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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
i give up.................

That's a shame really...I was looking-forward to having some evidence to assess. :unsure:

That is how science is supposed to work, isn't it? :mellow:

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
Another possibility? :mellow:

After 20 years' of nearly non-existent winters, we have all become conditioned to expect mild weather? When the weather does get more 'normal', we all start to feel cold; whereas in the 'olden days' we just got on with it... :unsure:

I'm sure you're right, Peter. Drgl, you can say what you believe until you are "blue in the face", but the only way these things can be judged is by a long string of objective measurements, as we all have different impressions and memories. Sorry, Noggin! It's not that you are not seeing more of these cold-weather phenomena than you're used to (I suspect you're both quite young), it's just the degree and frequency of the cold is always going to be subjectively assessed and remembered.

My impressions and memories are significantly different to yours with regard to winters gradually getting back to 'normal'. This winter has been generally colder, yes, but in my part of the S East there's been bugger-all snow - less than '05, which was less than '04, which was less than '03; and although there's been good snow in many other places there've been no seriously cold temps, even over the snow fields. So the last five years "slowly returning to more cold, ice and snow" simply does not accord with my own experience. And in any case round here the wintry phenomena are nothing like they were in 81-2, 85, 86, 87, briefly in 91 - it is still much, much less wintry in winter than it used to be.

Where does that leave us? Different people with different subjective impressions. All great fun, I'm sure, but not much good in discussions of climate change. That's why we have to look at boring old hard, measureable facts.

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

I've been reading this discussion with interest and now it's time to throw my hat in the ring, so to speak.

I believe that the Gulf Stream will shut down or divert but not in our lifetime. Given the amount of meltwater from Greeland and the freshwater from rivers swollen with more rain (obviously not the Thames) it is surely a matter of time before the GS is altered in some way.

There can be little question that the globe is warming, whether it is anthropogenic or cyclical or a mixture will, I'm sure, be discovered over time. What is certain, IMO, is that although the planet may warm, parts of it will cool while some will warm more than the average and Northern Europe could do either.

It is also my opinion that weather paterns are cyclical and in the period from 1988 to late 2004 most of the weather was zonal. Since about November 2004 the Atlantic has been, for the most part, pretty quiet and I believe that it will remain so for a while (perhaps a decade or 2). I cant say if this is connected to the Gulf Stream or any other factor, it is something that I have observed.

If our prevailing synoptics have changed then I expect we will experience a slight cooldown in comparison to recent years that may last until the 2020's. Perhaps not to the same degree as the early 80's but it may be a while before we have a year with a CET greater than 10c again.

AM

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Some places are warming and some places are cooling.

Historical temperature graphs from around the world

Comments like

if the Gulf stream continues to slow down

amuse me because there is no evidence that the gulf stream is slowing down in fact possibly the reverse is true. Possibly you can argue that there are changes to the NAD (North Atlantic drift) and the Labrador and Irminger currents. There are definate changes in the formation of NADW (North Atlantic Deep Water ). The critical point about the Thermohaline circulation is the point where NADW forms or the sinking zones. These can be shutdown due to fresh water surface layers but must restart up else where. If they restart further south then our climate gets colder.

Gulf Stream Velocities Comparisons

Despite this I do believe that this winter and the previous one have been different synoptically. Some of this may be due to multidecadal cycles changing the weather . Most importantly the changes reflect occurances in the stratosphere. Understanding the complexities of the north atlantic currents is a difficult job and sweeping statements about shutdown and a colder climate should be tempered with a more in depth explanation of how and why.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
That's a shame really...I was looking-forward to having some evidence to assess. :(

That is how science is supposed to work, isn't it? :)

The evidence i have is the day's in my diary where i have recorded snow,frost or ice. That coupled with pictures(although i have only been keeping photographic records for two years) Still way to early to say 100% but i stand by what i have said. I lived through the late 70's and early 80's winters and no-we are still way off them. But since 2000 things have been getting colder. The next 5-10 years will be the interesting times IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

BrickFielder, if i remember correctly there was actually some studies going on stating that infact 25% of the sinking sites have stopped...well sinking so it does bed the question, where have they reformed.

For the time being I can't see the gulf stream slowing down though, it looks just as strong as normal but if it was to slow then you'd soon see the SST's drop away.

As for the difference about the last 2 winters, I'd agree with BrickFielder.

