Latest Arctic Report As Of 31/3/06

[carinthian]

Hi OP, The Arctic Ocean is 100% ice cover at the present, so that is average. The Greenland Basin is slightly less than average for this time of year, but was above average in the Autumn months. I wouldn't look to much into the Arctic cryoshere images and comparision reports over the past 20 years. Reporting and accurracy of ice extent and thickness is still evolving with new technology. I can remember 25 years ago that Geostationary Satellite views from Metestat 1 even measured ice slush eddies as permanent ice cover. So all I can advise is to be careful not to read too much into some of these gloom reports. The only reports that I take as being the most accurrate come from the Danish Met Institue climatologist.

C

Hi,

Forecast wind chill of -25C for Jan Mayen up wind for this weekend with blowing snow. Brr.

C

[John Cox]

Greetings,

Latest surface and upper air data show a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap. Cold air is expected to push from the Arctic into the Iceland Basin towards the end of the week. Deepest pool is likely to spread into Ireland over the weekend.

C

Hi Carinthian,

You are the best forecaster here on NW (Well second to John Holmes)

Three days ago you made this forecast and tonight we have had a temp of 2.5C and heavy sleet and hail.

It gets colder than the cold of late.

Well done

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian,

You are the best forecaster here on NW (Well second to John Holmes)

Three days ago you made this forecast and tonight we have had a temp of 2.5C and heavy sleet and hail.

It gets colder than the cold of late.

Well done

Hello John,

Thanks for those kind words and yes it is snowing now as I type! ( second to the old mistro himself ) what a great honour !

Cheers

C

[summer blizzard]

Can somebody post the chart for the Greenland ice extent in relation to average please????

[carinthian]

Hi OP, The Arctic Ocean is 100% ice cover at the present, so that is average. The Greenland Basin is slightly less than average for this time of year, but was above average in the Autumn months. I wouldn't look to much into the Arctic cryoshere images and comparision reports over the past 20 years. Reporting and accurracy of ice extent and thickness is still evolving with new technology. I can remember 25 years ago that Geostationary Satellite views from Metestat 1 even measured ice slush eddies as permanent ice cover. So all I can advise is to be careful not to read too much into some of these gloom reports. The only reports that I take as being the most accurrate come from the Danish Met Institue climatologist.

C

Hello,

The very latest ice reports from the Denmark Strait show a April advance of the main ice sheet 7/10th plus towards the NW corner of Iceland , situated at 24 degrees west on the Arctic circle ( about 25NM ) from landfall.

The is the closest for some years. Greenland senors show a retained cold pool over its ice cap. The down flow of very cold surface air continues to mix with a prolonged spell of NEly airflow with Arctic origins in the Denmark Strait. These are great conditions to prolonged the "life expectancy" of spring ice in this region.

C

[John Cox]

Hello,

The very latest ice reports from the Denmark Strait show a April advance of the main ice sheet 7/10th plus towards the NW corner of Iceland , situated at 24 degrees west on the Arctic circle ( about 25NM ) from landfall.

The is the closest for some years. Greenland senors show a retained cold pool over its ice cap. The down flow of very cold surface air continues to mix with a prolonged spell of NEly airflow with Arctic origins in the Denmark Strait. These are great conditions to prolonged the "life expectancy" of spring ice in this region.

C

Hi Carinthian,

With a very cold (relatively speaking) spring in the North Atlantic these observations are not surprising.

All we need is for this continue with a short summer and an early winter and we have the makings of a memorably cold coming winter.

Fingers crossed.

[Devonian]

Time for a sea ice reality check.

Sea ice in the Greenland Sea is of below normal area and extent. The Odden ice tongue has, to the best of my knowledge, been entirely absent this winter - that's most unusual (and this means little if any deep water being produced as a consequence of ice formation and consequent brine rejection). Sea ice area and extent in the Iceland/Greenland area is way less than during the peak years of the late '60's - way less, there's no comparison. The sea ice is miles away from Jan Mayen (though it used to often reach the island).

Sea ice extent and area looks below normal in the Sea of Okhotsk, along the Labrador coast/Gulf of St Lawrence and in the Barents Sea.

Sea ice has been fairly extensive in the Baltic (though, only compared with recent years). It's, as of today, now back below normal extent.

Other areas look about normal. I can't see anywhere with significanly above normal extents or areas of ice.

