in Florence/Athens/Vallodolid or wherever as evidence of anything except the fact that even southern Europe (esp if inland/at altitude) can experience sever spells in some winters.

5. Although debate rages as to the appropriate length of time to measure climate change in human/historical time one or two or even a handful of cold winters whilst interesting proive very little as to long term trends.

6. A little intellectual humility never goes amiss (i.e. qualify assertions, admit contrary evidence and avoid grandstanding absolute assertions: they only invite ridicule from those who are a somewhat wiser).

7. Finally may we please stop the nonsense of wishing the North Atlantic Drift to disappear: first it would bring about a very damaging change to the economies of northern and north western Europe; and secondly, notwithstanding point one, it would be unlikely to bring about a climate similar to Labrador: we would still be an island(s) as oppsed to being part of as vast continental landmass stretching to the high arctic.

Regards

ACB

[snowsure]

This ice age-cometh nonsense is becoming tedious as it is not backed up by either logical argument or empirical data...can we please take on board the pertinent points made ad nauseam:

1. one average to slightly cooler winter/early spring in the Uk does not indicate of itself a change to the 1940-1975 colling, still less "The little Ice Age" much less the next ice age.

2. Increased snowfall in high latitudes/mountainous areas in the mid-latitudes may often result from milder winters [warmer air, all else being equal, can carry more moisture which, providing the warming is not utterly catastrophic, will mean a tendency to increased snowfall], as opposed to colder winters.

3. Take at the very least a continental and preferably a hemispheric and not a parochial national/regional view of winter weather.

4. Do not fall into the trap of quoting, out of context, a weeks severe weather in Florence/Athens/Vallodolid or wherever as evidence of anything except the fact that even southern Europe (esp if inland/at altitude) can experience sever spells in some winters.

5. Although debate rages as to the appropriate length of time to measure climate change in human/historical time one or two or even a handful of cold winters whilst interesting proive very little as to long term trends.

6. A little intellectual humility never goes amiss (i.e. qualify assertions, admit contrary evidence and avoid grandstanding absolute assertions: they only invite ridicule from those who are a somewhat wiser).

7. Finally may we please stop the nonsense of wishing the North Atlantic Drift to disappear: first it would bring about a very damaging change to the economies of northern and north western Europe; and secondly, notwithstanding point one, it would be unlikely to bring about a climate similar to Labrador: we would still be an island(s) as oppsed to being part of as vast continental landmass stretching to the high arctic.

Regards

ACB

1 - A blip may be that. However it may be the start of a change of trend, a point of inflexion.

2 - Increased snowfall will increase the planetary albedo thus affecting the amount of warming experienced.

3 - If my car bursts into flames there is no sense in looking at my neighbours - or all the streets - cars and seeing if it is a general or specialised event. My car is still on fire!

4 - Freaky things happen (GW?)

5 - See point 1

6 - Good point for all sides to consider.

7 - This contradicts with some other comments on this excellent forum. i.e. "The NAD is a bit-player in the global climate machine." (Not my sentiment.) Will a major NAD decrease cause major or minor economic problems?

[Metomania]

1 - A blip may be that. However it may be the start of a change of trend, a point of inflexion.

2 - Increased snowfall will increase the planetary albedo thus affecting the amount of warming experienced.

3 - If my car bursts into flames there is no sense in looking at my neighbours - or all the streets - cars and seeing if it is a general or specialised event. My car is still on fire!

4 - Freaky things happen (GW?)

5 - See point 1

6 - Good point for all sides to consider.

7 - This contradicts with some other comments on this excellent forum. i.e. "The NAD is a bit-player in the global climate machine." (Not my sentiment.) Will a major NAD decrease cause major or minor economic problems?

ACB's post was excellent and I don't really think, with all due respect, you've dealt with his points adequately; although you have made a couple of valid ones.

1. & 5. It may be the start of a trend, but ...

3. ... how can you pluck an isolated incident and project it as a worldwide theory? This is where your car argument is fallacious. By your analogy the theory should be this: all cars are now starting to burst into flames. How do I know this? Because when I looked out of my window this morning my car was on fire. Global Warming is, by definition, a global issue and to take one local variation and use that as an argument on a global scale would be kindergarten behaviour (I'm not accusing you of that of course). So, we had an average winter in the UK. Big deal. North America has one of its warmest winters on record (just waiting to see if it was the warmest). Get a global perspective or be a scientific laughing stock (again that's not written to you personally). Edit - mind you, if we do start seeing global changes these must by the same token be taken seriously. At the moment the global signs are very much for warming, and at an increasing speed.

4. Although you make a good point (freaky things happen), I think you miss the point ACB was making. People have a tendency to take an isolated event and use it as an argument for widespread change. See my response above.

7. NAD shutdown would be pretty bad news for UK PlC. Fortunately I think it's as likely as being able to walk to the moon.

2. There is no proven causal link between snow cover and temperatures, although Metcheck do persist in using the idea. But more to the point, snow cover high up may occur, but places lower down would experience less cover and, geographically, that means less landmass snow coverage (lower areas would see snow cover spread over a wider surface area). This is not abstract. Excellent snowfall in the Rockies this year, but places which normally have snow cover for 3 months over wide areas had zilch (eg the Calgary plain).