Also, one final thought, surely if the HP belt that has given us so many bartlett's in the past keeps moving northwards eventually it would start to feed us in easterlies, prehaps thats what we've seen this winter???

I firmly believe that what is occurs during warm-ups on the earth, a new Hp belt forms and over anumber of years progresses northwards and the jet stream pushes northwards with it, we then gop into a mild phase of winters. Eventually the jet and HP belt get so far north that the HP cell actually starts to re-pump colder air back southwards in winter and a new path for the jet stream is formed further south, then the whole thing starts again.

That's what I think anyway based on what seems to have occured in the past.

(ps, remember, cold is only relative to the base,so while we have average temps now, compared to the base over recent years, it's actually been a fairly chilly start to the year.)

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Guest Mike W

If we were emmiting the same amount of unsavoury SO2 and soot as we were in say the 60's or to a lesser extent the 70's I think we would have had lower CET's in recent years and I don't we would have had the post 1988 warming, certainly to the extent we have had, I'm not advocating the stuff by the way, just saying if we dealt with CO2 first instead of SO2, it wouldn't have been warming we would be worrying about thats all. That Iron fertilization idea looks interesting, SO2 is certainly a 2-edged sword to say the least.

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Guest Daniel
Daniel, I always enjoy your rabid posts regarding impending armageddon. I'm afraid that marshalling a few unusually (though far from exceptionally) cold March days is no proof of anything other than a current spell of cold weather. As magpie, TWS, PT and Scribbler various suggest, there is NO evidence to be gleaned from this winter regarding anything. Even in an upward trend there will be cold spells, be it of odd days in a single winter, several days in 2-3 winters, or a week or more in 5 or so winters: that much is simple statisitical variation about a mean.

What can be said, at most, from recent winters, is that the very rapid warming into the late 90s has been arrested, but whether this is the start of a downward trend, or a pause before more upwards movement, is too early to tell (although all the climate models suggest the latter I'm afriad). Those of you citing the last two winters as if they were dramatically cool might care to reflect on the plot below. They were still WARM winters.

post-364-1142287580.jpg

Like I said Saying a cold spell is the start of cooling is no more differnt then saying every heat wave or warm spell is the cause of Global Warming. Howevere there a very strong case in my view that a strong cooling will begin in the near future. The gulf stream is weaking and not only that there are some rapid changes in Greeland. Now the cooling I think will at first be only around 2 degrees drop in average temps with a 30% weaking of the Gulf Stream. This will mean a much cooler climate with longer colder winters and cooler summers. The reports of on gulf have been cooming in fast and thick in the last few years with real changes being messured. Of course climate does not change over night and it only now with this cooler winter and cold in March that the first effects are taking place. In the Longer term a much greater cooling may well happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Location: Worcestershire

Well i mean the fact we have had colder weather doesnt mean our climate itself is cooling down. Think about it, to our north, north east and east, in winter are very cold plumes of air. All it needs is a slight change in wind direction or pressure core movement and it draws the air over us, this doesnt mean our climate is cooling, surely if our climate was cooling we would see this effect all through the year, when in actual fact the years are proving to not stick to a definet pattern. The earth is always dynamic so surely no definet pattern can be given as it could suddenly change thus rendering the pattern useless. I dont see any evidence of the globes temperature decreasing at present, and are we not currently recovering from the last 'mini' ice age?

and i believe that the climate is affected more by nature itself (i.e such as Volcanoes such as tambora, that created the last mini ice age in 1816).

Edited by ¤CloudBurst¤
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Using figures from the CRU, I have checked to find out just how cold this winter is (so far) by comparison with others since 1900.

The three winter months of 2005-6 have produced a CET of 13.2.

For the months of December, January and February, no less than 54 out of 105 years have had colder winters periods than this one.

1900 – 1909 - 7

1910 – 1919 - 6

1920 – 1929 - 4

1930 – 1939 - 4

1940 – 1949 - 6

1950 – 1959 - 8

1960 – 1969 - 6

1970 – 1979 - 4

1980 – 1989 - 6

1990 – 1999 - 3

Admittedly the last were 1995-6 and 1996-7, but that’s less than ten years ago.