The net resources I've used:

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archive...age_select.html

http://met.no/kyst_og_hav/iskart.html

http://www.bsh.de/en/Marine%20data/Observa...e/Ice/index.jsp

http://www.fimr.fi/en/itamerikanta/itameri...jaatilanne.html

http://www.fimr.fi/stc/itamerinyt/attachments/jaakartta.pdf

http://www.physorg.com/news63552889.html

[carinthian]

Time for a sea ice reality check.

Sea ice in the Greenland Sea is of below normal area and extent. The Odden ice tongue has, to the best of my knowledge, been entirely absent this winter - that's most unusual (and this means little if any deep water being produced as a consequence of ice formation and consequent brine rejection). Sea ice area and extent in the Iceland/Greenland area is way less than during the peak years of the late '60's - way less, there's no comparison. The sea ice is miles away from Jan Mayen (though it used to often reach the island).

Sea ice extent and area looks below normal in the Sea of Okhotsk, along the Labrador coast/Gulf of St Lawrence and in the Barents Sea.

Sea ice has been fairly extensive in the Baltic (though, only compared with recent years). It's, as of today, now back below normal extent.

Other areas look about normal. I can't see anywhere with significanly above normal extents or areas of ice.

The net resources I've used:

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archive...age_select.html

http://met.no/kyst_og_hav/iskart.html

http://www.bsh.de/en/Marine%20data/Observa...e/Ice/index.jsp

http://www.fimr.fi/en/itamerikanta/itameri...jaatilanne.html

http://www.fimr.fi/stc/itamerinyt/attachments/jaakartta.pdf

http://www.physorg.com/news63552889.html

Hello,

Naughty little post ! What is your reality comparison.? What methods of measurement and accurracy are you comparing ? Do you have access to Acrtic data in the 1960s ? Which decade or decades ? I agree that the late 1960s reaches a peak during the last century.

[Devonian]

Hello,

Naughty little post ! What is your reality comparison.? What methods of measurement and accurracy are you comparing ? Do you have access to Acrtic data in the 1960s ? Which decade or decades ? I agree that the late 1960s reaches a peak during the last century.

It might be 'naughty. but is it wrong? I think not and I stand by it

Comparisons? The averages used by NSIDC and the Finnish plus other bit and pieces I've read (two current issue of the RMS 'Weather' magazine are devoted to the state of the polar regions).

Why do you think the satellite data isn't accurate (well, to it's stated degree)? I've seen no one really question it - the people from Denmark and other places know what they are doing and the problems/how to solve the probelm with the data - imo.

[Metomania]

Id say we are almost certainly going to see a new Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice minimum this summer. Ice levels have been at least a million sq km below average for around 2 months now, at a time when ice levels usually recover due to the Arctic being at its coldest during March.

[Could it be we've finally reached a point where the sea ice can no longer recover? if this continues throughout the year, it could be safe to say the answer is yes.

Yes, and I agree.

Shocking report in today's Telegraph about sea ice melt in the arctic circle. The Oceanographic Institute at Massachusetts reports water as warm as 7C at the moment in parts of the shelf from the Bering Sea to the south - more than 6C higher than at the same time two years ago. Ice melt this extensive, this early in the season, is shocking. Rather than listening to 'oh yes it is, oh no it isn't' posts from cold rampers vs mild rampers, the facts speak for themselves. These graphs are pretty shocking, showing that we're indeed about to see the lowest ice levels in the northern hemisphere this summer, and unprecedented ice melt. GW incontrovertible on this sort of evidence ...

Edited April 15, 2006 by Metomania

[carinthian]

It might be 'naughty. but is it wrong? I think not and I stand by it

Comparisons? The averages used by NSIDC and the Finnish plus other bit and pieces I've read (two current issue of the RMS 'Weather' magazine are devoted to the state of the polar regions).

Why do you think the satellite data isn't accurate (well, to it's stated degree)? I've seen no one really question it - the people from Denmark and other places know what they are doing and the problems/how to solve the probelm with the data - imo.

Hello Devonian,

You seem an expert in this field . Whom am I to argue ?

I have studied Arctic ice shelves and extent of ice flows in the Arctic Ocean ever since I joined the Met Office in 1969. This restless circulating mass has always been very difficult to meassure accurately, even with todays ultra senor satellite data. As late as the 1970s the information supplied to me by Geostationary Satellites produced vague measurements that included sea eddies traced out by slush and water mixtures. So we have to be careful when making comparisions for each decade or so. Measurements of todays sea ice extent and thickness is always likely to be more precise. I only report on the conditions as I see it and more importantly rely on a lot of personal experience into reading the available supply of data to which I have access to. I report as I see it. At the end of the day the recording of sea ice extent is still evolving and is open consequencial evidence.

