Spring Forecasts

[Bottesford]

Interesting forecast there Roger and one I'd love to see proved right. Warm & dry sounds good for mid-late spring although maybe not so good for those water supplies down south...

[sunderlandweather]

there will be any more bad weather before march 15th

[MP-R]

Are we actually sure there's going to be really stormy weather at the end of May? That's the only bit that sounds like October. Everything else seems okay.

[summer blizzard]

Here is the forecast from Phillip Eden...

Forecast for March 2006: A WET MONTH; VERY COLD START THEN SOME WARM SPELLS

March is expected to be much more cyclonic than recent months, with northerly winds prominent during the first week or so; subsequently there should be no dominant wind direction although southerlies and easterlies are likely to become more frequent during the latter part of the month.

Taking the month as a whole, both mean maxima and mean minima should be below the long-term average, largely thanks to the extended cold spell during the first week or so. Thereafter temperatures should fluctuate either side of the average, with at least one short spell of notably warm weather during the second fortnight.

Rainfall is forecast to be above normal in nearly all parts of the UK, with highest percentages in southwest England and south Wales. Only northern Scotland is likely to escape with a drier-than-average March. The rain should be well distributed throughout the month. Appreciable snowfall is indicated during the first week, and there may be further local falls of snow around mid-month or just after.

Sunshine aggregates are expected to be below or much below average in most parts of the UK, but rather above average in northern Scotland.

Anomalies:

CET -0.9 degC

E&W rain 135%

E&W sun 80%

It looks like he expects a northerly toppler around midmonth, i also think that he has got the sunshine and rain the wrong way round.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page4.html

[telfordmc]

Hi guys i know i haven't posted much but,i heard somewhere if europe has got a huge covering in march of snow still when it melts, then it can effect the coming summer because the melting snow does something to the atmosphere:unsure:.Probably said it wrong lol!,but what do people think?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it's solar min and as such anticyclonic conditions will be favoured.............sunnier and drier than normal straight through spring and summer, Hurrah!!

[PersianPaladin]

I think it's solar min and as such anticyclonic conditions will be favoured.............sunnier and drier than normal straight through spring and summer, Hurrah!!

I don't want it to be sunny and dry straight through....

[noggin]

I don't do forecasts so here's a hopecast........

.....I eagerly await the huge number of posts confirming total agreement, he concluded ironically.

T.M

Sounds perfect to me!

Having just checked the MetO seasonal forecast, it seems that we are not in for even a warm late Spring /Summer. Just cold/cold to average being most likely.

[johnholmes]

there will be any more bad weather before march 15th

sorry, that does not really make sense to me!

Are you asking, will there be any more bad weather?

OR

are you saying there will not be any more bad weather before March 15th?

John

[Rollo]

I am not too optimistic about spring this year,a cold March is likely to be followed by a changeable April with about average temperatures,and May-who knows but lets hope 8it is warm dry and sunny.

[Yeti]

I don't do forecasts so here's a hopecast.

The cold weather at the beginning of March will gradually intensify as the month progresses bringing huge amounts of snow and a mean temp' comparable with that of 1674. The Arctic weather persists throughout April with frequent night frost, snow and hail, the month ends as the coldest since 1917. During early May Atlantic depressions try to push north eastward against a bitterly cold block resulting in the most severe late spring snowstorms since the 18th century.

By late May the huge snowdrifts begin to melt but the air is so chilled that we are led, whimpering, into the coldest and most adverse summer since man learned how to write.

After a couple of months of slow thawing the majority of the snow is gone, just in time for the early start of a winter so cold that, by comparison, 1684 is like mid-April and 1947 has a scattering of snow.

I eagerly await the huge number of posts confirming total agreement, he concluded ironically.

T.M

You wiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

Oh, how I would love to see the gfs try to cope

[Paul]

The net-weather spring forecast (written by Ian Brown) is now available here:

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?act...t;type=seasonal

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

March - Cool start, warmer midmonth with some rain, Sun and showers towards the end with temps at or slightly below average.

April - Sun and showers, average temps

May - Risk of thunderstorms, very warm at times

Quite vague I know

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interesting forecast there by Ian Brown, suggesting a less mild spring than we've been used to recently, but also quite a dry one.

I also note that his March forecast seems to be in broad agreement with mine, but with a much lower CET outturn. The intensity of mild and cold spells, relative to each other, would of course result in significantly different outcomes with regards the final CET. It will be interesting to see how spring pans out as Ian's seasonal forecasts have traditionally had a decent track record.

[summer blizzard]

Having looked at the PDO and QBO data for the past three months in an attempt to find suitable anologues, i have come up with the list below:

1901

1903

1904

1927

1922

1923

1924

1929

1949

1950

1957

1959

1968

1981

1984

1985

1987

Here are two charts which show the expected trend this spring based on those anologues, and as you can see it is not a modern pattern.

As you can see from that chart, we should expect a strongly positive PNA pattern with weak blocking over Greenland and a European Low.

