Unusual Winter?

[noggin]

I haven't been logging them, but at a guess I'd say well into the teens. I'd observed more frosts in november than the whole of last winter.

In other words, this winter is shaping up differently, solely due to it's anticyclonic nature, which wasn't a trait of any of the previous 00 winters, hence there is no pattern or trend as yet.

Well, that looks like an improvement. The Winter has shaped up differently and if it is due to it's anticyclonic nature, then we must ask "why has it become anticyclonic?" Answer.......it is because changes are afoot. The trend is definitely there. Yes, even in the snowless wastes of Abingdon. This time next year, we will be that much further on into our colder phase. For phases are what it is all about. IMVHO.

[The Enforcer]

Well, that looks like an improvement. The Winter has shaped up differently and if it is due to it's anticyclonic nature, then we must ask "why has it become anticyclonic?" Answer.......it is because changes are afoot. The trend is definitely there. Yes, even in the snowless wastes of Abingdon. This time next year, we will be that much further on into our colder phase. For phases are what it is all about. IMVHO.

There is no trend at the moment - one winter cannot a trend make.

Equally possible that it's not the beginning of a trend and it's a one-off.

For next winter to create a trend then it too would have to be anticyclonic, dry sunny/frosty periods alternating with gloomy periods and the odd westerly incursion. Overall snowfall below average, even in favoured locations.

Edited January 24, 2006 by The Enforcer

[Great Plum]

Well, here in Reigate, it has generally been a lot colder than last year. I have no weather station but the number of frosts so far this year far outnumber he frosts we had last year...

However, it has been a long time since I have seen settling snow..

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, here in Reigate, it has generally been a lot colder than last year. I have no weather station but the number of frosts so far this year far outnumber he frosts we had last year...

However, it has been a long time since I have seen settling snow..

GP,

Measured cold has many sources, particularly in winter: still, clear air is all that is generally required for frosts. One take on the data you present is simply that this year we have been more influenced by HP than Atlantic mobility. AS I said elsewhere yesterday, perhaps in this thread, this winter it's more a case of "absence of ridiculous mild" than of "presence of intense cold" as the key driver of how winter is turning out.

[drgl]

But last winter there were hardly any frosts - hence why the snow in February failed to stick.

Last winter we were having snow ball fights Christmas day(evening) and walking in the snow Boxing day!! The thing about the UK is it's weather can be VERY local.A couiple of weeks back we had lying snow here,two miles down the road there was barely a dusting! Frosts this year are WELL into double figures,last year we had some but no where near as many,the year before that fewer still. In the late 90's/early 00's we had fewer still. So,the pattern for the last fews year HERE has been a slow increase,much along the lines of the slow decrease in the late 80's and early 90's. It's not my imagination and i really don't care what charts and figures say-working outside tells me what i need to know.I really don't buy this even larger teapot lark-all we can do is wait and see to see who is correct

[Stratos Ferric]

Last winter we were having snow ball fights Christmas day(evening) and walking in the snow Boxing day!! The thing about the UK is it's weather can be VERY local.A couiple of weeks back we had lying snow here,two miles down the road there was barely a dusting! Frosts this year are WELL into double figures,last year we had some but no where near as many,the year before that fewer still. In the late 90's/early 00's we had fewer still. So,the pattern for the last fews year HERE has been a slow increase,much along the lines of the slow decrease in the late 80's and early 90's. It's not my imagination and i really don't care what charts and figures say-working outside tells me what i need to know.I really don't buy this even larger teapot lark-all we can do is wait and see to see who is correct

drgl,

whether or not you buy it, my point remains: air frost is no measure of cold weather. In winter it is a simple function, in the right conditions, of radiation balance.

I have posted several times this year that this winter may indicate a continuation of a trend which suggests the recent significant warming in our winters has stopped. The problem then remains, that we would have to cool quite some way before we could return even to the moderately snowy winters of the mid 90s, let alone the arctic wastes of 79-86.

[drgl]

To me your reply has no logic,if frosts(of any kind) have started making a return that to me means patterns/conditions have changed? That's my experience anyway..........

[Great Plum]

GP,

Measured cold has many sources, particularly in winter: still, clear air is all that is generally required for frosts. One take on the data you present is simply that this year we have been more influenced by HP than Atlantic mobility. AS I said elsewhere yesterday, perhaps in this thread, this winter it's more a case of "absence of ridiculous mild" than of "presence of intense cold" as the key driver of how winter is turning out.

I think we certainly have been influenced by hp rather than Atlantic mobility - perhaps what is more surprising than the number of frosts is the lack of precipitation, be it rain or the white stuff...

[summer blizzard]

In regards to the recent trends, i would say that while the trend may be in place for colder winters it is also there for drier winters, last winter was the eigth driest on record and this January is set to be the fifth driest on record at the moment with the prospect of no precipitation this week, i hate to say this but i actually hope the trend reverses as i am not willing to turn this country into a desert just for colder winters.

[Mondy]

Simply put. What winter?

Not everyone looks for cold spells or snow (although it would be nice). Whatever happened to the good 'ole

January gales/storms? We're usually always guaranteed a blow of some kind. This January...one which clipped the far north and west, and generally blustery for a few more of us further south. That was it!

Frosts, yeah, there's been some. Mainly Novemember. Reached a mind-boggling -8C one night here - hardly winter conditions. Snow - less than a cup full. Ice - a couple of days. I could go on.

Now we have a bloody great HP about to sink over us.

Think i'll go and mow the grass.

[Dave J]

What winter .. ?

[Mondy]

Yes..it must be nice to own a snow machine!

[kold weather]

Well its been abit of a odd winter because you've got abit of stalemate with the UK left somewhat in the middle.