Carinthian

[Metomania]

I only report on the conditions as I see it and more importantly rely on a lot of personal experience into reading the available supply of data to which I have access to. I report as I see it. At the end of the day the recording of sea ice extent is still evolving and is open consequencial evidence.

Carinthian

Hi Carinthian. Whilst observations are always very useful, and make a great contribution to scientific endeavour we need as extensive and objective a means for measurement as possible. I've just posted two graphs above that are very difficult to argue with, and a report from the Masachussets Insitute who are researching in this area. I'm afraid, notwithstanding your 'observations' it does look as if we are in uncharted territories in terms of ice-melt now this year.

[Devonian]

Hello Devonian,

You seem an expert in this field . Whom am I to argue ?

I have studied Arctic ice shelves and extent of ice flows in the Arctic Ocean ever since I joined the Met Office in 1969. This restless circulating mass has always been very difficult to meassure accurately, even with todays ultra senor satellite data. As late as the 1970s the information supplied to me by Geostationary Satellites produced vague measurements that included sea eddies traced out by slush and water mixtures. So we have to be careful when making comparisions for each decade or so. Measurements of todays sea ice extent and thickness is always likely to be more precise. I only report on the conditions as I see it and more importantly rely on a lot of personal experience into reading the available supply of data to which I have access to. I report as I see it. At the end of the day the recording of sea ice extent is still evolving and is open consequencial evidence.

Carinthian

, I'm just a farmer with a keen weather (and sea ice) interest. I don't think the reliable sat data goes back past '79? Certainly the data easily available starts then. And certainly the NSIDC seem in little doubt about the lack of ice atm - http://nsidc.org/news/press/20060404_winterrecovery.html

Perhaps we can agree there isn't an excess of ice this year?

[Metomania]

, I'm just a farmer with a keen weather (and sea ice) interest. I don't think the reliable sat data goes back past '79? Certainly the data easily available starts then. And certainly the NSIDC seem in little doubt about the lack of ice atm - http://nsidc.org/news/press/20060404_winterrecovery.html

Perhaps we can agree there isn't an excess of ice this year?

Great link Devonian - says it all, so you don't need to back down. You are clearly right to have said what you did. That graph within the link is deeply shocking. Here it is in all its awful glory:

(p.s. I take it you are in Devon? I'm in Exeter ...)

Edited April 15, 2006 by Metomania

[Devonian]

Great link Devonian - says it all, so you don't need to back down. You are clearly right to have said what you did. That graph within the link is deeply shocking. Here it is in all its awful glory:

(p.s. I take it you are in Devon? I'm in Exeter ...)

Not far away, east Dartmoor. Handy for the Met O

[Metomania]

Not far away, east Dartmoor. Handy for the Met O

Indeed - I'm within a stone's throw. Great site, and good people there!

[carinthian]

, I'm just a farmer with a keen weather (and sea ice) interest. I don't think the reliable sat data goes back past '79? Certainly the data easily available starts then. And certainly the NSIDC seem in little doubt about the lack of ice atm - http://nsidc.org/news/press/20060404_winterrecovery.html

Perhaps we can agree there isn't an excess of ice this year?

Hi Devonian, great to read about your keen interest in this fascinating subject. Perhaps if you read my first post on this discussion(31/3/06) you will be able to read more into what I report.

Cheers

C

[Cloudburst]

i carnt really see global warming affecting our (u.k) climate much really. Rising temps melt Icecap, this shuts down the gulf stream. Our weather shifts to what should dominate at this Long Lat (i.e cold long winters, rubbish summers), but an overall cooler climate. Now if global temps go up by say 7C by the time the Gulf shuts off, surely it would counterbalance?.

[Devonian]

Hi Devonian, great to read about your keen interest in this fascinating subject. Perhaps if you read my first post on this discussion(31/3/06) you will be able to read more into what I report.