As you can see from that chart, it favours a lot more high pressure however both charts favour a positive PNA pattern with a mean area of low pressure over the British Isles.

The air temperature charts both indicate below average values.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi folks

Springtime? or not! I foresee one main pattern developing, height rises over Greenland and/or Scandi leading to a theme that we see winds from a S//E//N predominance rather than sw/w/nw as of recent years. The main reciprients of rain when it occurs is the south of the UK rather than the north as LPs cross the UK or dive SE...generally maintaining the recent pattern. No seering heat and average temps to slightly below until May when we may get first real 'summer' warmth. Yes we will have warmth before but somewhat tempered by periods of cooler conditons. I picked up a tentative rolling 2 week pattern over the winter but probably monthly is more solid. I posted several days ago that last week or so of March 20thish on may well bring the coldest period of the month...we shall see with GHP being dominant in this. If this happens then I see continuance of similar set up into May and possibly beyond. I will give more detail when I have more time, prob next wekk

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi folks

Springtime? or not! I foresee one main pattern developing, height rises over Greenland and/or Scandi leading to a theme that we see winds from a S//E//N predominance rather than sw/w/nw as of recent years. The main reciprients of rain when it occurs is the south of the UK rather than the north as LPs cross the UK or dive SE...generally maintaining the recent pattern. No seering heat and average temps to slightly below until May when we may get first real 'summer' warmth. Yes we will have warmth before but somewhat tempered by periods of cooler conditons. I picked up a tentative rolling 2 week pattern over the winter but probably monthly is more solid. I posted several days ago that last week or so of March 20thish on may well bring the coldest period of the month...we shall see with GHP being dominant in this. If this happens then I see continuance of similar set up into May and possibly beyond. I will give more detail when I have more time, prob next wekk

BFTP

Just to add the models seem to show the continued rolling set up and I now have high confidence that we are unlikely to see 'warmth' equivalent of the 'hot' years. I think the GHP will show its face quite regularly this spring and through summer.

regards

BFTP

[conor123]

My Thoughts overall on this Month

CET: 4.8c (-1.4c)

Rainfall: 108% (Slightly Above Average)

Sunshine: 93% (Slightly Below Average)

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

This is my Spring Forecast. *

March

Summary: Cold turning milder to the end of the month.

The cold start to March should continue. The third week should continue the dry Greenland blocked theme with below average temperatures and dewpoints and risk of snowfall for all overnight. In the last week it will get warmer in the south as Azores High makes a brief presence to the south and west only the furthest North missing out on the highest temperatures. March will be below average temperature wise and on the dry side of precipitation.

CET: 4.7C

Rainfall: 95%

Sunshine: 95%

April

Summary: Cold bright beginning, turning wetter later.

It will feel a cool April compared with the warmth of recent times. Indeed the risk of widespread snowfall from polar air will plague all and surprise a few before the first weeks of the month are out as a number of trofs work their way across the north sea. Snow will not be a countrywide event and temperatures in west will be too high for lying snow. Overall rather drier than average first two weeks, as one would expect from a partially blocked set-up and the Azores High not yet in full dominance (although making its presence clear in the west and the other parts of the country between arctic pulses). This colder, brighter, drier first half will all give way to noticeably wetter (and warmer) weather as the month progresses and spring really makes its mark. By the end of the month rainfall and temperatures will end up either side of the average.

CET: Either side of average

Rainfall: Either side of average

Sunshine: 105%

May

Summary: Cool at times, hot in the sun.

May will in many ways be unremarkable this year. Refreshing westerly winds, strong at times as we leave April, will bring considerably wetter than average weather for some (flooding risk looks certain to be an issue in the usual places), interspersed with warm sunshine for the rest. Unfortunately the possibility of a High pressure block in the Atlantic cannot be ignored in the middle of the month. This will augur a change to grey clouds, rain and frankly dismal weather at times; though the East may be spared the worse by trofs bringing winds from a drier, sunnier continental direction. As we go into the final week things will settle down nicely and warm up nicely with a steady feed of air from the south and thunderstorms in places. In the west and north, further from the continent, it will cooler due to winds from a more northerly and westerly direction but they should too bathe in the much welcome sunshine.

CET: Above average

Rainfall: Above average

Sunshine: Below average

*This Spring Forecast is brought to you in association with AtlanticFlamethrower's private weather company Super-Secret Weather Forecasting Formulas Inc. This company is dedicated to the task of researching and producing my forecasts for me so you know exactly what is happening in the world of weather for the months ahead.

Edited March 13, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Yeti]

I'm going for a FREEZING March, but little idea beyond that. The synoptics look very blocked atm so will go with cold! :o

I enjoy reading your forecasts, thanks.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

i think that the ukmo has been very good these past few months as from what i have understood from them has been almost spot on and i think that my forecast has been correct in ways as i did mention the possible building of the high but i never thought it would make its way across to us until the end of the month and evryone else has made excellentr forecasts too well done to everyone and with 13 days left of march we will see who's first month of spring will be correct.