You've got some strong powerful blocking still present to our north-east this winter but equally to counter this we've had a pretty powerful jet stream. As a result what we see is neither mild nor cold being able to hang on for very long but also very little, if any meridional set-ups so far as a result.

In the end what you think of this winter will come from your local area, if your in Scotland i don't think people will be greatly impressed, neither will those in N.England but for the south, esp the south-east and East Anglia the main backing would go with it being a decent winter.

[Dave J]

Well its been abit of a odd winter because you've got abit of stalemate with the UK left somewhat in the middle.

You've got some strong powerful blocking still present to our north-east this winter but equally to counter this we've had a pretty powerful jet stream. As a result what we see is neither mild nor cold being able to hang on for very long but also very little, if any meridional set-ups so far as a result.

In the end what you think of this winter will come from your local area, if your in Scotland i don't think people will be greatly impressed, neither will those in N.England but for the south, esp the south-east and East Anglia the main backing would go with it being a decent winter.

For much of Europe its been a fairly cold and snowy winter- we in the UK as you say along with perhaps W Norway been on the edge of the anticyclone which has sometimes allowed mild, mobile weather to stream across us - but never for very long or very far into Europe (unlike recent winters). Sometimes the cold has penetrated as far west as the UK (late December, and this week) but for those outside of NE England, E England, Kent and not forgetting N Ireland, W Wales and Southwest England who had a great snow event in November (20cm's of snow up on Bodmin Moor) its been a relatively dull, cold and snow free winter so far.

[Tucco]

but for those outside of NE England, E England, Kent and not forgetting N Ireland,

Its been a poor winter so far in NE England in terms of snow.

Mark

Barnard Castle,Co Durham

[summer blizzard]

I must agree with you, while it has been cold we have only had four days of snow although in my opinion it is the best winter since 2001.

[Slinky]

I must agree with you, while it has been cold we have only had four days of snow although in my opinion it is the best winter since 2001.

I have to concur, this winter for my area (to date) has been very encouraging! we had more frosts in Nov then we did in the whole of last winter! While the white stuff has been sparse compared to a decade ago, the snow at the end of December saw us get a good covering, the best we have had here for years!

I am certainly enjoying the cold and frosts

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes..it must be nice to own a snow machine!

...or be in the North East of England, or East Anglia, or around Hastings, during the brief but potent NE'ly at the end of December 2005!

[Stratos Ferric]

...or it would seem the environs of Leeds. One of our number therefrom includes a footer stating 9cm as the heaviest fall of the year to date. Impressive stuff, and highly localised I think.

[Timmytour]

I'm pleased to see a good few frosts this year, especially as they improve the quality of the brussel sprouts, my favourite vegetable

There's been a lot of unfulfilled optimism about this winter to date, but to be hoest I'd take that any day over those winters where its wet and 10C and you know it's not worth looking at the weather forecast for the next week.

The promise of a good cold snowy spell has never been too far away, even if the promises have never delivered. And he optimism remains.

However

For all the hopes that I have for February, I've seen on a couple of runs certain scenarios which suggest that there could be a couple of extremely mild days, even warm, with the threat of getting a cover of sand rather than snow.

[Optimus Prime]

Not unusual. Just a little frostier and colder than normal. Although probably fairly mild compared to the running 1961-1990 average.

Some very frosty continues nights and days in November (counted 14) with more frosts in December (13) but only about 4 frosts so far this January. A very frosty November, Frosty December and very un-frosty January. I would need to record at least 11 frosts during February for me to be satisfied with my frost count.

That would make 42 frosts this winter, if I record no more frosts this month and 11 frosts for February. Or more frosts this month and just 5 frosts next month. Now that's not bad going compared to the measly frosts in 2004 and 2003.

[reef]

Its funny how everyone seems to be mentioning November, which is a testament to how poor this winter has been so far. Remember, regardless of how cold and snowy November was at the end for some, it is not a winter month. Similar to saying that a summer has been a fantastic one after a hot May and average June/July/August.

[nick sussex]

In this part of the world the lack of any real mild air has been quite noticeable with us alternating between average to cold, the lack of rainfall is however a big worry but i'm sure the uk will find a way to sort that out with probably a wet spring.

Unfortunately even though as a whole we have had many more cold spells than recent winters snow has been very rare, i think alot of people would take an overall above average winter as long as there are some snowy spells within this. The snow that some places saw after xmas really hides the fact that its been for many a winter that has flatlined in terms of excitement.

From my own perspective I have enjoyed the abundance of frost and really quite low night time temps and beautiful sunny days as I really don't like wind and rain, so for me I've enjoyed this winter so far. Snow wise its been pretty poor with just a few dustings and only 4 days of snow falling.

This winter so far IMO could be summed up in terms of snow,synoptically promised much but failed to deliver and so in that degree its not unusual, synoptically however and for overall cold it has been different from recent winters.

Edited January 25, 2006 by nick sussex

[North-Easterly Blast]

This winter looks set to be a rerun of 1991-92 - a high pessure area was slap bang over the UK all winter! It was a snowless winter for most of the country, and among the most snowless on record. I just hate winters where high pressure sits over the UK all winter - OK it is not that mild but useless for snowfall, and really cold air cannot flow across the UK with a high pressure slap bang over it. Winters like this and 1991-92 are the next most awful winters for me after mild routs like 88-89, 89-90, 74-75, 97-98, Jan/Feb 2002 etc. The only other winter like 91-92 I can think of was 1963-64, although was coldish (3.5).

This winter is just turning into a 1991-92 disaster. Dec 05 and Jan 06 have been just like that winter.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

this winter is very unusual indeed. firstly it has been colder than the past decade or so and unlike the past 15 years we havmnt had alot of snow because in previous years we normally get one cold snap from the north bringing bands of snow that would get 6-10 inches. awell hopefully february or next winter will bring more cold and snow