Cheers

C

Sure, not really disagreeing with what you write more with what the thread to some extent misses - the general LACK of ice this sping in the Arctic (as shown by the NSIDC data and others). We live in sea ice deficient times, though I do take notice of the shortness of the satellite data record and the paucity of data from say the 1930's when sea ice may (with each recent decline this surely become less likely) have been at similar low extents.

i carnt really see global warming affecting our (u.k) climate much really. Rising temps melt Icecap, this shuts down the gulf stream. Our weather shifts to what should dominate at this Long Lat (i.e cold long winters, rubbish summers), but an overall cooler climate. Now if global temps go up by say 7C by the time the Gulf shuts off, surely it would counterbalance?.

7C! Lets get some perspective here . A cooling of 2C would plunge us into something worse than a Little Ice Age, 7C warming would, I'm quite sure, be disasterous.

[Metomania]

Rising temps melt Icecap, this shuts down the gulf stream. Our weather shifts to what should dominate at this Long Lat (i.e cold long winters, rubbish summers), but an overall cooler climate. Now if global temps go up by say 7C by the time the Gulf shuts off, surely it would counterbalance?.

Sorry, but this way lies madness methinketh. We're playing with fire. There is absolutely no guarantee that this warm-up will actually shut down the gulf stream. It's one theory that is as yet totally untested. Pinning our hopes that ice-melt will stop the gulf stream is like a rival team hoping the winning driver is going to run out of petrol on the peunultimate lap. It might happen, but it's a hell of a risky strategy.

[Cloudburst]

Sure, not really disagreeing with what you write more with what the thread to some extent misses - the general LACK of ice this sping in the Arctic (as shown by the NSIDC data and others). We live in sea ice deficient times, though I do take notice of the shortness of the satellite data record and the paucity of data from say the 1930's when sea ice may (with each recent decline this surely become less likely) have been at similar low extents.

7C! Lets get some perspective here . A cooling of 2C would plunge us into something worse than a Little Ice Age, 7C warming would, I'm quite sure, be disasterous.

That was more of a 'if this happens, therefore this would result' statement, although i would say that projection would be about 250-300 years away. a 7c climb would certainly be disasterous to say the least!

Sorry, but this way lies madness methinketh. We're playing with fire. There is absolutely no guarantee that this warm-up will actually shut down the gulf stream. It's one theory that is as yet totally untested. Pinning our hopes that ice-melt will stop the gulf stream is like a rival team hoping the winning driver is going to run out of petrol on the peunultimate lap. It might happen, but it's a hell of a risky strategy.

The gulf stream will eventully stop becuase of fresh water overbalance, and there is of course the laws of science backing this theory up. As fresh water has less energy it absorbs alot more before becoming self contained, where as salt in water can carry heat exchange fr alot longer. Its happening whether people like it or not, its just a question of how much of the polar cap will melt and how strong the current state of water can resist the mixing of fresh water.

[Rollo]

Sorry, but this way lies madness methinketh. We're playing with fire. There is absolutely no guarantee that this warm-up will actually shut down the gulf stream. It's one theory that is as yet totally untested. Pinning our hopes that ice-melt will stop the gulf stream is like a rival team hoping the winning driver is going to run out of petrol on the peunultimate lap. It might happen, but it's a hell of a risky strategy.

I read these posts re the Arctic Ice with great interest but it has to be said that I look at it from a laymans viewpoint but that 7c figure has to be extremely worrying. As you say any gulf stream slowdown is unproven and it seem to me we are now in dangerous territory,we should indeed be alarmed about the future.

[Bottesford]

Well lets hope we don't ever loose the gulf stream. The consequences would be disasterous for western Europe. Expect widespread power cuts, massive economic & environmental problems and some very unpleasent weather. Fingers crossed it stays with us forever.

[frozen_north]

7C wont happen, it is invented by the doomongers at greenpeace and the likes to scare everyone. Does nobody remember that the earth has gone through warming and cooling periods before and we are still technically in an ice age.

[Metomania]

7C wont happen, it is invented by the doomongers at greenpeace and the likes to scare everyone. Does nobody remember that the earth has gone through warming and cooling periods before and we are still technically in an ice age.

I think we've strayed from the point. It is 7C at the moment in the Bering sea - a full 6C above the norm. That's an astonishing and deeply disturning anomaly which is not the stuff of future nightmares, but happening now.

The gulf stream will eventully stop becuase of fresh water overbalance, and there is of course the laws of science backing this theory up.

No it's just an idea. No-one knows if fresh water in that concentration will 1. have much effect and 2. have enough effect to outweigh the other factors. It's pure conjecture.