SNOW-MAN2006

[Peter Henderson]

From what I've heard from the statistics so far, this March could be one of the coldest on record and certainly since 1947. As I said a while ago if these setups had occured in Dec/Jan we would have had a bitterly cold winter with persistant snow and frost. Pity it's just a little too late.

I disagree that we are going to have a bad summer. The winter of 1974/75 was a very mild one but there was snow in early April. This was then followed by one of the warmest summers on record in NI with only 1968 and 1995 equalling it in terms of sunshine/warmth. 1976 was good on the mainland and not bad here but 1975 was better in NI.

I think since the weather patterns in March have been so unusual it might be logical to assume that those in the rest of the Spring (April/May), and summer(June/July/August) will be as well (from memory this seems to happen !). The unusually hot/sunny summer of 1995 was followed by a colder than usual winter and a white Christmas here. Rare for these parts !

When we get Easterly winds in late spring/summer it's usually dry and warm with a risk of thunderstorms. Don't forget that Scandanavia/Russia can get fairly warm

late May/early June !

[summer blizzard]

My updated forecast will be released sometime this weekend and i will be going as far as June, i can say that i expect a warm, thundry and wet June which may tie in with a few other forecasts suggesting a hot, thundry summer.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

my march forecast has seemed to iclude everything that has happened but in the wrog order. i did forecast the scandi highs possile rebuilding at the time of our easterly and unsettled mid month so ill reviw on april the 1st with my april forecast beign released aswell with the review

[summer blizzard]

April

My April, May and June forecasts are based upon teleconnection patterns over the past three months, there is a 50% confidence level in these forecasts.

Here is the raw data for April...

April week 1 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

April week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

April week 3 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

April week 4 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

April week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland due to a negative AO resulting in the the Greenland High beaurificating the Jet Stream however due to the Azores High ridging into Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northwards resulting in the mean wind direction being south westerly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

April week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA however the Jet Stream will be zonal and rise northward sharply due to a positive AO meaning that there is no ridge to berificate the Jet Stream and keep most of the energy on a southerly track and as a result the Azores High will ridge into Europe with a notherly tracking Jet Stream and a positive NAO will prevail for this week with the mean wind direction being southerly, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

April week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to the fact that there is a negative AO, the Jet Stream will be pushed south due to a trough in the central Atlantic however the Jet Stream will rise northward due to a ridge over eastern Europe resulting in a positive NAO and the mean wind direction being south easterly, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

April week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland due to a negative AO resulting in the the Greenland High beaurificating the Jet Stream however due to the Azores High ridging into Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northwards resulting in the mean wind direction being south westerly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

CET - 10.6C, 2.5C above average

Rainfall - Average

Sunshine - Average

May

Here is the raw data for May...

May week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

May week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

May week 3 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

May week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

May week 1 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA and will be kept on a southerly track by a Greenland ridge forcing the Jet Stream south due to a negative AO, with a easterly for the British Isles due to a ridge over Scandinavia and a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be average.

May week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland due to a negative AO resulting in the the Greenland High beaurificating the Jet Stream however due to the Azores High ridging into Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northwards resulting in the mean wind direction being south westerly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

May week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO which will force a positive NAO and the Azores High ridging into north western Europe resulting in the mean wind direction being southerly, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

May week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO however the Azores High will retrogress westward enougth for a north westerly outburst due to a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be average and sunshine will be average.

CET - 11.8C - 0.5C above average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

Spring summary

Assuming that the March CET is 4.5C, which is 1.9C below average, the overall Spring CET will be 9C, which is 0.9C below average, i expect rainfall will be below average and sunshine to be above average and as a result this spring will be categorised as cool, sunny and dry. I am expecting also March to contrast strongly with April which i expect to be very mild. The main periods of note this spring will be the Spanish Plumes which i expect to occur during the second week of April when i expect temperatures to reach between 23C and 28C and the third week of May when i expect temperatures to reach 24C to 29C.

June

Here is the raw data for June...

June week 1 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

June week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

June week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

June week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

June week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to the fact that there is a negative AO, the Jet Stream will be pushed south due to a trough in the central Atlantic however the Jet Stream will rise northward due to a ridge over eastern Europe resulting in a positive NAO and the mean wind direction being south easterly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June week 2 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will be forced over the top of the Greenland High and into Scandinavia resulting in a sustained northerly and a negative NAO with the mean wind direction being northerly, temperatures will be 1C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be below average.

June week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will be forced over the top of the Greenland High and into Scandinavia resulting in a sustained northerly and a negative NAO with the mean wind direction being northerly, temperatures will be 1C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be below average.

June week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA and will be kept on a southerly track by a Greenland ridge forcing the Jet Stream south due to a negative AO, with a easterly for the British Isles due to a ridge over Scandinavia and a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be average.

CET - 12.1C - 2C below average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - below average