Edited April 20, 2006 by Metomania

[snowsure]

ACB's post was excellent and I don't really think, with all due respect, you've dealt with his points adequately; although you have made a couple of valid ones.

7. NAD shutdown would be pretty bad news for UK PlC. Fortunately I think it's as likely as being able to walk to the moon.

2. There is no proven causal link between snow cover and temperatures, although Metcheck do persist in using the idea. But more to the point, snow cover high up may occur, but places lower down would experience less cover and, geographically, that means less landmass snow coverage (lower areas would see snow cover spread over a wider surface area). This is not abstract. Excellent snowfall in the Rockies this year, but places which normally have snow cover for 3 months over wide areas had zilch (eg the Calgary plain).

I didn't attempt to adequately deal with his points, I just wished to add a caveat to them.

Thank you for keeping your comments non-personal as that contributes to a useful debate.

Point 7 is not your finest hour though. How possible is it to walk to the moon? How likely is a NAD slowdown? Do the 2 equate?

Also point 2 appears to ignore the albedo effect. Or have I miss-read your comments?

Valid points otherwise.

[The Eagle]

Werent so-called 'scientists' in the 70s telling us an Ice age was imminent after a couple of cold winters :lol: What **** that turned out to be and the latest tripe is nothing more then scare-mongering, enviromentalist, 'we should all live in tents again' joke. The next Ice age will occur long after were dead and gone :lol:

[Metomania]

Werent so-called 'scientists' in the 70s telling us an Ice age was imminent after a couple of cold winters :lol: What **** that turned out to be and the latest tripe is nothing more then scare-mongering, enviromentalist, 'we should all live in tents again' joke. The next Ice age will occur long after were dead and gone :lol:

I can remember after the 1976 summer headlines like 'The Dry Years are Here to Stay' with dire predictions of water shortages. And then we had the August bank holiday that year and it wasn't talked about much after that!

Snowsure - thanks for comments. Re. 7 I just think there's no likelihood of NAD shutdown.

[Methuselah]

Werent so-called 'scientists' in the 70s telling us an Ice age was imminent after a couple of cold winters :lol: What **** that turned out to be and the latest tripe is nothing more then scare-mongering, enviromentalist, 'we should all live in tents again' joke. The next Ice age will occur long after were dead and gone :lol:

Yes. But that was using only Milankovitch cycles?? :lol:

These days, we are more aware of our own influence on things...

[The Penguin]

These days, we are more aware of our own influence on things...

Are we though? That seems to be the single most disputed proposition throughout these discussions – in fact this entire forum, ‘Environment change’, is kept going almost purely around that debate. (Excluding obviously the lobbyists who either believe “yesterday was chilly so global warming is balderdash” or “last winter was remarkably mild so we’re all going to hell”.) Most people recognise that weather in the recent past has been different from previously, I grant you, but how and why and (possibly, just possibly,) by whom this was initiated is still open to debate. Or at least I hope it is.

[acbrixton]

Snowsure?Icicles:

1. Although I am certainly no expert on the albedo effect my assumption is that a rather localised temporary/seasonal increase in snowcover over a limited area (e.g. the Rockies) is unlikely to have much effect on albedo (I think Meteomania has also dealt with this...)

2. I can, just, recall some speculation on the coming of the next ice age/global cooling in about 1975 (I was only 15 at the time and can only recall an article in National Geographic). That speculation came at the end of a short-lived but quite noticeable period of global cooling from about 1940-1975. I would be interested to learn how widespread/distinguished such speculation was...

Regards

ACB

[Terminal Moraine]

From what I remember the speculation was quite widespread but there seemed to be as many experts expressing doubt as agreeing with the idea. It certainly gained some popular appeal through books such as Nigel Calder's 'The Weather Machine And The threat of Ice'

T.M

[Methuselah]

Are we though? That seems to be the single most disputed proposition throughout these discussions – in fact this entire forum, ‘Environment change’, is kept going almost purely around that debate. (Excluding obviously the lobbyists who either believe “yesterday was chilly so global warming is balderdash” or “last winter was remarkably mild so we’re all going to hell”.) Most people recognise that weather in the recent past has been different from previously, I grant you, but how and why and (possibly, just possibly,) by whom this was initiated is still open to debate. Or at least I hope it is.

Nothing wrong with a bit of 'dispute' though, Penguin?

That said, I do feel that we are 'generally' more aware of our various contributions to effects on the longer scale...Where I am not nearly so sure though - is whether we are any more minded to do anything about it?

[acbrixton]

From what I remember the speculation was quite widespread but there seemed to be as many experts expressing doubt as agreeing with the idea. It certainly gained some popular appeal through books such as Nigel Calder's 'The Weather Machine And The threat of Ice'

T.M

TM thanks for that.

Regards

ACB

[Mr Sleet]

There will be another ice age, as sure as eggs is eggs. In fact, we are still in one. 90% of the Earth's history has been totally ice free , and I mean totally.

The definition of ice age is the presence of ice somewhere on the surface of the Earth, even if it is a 5 square metre patch in the middle of the Antarctic . If anyone has a different definition, I'd love to hear it.

All this was on a rather good Geology programme ( British) on Beeb 2 a couple of years ago.

Edited April 21, 2006 by Mr Sleet