Therefore we just have to admit that, as forecast, this winter is the worst for a decade – but it certainly isn’t exceptional and is hardly an omen of doom. :(

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Posted
  • Location: South of Glasgow 55.778, -4.086, 86m
  • Location: South of Glasgow 55.778, -4.086, 86m

I may be missing the point again but is what we remember of previous winters in each of our own little bits of the world really relevant. I’m in my late forties (though look much, much younger) and I remember playing in the snows of ’63 and travelling in February of that year from Scotland down to the Northeast of England through miles and miles of frighteningly deep snow, but I doubt if I can base my opinion of climate change on that experience.

There very probably are climate cycles that effect changes in chemical composition and temperature of the atmosphere over time. But I doubt if we’re talking about twenty years here, or fifty, or a hundred, or even a thousand years in the frequency of the events associated with them.

If I’m right, whether any of us felt colder last Christmas than this Christmas is hardly relevant to climatic change, or shifts in the ocean currents. Although such discussion does remain interesting in any general conversation about the weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

I was determined not to carry on with this discussion, but find myself irresistably drawn to it!

All I will say though, as a big general comment, is that the Atlantic is losing it's influence at a rate of knots and we are getting much more influence from the East. We can all speculate on effects and causes until the cows come home :blush: , but at the moment I feel all "speculated" out!

kind regards to all

a rather old noggin

Edited by noggin
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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Location: Worcestershire
I was determined not to carry on with this discussion, but find myself irresistably drawn to it!

All I will say though, as a big general comment, is that the Atlantic is losing it's influence at a rate of knots and we are getting much more influence from the East. We can all speculate on effects and causes until the cows come home :blush: , but at the moment I feel all "speculated" out!

kind regards to all

a rather old noggin

How do you explain the past (talking thousands of years) hot summers and warmer than average climate when ther was no Gulf stream?

in any case o.k so it will shut off, but if the global temperature goes up by 5c anyway, surely that will mean that we wouldnt really see any difference, temperature wise.

Edited by ¤CloudBurst¤
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
I was determined not to carry on with this discussion, but find myself irresistably drawn to it!

a rather old noggin

Can't let you retire yet!! :) Anyway, I'm older than you! :wacko:

On those BBC2 programs last night (the second one) someone (whose name I missed) was expounding on the effect of ice melt.

He suggested that the last time that the NAD shut down was after an ice age so there was an awful lot of ice melt.

He said that possibly there wasn't enough ice there now to cause a total shutdown.

Hi Cloudburst

I'm with you - on one hand warming - on the other cooling. The ice will run out but the heat wont! :blush:

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

I think us humans need to admit, we just dont have a clue whats really going on, its so complex and with so many factors involved interacting. There are similarities to past in some ways, others not, cycles and mechanisms unknown, this year seems to be a year more like past, there seems to be a slight return to normal British weather as we humans know of in the past 20 years....but what really is normal for Britain, Britain has been under ice, its been in tropical heat. I saw somewhere someone mentioned that before the last ice age CO2 was 12 times what it is now (cant find the post but I think it was Peter).....if so high then, how can this be a "runaway" scenario regarding CO2.

We just dont know and I think we still wont in 10 years time. Maybe in 50 or 100 we will.

Regardless of any climate change, natural or not, humans are messy, and could do with cleaning up after themselves, being more aware of the planet they live on and stop taking it for granted. Humans also need to be aware of the extreme changes climate can undergo naturally, ice to heat and back again, as Britain has in the past, and learn to adapt to it rather than argueing over the whys and wherefores and getting nowhere fast, climate change will happen, its happened past, possibly happening now and will happen again many times in the future.

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I think us humans need to admit, we just dont have a clue whats really going on, its so complex and with so many factors involved interacting. There are similarities to past in some ways, others not, cycles and mechanisms unknown, this year seems to be a year more like past, there seems to be a slight return to normal British weather as we humans know of in the past 20 years....but what really is normal for Britain, Britain has been under ice, its been in tropical heat. I saw somewhere someone mentioned that before the last ice age CO2 was 12 times what it is now (cant find the post but I think it was Peter).....if so high then, how can this be a "runaway" scenario regarding CO2.

We just dont know and I think we still wont in 10 years time. Maybe in 50 or 100 we will.

Regardless of any climate change, natural or not, humans are messy, and could do with cleaning up after themselves, being more aware of the planet they live on and stop taking it for granted. Humans also need to be aware of the extreme changes climate can undergo naturally, ice to heat and back again, as Britain has in the past, and learn to adapt to it rather than argueing over the whys and wherefores and getting nowhere fast, climate change will happen, its happened past, possibly happening now and will happen again many times in the future.

I disagree. We DO know, to a large degree of certainty. The overhelming concensus of the world's scientific community is that the Earth is warming and humans are largely to blame. Are you even questioning that the Earth is warming up? I thought absolutely everyone agreed on that.

I don't think it's complex either. To sum it up simply:

1. Humans produce vast amounts of CO2. Much of the CO2 stored up in the Earth for hundreds of millions of years is now being released in just a few hundred years. We're talking trillions of tons. Undeniable fact.

2. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. It traps the sun's heat in. Undeniable fact.

3. Carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly rapidly. It's now widely believed they are the highest they have been for at least 1 million years. This rapid increase largely started around the time of industrial revolution. Undeniable fact.

4. The Earth is warming up. Undeniable fact.

Looking at these 4 simple points, the only logical conclusion is that humans are causing this CO2 increase (the billions of tonnes we emit has to go somewhere). And since the Earth is warming up in line with CO2 emissions, surely it's obvious the most likely culprit is human activity.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

In regards to whether we are now seeing the begginings of a cooler climate, i think that the answer is yes however i believe the coming cooldown over the next five years will be due to the sunspot minima occuring in 2007 and 2011.

While i agree that the NAD is weakening at a alarming rate, i do not believe that we will see the effects of this for another ten to fifteen years.

In regards to the warm sea surface temperature anomolies in the Atlantic Ocean being caused by a strong NAD, would the warm sea surface temperature anomolies not be caused by a weakening NAD and the warm water from the Gulf Of Mexico not being moved northward at the average rate.

I also agree with Kold Weather regarding the movement of high pressure belts, as we saw in 2005, the Jet Stream was raging so far north that it ran out of steam, nature always balances out.

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester
  • Location: Winchester
Humans also need to be aware of the extreme changes climate can undergo naturally, ice to heat and back again, as Britain has in the past, and learn to adapt to it rather than argueing over the whys and wherefores and getting nowhere fast, climate change will happen, its happened past, possibly happening now and will happen again many times in the future.

brings up an interesting point.. short term changes aside, long term I imagine the climate is going to go through a 'natural variation' that is not great for us or any of the life we share the planet with. At that point I think I would say lets mess with the climate any way we can and try and make it more suitable for human life.. for instance if a new ice age kicked in or runaway global warming then why not use mass intervention to change the planets albedo, pump whatever gunk into the atmosphere that is required to turn it around - if the natural result has the potential to collapse our current civilization then what is there to loose..?

just seems to be that sometimes natural cycles are considered to be 'universally good' whereas inevitably at some point they are going to be bad news.. personally if that happens I say 'adapt it to us if at all possible'. :lol:

Trevw

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
I disagree. We DO know, to a large degree of certainty. The overhelming concensus of the world's scientific community is that the Earth is warming and humans are largely to blame. Are you even questioning that the Earth is warming up? I thought absolutely everyone agreed on that.

I don't think it's complex either. To sum it up simply:

1. Humans produce vast amounts of CO2. Much of the CO2 stored up in the Earth for hundreds of millions of years is now being released in just a few hundred years. We're talking trillions of tons. Undeniable fact.

2. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. It traps the sun's heat in. Undeniable fact.

3. Carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly rapidly. It's now widely believed they are the highest they have been for at least 1 million years. This rapid increase largely started around the time of industrial revolution. Undeniable fact.

4. The Earth is warming up. Undeniable fact.

Looking at these 4 simple points, the only logical conclusion is that humans are causing this CO2 increase (the billions of tonnes we emit has to go somewhere). And since the Earth is warming up in line with CO2 emissions, surely it's obvious the most likely culprit is human activity.

If it's that's simple why is there a large part of the scientific community going with a cooling theory? Exactly how many humans were around all of those thousands of years ago to take the samples/assess the gulf steam? err,none-it's all on ice samples/theories. FACT-Many parts of the world were under water thousands of years ago-that's why you can find sea creature fossils at the top of mountains!! The climate has changed before and is doing so now. In which direction no one knows for sure!! I bet if were were around back then and someone had said the sea levels will drop by that amount no one would listen(and we'd all think it was rediculous). The only way someone knows 100% what will happen is if they had a time machine!

I think us humans need to admit, we just dont have a clue whats really going on, its so complex and with so many factors involved interacting. There are similarities to past in some ways, others not, cycles and mechanisms unknown, this year seems to be a year more like past, there seems to be a slight return to normal British weather as we humans know of in the past 20 years....but what really is normal for Britain, Britain has been under ice, its been in tropical heat. I saw somewhere someone mentioned that before the last ice age CO2 was 12 times what it is now (cant find the post but I think it was Peter).....if so high then, how can this be a "runaway" scenario regarding CO2.

We just dont know and I think we still wont in 10 years time. Maybe in 50 or 100 we will.

Regardless of any climate change, natural or not, humans are messy, and could do with cleaning up after themselves, being more aware of the planet they live on and stop taking it for granted. Humans also need to be aware of the extreme changes climate can undergo naturally, ice to heat and back again, as Britain has in the past, and learn to adapt to it rather than argueing over the whys and wherefores and getting nowhere fast, climate change will happen, its happened past, possibly happening now and will happen again many times in the future.

couldn't agree more!!! As stated-the UK had been buried under ice and has been tropical-massive climate shifts!! But there were no cars,power stations etc back then were there? I'm NOT saying we aren't helping matters but the Earth has been there done that so's to speak before!! Someone please explain how those MASSIVE climate shifts happened WITHOUT human intervention?? Yes we need to clean up our act big time but i really don't buy this run away climate theory.

Edited by drgl
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What a brilliant discussion: thanks Noddin, drgl, Os, Kold, etc etc... :lol:

I do think that Kold has hit on an important point here; namely that synoptics are playing the biggest part of whatever is causing our winters' Atlantic influence's recent reduction... ;) I'm sure that Kold and I are seeing the same thing; but, to me, our winter blocks appear to be migrating westward as well as northward?

If I'm right about this, I'd expect to see a splendid, if not that hot by 1976 standards, summer in many northern and western parts of the UK particularly in 2006, followed by a winter with many potent northerly/northeasterly blasts in 2007... ;)

Should neither of these events transpire, then my hypothesis can be consigned to the dustbin! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Location: Worcestershire
What a brilliant discussion: thanks Noddin, drgl, Os, Kold, etc etc... :)

I do think that Kold has hit on an important point here; namely that synoptics are playing the biggest part of whatever is causing our winters' Atlantic influence's recent reduction... :) I'm sure that Kold and I are seeing the same thing; but, to me, our winter blocks appear to be migrating westward as well as northward?

If I'm right about this, I'd expect to see a splendid, if not that hot by 1976 standards, summer in many northern and western parts of the UK particularly in 2006, followed by a winter with many potent northerly/northeasterly blasts in 2007... :)

Should neither of these events transpire, then my hypothesis can be consigned to the dustbin! :lol:

;) . No i think your quite right with that, this summer is being predicted to be wamer than average, obviously the cooling effect in action. ;) :lol: ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
:lol: . No i think your quite right with that, this summer is being predicted to be wamer than average, obviously the cooling effect in action. ;);) :lol:

Thanks for the vote of confidence, Andy. But I'm not counting my chickens just yet...Btw, if I am wrong (very possible!), I'll learn something from my mistake...I just don't know exactly what yet! ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Location: Worcestershire
Thanks for the vote of confidence, Andy. But I'm not counting my chickens just yet...Btw, if I am wrong (very possible!), I'll learn something from my mistake...I just don't know exactly what yet! :lol:

Well, you along with the METO if you are wrong.(not that that will improve your confidence) :lol: ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Can't let you retire yet!! :) Anyway, I'm older than you! :( ....

Aww, thanks old man, sorry, I meant Scribbler! :D

I haven't managed to see the Beeb programmes yet, but should manage to today at some point.

There is something that is driving me nuts at the moment and that is re the Summer LRF. When I have looked at the MetO experimental LRF it shows cold/average more likely. So where, oh where are peeps getting this hot forecast from? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Aww, thanks old man, sorry, I meant Scribbler! :)

There is something that is driving me nuts at the moment and that is re the Summer LRF. When I have looked at the MetO experimental LRF it shows cold/average more likely. So where, oh where are peeps getting this hot forecast from? :doh:

Don't worry - I've been called a lot worse! :)

TWO suggests:

April - below average

May - close to or slightly above average.

Others seem to say much the same or worse.

The so-called "hot" forecasts are in the mind - wishful thinking perhaps! :)

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